Message from discussion Kerry's Lead of a Week Ago All Gone Now, Thanks to the Iraq prisoner scandal
From: Matty <kaiwa...@yahoo.com.au>
Subject: Re: Kerry's Lead of a Week Ago All Gone Now, Thanks to the Iraq prisoner
Date: Fri, 14 May 2004 15:48:27 +1000
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George Leroy Tyrebiter, Jr. wrote:
> On Thu, 13 May 2004 18:01:47 GMT, UnfitKerry <T_Hi...@BagsOMoney.com>
>>As recently as May 5, John Kerry had a 4-point lead over Bush, 47-43.
>>Now, after a week of the Iraq prisoner scandal, Kerry's lead over Bush
>>has evaporated, and the two men are tied, 46-46.
> You forgot to correct for his bias. His last poll in 2000 had Bush
> ahead by nine points. Thus is you take the 46 he has for Bush now, and
> subtract the 9.5 Rasmussen correction, that gives Bush 35.5.
> Kerry more than fifty.
> Mr Rasmussen has probably "corrected" his models since his disastrous
> Portrait of America 2000 year.
> But we really don't have any evidence at all as to whether he's going
> to get it right this year. He polls with automatic phones, not humans,
> and that is not a method we have much experience with. Though Survey
> of America seems to be doing well with it.
> But Rasmussen? Not a proven pollster. We really can't give all that
> much weight to what he says, in that we have never tested his current
> model before.
> I tihnk I'll stick with the proven established polls - Gallup, Zogby,
> CBS, Harris. Etc.
> And with those, Kerry is doing much better, for this early in the
> campaign, than challengers normally do. You have to say that if you
> want to consider polls this early, Kerry is the favorite.
> But what evidence do we have that polls at this stage are good
> predictors of the final vote? I'm not aware of any good evidence.
> So I am not ready to say that Kerry is more likely to win than Bush
> We should stick to something other than our own opinion, and we just
> don't have that.
Maybe if we're lucky, there will be a religious nut who will stand as an
independent and be a BBQ stopper for the Republican party. Nothing would
please me more than seeing the Republican party split into factions resulting
in around 35% support for GWB.
My blog: http://kaiwai.blogspot.com/
"You don't have to live next to me, Just give me my
equality" - Nina Simone (Mississippi Goddam)
"Science without religion is lame, religion without
science is blind." - Albert Einstein
"You don't need to be 'straight' to fight and die
for your country. You just need to
shoot straight." - Barry Goldwater, (Ret. AF general)