'RATSmack 2012 - Lukewarm Jobs Report Awaits Americans as Epic 'RAT WhoopAss Nears

[patriotgames@democrathallofshame.com http://www.democrathallofshame.com]

http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/jobs-employment-election-obama/2012/10/30/id/462124

Lukewarm Jobs Report Awaits Americans as Election Nears
Tuesday, 30 Oct 2012

U.S. job growth likely picked up in October, but not enough to prevent
the unemployment rate from rising off a near four-year low, although
that might not matter for next week's presidential election.

Coming four days ahead of the tight contest, the closely watched
employment report on Friday is not expected to shift much from its
recent pattern, limiting its impact on voters.

Employers are expected to have added 125,000 jobs to their payrolls in
October, up from 114,000 in September, according to a Reuters survey
of economists. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up a tenth of
a percentage point to 7.9 percent after a dramatic 0.3 percentage
point fall in September.

"Most people have an impression of the economy and their minds won't
be changed at this late stage. Only a dramatic headline on either
number in either direction might move the dial a bit more," said Harry
Holzer, a public policy professor at Georgetown University in
Washington.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll showed the race between
President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney as a
virtual dead heat just a week before the Nov. 6 vote.

The Labor Department said it intended to release the October jobs data
on Friday at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT), as scheduled, even though monster
storm Sandy forced the government to shut down for two days.

Jobs growth has fizzled since accelerating in the first two months of
this year. Economists point to fears over Europe's debt crisis, the
prospect for a sharp tightening of the U.S. government's budget and a
lack of clarity over financial and health care regulation.

"Consumers are spending, but businesses are cautious about hiring
because there is a lot of uncertainty related to the election, the
fiscal cliff and regulations," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics
professor at California State University Channel Islands in Camarillo,
California.

The fiscal-cliff -- automatic tax hikes and government spending cuts
that will suck about $600 billion out of the economy next year if
Congress fails to act -- led businesses to cut spending in the third
quarter for the first time in 1-1/2 years.

Although the economy has created more than 4 million jobs since the
2007-2009 recession ended, employment remains about 4.5 million jobs
short of where it stood when the downturn started.

Persistently weak labor market conditions forced the Federal Reserve
in September to launch a program to buy $40 billion worth of
mortgage-backed securities every month until there is a sustained
improvement in the labor market. It hopes the purchases will drive
down borrowing costs.

October's projected job gains are within the range usually considered
sufficient to keep the unemployment rate steady. However, the jobless
rate, which in September fell below 8 percent for the first time since
Obama took office, is expected to rise.

The household survey from which it is derived can be volatile
month-to-month. In September, it showed employment increased by
873,000 -- the first rise in three months and the biggest since June
1983. That contrasted with the much more-subdued gains found by the
larger survey of employers.

Economists do not expect the household survey to show such out-sized
gains for October and anticipate any increase will be more than offset
by a rise in the number of Americans entering the labor force to look
for work.

While the composition of job growth from the employer survey is most
likely to mirror September's, manufacturing employment is expected to
snap back after falling for two straight months. Government payrolls
are seen falling after three straight months of gains.

Temporary help jobs, often seen as a harbinger for permanent hiring,
are expected to rebound as businesses gear up for the holiday season.
While businesses are hunkering down, households appear little troubled
by the impending fiscal cliff, with consumer confidence at five-year
highs.

Construction employment is expected to show a fifth straight month of
jobs gains, thanks to a pick up in home building activity, which has
been supported by the Fed's ultra easy monetary policy stance.

With the overall pace of job growth still subdued, average hourly
earnings are expected to rise a tepid 0.2 percent after gaining 0.3
percent the prior month. The average workweek is seen holding steady
at 34.5 hours.

"This indicates that economic growth is pretty minimal and modest,"
said Sohn.


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