'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists say
Captain Compassion
http://www.washington.edu/newsroom/news/2003archive/01-03archive/k011303a.html
In its 4.5 billion years, Earth has evolved from its hot, violent
birth to the celebrated watery blue planet that stands out in pictures
from space. But in a new book, two noted University of Washington
astrobiologists say the planet already has begun the long process of
devolving into a burned-out cinder, eventually to be swallowed by the
sun.
By their reckoning, Earth's "day in the sun" has reached 4:30 a.m.,
corresponding to its 4.5 billion-year age. By 5 a.m., the 1
billion-year reign of animals and plants will come to an end. At 8
a.m. the oceans will vaporize. At noon – after 12 billion years – the
ever-expanding sun, transformed into a red giant, will engulf the
planet, melting away any evidence it ever existed and sending
molecules and atoms that once were Earth floating off into space.
"The disappearance of our planet is still 7.5 billion years away, but
people really should consider the fate of our world and have a
realistic understanding of where we are going," said UW astrophysicist
Donald Brownlee. "We live in a fabulous place at a fabulous time. It's
a healthy thing for people to realize what a treasure this is in space
and time, and fully appreciate and protect their environment as much
as possible."
In "The Life and Death of Planet Earth," Brownlee and UW
paleontologist Peter Ward use current scientific understanding of
planets and stars, as well as the parameters of life, to provide a
glimpse of the second half of life on Earth and what comes after.
The book, a sort of biography of our planet, is being published today
by Times Books, a division of Henry Holt and Co. It is a sequel to
Ward and Brownlee's best-selling and much-discussed book "Rare Earth,"
in which they put forth the hypothesis that simple life is relatively
common in the universe but complex, Earth-like life is exceedingly
rare.
"The Life and Death of Planet Earth" explains how the myriad life on
Earth today was preceded by a long period of microbial dominance, and
the authors contend that complex life eventually will disappear and be
succeeded again by a period of only microbial life. They say that
higher life will be removed much as it came into being, ecosystem by
ecosystem. Aspects of the planet's past, such as numbingly cold ice
ages, will be relived in the period of devolution.
"If we do begin to slide into the next glacial cycle, there probably
are grand, planetary-scale engineering projects that might stop or
lessen the effects," Ward said.
"The big unknowns are whether we can afford to do such projects and
would we really know what to do. If the planet was cooling, we could,
in principle, begin painting the surface black to collect more heat.
Could we afford it? And what would be the many possible ramifications
of a planet suddenly covered in black paint? Any planetary remediation
project would always run the risk of making things worse."
Eventually, though, scorching heat will drive land creatures to the
sea for respite. Those that can adapt will survive for a time, but
eventually the oceans will warm too much for the complex life forms to
continue.
"The last life may look much like the first life – a single-celled
bacterium, survivor and descendant of all that came before," the
authors write. Finally, even the surviving microbes "will be seared
out of existence."
The prospects of humans surviving by moving to some other habitable
planet or moon aren't good, Brownlee and Ward contend, because even if
such a place were found, getting there would be a huge obstacle.
Various probes sent into space could survive Earth's demise, and just
a few grams of material could arguably carry a DNA sample from every
human, they say, but it's not likely the human species itself will
survive. Long before the planet's final end, life will become quite
challenging, and finally impossible, for humans.
As the sun gets hotter and grows in size, it will envelop Mercury and
Venus. It is possible it will stop just short of Earth, the authors
say, but the conditions still would make this a most-inhospitable
planet. More likely, though, the sun will consume Earth as well,
severing all the chemical bonds between molecules and sending its
individual atoms out into space, perhaps eventually to form new
planets. That would leave Mars as the nearest planet to the sun, and
on Mars the fading sun's glow would be like that of Earth's moon.
That end is still some 7.5 billion years distant, but by then Earth
will have faced a variety of "ends" along the way, the authors say.
The last dinosaur perished long ago. Still to come are the last
elephant, the last tree, the last flower, the last glacier, the last
snowflake, the last ocean, the last life.
"The Life and Death of Planet Earth" is like its predecessor, "Rare
Earth," in that the authors collected and distilled some of the latest
scientific ideas about the Earth's place in the universe, Brownlee
said. He hopes the new book, like "Rare Earth," will spark widespread
discussion, and give people a fundamental and realistic view of the
past and future of their planet.
"It's a healthy thing to think of the place of Earth among the other
planets, and its place in the sun. The sun gave life and ultimately it
will bring death."
--
"The president and I cannot prevent certain politicians from losing
their memory, or their backbone, but we're not going to sit by and
let them rewrite history." -- Dick Cheney 11/16/2005
"War is God's way of teaching Americans geography" -- Ambrose Bierce
"America is a vast conspiracy to make you happy." -- John Updike
"Long term commitment in relationships is only necessary because it takes
so damn long to raise children. Marriage may well be some kind of trick
to keep the males around beyond sexual satiation." -- Captain Compassion
"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant
Joseph R. Darancette
dar...@NOSPAMverizon.net
Scotius
<dar...@NOSPAMverizon.net> wrote:
>'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists say
>http://www.washington.edu/newsroom/news/2003archive/01-03archive/k011303a.html
>
>In its 4.5 billion years, Earth has evolved from its hot, violent
>birth to the celebrated watery blue planet that stands out in pictures
>from space. But in a new book, two noted University of Washington
>astrobiologists say the planet already has begun the long process of
>devolving into a burned-out cinder, eventually to be swallowed by the
>sun.
>
>By their reckoning, Earth's "day in the sun" has reached 4:30 a.m.,
>corresponding to its 4.5 billion-year age.
That's okay. It's winter now, and the sun doesn't rise until
about 8:00ish, so I think we're A-Okay for a while, at least as far as
the sun turning into a giant searing orb is concerned.
>by 5 a.m., the 1
>billion-year reign of animals and plants will come to an end. At 8
>a.m. the oceans will vaporize. At noon – after 12 billion years – the
>ever-expanding sun, transformed into a red giant, will engulf the
>planet, melting away any evidence it ever existed and sending
>molecules and atoms that once were Earth floating off into space.
>
>"The disappearance of our planet is still 7.5 billion years away, but
>people really should consider the fate of our world and have a
>realistic understanding of where we are going," said UW astrophysicist
>Donald Brownlee.
Aha! I knew they had giant rocket engines to push us away! I
just knew it!
>"We live in a fabulous place at a fabulous time. It's
>a healthy thing for people to realize what a treasure this is in space
>and time, and fully appreciate and protect their environment as much
>as possible."
>
>In "The Life and Death of Planet Earth," Brownlee and UW
>paleontologist Peter Ward use current scientific understanding of
>planets and stars, as well as the parameters of life, to provide a
>glimpse of the second half of life on Earth and what comes after.
>
>The book, a sort of biography of our planet, is being published today
>by Times Books, a division of Henry Holt and Co. It is a sequel to
>Ward and Brownlee's best-selling and much-discussed book "Rare Earth,"
>in which they put forth the hypothesis that simple life is relatively
>common in the universe but complex, Earth-like life is exceedingly
>rare.
>
>"The Life and Death of Planet Earth" explains how the myriad life on
>Earth today was preceded by a long period of microbial dominance, and
>the authors contend that complex life eventually will disappear and be
>succeeded again by a period of only microbial life. They say that
>higher life will be removed much as it came into being, ecosystem by
>ecosystem. Aspects of the planet's past, such as numbingly cold ice
>ages, will be relived in the period of devolution.
>
>"If we do begin to slide into the next glacial cycle, there probably
>are grand, planetary-scale engineering projects that might stop or
>lessen the effects," Ward said.
Yeah, like that billion degree expanding sun. Whoops! Did we
do that? I didn't think we did that.
>
>"The big unknowns are whether we can afford to do such projects and
>would we really know what to do. If the planet was cooling, we could,
>in principle, begin painting the surface black to collect more heat.
I spilled some tar the other day. My Dad told me to clean it
up, since it was on the driveway, but I told him I was just doing what
I could to prevent global cooling. Would you believe he didn't believe
me?
>Could we afford it?
As long as we're using black paint, and not the black ink in
printer cartridges, yes, I think we could.
>And what would be the many possible ramifications
>of a planet suddenly covered in black paint?
Everything would be difficult to see at night, and the stuff
that was already painted black would be like, so yesterday man.
>Any planetary remediation
>project would always run the risk of making things worse."
>
>Eventually, though, scorching heat will drive land creatures to the
>sea for respite. Those that can adapt will survive for a time, but
>eventually the oceans will warm too much for the complex life forms to
>continue.
Yeah, but it's a jacuzzi for the rest of us!
>
>"The last life may look much like the first life – a single-celled
>bacterium, survivor and descendant of all that came before," the
>authors write. Finally, even the surviving microbes "will be seared
>out of existence."
Not true. If it was, you couldn't get food poisoning from
eating a well cooked steak, but everyone knows you can.
>
>The prospects of humans surviving by moving to some other habitable
>planet or moon aren't good, Brownlee and Ward contend, because even if
>such a place were found, getting there would be a huge obstacle.
>Various probes sent into space could survive Earth's demise, and just
>a few grams of material could arguably carry a DNA sample from every
>human, they say, but it's not likely the human species itself will
>survive.
When I'm as rich as Bill Gates, I'll have my own escape
vessel.
>Long before the planet's final end, life will become quite
>challenging, and finally impossible, for humans.
>
>As the sun gets hotter and grows in size, it will envelop Mercury and
>Venus. It is possible it will stop just short of Earth, the authors
>say, but the conditions still would make this a most-inhospitable
>planet. More likely, though, the sun will consume Earth as well,
>severing all the chemical bonds between molecules and sending its
>individual atoms out into space, perhaps eventually to form new
>planets. That would leave Mars as the nearest planet to the sun, and
>on Mars the fading sun's glow would be like that of Earth's moon.
>
>That end is still some 7.5 billion years distant,
...and here I've done all this mental preparing. Don't I feel
the fool?
>but by then Earth
>will have faced a variety of "ends" along the way, the authors say.
>The last dinosaur perished long ago.
The Weekly World News says there are still some out there. Who
you gonna believe?
>Still to come are the last
>elephant, the last tree, the last flower, the last glacier, the last
>snowflake, the last ocean, the last life.
>
>"The Life and Death of Planet Earth" is like its predecessor, "Rare
>Earth," in that the authors collected and distilled some of the latest
>scientific ideas about the Earth's place in the universe, Brownlee
>said. He hopes the new book, like "Rare Earth," will spark widespread
>discussion, and give people a fundamental and realistic view of the
>past and future of their planet.
>
>"It's a healthy thing to think of the place of Earth among the other
>planets, and its place in the sun. The sun gave life and ultimately it
>will bring death."
There are any number of things that could wipe out life on
Earth long before that happens, and conversely, the idea that the sun
will necessarily burn itself out within that time is a theory, and as
such is not demonstratably provable. I don't doubt that eventually the
sun would burn itself out, but it may not take 7.5 billion years, or
it may take much more. Who can say for sure? In any case, I'm sure
that in 7.5 billion years, I won't be here to see it, so it can't be
all that bad.