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Fox News exit poll summary: Obama's key groups made the difference
November 07, 2012
An examination of the exit polls sheds light on how a president facing
unemployment near 8 percent, debt topping $16 trillion and mounting
questions over the Libya terror attack was able to win a second term
in office.
Obama’s win Tuesday night came from a strong showing among core
Democratic constituencies, being more likeable than his opponent, and
an economy that voters felt is doing well-enough to give him another
four years. Also, the president’s response to Hurricane Sandy in the
final days of the campaign was an important factor to many voters.
Obama’s key groups made the difference -- both in their makeup of the
electorate and, for the most part, their strength of support for him.
Non-whites made up 28 percent of the electorate, up a bit from 27
percent in 2008. This group largely backed Obama: 71 percent of
Hispanics (it was 67 percent last time), and 93 percent of blacks
(down a touch from 95 percent).
Republican challenger Mitt Romney won among white voters by 20
percentage points. That’s up from John McCain’s edge of +12 points in
2008. In addition, the share of votes cast by whites was lower (72
percent) than it has been going back to at least 1992.
Click to read the exit polls.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-exit-poll?intcmp=related
Young voters were important to giving Obama his first term. Voters
under age 30 showed up again this time: They represented 19 percent
of all voters, one point higher than the 18 percent in 2008. Even so,
they didn’t back him as strongly this time: 60 percent -- down six
points.
National
Young Voters
Obama 60%
Romney 37%
Seniors backed Romney by 56-44 percent, mostly unchanged from 2008.
Meanwhile, more Democrats than Republicans voted, 38-32 percent. In
2008, Democrats also outnumbered Republicans by 39-32 percent.
Almost all Democrats supported the president (92 percent). That
support was equaled among Republicans for Romney (93 percent).
Forty-five percent of independents backed Obama, down from 52 percent
last time. Half of this swing group preferred Romney (49 percent).
Marital status was a more significant factor than gender this year.
Women, a traditional Democratic voting group, backed Obama by 11
points -- about the same as by 13 points in 2008. Even so, married
women backed Romney by 7 points (an improvement from McCain’s +3
showing).
Men backed Romney (52-45 percent), and married men backed him by an
even wider margin (60-38 percent).
Romney was successful in energizing his base: conservatives accounted
for 35 percent of all voters today, one-point higher than in 2008. And
he captured 82 percent of them (McCain got 78 percent). White
born-again Christians made up 26 percent of the voters today and 78
percent favored Romney (for McCain it was 74 percent).
In addition, white Catholics went for Romney by a margin of 59-40
percent. This is a group that has historically backed the winner.
About four voters in 10 say Obama’s response to Hurricane Sandy was
important to their vote (42 percent), and they backed the president by
a better than two-to-one margin. Fifteen percent said it was the
“most important” factor in their vote.
Mood of the Country
Obama’s victory comes despite voter dissatisfaction with how things
are going in the country, mediocre economic ratings and a majority
opposing his health care plan.
Less than half of voters think the country is headed in the right
direction (46 percent). Fifty-two percent say things are going in the
wrong direction. Still, that’s an improvement from the 75 percent who
thought so in 2008.
National
Direction of the Country
Right Direction 46%
Wrong Track 52%
For reference, when former President George W. Bush won re-election in
2004, it was 49 percent right direction and 46 percent wrong track.
Voters who said the country is on the right track went for Obama (93-6
percent), while those who said things are going in the wrong direction
went solidly for Romney (84-13 percent).
Overall, 23 percent rate the condition of the nation’s economy
positively (2 percent “excellent” and 21 percent “good”). That’s
three times as many as the 7 percent who rated it positively in 2008.
Fully 77 percent of voters gave a gloomier assessment (45 percent “not
so good” and 31 percent “poor”).
Almost all Republicans (96 percent) and most independents (80 percent)
gave the economy a thumbs-down, as did 58 percent of Democrats.
Voters are also divided over whether the economy is getting better or
worse (39-30 percent).
Obama benefited from more voters blaming Bush (53 percent) than him
(38 percent) for current economic conditions.
National
Blame For Current
Economic Problems
Obama 38%
Bush 53%
Twenty-five percent said they are better off today than four years ago
-- almost identical to the 24 percent who felt that way in 2008. More
-- 33 percent -- said they are worse off now. Another 41 percent say
there has been no change in their family’s financial situation.
Most of those saying they are better off today voted to re-elect the
president (84-15 percent). Those who are worse off sided with Romney
by 80-18 percent.
Results on the role of government favored Romney. Fifty-one percent
said they prefer smaller government with fewer services, while 43
percent prefer larger government.
These divided views translate into clear vote preferences: voters who
want the government to do less backed Romney by a whopping 50-point
margin, and those that want it to do more went for Obama by 65 points.
A 54-percent majority approves of President Obama’s job performance,
while 45 percent disapprove. Almost all of those who approve voted
for him today (89 percent), just as those that disapprove backed his
challenger (94 percent).
In addition, 19 percent of voters felt “angry” about the Obama
administration and 30 percent were “dissatisfied but not angry.” At
the other end of the spectrum 24 percent felt “satisfied, but not
enthusiastic,” and 25 percent felt “enthusiastic.”
On the Issues
There’s no doubt the economy is the top issue for voters -- here’s
what they say is the biggest economic problem they’re personally
facing. Voters saying unemployment is the biggest problem sided with
Romney. Those who say rising prices go to Obama.
National
Most Important Economic Issue
Unemployment 38%
Rising Prices 37%
Taxes 14%
Housing Market 8%
Romney had a one-point edge on doing a better job on the economy and
likewise on the federal budget deficit (+2).
More voters trust Obama than Romney to handle an international crisis
(+7 points) and think he would better handle Medicare (+8 points).
Nearly half of voters -- 49 percent -- think all or part of Obama’s
health care law should be repealed -- something Romney had said he
would do. Forty-four percent want to keep or expand the law.
A plurality agrees with Obama on what should happen with income tax
rates: 47 percent think taxes should increase only on income over
$250,000. Some 13 percent say taxes should increase on everyone,
while 35 percent don’t think anybody’s taxes should increase.
The Candidates
More voters like Obama: 53 percent have a favorable opinion of him,
while 47 percent have a positive view of Romney.
National
Opinion of Obama
Favorable 53%
Unfavorable 46
National
Opinion of Romney
Favorable 47%
Unfavorable 50%
And by 53-43 percent voters think Obama is “in touch” with people like
them.
National
In Touch With People Like You
Obama is 53%
Romney is 43%
People looking for empathy in a candidate mostly back Obama (81-18
percent). Those looking for a candidate who shares their values went
for Romney (55-42 percent), as did those who wanted someone with a
vision for the future (54-45 percent).
Finally, Obama successfully painted Romney as someone whose policies
would favor the rich -- 53 percent of voters thought that. Almost all
voters think Obama’s policies favor the middle class (44 percent) or
poor (31 percent).
COLORADO
President Obama won Colorado, a battleground state that he also won in
2008, with the help of Hispanics and independents.
Colorado has a large Hispanic population -- the state ranks sixth in
the United States. Hispanics gave the president more support than in
2008 when he received 61 percent to McCain’s 38 percent.
Colorado
Hispanics
Obama 74%
Romney 25%
White evangelicals also put their support behind the Republican
candidate. Colorado is home to James Dobson one of the most
influential spokesmen for the conservative movement and its social
positions behind the white evangelical movement in the United States.
In 2008, white evangelicals supported the Republican candidate John
McCain by 76 percent to Obama with 23 percent.
Colorado
Evangelicals
Obama 23%
Romney 74%
In 2008, independents in Colorado gave their support to Obama by 54 to
44 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain. Tonight, that support
dropped significantly -- by 11 points -- and Mitt Romney won that
important group.
Colorado
Independents
Obama 43%
Romney 50%
Obama won with the support of Colorado’s voters who identified
themselves as moderates. But his support with this group was down
significantly from 2008. Obama won moderates in his first bid for the
White House 63 percent to 34 percent for Senator McCain.
Colorado
Moderates
Obama 50%
Romney 45%
FLORIDA
The race is tight in Florida and a winner had not been called as of
this writing. Unemployment and home foreclosure rates are high there,
but half the voters blame George W. Bush for current economic
problems.
Florida
Blame For Current
Economic Problems
Obama 42%
Bush 51%
Independents were 33 percent of the voters in Florida. They split 50
percent for Obama, 48 percent for Romney. In 2008, independents
favored Obama 52 percent to 45 percent, giving him a 7 percentage
point advantage.
Florida
Independents
Obama 50%
Romney 48%
Almost one-in-five (17%) Floridian voters is of Hispanic descent. But
in Florida there's a sizeable Cuban-American population -- distinct
from other parts of the country. They went slightly for Romney.
Florida
Cuban-American Voters
Obama 47%
Romney 50%
However Hispanics of non-Cuban descent went for Obama.
Florida
Non-Cuban Hispanic Voters
Obama 68%
Romney 32%
Obama did very well among blacks as well. Romney won among white
voters.
Florida
White voters
Obama 38%
Romney 61%
Florida has the highest percentage of seniors of all states. They were
almost one-quarter of all voters. They favored Romney by 16 percentage
points.
Florida
Seniors
Obama 42%
Romney 58%
IOWA
Obama started his presidential career winning the Iowa caucuses in
2008 and he ended his campaign there on Monday night. While Obama won
young voters in most states, here he did okay among seniors as well,
splitting them 50-50 with Romney.
Iowa
Seniors
Obama 50%
Romney 50%
More Iowans describe themselves as moderate than liberal or
conservative. Obama carried moderates easily.
Iowa
Moderates
Obama 63%
Romney 35%
Romney didn’t gain any votes with his position on abortion. A majority
of voters think abortion should be legal. Obama outscored Romney on
being better able to handle the economy, Medicare, energy policy and
being in touch.
OHIO
Since 2004, Ohio has flip-flopped in its support for the presidency
between the Republican and Democratic candidates. In 2008, Obama won
by five points. In 2004, Ohio voters supported the Republican
presidential candidate, George W. Bush, over Democrat John Kerry by
two percentage points. Tonight, Obama carried the state for the
second time.
Ohio voters are more likely to blame the country’s current economic
conditions on former President George W. Bush than Obama. Ohio has an
unemployment rate of seven percent, which is below the national
average of 7.8 percent. It also ranks 10th in foreclosures.
Ohio
Blame For Current
Economic Problems
Obama 40%
Bush 51%
Voters in union households increased their support for the president
by five points (it was 56-43 percent in 2008).
Ohio
Union Households
Obama 61%
Romney 37%
Almost six in 10 Ohio voters approved of the federal bailout of U.S.
automakers. Of those voters who approved of the bailout, 75 percent
supported Obama, while 24 percent went for Romney.
Ohio
U.S. Auto Bailout
Approve 59%
Disapprove 36%
Romney drew a great deal of his support from white men, winning that
group by 62-36 percent. In 2008, the Republican John McCain received
53 percent to 45 percent for Obama.
Ohio
White Men
Obama 36%
Romney 62%
VIRGINIA
In 2008, Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win
Virginia in more than 40 years and tonight, he did it again.
Virginia has fared better than most states in the past four years,
with an unemployment rate at two percentage points below the national
average. Still, Virginia voters said the economy was their top
issue.
Virginia
Top Issue: Economy
Obama 47%
Romney 51%
Goode 1%
Voters who said the economy was the most important issue broke almost
evenly between the two candidates: 47 percent Obama to 51 percent Mitt
Romney -- and 1 percent for Virgil Goode, the Constitution Party
candidate.
Among college educated voters, Obama did well. He won that group in
2008, and this time with an increase in support of two percentage
points.
Virginia
College Graduates
Obama 53%
Romney 46%
Obama’s second win in Virginia was largely due to the support he
received from women and black voters.
Virginia
Women
Obama 54%
Romney 45%
Virginia
Black Voters
Obama 93%
Romney 6%
Independents in 2008 narrowly supported the president. This time they
broke for the Republican candidate.
Virginia
Independents
Obama 43%
Romney 53%
Veterans and active military split their support evenly between the
two candidates.
Virginia
Veterans and Active Military
Obama 49%
Romney 49%
WISCONSIN
Republican vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan is from Wisconsin.
Just over half there have a favorable opinion of him. That wasn't
enough to carry the ticket to victory in a state that last went
Republican in 1984.
Wisconsin
Opinion Of Paul Ryan
Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 43%
Women played an important role in the president’s victory in
Wisconsin. They favored him 57 percent to 42 percent for Romney.
Wisconsin
Women
Obama 57%
Romney 42%
Young voters were another strong group for Obama, splitting 59 percent
to 38 percent for Romney.
Wisconsin
Young voters
Obama 59%
Romney 38%
More than half the voters approved of the federal government’s aid to
U.S. automakers. Those voters strongly backed the president. Those who
disapprove of the auto bailout went for Romney just as strongly.
Wisconsin
U.S. Auto Bailout
Approve 53%
Disapprove 39%
Methodology
Edison Research conducted this exit poll for Fox News and interviewed
26,565 voters as they left randomly selected polling places around the
country.
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