On May 28, 9:22 pm, jim <"sjedgingN0Sp"@m@mwt,net> wrote:
> BeamMeUpScotty wrote:
>
> > > Your socialist beliefs are tiresome. The govt didn't
> > > cause the mortgage crises nor is it capable of fixing
> > > it. The private sector got deep into debt by pursuing
> > > rising assets. But the asset prices were rising only
> > > because of massive influx of new credit created
> > > money.
>
> > Thank you Democrat-Progressives and Obama and Barney Frank and Andrew
> > Cuomo..... your back door welfare plan has failed.
>
> The markets have payed no attention to those clowns.
> it is only you that think they control what people do.
>
>
>
> > > Then when the asset prices fell the private sector
> > > money making machine went into reverse. The last time that
> > > happened was the Great Depression and that took 15 years.
>
> > People don't want to lose money, imagine that.
>
> The housing bubble happened because
> People wanted to make money, imagine that.
>
>
>
> > > This time will be longer because this time the
> > > private debt is much worse.
>
> > It will be longer because of the Government meddling.
>
> It is not going to be over until the private debt
> is reduced. So far Congress has not gotten in the way
> of that happening, but they will.
>
>
>
> > >
http://cdn.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/121911_...
>
> > >> And then in stepped the Fed, and they printed and the treasury
> > >> borrowed.... and they did what with all the trillions they created?
>
> > > The govt created trillions in Treasury notes which
> > > is an asset to the private sector. And you should be
> > > thankful, because without those additional assets
> > > the private sector would now be deep in a depression far
> > > worse than the Great Depression.
>
> > We would already be in recovery rather than still floundering.
>
> Nope that is just your hallucination. When the policies you
> advocate are
> implemented there will be a full blown depression
correct, just look at what the dim bulb conservatives in europe have
done.
can "THE CONSERVATIVE" even comprehend what their policies have done
to europe:nope:they are still trying to discredit keynes/FDR who won
over 80 years ago:)The end of the euro system looks like this/The
periphery suffers ever deeper recessions
i warned conservative cranks in 2008, that austerity will not bolster
a currency or a economy, it will under cut and could destroy a
currency and economy.
why is it so hard for "THE CONSERVATIVE" to understand the basics of
capitalism, it takes wages to spur demand, and profits are the results
of that demand.
it takes money to make money.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-johnson/euro-collapse_b_1549444.html
Simon Johnson and Peter Boone
The End of the Euro: A Survivor's Guide
Posted: 05/27/2012 5:56 pm
In every economic crisis there comes a moment of clarity. In Europe
soon, millions of people will wake up to realize that the euro-as-we-
know-it is gone. Economic chaos awaits them.
To understand why, first strip away your illusions. Europe's crisis to
date is a series of supposedly "decisive" turning points that each
turned out to be just another step down a steep hill. Greece's
upcoming election on June 17 is another such moment. While the so-
called "pro-bailout" forces may prevail in terms of parliamentary
seats, some form of new currency will soon flood the streets of
Athens. It is already nearly impossible to save Greek membership in
the euro area: depositors flee banks, taxpayers delay tax payments,
and companies postpone paying their suppliers -- either because they
can't pay or because they expect soon to be able to pay in cheap
drachma.
The troika of the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank
(ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) has proved unable to
restore the prospect of recovery in Greece, and any new lending
program would run into the same difficulties. In apparent frustration,
the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, remarked last week, "As far as
Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are
trying to escape tax all the time."
Ms. Lagarde's empathy is wearing thin and this is unfortunate --
particularly as the Greek failure mostly demonstrates how wrong a
single currency is for Europe. The Greek backlash reflects the
enormous pain and difficulty that comes with trying to arrange
"internal devaluations" (a euphemism for big wage and spending cuts)
in order to restore competitiveness and repay an excessive debt level.
Faced with five years of recession, more than 20 percent unemployment,
further cuts to come, and a stream of failed promises from politicians
inside and outside the country, a political backlash seems only
natural. With IMF leaders, EC officials, and financial journalists
floating the idea of a "Greek exit" from the euro, who can now invest
in or sign long-term contracts in Greece? Greece's economy can only
get worse.
Some European politicians are now telling us that an orderly exit for
Greece is feasible under current conditions, and Greece will be the
only nation that leaves. They are wrong. Greece's exit is simply
another step in a chain of events that leads towards a chaotic
dissolution of the euro zone.
During the next stage of the crisis, Europe's electorate will be
rudely awakened to the large financial risks which have been foisted
upon them in failed attempts to keep the single currency alive. When
Greece quits the euro, its government will default on approximately
121 billion euros of debt to official creditors, and about 27 billion
euros owed to the IMF.
More importantly and less known to German taxpayers, Greece will also
default on 155 billion euros directly owed to the euro system
(comprised of the ECB and the 17 national central banks in the euro
zone). This includes 110 billion euros provided automatically to
Greece through the Target2 payments system -- which handles
settlements between central banks for countries using the euro. As
depositors and lenders flee Greek banks, someone needs to finance that
capital flight, otherwise Greek banks would fail. This role is taken
on by other euro area central banks, which have quietly lent large
funds, with the balances reported in the Target2 account. The vast
bulk of this lending is, in practice, done by the Bundesbank since
capital flight mostly goes to Germany, although all members of the
euro system share the losses if there are defaults.
The ECB has always vehemently denied that it has taken an excessive
amount of risk despite its increasingly relaxed lending policies. But
between Target2 and direct bond purchases alone, the euro system
claims on troubled periphery countries are now approximately 1.1
trillion euros (this is our estimate based on available official
data). This amounts to over 200 percent of the (broadly defined)
capital of the euro system. No responsible bank would claim these sums
are minor risks to its capital or to taxpayers. These claims also
amount to 43 percent of German Gross Domestic Product, which is now
around 2.57 trillion euros. With Greece proving that all this
financing is deeply risky, the euro system will appear far more
fragile and dangerous to taxpayers and investors.
Jacek Rostowski, the Polish Finance Minister, recently warned that the
calamity of a Greek default is likely to result in a flight from banks
and sovereign debt across the periphery, and that -- to avoid a
greater calamity -- all remaining member nations need to be provided
with unlimited funding for at least 18 months. Mr. Rostowski expresses
concern, however, that the ECB is not prepared to provide such a
firewall, and no other entity has the capacity, legitimacy, or will to
do so.
We agree: Once it dawns on people that the ECB already has a large
amount of credit risk on its books, it seems very unlikely that the
ECB would start providing limitless funds to all other governments
that face pressure from the bond market. The Greek trajectory of
austerity-backlash-default is likely to be repeated elsewhere -- so
why would the Germans want the ECB to double- or quadruple-down by
suddenly ratcheting up loans to everyone else?
The most likely scenario is that the ECB will reluctantly and
haltingly provide funds to other nations -- an on-again, off-again
pattern of support -- and that simply won't be enough to stabilize the
situation. Having seen the destruction of a Greek exit, and knowing
that both the ECB and German taxpayers will not tolerate unlimited
additional losses, investors and depositors will respond by fleeing
banks in other peripheral countries and holding off on investment and
spending.
Capital flight could last for months, leaving banks in the periphery
short of liquidity and forcing them to contract credit -- pushing
their economies into deeper recessions and their voters towards anger.
Even as the ECB refuses to provide large amounts of visible funding,
the automatic mechanics of Europe's payment system will mean the
capital flight from Spain and Italy to German banks is transformed
into larger and larger de facto loans by the Bundesbank to Banca
d'Italia and Banco de Espana -- essentially to the Italian and Spanish
states. German taxpayers will begin to see through this scheme and
become afraid of further losses.
The end of the euro system looks like this. The periphery suffers ever
deeper recessions -- failing to meet targets set by the troika -- and
their public debt burdens will become more obviously unaffordable. The
euro falls significantly against other currencies, but not in a manner
that makes Europe more attractive as a place for investment.
Instead, there will be recognition that the ECB has lost control of
monetary policy, is being forced to create credits to finance capital
flight and prop up troubled sovereigns -- and that those credits may
not get repaid in full. The world will no longer think of the euro as
a safe currency; rather investors will shun bonds from the whole
region, and even Germany may have trouble issuing debt at reasonable
interest rates. Finally, German taxpayers will be suffering
unacceptable inflation and an apparently uncontrollable looming bill
to bail out their euro partners.
The simplest solution will be for Germany itself to leave the euro,
forcing other nations to scramble and follow suit. Germany's guilt
over past conflicts and a fear of losing the benefits from 60 years of
European integration will no doubt postpone the inevitable. But here's
the problem with postponing the inevitable -- when the dam finally
breaks, the consequences will be that much more devastating since the
debts will be larger and the antagonism will be more intense.
A disorderly break-up of the euro area will be far more damaging to
global financial markets than the crisis of 2008. In fall 2008 the
decision was whether or how governments should provide a back-stop to
big banks and the creditors to those banks. Now some European
governments face insolvency themselves. The European economy accounts
for almost 1/3 of world GDP. Total euro sovereign debt outstanding
comprises about $11 trillion, of which at least $4 trillion must be
regarded as a near term risk for restructuring.
Europe's rich capital markets and banking system, including the market
for 185 trillion dollars in outstanding euro-denominated derivative
contracts, will be in turmoil and there will be large scale capital
flight out of Europe into the United States and Asia. Who can be
confident that our global megabanks are truly ready to withstand the
likely losses? It is almost certain that large numbers of pensioners
and households will find their savings are wiped out directly or
inflation erodes what they saved all their lives. The potential for
political turmoil and human hardship is staggering.
For the last three years Europe's politicians have promised to "do
whatever it takes" to save the euro. It is now clear that this promise
is beyond their capacity to keep -- because it requires steps that are
unacceptable to their electorates. No one knows for sure how long they
can delay the complete collapse of the euro, perhaps months or even
several more years, but we are moving steadily to an ugly end.
Whenever nations fail in a crisis, the blame game starts. Some in
Europe and the IMF's leadership are already covering their tracks,
implying that corruption and those "Greeks not paying taxes" caused it
all to fail. This is wrong: the euro system is generating miserable
unemployment and deep recessions in Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal
and Spain also. Despite Troika-sponsored adjustment programs,
conditions continue to worsen in the periphery. We cannot blame
corrupt Greek politicians for all that.
It is time for European and IMF officials, with support from the U.S.
and others, to work on how to dismantle the euro area. While no
dissolution will be truly orderly, there are means to reduce the
chaos. Many technical, legal, and financial market issues could be
worked out in advance. We need plans to deal with: the introduction of
new currencies, multiple sovereign defaults, recapitalization of banks
and insurance groups, and divvying up the assets and liabilities of
the euro system. Some nations will soon need foreign reserves to
backstop their new currencies. Most importantly, Europe needs to
salvage its great achievements, including free trade and labor
mobility across the continent, while extricating itself from this
colossal error of a single currency.
Unfortunately for all of us, our politicians refuse to go there --
they hate to admit their mistakes and past incompetence, and in any
case, the job of coordinating those seventeen discordant nations in
the wind down of this currency regime is, perhaps, beyond reach.
Forget about a rescue in the form of the G20, the G8, the G7, a new
European Union Treasury, the issue of Eurobonds, a large scale debt
mutualization scheme, or any other bedtime story. We are each on our
own.
Simon Johnson is the co-author of White House Burning: The Founding
Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters To You, available from
April 3rd. This post is cross-posted from The Baseline Scenario. Read
more from the Fiscal Affairs series here. Peter Boone is chair of
Effective Intervention, a UK-based charity, an associate at the Centre
for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, and a principal
in Salute Capital Management Limited.