Harry Dope, Your Favorite Retard, Eats Shit Again!!!!!
Nomen Nescio
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/no_20100610_9296.php
Since we last published our rankings, we witnessed momentous primaries, poured over new polling data, and, of course, saw two very important special elections take place. All of those elements have served to shake up our new list.
The GOP lost a big opportunity when it failed to capture the late-Rep. John Murtha's seat, but managed to retain momentum by taking the Hawaii-01 race. After those developments, the party will need a pickup of 39 seats in the House this fall to retake the majority. That's an uphill goal at this point, but not out of the question because the playing field is so large, and getting large by the week. Recent polling in several districts indicates that more and more incumbents -- including Democratic Reps. Chet Edwards of Texas and Allen Boyd of Florida, both entering our rankings for the first time -- are in serious jeopardy of losing their seats.
1. Tennessee-06 Open Seat (D) (Last Ranking: 1) The winner of an increasingly messy GOP race will emerge bloodied, while attorney Brett Carter (D) -- one of the Democratic front-runners -- claims to have raised $100K for his bid in several weeks' time. Still, it would take a monumental collapse for the GOP to botch this pickup opportunity. 2. Louisiana-02 Anh (Joseph) Cao (R) (2) Cao turned in a very disappointing 1stQ fundraising number (just $100K), and had just $300K in the bank. The eventual Democratic nominee may be broke after the party's late-August primary, but Cao will need to upsize his war chest if he's going to overcome the natural Dem proclivity of the district. 3. Louisiana-03 Open Seat (D) (4) When former state Speaker Hunt Downer (R) got into the race, he immediately became the GOP front-runner. And considering the district's very strong GOP roots, that also means he's the big favorite to take the seat in the fall. But the Gulf oil catastrophe will likely affe
ct this CD more than any other, so this race will develop very late. 4. Delaware-At Large Open Seat (R) (3) Republicans endorsed businesswoman/multimillionaire Michele Rollins (R) at the party's convo last month, but she'll still face an expensive primary against developer Glen Urquhart, who will also have the means to get his message out (he has put $565K of his own cash into the race). Rollins is a social moderate, while Urquhart is running to her right on fiscal and social issues. Rollins appears to be the favorite of D.C. Republicans, as she'd have the most cash and best profile to run against former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D), who starts off with the advantage against either GOPer. 5. New York-29 Special Election (D) (5) Gov. David Paterson (D) did Democrats a huge favor by moving the special election back until 11/2, as it gives ex-CIA analyst Matt Zeller (D) a chance to kick his upstart campaign into gear. Ex-Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R) has the big early advantage over Z
eller, who just moved back into the district. 6. Kansas-03 Open Seat (D) (6) State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) appears to be the clear GOP front-runner now that '08 nominee Nick Jordan (R) has withdrawn from the race. Ex-state Rep. Patricia Lightner (R) has tried to consolidate social conservative support behind her bid, but Yoder insists that, after taking some moderate social positions early in his career, he's now fully pro-life. Yoder has a big cash advantage, and, if he wins the nod, would give his party a great chance at picking up this GOP-leaning district. Rep. Dennis Moore's wife, Stephene Moore (D), has been quiet so far -- except to say she supported the health care overhaul, the stimulus and cap-and-trade -- and that should not help her. 7. Arkansas-02 Open Seat (D) (7) Republicans have enjoyed watching what was a very calm Democratic primary campaign quickly devolve into a messy runoff, as state House Speaker Robbie Wills attacked state Sen. Joyce Elliott for her liber
al positions on abortion and school prayer. Elliott's supporters struck back, claiming Wills was using racist language when he said he was more electable than the black state senator. Those attacks didn't work in a Dem runoff, as Elliott held on to win. But we'll almost certainly be seeing them again from ex-U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin's (R) camp, as this CD is getting more GOP by the cycle. Griffin starts the general with the advantage. 8. Hawaii-01 Charles Djou (R) (25) Congrats, Rep. Djou, you've just won a seat that gave President Obama 70 percent in '08. Now you've got to defend that seat, an even tougher chore. The task was made harder a few weeks ago when a potentially bloody Democratic primary was averted: Ex-Rep. Ed Case (D) dropped out, giving way to state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D), who finished a surprising second in the special election. Still, this race is not a Dem slam dunk. After the 5/22 special election, some simply added Case's and Hanabusa's combined total
(almost 60 percent) and came away believing that Djou would've lost had two Dems not split the vote. But Case attracted plenty of indies and moderate Dem voters who are now up for grabs with him out of play. Will Hanabusa -- who leans to the left -- be able to secure those voters? If she can, it's lights out for Djou. 9. Colorado-04 Betsy Markey (D) (9)State Rep. Cory Gardner (R) continues to impress, managing to avert a GOP primary at his party's convo last month by taking 61 percent of the vote. His opponents later united behind his candidacy. Those moves will save Gardner tons of cash for what's expected to be a tough, but winnable, race against Markey. 10. Ohio-01 Steve Driehaus (D) (11) It's been several weeks, and we still haven't seen a rebuttal poll from Driehaus' camp to a survey taken in mid-May for ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (R) that showed the Republican up 53-39 percent over the incumbent. Is it possible they're seeing the same disturbing numbers? 11. New Mexico-02 Ha
rry Teague (D) (8) Things haven't gotten easier for Teague. Despite the fact that neither he nor ex-Rep. Steve Pearce (R) faced primaries, Pearce outraised Teague nearly 4-1 in April, and has almost reached parity with the incumbent in cash on hand. Teague has also been dogged recently by stories that his companies stopped funding health care for employees last year, even though he bragged in his '08 race that he provided this service. Teague continues to fight an uphill battle. 12. Virginia-05 Tom Perriello (D) (14) State Sen. Robert Hurt (R) blew past expectations with his 48 percent primary showing on 6/8. But even more importantly, he's well on his way toward uniting the party following a contentious primary. By late Wednesday, several of his challengers endorsed his campaign, as did conservative hero/ex-Rep. Virgil Goode (R). And GOP runner-up Jim McKelvey, who had promised earlier in the campaign to endorse Tea Partier Jeff Clark (I) in the general if Hurt won the prim
ary, sounded much more vague in a 6/8 statement. If McKelvey comes aboard, it's hard to see how Clark takes significant support from Hurt. If Hurt is successful in bringing the party together, he faces an excellent shot at taking out Perriello. 13. Maryland-01 Frank Kratovil (D) (12) For one of the top GOP pickup opportunities in the country, this race is rather calm. But with '08 nominee/state Sen. Andy Harris (R) hauling in the cash, and with the national environment still scary for Dems, Kratovil won't be able to rest on his laurels in this heavily Republican CD. 14. Mississippi-01 Travis Childers (D) (15) State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) spent nearly $500K in taking 52 percent in his primary last week, but it was certainly worth it, as he managed to avoid a runoff. In this anti-establishment environment, who knows what he'd have had to spend to win a bloody runoff against a Tea Party-fueled challenger. Nunnelee can now focus on Childers, and he indicated in his victory speec
h he'll aim to link the Dem with Nancy Pelosi. That strategy didn't work against Childers in '08, but will a different environment -- and an actual voting record -- change that? 15. Illinois-10 Open Seat (R) (10) Since the primary, it's been rather quiet here, as volatile Senate and gubernatorial campaigns appear to be overshadowing this race. Both Dan Seals (D) and Robert Dold (R) had solid 1stQ fundraising hauls, but '06/'08 nominee Seals had about a $175K lead over businessman Dold. 16. Virginia-02 Glenn Nye (D) (13) Car dealer Scott Rigell (R) managed to avoid being tripped up in his primary, but the questions that faced Hurt before the Va.-05 primary still linger for Rigell. Will disaffected Republicans -- angry at Rigell's $1K donation to Obama in '08 and his support of a Hampton Roads transportation tax increase -- rally behind the nominee? Already there are signs they will, as second-place finisher/Rigell critic Ben Loyola (R) announced he'd back the nominee. Will vo
ters follow, or will they head over to ex-Virginia Beach GOP Chair Kenny Golden's (I) camp? If things develop here as they did in Va.-05, then Rigell has a very good shot against Nye in five months. 17. Ohio-15 Mary Jo Kilroy (D) (16) Kilroy has accused '08 nominee Steve Stivers (R) of moving to the right on social issues since his last bid. But that's something Stivers can afford to do in an off-year, when Ohio State U. students won't turn out in quite the same numbers they did in '08 for the presidential election. That allows Stivers the chance to concentrate more on his base -- a base that was not entirely united in '08, when 27,000 votes went to conservative-leaning indie candidates. If Stivers had given just a fraction of those voters a reason to support him, he'd have won, as he only lost to Kilroy by 2,000 votes. 18. Indiana-08 Open Seat (D) (17) Physician Larry Bucshon (R) had to sweat out a close race on primary night against Tea Partier Kristi Risk (R), but he emer
ged victorious nonetheless. With the contentious primary behind him, and with Risk on board, Bucshon can now focus on uniting the GOP behind defeating state Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D). Van Haaften will be tough to pin down as a typical liberal Dem, but he has a long voting record, and in this environment, in a CD as conservative as this one, any perceived liberal vote will be a serious strike against him. 19. Nevada-03 Dina Titus (D) (--) Recent polls conducted by GOP ex-state Sen. Joe Heck's camp and Mason-Dixon show the challenger with the lead, so there's no doubt Titus is in trouble. The big question for Heck: Can he raise the cash necessary to compete in the expensive Las Vegas media market? Considering the Senate and gubernatorial races will likely overshadow this race, Heck will need to create his own profile here before Titus gets a chance to define him. If he can, he has a great shot at taking out the freshman. 20. Tennessee-08 Open Seat (D) (18) State Sen. Roy Herr
on (D) ranks very high on the list of the most impressive Dem contenders this cycle. He will raise all the funds necessary to compete, and the ex-minister is also not afraid to mix it up. But are those strengths enough to overcome the GOP tilt of the district? So far, Republicans appear intent on helping the Dems' cause. Physician Ron Kirkland has attacked farmer Stephen Fincher for taking millions in farm subsidies in the last decade. Kirkland, meanwhile, has run into trouble for allegedly getting a provision for doctors worked into the stimulus bill. Finally, physician/TV station owner George Flinn plans to spend freely of his own cash in order to win the seat. GOPers have a good shot at a pickup here, and they believe they have plenty of dirt on Herron from his voting record, but Herron's strong candidacy provides them with little room for error. 21. Pennsylvania-07 Open Seat (D) (19) Neither candidate had a primary, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been activity in thi
s race. First, state Rep. Bryan Lentz (D) attempted to get ex-U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan (R) kicked off the ballot due to some invalid signatures. That effort failed. Then, ex-TV newscaster Dawn Stensland (R) improved Meehan's chances of winning the seat when she announced she wouldn't make an indie bid. The bottom line: Meehan's solid position has been tested, but hasn't been affected, in the last several months. 22. North Dakota-At Large Earl Pomeroy (D) (--) It's hard to ignore all the growing evidence that Pomeroy is in real trouble, including very early TV ads and poll numbers showing a steadily increasing lead for GOP state Rep. Rick Berg). Berg's very strong performance in the 6/8 primary (he took 89 percent; even against weak challengers, how many incumbents can say that this cycle?) only reinforced how strong a candidate he is. 23. Florida-08 Alan Grayson (D) (23) GOP ex-state Sen. Dan Webster's surprising entry into the race further jumbled an already fuzzy GOP prima
ry picture. Many expect that he and businessman Bruce O'Donoghue will be the top contenders for the GOP nod, but state Rep. Kurt Kelly believes geography -- he's the only candidate from outside of Orlando -- gives him the opportunity to break through. He also claims he's the only candidate aggressive enough to take on the combative Grayson. The first real test of this newly altered race will come on 7/15, when 2ndQ FEC reports are due. If Webster registers a big number and the others show a dropoff, that'll be a sign that Webster's the 800-pound gorilla in this race. 24. West Virginia-01 Open Seat (D) (21) This race moves down a few notches because Rep. Alan Mollohan's primary loss means Republicans won't have his baggage to kick around. Unlike Mollohan, state Sen. Mike Oliverio (D) will be tougher for Republicans to pin down as a liberal, as he opposes cap-and-trade and expressed doubts about the health care bill. But the seat is still ripe for the taking, and GOPers believ
e Oliverio has taken enough bad votes in his 17-year career to sink him. In one of their first such attacks, they say Oliverio voted in '09 to increase his pay by 33 percent. Businessman/ex-W.V. GOP Chair David McKinley (R) also aided his party's cause when he squeaked by a crowded field to win his primary. McKinley has the funds to make this GOP-leaning district very competitive. 25. Texas-17 Chet Edwards (D) (--)OK, businessman Bill Flores (R) is starting to make believers out of us. It's taken us a little while to come around, especially because Edwards has always managed to wiggle out of tough races in the past, and he appears to be doing everything right this cycle. But Flores' new poll -- he leads Edwards 53-41 percent -- convinced us that the GOPer can really make this happen. Edwards may be a survivor, but is it too much to ask him to defeat a well-funded challenger, in a horrendous environment, and in the 19th-most Republican seat in the country (according to the Co
ok PVI)? 26. Florida-24 Suzanne Kosmas (D) (24) There's no question that Kosmas is vulnerable, but all three GOP candidates here have problems. Ex-Winter Park Commis. Karen Diebel has attacked ex-Ruth's Chris CEO Craig Miller for being soft on immigration, a charge that Miller denies. Meanwhile, state Rep. Sandy Adams and Diebel have fundraising problems. And even grassroots GOPers -- like RedState's Erick Erickson -- have questions about Diebel's past. Will one of these candidates get their act together by primary day? 27. Florida-02 Allen Boyd (D) (--) It wasn't always a given that Boyd would face a tough re-election fight this year; in fact, no top-tier Republicans stepped up to run against him. But the party apparently doesn't need a first-rate challenger, as funeral home owner Steve Southerland (R) released a poll from mid-April showing him with a double-digit lead over Boyd. Just as telling: Boyd has yet to refute those results with a survey of his own. While this is a
bad sign for Boyd, it's not the only one. He knows he's vulnerable and has been airing TV ads for months in an attempt to boost his image. It has not helped matters that he voted for the health care law. Alone, that would be a treacherous vote in such a GOP-leaning CD. But worse, the bill included education loan provisions that led to the cutting of 700 jobs at a local Sallie Mae facility. And before Boyd can even think about Republican challengers, he must first defeat underfunded state Sen. Al Lawson (D). Things are not looking good for Boyd. 28. Michigan-01 Open Seat (D) (--) This race is just beginning to shape up, but it's a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP. Realizing that the party will have difficulty in holding the seat, Dems rallied behind state Sen. Gary McDowell (D), who faces no primary opposition. Republicans, meanwhile, will have a potentially messy six-way affair in what's shaping up to be a grassroots vs. establishment battle between physician Dan Benish
ek and state Sen. Jason Allen. Still, once the dust settles, this R+3 CD is sure to be very high up the list of takeover targets. 29. Illinois-14 Bill Foster (D) (--) The GOP primary had long been in the books, and the race was nearly forgotten, when state Sen. Randy Hultgren (R) released a poll in early May showing him holding a minuscule lead over Foster. Foster was lucky enough to win a special in '08 at a time when Dems were on the ascent. But if this CD reverts back to GOP form (Obama took 55 percent in '08, but President Bush also took 55 percent in '04), Foster's in deep trouble. 30. Pennsylvania-15 Charlie Dent (R) (--) We're plenty confused about this race. Competing polling shows this contest is either a blowout (according to Dent's camp) or potentially very competitive (according to an Allentown Morning Call poll). But the strength of the Democratic nominee -- Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan -- has kept this race on our radar. His camp has kept Dent on his toes, bot
h with fundraising and with near-weekly attacks. Dent is a very strong campaigner and has proven he knows how to survive in tough years. But can he survive a strong challenger who will match him dollar for dollar?
____________________________________________________________
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA