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"President" Obama's re-election far from certain
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Brian Teller
Mar 12, 2012, 3:12:57 AM3/12/12
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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-
bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/03/11/MNJB1NIKUD.DTL
Washington --
The vultures of Republican gloom and doom already are picking at
the not-so-dead political carcasses of Mitt Romney and the rest
of the GOP presidential field.
We've heard it all: The primary campaign has come to resemble a
circular firing squad. The negative ratings of the contenders
have gone through the roof. The candidates' avid courtship of
the party's conservative core has alienated independent-minded
swing voters. Even the venerable right-thinking columnist George
Will suggested last week that Republicans give up on the White
House contest and concentrate all of their energy on the battle
for Congress.
"The Republican primary process has primarily served to reveal
its candidates as deeply flawed individuals with very high
negative ratings," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
Granted, it looks like a pretty stormy morning in America for
the GOP today. But before Democrats buy their plane tickets to
Barack Obama's second inaugural celebration, consider this:
Despite GOP woes, Obama is barely leading his Republican foes in
general election matchups. And most Americans still not are
ready to say that the Democratic incumbent deserves a second
term.
"Democrats would be unwise to grow overconfident," Lake
cautioned.
Economy an obstacle
Republicans can count on a massive bloc of voters who strongly
oppose Obama's policies, from energy to health care, and say
they'll vote for any GOP candidate on the ballot. But the
biggest obstacle to Obama's re-election, nonpartisan analysts
agree, is the nation's slow and unsteady recovery from the
biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression.
"We still have unemployment over 8 percent, the economy is a
mess, and gas prices are going up," said Harry Wilson, director
of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke
College in Salem, Va. "That he's even close to these guys
suggests that he's over-performing, not underperforming."
History offers a sobering lesson for Obama. Only one U.S.
president - Franklin Roosevelt - has won re-election when
unemployment topped 8 percent. Although the jobless rate has
dipped and the economy is expanding, voters are not yet
optimistic about the future.
'Not a pretty picture'
Just 34 percent of Americans think the country is headed in the
right direction, according to a RealClearPolitics.com average of
recent polling, while 60 percent say it's on the wrong track. By
49 percent to 45 percent, voters say a Republican would better
handle the economy, according to the bipartisan Battleground
Poll.
"If you look at the big picture, it's not a pretty picture for
the president," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. "Even at
Romney's lowest point, Obama has a five (percentage) point
margin. I think it's very likely to be a very close race in the
fall."
Indeed, the public seems evenly divided on Obama. Forty-eight
percent of Americans approve of his job performance, according
to an average of national polls taken in the past three weeks,
and 47 percent disapprove. Among recent presidents, only George
W. Bush won re-election with a job approval rating below 50
percent.
"President Obama is the 2012 version of President Carter,
seeking re-election in a country facing high unemployment and a
lack of citizen confidence in the future of the economy or his
leadership on those issues that matter most to them," said Wayne
Lesperance Jr., a political science professor at New England
College in Henniker, N.H. "The difference between Presidents
Obama and Carter is there is no Ronald Reagan running for
president" in 2012.
bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/03/11/MNJB1NIKUD.DTL
Washington --
The vultures of Republican gloom and doom already are picking at
the not-so-dead political carcasses of Mitt Romney and the rest
of the GOP presidential field.
We've heard it all: The primary campaign has come to resemble a
circular firing squad. The negative ratings of the contenders
have gone through the roof. The candidates' avid courtship of
the party's conservative core has alienated independent-minded
swing voters. Even the venerable right-thinking columnist George
Will suggested last week that Republicans give up on the White
House contest and concentrate all of their energy on the battle
for Congress.
"The Republican primary process has primarily served to reveal
its candidates as deeply flawed individuals with very high
negative ratings," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
Granted, it looks like a pretty stormy morning in America for
the GOP today. But before Democrats buy their plane tickets to
Barack Obama's second inaugural celebration, consider this:
Despite GOP woes, Obama is barely leading his Republican foes in
general election matchups. And most Americans still not are
ready to say that the Democratic incumbent deserves a second
term.
"Democrats would be unwise to grow overconfident," Lake
cautioned.
Economy an obstacle
Republicans can count on a massive bloc of voters who strongly
oppose Obama's policies, from energy to health care, and say
they'll vote for any GOP candidate on the ballot. But the
biggest obstacle to Obama's re-election, nonpartisan analysts
agree, is the nation's slow and unsteady recovery from the
biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression.
"We still have unemployment over 8 percent, the economy is a
mess, and gas prices are going up," said Harry Wilson, director
of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke
College in Salem, Va. "That he's even close to these guys
suggests that he's over-performing, not underperforming."
History offers a sobering lesson for Obama. Only one U.S.
president - Franklin Roosevelt - has won re-election when
unemployment topped 8 percent. Although the jobless rate has
dipped and the economy is expanding, voters are not yet
optimistic about the future.
'Not a pretty picture'
Just 34 percent of Americans think the country is headed in the
right direction, according to a RealClearPolitics.com average of
recent polling, while 60 percent say it's on the wrong track. By
49 percent to 45 percent, voters say a Republican would better
handle the economy, according to the bipartisan Battleground
Poll.
"If you look at the big picture, it's not a pretty picture for
the president," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. "Even at
Romney's lowest point, Obama has a five (percentage) point
margin. I think it's very likely to be a very close race in the
fall."
Indeed, the public seems evenly divided on Obama. Forty-eight
percent of Americans approve of his job performance, according
to an average of national polls taken in the past three weeks,
and 47 percent disapprove. Among recent presidents, only George
W. Bush won re-election with a job approval rating below 50
percent.
"President Obama is the 2012 version of President Carter,
seeking re-election in a country facing high unemployment and a
lack of citizen confidence in the future of the economy or his
leadership on those issues that matter most to them," said Wayne
Lesperance Jr., a political science professor at New England
College in Henniker, N.H. "The difference between Presidents
Obama and Carter is there is no Ronald Reagan running for
president" in 2012.
Ramon F. Herrera
Mar 12, 2012, 3:33:55 AM3/12/12
to
President Obama's re-election far from certain (quotes removed).
Mr. Teller, Please add the following facts to your "analysis":
(a) Political experts say that a Republican would have to earn at
least 30% of the Latino vote to win the White House.
(b) Fox News Latino Vote
2/10-2/25
Obama: 69% - Santorum: 14%
Obama: 70% - Romney: 14%
Obama: 72% - Gingrich: 14%
-Ramon
NB: In 2008 Hispanics voted for Obama by a 66% margin.
Baracka
Mar 12, 2012, 7:01:22 AM3/12/12
to
Tom Gardner
Mar 12, 2012, 3:09:35 PM3/12/12
to
"Ramon F. Herrera" <ra...@conexus.net> wrote in message
news:9102218b-7dc2-48ab...@w5g2000yqi.googlegroups.com...
Ramon F Herrera
Mar 12, 2012, 3:17:58 PM3/12/12
to
On Mar 12, 2:09 pm, "Tom Gardner" <t...@att.net> wrote:
> "Ramon F. Herrera" <ra...@conexus.net> wrote in messagenews:9102218b-7dc2-48ab...@w5g2000yqi.googlegroups.com...
There are 51 million Hispanics in the US. Their electoral
participation will jump from 7% (currently) to 21% of the electorate.
If the thought of illegality helps you sleep at night, be our guest.
After all, ignorance is bliss.
-Ramon
> "Ramon F. Herrera" <ra...@conexus.net> wrote in messagenews:9102218b-7dc2-48ab...@w5g2000yqi.googlegroups.com...
participation will jump from 7% (currently) to 21% of the electorate.
If the thought of illegality helps you sleep at night, be our guest.
After all, ignorance is bliss.
-Ramon
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