Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure - The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit
Johnny Asia
admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency
A report by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) last month said
worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and
go into terminal decline before 2020 �
But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar
warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told
a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out
there would be panic on the stock markets � in the end that would suit
no one."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency
Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower
Exclusive: Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official
* Terry Macalister
* guardian.co.uk, Monday 9 November 2009 21.30 GMT
The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates
admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency
who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage
for fear of triggering panic buying.
The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in
encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from
existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new
reserves.
The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the
organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to
be published tomorrow � which is used by the British and many other
governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change
policies.
'There's suspicion the IEA has been influenced by the US'
In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic
Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production
can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m
barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be
substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed
its peak in oil production.
Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the
global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil
supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it
was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year,"
said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of
reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense
but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the
IEA knows this.
"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at
even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears
that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were
brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy
because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources,"
he added.
A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to
give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was
"imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there
was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have
[already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is
really bad," he added.
The IEA acknowledges the importance of its own figures, boasting on
its website: "The IEA governments and industry from all across the
globe have come to rely on the World Energy Outlook to provide a
consistent basis on which they can formulate policies and design
business plans."
The British government, among others, always uses the IEA statistics
rather than any of its own to argue that there is little threat to
long-term oil supplies.
The IEA said tonight that peak oil critics had often wrongly
questioned the accuracy of its figures. A spokesman said it was unable
to comment ahead of the 2009 report being released tomorrow.
John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on
peak oil and gas, said the revelations confirmed his suspicions that
the IEA underplayed how quickly the world was running out and this had
profound implications for British government energy policy.
He said he had also been contacted by some IEA officials unhappy with
its lack of independent scepticism over predictions. "Reliance on IEA
reports has been used to justify claims that oil and gas supplies will
not peak before 2030. It is clear now that this will not be the case
and the IEA figures cannot be relied on," said Hemming.
"This all gives an importance to the Copenhagen [climate change] talks
and an urgent need for the UK to move faster towards a more
sustainable [lower carbon] economy if it is to avoid severe economic
dislocation," he added.
The IEA was established in 1974 after the oil crisis in an attempt to
try to safeguard energy supplies to the west. The World Energy Outlook
is produced annually under the control of the IEA's chief economist,
Fatih Birol, who has defended the projections from earlier outside
attack. Peak oil critics have often questioned the IEA figures.
But now IEA sources who have contacted the Guardian say that Birol has
increasingly been facing questions about the figures inside the
organisation.
Matt Simmons, a respected oil industry expert, has long questioned the
decline rates and oil statistics provided by Saudi Arabia on its own
fields. He has raised questions about whether peak oil is much closer
than many have accepted.
A report by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) last month said
worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and
go into terminal decline before 2020 � but that the government was not
facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said
forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were "at
best optimistic and at worst implausible".
But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar
warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told
a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out
there would be panic on the stock markets � in the end that would suit
no one."