[NATO-L] Costs / Arms Sales

[John Pike]

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1 - Voice of America 2/19/97 NATO EXPANSION / COSTS
THERE ARE POLITICAL, FINANCIAL -- EVEN PSYCHOLOGICAL --
FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED. THE RAND CORPORATION -- SAYS THE
COSTS OF MODERNIZING WEAPONS OF THE PROSPECTIVE NEW
MEMBERS AND IMPROVING THE MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURES
THERE COULD EXCEED 100-BILLION DOLLARS DURING THE NEXT
DECADE.

2 - Russia: NATO Expansion Tops Moscow's Agenda This Week
By Stephanie Baker Moscow, 19 February 1997 (RFE/RL) -
NATO expansion tops the agenda in Moscow this week with a series of
visits from the German and Italian foreign ministers and U.S. Secretary
of State Madeleine Albright.

3 - Western Press Review: Turning Up The Heat On NATO Expansion
By Don Hill 19 February 1997 (RFE/RL)
The world tour of U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
has focused Western press commentators' attention on the issue of
the proposed expansion eastward of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization.

4 - [EXCERPT] REPORT ON STATE DEPT. NOON BRIEFING,
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
There was no regular briefing, but Deputy State Department Deputy
Spokesman Glyn Davies did speak on-the-record with reporters.
Davies refused to comment on the specific allegations made in an article
written by Bill Gertz in the February 19 edition of The Washington Times
("NATO Candidates Armed Rogue States: Polish Company Sold Tanks to
Iran").
Davies did say, however, that the United States welcomes a statement
issued February 19 by Pawel Dobrowolski, press spokesman for Poland's
Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The statement said that Poland observes
the provisions of all the international non-proliferation regimes.

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Voice of America
DATE=2/19/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-35745
TITLE=NATO EXPANSION / COSTS
BYLINE=DAVID GOLLUST
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:

INTRO: WITH SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT
HOLDING INTENSIVE CONSULTATIONS IN EUROPE ON NATO
EXPANSION, THE DEBATE HERE IN WASHINGTON OVER THE COSTS
AND BENEFITS OF BROADENING THE ALLIANCE IS HEATING UP.
THERE ARE POLITICAL, FINANCIAL -- EVEN PSYCHOLOGICAL --
FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED. A REPORT FROM V-O-A DEFENSE
CORRESPONDENT DAVID GOLLUST.

TEXT: WHILE U-S AND EUROPEAN OFFICIALS ARE PRE-OCCUPIED
WITH POLITICAL ASPECTS OF THE ISSUE, THE EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE ALLIANCE WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TANGIBLE
COSTS.

IN A STUDY PARTLY UNDERWRITTEN BY THE DEFENSE
DEPARTMENT, A PRIVATE RESEARCH INSTITUTE -- THE RAND
CORPORATION -- SAYS THE COSTS OF MODERNIZING WEAPONS OF
THE PROSPECTIVE NEW MEMBERS AND IMPROVING THE MILITARY
INFRASTRUCTURES THERE COULD EXCEED 100-BILLION DOLLARS
DURING THE NEXT DECADE.

PENTAGON OFFICIALS INSIST THE RAND CORPORATION ESTIMATE IS
EXCESSIVE, GIVEN -- AMONG OTHER THINGS -- THE DIMINISHED
MILITARY THREAT IN CENTRAL EUROPE WITH THE END OF THE
COLD WAR. THAT VIEW IS SHARED BY MICHAEL O'HANLON, A
POLICY ANALYST AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTION IN WASHINGTON,
WHO SAYS THE RAND ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A WORST-CASE
SCENARIO.

///O'HANLON ACTUALITY///

THERE'S KIND OF TWO POLES TO THINK ABOUT -- THE EXTREME
OF BELIEVING THAT WE'RE ACTUALLY SOMEHOW GOING TO FIGHT
A MAJOR WAR ON CZECH TERRITORY AGAINST A HOSTILE
INVADER. IF YOU TAKE THAT SERIOUSLY, AND YOU BELIEVE
YOU'VE GOT TO PREPARE FOR THAT RIGHT NOW -- WHICH I
WOULD ARGUE NO ONE DOES AND NO ONE WILL -- IF YOU WERE
TO DO THAT, THEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT BIG EXPENSES TO
DEPLOY FORCES THERE AND PROBABLY ADD FORCES TO THE U-S
MILITARY SO THAT THEY COULD BE AVAILABLE FOR THAT
MISSION IN GENERAL. THAT WOULD BE IN THE BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS A YEAR. MUCH MORE LIKELY, I THINK, IS SIMPLY AN
EXPANSION OF THE NATO INFRASTRUCTURE FUND -- WHICH IS A
BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR OR A LITTLE LESS.

///END ACT///

DOV ZAKHEIM, A FORMER SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL IN THE
REAGAN ADMINISTRATION, SAYS NATO IS LIKELY TO BE LENIENT IN
ANY FINANCIAL DEMANDS ON CENTRAL EUROPEAN MEMBERS. MR.
ZAKHEIM -- NOW AN ANALYST WITH WASHINGTON'S CENTER FOR
STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES -- SAYS THE COSTS TO
PROSPECTIVE MEMBER STATES LIKE POLAND WOULD BE FAR
OUTWEIGHED BY THE "MASSIVE PSYCHOLOGICAL BENEFIT" OF, IN
EFFECT, BEING BROUGHT UNDER THE U-S DEFENSE UMBRELLA.

///ZAKHEIM ACTUALITY///

IT DOESN'T NECESSARY MEAN THAT WE'D BE FIGHTING IN THE
SUBURBS OF WARSAW AGAINST SOME INVADER. WHAT IT DOES
MEAN IS THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THEIR HISTORY, THEY
WOULD BE LINKED TO A COUNTRY THAT HASN'T LET THEM DOWN.
THEY WERE AFTER ALL, LET DOWN BY THE WESTERN ALLIES IN
WORLD WAR TWO WHO CAME IN WITH TOO LITTLE TOO LATE. AND
IT'S THAT MEMORY THAT HAUNTS THEM. THE CZECHS NEVER EVEN
GOT TO THE WAR. THEY WERE LET DOWN BEFORE THEN. SO
THERE'S THIS MEMORY IN EASTERN EUROPE OF INCONSTANCY ON
THE PART OF WESTERN EUROPE. AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP OF NATO WOULD FINALLY DO AWAY WITH.
AND THAT'S A PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTOR THAT GOES WELL BEYOND
ANY SPECIFIC MILITARY OBLIGATION.

///END ACT///

MR. ZAKHEIM, A STRONG ADVOCATE OF NATO EXPANSION,
FAULTED THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION FOR -- AS HE PUT IT --
BENDING OVER BACKWARDS TO TRY TO ASSUAGE RUSSIAN
CONCERNS ABOUT THE PROCESS.

HOWEVER, THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION'S MR. O'HANLON SAYS THE
MOST SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN EUROPE TODAY CONCERN THE SAFETY
OF RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND UNREST IN FORMER SOVIET
REPUBLICS -- BOTH OF WHICH, HE SAYS, WOULD BE EXACERBATED
BY NATO EXPANSION:

///O'HANLON ACT///

I JUST DON'T SEE THE POINT OF JEOPARDIZING U-S / RUSSIAN
RELATIONS OVER AN EXPANSION THAT'S ENTIRELY UNNECESSARY
AT THIS POINT, AND SETTING UP ANOTHER LINE IN EUROPE
THAT JUST HAPPENS TO BE FURTHER TO THE EAST. IF WE HAD
MADE AN EXPLICIT DECISION TO SOMEDAY WELCOME RUSSIA IN
ONCE THEY DID CERTAIN THINGS WITH THEIR MILITARY, I
WOULD SAY O-K, LET'S GO AHEAD AND START THIS
STEP-BY-STEP, WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THIS IS OPEN TO
EVERYONE. BUT EVERYONE KNOWS -- AND HALF OF THE
HIGH-RANKING OFFICIALS WILL SAY IN THEIR LESS DISCREET
MOMENTS -- THAT THIS AN ANTI-RUSSIAN ALLIANCE IN MANY
WAYS.

///END ACT///

MR. O'HANLON HAILED EFFORTS BY SECRETARY ALBRIGHT TO
INCLUDE RUSSIA IN THE EUROPEAN SECURITY STRUCTURE -- EVEN
IF THEY COME AT THE EXPENSE OF DILUTING NATO'S TRADITIONAL
ROLE AS A TIGHTLY-WOVEN MILITARY ALLIANCE. (SIGNED)

NEB/DAG/RRM

19-Feb-97 2:28 PM EST (1928 UTC)
NNNN

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Russia: NATO Expansion Tops Moscow's Agenda This Week

By Stephanie Baker

Moscow, 19 February 1997 (RFE/RL) - NATO expansion tops
the agenda in Moscow this week with a series of visits from the
German and Italian foreign ministers and U.S. Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright.

All the high-level visits are aimed at softening Russia's staunch
opposition to the Atlantic Alliance's plans to accept new members
from Central and Eastern Europe. Although there are some signs of
common ground and of possible compromise, both NATO and
Russia appear to digging in their heels on the issue of NATO's
expansion to the East.

Yesterday Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov, after meeting with
his German counterpart Klaus Kinkel in Moscow, said Russia
would only accept what he called "a legally binding treaty" with
NATO on future relations. He reiterated Moscow's opposition to
the Alliance's expansion plans, but said Moscow was ready to
discuss ways of reaching an agreement acceptable to both sides.
Kinkel, for his part, said he hoped a special charter outlining
relations between Russia and the Alliance could be agreed upon
before the first invitations to join NATO are issued at a scheduled
July Alliance summit in Madrid.

Their comments pointed up the crux of the disagreement between
Russia and NATO. Moscow wants a formal treaty that would have
to be ratified by the parliaments of the Alliance's 16 member states
-- plus Russia. NATO fears such a treaty could get bogged down in
parliamentary debates, turning its planned speedy expansion into a
protracted legalistic battle.

Albright arrives in Moscow tomorrow for talks with both Primakov
and President Boris Yeltsin. Since Sunday, she has been touring
Europe to drum up support for new initiatives aimed at reducing
Russian resistance to NATO's expansion Eastward. Yesterday, in
her first address at the Alliance's headquarters in Brussels, she
called for the establishment of a NATO-Russia joint brigade, to
complement a previously proposed joint council to promote
dialogue on common security issues.

In her address, Albright said, "Our goal is an undivided Europe."
But she admitted that Russia is unlikely to reverse its opposition to
enlargement. Albright had earlier said that her trip to Moscow is
designed to explain that the Alliance's expansion plans pose no
security threat Russia.

In an attempt to get her message across unfiltered, Albright granted
a television interview to the popular Russian political-affairs show,
"Itogi" ("Summaries"), which was shown on Sunday. In it, she said
that NATO expansion is not aimed at Russia, but is meant to
provide security and confidence to the countries of Central and
Eastern Europe.

Primakov, in a separate interview on the same program, stressed
that any agreement with the Alliance on a charter should be legally
binding. He said NATO should take steps to transform itself into a
political rather than a military organization.

But Primakov also said Moscow's security concerns could be
reduced by changing the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE)
treaty so as to limit NATO's ability to move troops and weapons
onto the territories of any new member states. Proposals to revise
the treaty are expected to be discussed later this week at a meeting
in Vienna. Moscow has long demanded that the CFE treaty, which
was signed in the waning days of the Cold War, be changed to take
into account the new security situation following the collapse of the
Soviet Union.

Albright's visit to Moscow follows a string of tough statements last
week by senior Russian officials against NATO expansion. Yeltsin's
foreign-policy advisor, Dmitry Ryurikov, told a roundtable on the
Alliance's planned enlargement that NATO's refusal to grant Russia
a veto on security matters was "unfair and wrong." Ryurikov also
criticized NATO Secretary General Javier Solana's tour last week
of several former Soviet republics, which Ryurikov said was
tantamount to an attempt to prepare them for Alliance membership.

Adding to the heated Russian tone on NATO expansion was
Security Council chief Ivan Rybkin, who said in a newspaper
interview that Russia would be ready to defend itself with nuclear
weapons if threatened by NATO. And the Russian media itself has
been equally strident. Yesterday the daily "Izvestia," referring to
Albright as the "iron lady," said her European tour is "aimed at
demonstrating to the allies that the enlargement of NATO and its
rejuvenation will be conducted according to an overseas script."

Some recent public opinion polls have suggested that most Russians
are far more concerned with the country's mounting economic
problems than they are with NATO expansion. But the increased
media attention -- and hostility -- to NATO enlargement could end
up changing many people's minds.

19-02-97

© 1997 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.

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Western Press Review: Turning Up The Heat On NATO Expansion
By Don Hill

Prague, 19 February 1997 (RFE/RL) -- The so-far apparently
triumphal world tour of U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
has focused Western press commentators' attention on the issue of
the proposed expansion eastward of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization.

Addressing NATO ministers in Brussels yesterday, Albright
proposed sharp reductions in conventional weapons in Central and
Eastern Europe and the formation of joint NATO-Russia
peacekeeping brigade. She continues her tour today in London.

NEW YORK TIMES: Russian officials remain opposed to
enlargement

In an analysis today, Steven Erlanger writes: "The proposals are
part of a larger NATO offer intended to persuade the Russians to
acquiesce in NATO's expansion and negotiate a NATO-Russian
charter to govern their relations. Albright is to discuss those issues
with President Boris Yeltsin and Foreign Minister Yevgeny
Primakov when she visits Moscow tomorrow and Friday. Russian
officials remain bitterly opposed to NATO enlargement, and no one
expects them suddenly to embrace it. But Albright, after having laid
the groundwork this week, will be able to describe in detail a unified
alliance position in preparation for President Clinton's summit
meeting with Yeltsin in Helsinki in March."

Erlanger continues: "While no one expects the Russians to accept
NATO's offer as presented, it sets a structure for negotiations that
American officials hope will produce a charter by the time NATO
meets in Madrid in July. They said they believe that it offers Yeltsin
enough to be able to tell Russians that a NATO expansion, through
tough Russian diplomacy, may lessen the threat to Moscow, while
tying Russia more deeply into the workings of its former enemy
alliance."

LONDON GUARDIAN: How can NATO play a leading role in
Europe if the largest country is ruled out?

Encapsulating the mixture of Western opinion, an editorial today
headlined "Including Russia Out" denounces NATO's proposed
expansion, and also publishes a commentary urgently endorsing the
proposal.

In the editorial, the papers says: "Everyone will applaud (Albright's)
warning that the post-Cold War 'space of tranquillity' should not be
squandered, and that parts of Europe are not so tranquil anyhow." It
adds: "No one can object to her ultimate goal of 'a peaceful and
undivided Europe.' "

But the Guardian continues: "Yet it is a huge and unsubstantiated
leap from this to the assertion that NATO is playing now the
'leading role' in bringing Europe together. How can that possibly be
true when half of Europe remains outside and the largest country
(Russia) is ruled out in advance?"

GUARDIAN: NATO has put forth elaborate plans to cooperate
with Russia

In a signed commentary, Jonathan Eyal, director of studies at
Britain's Royal United Services Institute, writes: "NATO has put
forward elaborate plans for cooperation with Moscow at every
level, to which the Russians have not responded. They want Central
Europe to remain a sphere of joint influence, carved between
themselves and the West. If their opposition is allowed to prevent
NATO's enlargement, this not only will create a European crisis of
major proportions, but probably will overturn most of the
arrangements which ensured stability on the continent since the last
great war. Enlargement should proceed. It is the least bad option
available."

FINANCIAL TIMES: Albright's trip is intended to push the plan to
enlarge NATO

In today's edition of the British daily, commentator Ian Davidson
argues against NATO enlargement with these words: "The main
purpose of Mrs. Albright's hectic travel schedule is to push the plan
to enlarge NATO into Eastern Europe by hustling alliance members
into line and persuading the Russians not to make too much fuss
about a project which marks a big shift in the strategic balance
against them." Davidson concludes that if NATO expansion "goes
ahead, it could jeopardize East-West nuclear and conventional arms
control...The Russian Duma," he notes, "is already threatening to
throw out the START nuclear arms treaty."

FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG: Democracy and
stability in Russia do not depend on NATO expansion

Christiane Hoffmann comments today: "Russia has both convincing
and less convincing arguments against the eastward expansion of
NATO, or at least for consideration of its interest in participating in
European security policy. Lately Russia seems to be fighting
NATO's expansion with the less convincing arguments."

Hoffmann continues: "Prime minister Chernomyrdin as well as
Russian President Boris Yeltsin's chief of staff, Anatoly Chubais, are
using the fear of nationalism and communism as their main weapon
against the expansion. They say expansion would endanger
democracy in Russia because it would give (communist party leader
Gennady) Zyuganov and (ultra-nationalist Vladimir) Zhirinovsky the
arguments of a 'threat from the West.' " Hoffmann says: "This
bogeyman is well-known because Russia for years has used
Zhirinovsky as a lever to pry money and political favors from the
West." She concludes: "If democracy and stability have a chance in
Russia, they do not depend on NATO expansion, but on the
domestic social and economic situation in Russia. It is not the
Alliance that is threatening democracy as much as unpaid salaries
and pensions and the desolate condition of the armed forces."

LOS ANGELES TIMES: Moscow's power has shrunk to Russia
proper

In an analysis in today's edition, Tyler Marshall writes: "In keeping
with what once was the great divide between the Soviet Empire and
the West, the 1990 (Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty) split
the nations of Europe into two groups -- the Western allies and the
Eastern Bloc -- and placed equal limits on the weapons that each
could possess." Marshal continues: "But with the demise of the
Warsaw Pact and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the reach of
Moscow's power has shrunk to just Russia proper; in the process,
Russia now has been limited to forces that are little more than
one-third the level of those accorded to NATO. And if Poland,
Hungary and the Czech Republic join the Atlantic alliance, as widely
expected, NATO's superiority will be greater still."

LONDON TIMES: NATO enlargement would be a fateful error,
says Kennan

Commentator Simon Jenkins writes today of "the new escalation"
and calls NATO expansion "America's pet plan" and an
"unnecessary risk." He quotes two statements which, he says,
"cannot both be true." One is: "The new NATO can vanquish old
hatreds, promote integration, create a secure environment for
prosperity, and deter violence." He writes: "The speaker is
Madeleine Albright, American secretary of state. She is supported
by the British government."

Jenkins goes on: "The second statement reads (in part): 'NATO
enlargement would be the most fateful error of American policy in
the entire post Cold War era." Jenkins explains: "This speaker is
George Kennan, veteran diplomat and Kremlinologist. He is
supported by many letters in The (London) Times."

Jenkins concludes: "These people should sort out their differences,
and soon. One of them is wrong, and if it is Madeleine Albright, we
are in trouble."

LONDON INDEPENDENT: Germany is closer to Russia than any
other Western power

Phil Reeves writes from Moscow today in an analysis: "As an
indignant Moscow awaited the new U.S. secretary of state, the
second act on the bill climbed into the ring yesterday -- Germany's
Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel. He came to spar with his
counterpart, Yevgeny Primakov, over NATO expansion in the hope
of softening up the Kremlin before the small but determined figure of
Ms. Albright and her bandwagon (come) into view tomorrow."
Reeves says: "Germany is closer to Russia than any other Western
power, and has produced a more conciliatory line over the Atlantic
alliance than (has) the United States."

19-02-97

© 1997 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.

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[EXCERPT] REPORT ON STATE DEPT. NOON BRIEFING,
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19

There was no regular briefing, but Deputy State Department Deputy
Spokesman Glyn Davies did speak on-the-record with reporters. No
transcript is available of this briefing.
......

ARMS SALES/NATO CANDIDATES -- Davies refused to comment on the
specific allegations made in an article written by Bill Gertz in the
February 19 edition of The Washington Times ("NATO Candidates Armed
Rogue States: Polish Company Sold Tanks to Iran"). "Much if not most
of that article is based on allegedly leaked intelligence reports,"
Davies noted.

Davies did say, however, that the United States welcomes a statement
issued February 19 by Pawel Dobrowolski, press spokesman for Poland's
Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The statement said that Poland observes
the provisions of all the international non-proliferation regimes. It
notes that after 1993, Poland has not signed any new contracts with
Iran for supply of military equipment. "All contacts in this area are
in fulfillment of earlier commitments and are in keeping with Poland's
international obligations," according to the statement.

Davies said the United States Government has worked very closely and
very successfully with the Government of Poland "to close out Poland's
arms related trade with Iran.

"We've long encouraged all countries not to engage in arms-related
trade with states like Iran," Davies said. "It's essential, we
believe, to international peace and security to keep arms and
sensitive technology out of dangerous hands in critical regions of the
world. We, therefore, were pleased when the Polish foreign minister
(Wladyslaw) Bartoszewski announced in March 1995 that Poland would
cease future arms sales to Iran and phase out its existing
obligations. Since that announcement was made, the Polish government
has had a very good track record in our eyes in carrying out this
commitment. We are confident that the Polish government will continue
to insure the full implementation of its commitment."

Davies added that the governments of Slovenia and Bulgaria as well
have given "excellent cooperation" in ending sales of arms to Iran and
the Sudan.

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John Pike
Federation of American Scientists http://www.fas.org/
Space Policy Project http://www.fas.org/spp/
Public Eye http://www.fas.org/eye/
Intelligence Reform Project http://www.fas.org/irp/

Indeed I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just.
- Jefferson