The Better Hillary Does, The Worse For Obama
Clay
By Dick Morris
August 27, 2008
By not putting Hillary on his ticket and then giving her a prime-time
speech at the convention on Tuesday, Obama has the worst of both
possible worlds. The better Hillary does in her speech, the more
people ask why she was passed over for vice president.
This is written before Mrs. Clinton spoke on Tuesday night, but she
will not blow this opportunity to shine in front of a larger national
audience than she has ever had. She will crisply articulate her
programs and proposals, and will come across as forceful, committed
and energetic. Women from coast to coast will watch her and wonder why
she isn't on the ticket.
It's a little like a movie that opens with flat ticket sales and bad
reviews. Then the star they rejected for the lead role auditions and
everyone wonders why she wasn't given the part.
Obama has a huge problem with female voters. A Democratic candidate
should be running 10 to 15 points better among women than among men.
But Obama is losing men by 1 and carrying women by 1. While he's doing
about as well as she should among women under 40, he is actually
losing those who are older, a group a Democrat usually sweeps.
He didn't help himself with these women by not choosing Hillary. Now,
when Hillary spends all of Tuesday night showing what a grievous
omission leaving her off the ticket really was, the electoral
consequences for Obama are likely to be horrific.
It is so odd to find a situation where the economy seems to work to
the advantage of the incumbent party, even though we are mired in a
quasi-recession. But the current misery most people feel is nothing
compared to our fear of what might be in store for us.
We wonder if our banking system and our economy can weather the shocks
that seem to loom on the horizon. It is no comfort to us to find in
the Democratic candidate an ingenue who wants sharp increases in
taxes. Polls show that middle-class voters do not believe that the
taxes won't apply to them and worry, in any event, that they could tip
the economy into a full-fledged depression.
The Russian invasion of Georgia, and Obama's uncertain and hesitant
reaction to it as he was body surfing in Hawaii, did nothing to
reassure us that he can handle the threats we face to our national
security, either. Terrorism is never far from our minds, and the world
suddenly seems like a dangerous place with Russia sending in tanks and
rattling nuclear weapons. The combination of fears of depression and
fear of war seems tailor made for McCain.
But Obama is still the favorite to win. The nation so aches for a
Democrat and so wants to turn away from George Bush and the
Republicans that it is hard to see how McCain can win. But when one
considers the issues, it's hard to see how he can lose.
This election can be summarized as follows: A party that is absolutely
certain to win has a candidate who has great difficulty getting
elected, while the other party is doomed to defeat but has nominated a
candidate who just might win.
------------
-C-
KalElFan
news:a71f07e6-095e-4792...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com...
> By Dick Morris
> August 27, 2008
>
> By not putting Hillary on his ticket and then giving her a prime-time
> speech at the convention on Tuesday, Obama has the worst of both
> possible worlds. The better Hillary does in her speech, the more
> people ask why she was passed over for vice president.
>
> This is written before Mrs. Clinton spoke on Tuesday night, but she
> will not blow this opportunity to shine in front of a larger national
> audience than she has ever had. She will crisply articulate her
> programs and proposals, and will come across as forceful, committed
> and energetic. Women from coast to coast will watch her and wonder
> why she isn't on the ticket.
His comments before the speech on FOX (where he's a regular
contributor) were along the same lines. He added that Hillary
wouldn't be trying to outshine Obama with the speech, but rather
outshine Biden. Not for any personal reasons, but to drive home
even more that she should have been the VP pick.
After having seen the Hillary speech, that analysis was prescient
and perhaps the best of the campaign. Most observers really didn't
expect Hillary to deliver a great speech that fired up the troops and
even attacked McCain to some extent. They thought she'd give a good
but tepid-sounding speech that said all the right things and stated her
support for Obama. If you were to just read the speech on paper,
it probably looked more like the latter. Parsing and dissecting the
McCain criticism, even that's tame. But she arguably delivered it
the best of any speech she's ever made, really got the crowd going,
and as the cameras cut away very early into it, it seemed that even
Michelle Obama and Joe Biden were pleasantly surprised and
enthusiastic.
Later, one got the impression that the implications of that -- the ones
that Morris had set out in his analysis -- were setting in a bit more. It
was like "Oh-oh. Maybe she's done this a bit *too* well."
The last few weeks, including through the Biden selection and the
almost two days of convention before Hillary's speech, were not
good for Obama or the Democrats. It's not just the quarter or
third of Hillary supporters who might vote McCain that's the
problem. It's not just women generally who might do that. It's
pretty much all of the centrists and independents, including males,
who factor all this in to what's effectively a referendum on Obama.
Consider for example, as another article recently phrased it,
"Obama's willingness to meet the world's most notorious and
anti-American dictators without preconditions". That's loaded
wording and Obama has tried to moderate that. To women and
centrists and independents, they probably like the general idea of
a new leader who's intent on sending out armies of diplomats and
working with allies and so on -- of doing everything they can and
then going the extra mile to make peace and not war.
It's a nice idea, but Obama couldn't even make enough peace
with Hillary to put her on the ticket! The convention and
Hillary speech, probably Bill Clinton's speech tonight, and the
continuing rancor of Hillary supporters outside the convention,
only serve to drive that point home even more. Obama hasn't
yet been able to deliver on one of his key "uniter" sales pitches,
even within his own party.
Presumably there'll be some bounce out of the convention, but
as of yesterday the Gallup tracking poll actually had McCain
two points ahead. There was a Biden dip, not a bounce.
Even if there's a Hillary speech bounce, it's likely to be short-
lived as the implications of Obama not picking her set in: the
lingering party disunity that'll be there no matter how much
the Democrats try to spin it.
It's interesting to speculate how a political poker hand should
be played at any given point in time. The way things look this
morning, perhaps Obama, Biden and Hillary should be getting
together and planning a Wednesday Night surprise, even to
the three of them compared to what they thought would have
been the best approach even a few days ago. For years some
conspiracy theorists will insist it must have been their plan all
along. :-) But Biden should get up there and give a rousing
speech that praises Hilary, say he's discussed it with Obama
earlier today, and that he's offered and Obama agreed that he
would decline the VP nomination. Instead, he'll be Secretary
of State in an Obama-Clinton administration, and he places
Hillary's name into nomination for the VP slot.
The only pitfall is that the rafters of the building may not hold
against the crowd reaction and noise. It becomes the most
iconic moment in political convention history. The Obama-
Clinton bounce is at least 10-12 points and barring a major
Democratic gaffe McCain probably can't overcome it.
No, don't seriously expect it to happen. But unless it does,
and against all odds given how much the Democrats had
going for them, there's a surprisingly good chance Obama
loses this election.
clouddreamer
Americans can't be that stupid three times in a row, can they?
..
--
We must change the way we live,
or the climate will do it for us.
Proud of Barak
"KalElFan" <kale...@yanospamhoo.com> wrote in message
news:6hl2oaF...@mid.individual.net...
Clay thinks if he says something it'll become true. His monkey ego precedes
his common sense.
mooseb...@hotmail.com
> "KalElFan" <kalel...@yanospamhoo.com> wrote in message
>
> news:6hl2oaF...@mid.individual.net...
>
>
>
> > "Clay" <clays0nl...@gmail.com> wrote in message
Don't respond to Clay. You're only justifying his inanity.
KalElFan
news:Jkdtk.19152$xZ....@nlpi070.nbdc.sbc.com...
In this case, as I think he often does though I don't normally pay
much attention to the threads he starts, Clay was just posting the
article by Dick Morris and I was commenting and expanding on
that. I don't think Clay's written a word in the thread.
Jim Alder
> By Dick Morris
> August 27, 2008
>
> By not putting Hillary on his ticket and then giving her a prime-time
> speech at the convention on Tuesday, Obama has the worst of both
> possible worlds. The better Hillary does in her speech, the more
> people ask why she was passed over for vice president.
Because despite what they've been trying to say for the past 8 years, one's
ability to make a speech is not the prime quality sought in a president. Or
because she was voted down in the primaries, so obviously the majority doesn't
want her. (Why do Democrats have so little love for the Democratic process?)
Or because she's a scary Marxist and a sociopathic liar. And Obama doesn't
want to fall asleep on the railroad tracks.
> It's a little like a movie that opens with flat ticket sales and bad
> reviews. Then the star they rejected for the lead role auditions and
> everyone wonders why she wasn't given the part.
Why would an actor audition for a part when the movie is already in the
theater?
> It is so odd to find a situation where the economy seems to work to
> the advantage of the incumbent party, even though we are mired in a
> quasi-recession. But the current misery most people feel is nothing
> compared to our fear of what might be in store for us.
...if Obama wins.
> But Obama is still the favorite to win. The nation so aches for a
> Democrat and so wants to turn away from George Bush and the
> Republicans that it is hard to see how McCain can win. But when one
> considers the issues, it's hard to see how he can lose.
Watch and learn.
> This election can be summarized as follows: A party that is absolutely
> certain to win has a candidate who has great difficulty getting
> elected, while the other party is doomed to defeat but has nominated a
> candidate who just might win.
Clear as mud.
--
"Life isn't about waiting for the storm
to pass... it's about learning to dance
in the rain."
Proud of Barak
"Jim Alder" <jima...@ssnet.com> wrote in message
news:Xns9B07A906B4A5C...@216.196.97.142...
> Clear as mud.
Unlike your red headed pizza face.
Jim Alder
lubow
"Clay" <clays...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:a71f07e6-095e-4792...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com...
>