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By Jeremy P. Jacobs
Posted: 03/23/09 04:49 PM [ET]
There has been a flurry of activity in Northern California ever since Rep.
Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) announced last week that she hopes to join the
State Department.
Already, the chatter in Washington and the Golden State has focused on state
Sen. Mark DeSaulnier (D), making him the early front-runner in the race.
In an interview with The Hill, DeSaulnier said he is laying the groundwork
for his campaign but will wait until Tauscher is confirmed to make an
official announcement.
"If the seat opens up, I am going to run," he said. "My hesitation is out of
respect for Ellen. When she's comfortable with it, then I'll officially do
it."
DeSaulnier added that he is already "hard at work at it."
Tauscher, the chairwoman of the House Armed Services Strategic Forces
subcommittee, accepted an offer last week to serve as undersecretary of
State for arms control and international security. But Tauscher must be
confirmed by the Senate, which could take weeks or months.
If Tauscher is confirmed, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) will have 14 days
to set the date of a special election from when she vacates her seat. The
election cannot be less than 112 days from the proclamation. A primary will
be eight Tuesdays before the general election, and candidates from both
parties will appear on a single ballot. If one candidate earns 50 percent in
the primary, he or she wins the seat. If not, the top Republican and
Democrat will face off in a general election.
DeSaulnier has several things going for him. First, he picked up the
endorsement of state Assemblyman Tom Torlakson, who was considered a strong
candidate for the race, at the end of last week. Second, he is close with
Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.), who is helping him set up his fundraising
operation. And third, and perhaps most importantly, DeSaulnier believes he
is in line with the district's ideology.
At first glance, the partisan leanings of California's 10th congressional
district can be slightly deceiving. The district is located just east of the
Bay Area, one of the most liberal areas of the country. But before it was
redistricted in 2001, the district was equally Republican and Democratic,
and local experts said it is more middle-of-the-road than others in the Bay
Area.
"Given demographic shifts in the area and redistricting, the district now
leans Democrat," said Dan Schnur, a veteran California Republican
strategist. "Tauscher has always done well because she's a moderate
Democrat. . It's still a Democratic seat, but the lesson for the Democratic
nominee to learn from Tauscher is this is still a moderate district. The
Democratic nominee would be in trouble to swing too far to the left."
The majority of the district's voters live in Contra Costa County, where
DeSaulnier is a former supervisor and restaurant owner. The district is now
47 percent Democratic and 29 percent Republican by voter registration and
went 65 percent for President Obama last November.
DeSaulnier, who switched from being a Republican to a Democrat 10 years ago,
noted he has always been in line with the district, which he said is
composed of a lot of labor and Reagan Democrats. He noted that he has been
backed by the major labor unions in all of his campaigns and expects their
support in this run as well.
Chuck Carpenter, the chairman of the Contra Costa County Democrats, said
DeSaulnier's biggest weapon is the grassroots operation left over from Obama's
presidential campaign. Those activists, Carpenter said, know and like
DeSaulnier.
"There are people on the ground and ready to work," Carpenter said. "And
they all have a history with Mark and like him."
DeSaulnier won't be unopposed, though. On the Democratic side, state
Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan said she is "definitely considering running."
"I think this is a unique opportunity that doesn't open often," she said. "I
think I have a profile that matches up well with the district and I plan to
do my due diligence over the next couple of weeks to make a decision."
Sources in the district say Buchanan has started that due diligence: She is
putting a poll into the field.