NATO/Russia/Ukraine
The Amer War Lib'y
(EXCERPT) STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update 2 March 2000
Finally, NATO Tests A Resurgent Russia - in Kiev
Summary
NATO's decision-making body - the North Atlantic Council - is meeting
in Kiev, Ukraine. This gathering in the most geopolitically
significant area of Russia's backyard is a direct challenge to the
Putin government's assertive new foreign policy. The alliance is
calling what it believes - indeed, hopes - to be Moscow's nationalist
bluff, painting a picture of the consequences the West could present
if it continues down its current path. The move, however, is unlikely
to dissuade the government in Moscow and will likely only entrench
Russian nationalists. Regardless, the alliance's diplomatic thrust
indicates a shift change in NATO- Russian relations, likely for the
worse.
Analysis
NATO's North Atlantic Council (NAC), in its simultaneous capacity as
the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC), is meeting March 1-2. Composed of
ambassadorial-level representatives of the alliance's 19 member
states, the NAC is the alliance's principal decision- making body. The
NUC, in turn, was formed in 1997 to bring the alliance closer to
Ukraine. With mixed success, NATO and Ukraine have attempted to foster
a closer relationship. What is significant now is the location of the
meeting. The alliance's decision-makers are meeting in Kiev, not
Brussels, the headquarters.
As striking as the location - in the most strategically important
nation on the periphery of Russia - is the timing. The meeting appears
to have been called in Kiev on relatively short notice. And it is
taking place as Russia's acting President Vladimir Putin consolidates
both his power and his foreign policy; the March presidential
elections are approaching, and until now, the West has appeared
bewildered by his actions both abroad and in the war in Chechnya. With
this gathering, it appears that the alliance is sending two sharp
messages: one of support to Kiev and one of warning to Moscow.
NATO's relationship with Russia has changed dramatically and has not
truly recovered from the trough of last year's conflict over Kosovo.
Russia under former President Boris Yeltsin opened to the West and is
now afflicted with a criminalized economy, a demoralizing loss of
status and a dangerously ragged strategic situation along its borders.
Russia under Putin is not only increasingly nationalist at home - as
in the war in Chechnya - but is pursuing a vastly different foreign
policy abroad, one that is forceful and decidedly independent of the
West.
Indeed, it appears that after standing by idly the last several
months, Western governments are beginning to catch on and react -
albeit cautiously, even timidly. Western institutions are launching
initiatives around the Russian periphery. The European Union is
accelerating its expansion, earmarking $1 billion for Poland's
accession efforts last week - a quadrupling of previous outlays.
European Commission President Romano Prodi has alluded to tighter
links between the EU and NATO. NATO holds its first major military
exercise in a non-member's territory, in Sweden June 3-19. The
alliance is cooperating with neutral nations to arm the Baltic states
as well. And at the other end of Europe, Turkey is engaging in
intensive military exercise on its eastern border.
But the most striking aspect of the relationship between the alliance,
in particular, and Russia revolves around Ukraine. Ukraine is the most
strategically important piece of real estate between Europe and
Russia; neither can be secure without Ukraine. And throughout the
post-Cold War period, Ukraine has been contested. It is economically
dependent on Russia but has insisted on ever closer ties with the
West.
Much to Russia's dismay, NATO and Ukrainian forces have held joint
military exercises on the Black Sea and at a number of locations
ashore. NATO and Ukraine have also been busy building relationships
between their respective officer corps. The Ukrainiain military has
never made a secret of its desires to work with the West, recently and
pointedly declining a role in exercises with the Russian navy,
according to Deutsch Presse-Agentur. Ukrainian forces, however, will
participate in NATO's Cooperative Partner 2000 naval exercises, June
19-30, in the Ukrainian sector of the Black Sea.
The NATO-Ukraine Commission has been the other important vehicle for
security cooperation. Indeed, one of the commission's first actions,
after being formed three years ago, was to establish the Yavoriv
military facility in western Ukraine as a training center for the
Partnership for Peace program - the first such facility in the former
Soviet Union. Ever since, Yavoriv has served as a base of operations
for NATO-sponsored exercises. Now, NATO's civilian leadership arrives
not only to meet but to tour a variety of facilities.
It appears that this unusual meeting was called on comparatively short
notice; the first word appears to have come in late 1999, according to
spokesmen in Brussels, Washington and various embassies. This suggests
that the meeting is an outgrowth of the events of late last year: when
Russia's war in Chechnya was getting underway and senior U.S.
officials toured alarmed, neighboring nations. The decision to meet in
Kiev indicates a desire on the part of NATO to send a message of
support to Ukraine as well as a warning to Moscow.
It is likely that this warning will be counterproductive. Russia's
First Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov visited Kiev on Feb. 22,
in an apparent attempt to deepen Russia's influence over the Ukrainian
economy. After all, Putin, the acting Russian president, draws support
from the swells of Russian nationalism. An overly bold Western gesture
in Ukraine - perceived as vital by Russians - will only strengthen
nationalists. Further, a strategy of confrontation will likely cause
stress fractures within the alliance. Also, the West has yet to offer
the carrot as well as the stick; Putin will refuse to back down if the
only option is resorting to a Yeltsin foreign policy.
Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma seems to be scrabbling to stay out
of this brewing confrontation. Last week he left Kiev for a two-week
vacation in western Ukraine, according to a spokeswoman, directing his
foreign minister to deliver a speech to the NATO gathering on his
behalf. Neither in one camp nor the other, Ukraine has been forced to
gingerly tow a line between Moscow and Brussels. With both now openly
competing for Ukraine, Kuchma will find it increasingly difficult - if
not impossible - to maintain a balanced policy.
Curiously, Moscow has not officially responded to the NAC meeting.
After meeting with Russian officials, German Defense Minister Rudolf
Scharping is currently en route from Moscow to Washington; he is
likely to carry at least a partial Russian response. Russia seems to
be waiting for the right time and place to voice its full retort.
Like NATO, Russia has many cards to play. Ukraine's Russian minority
composes more than a quarter of the Ukrainian population. Russian
security services undoubtedly retain a strong presence. In case of a
conflict, no one in Kiev truly knows who would rally behind the flag.
Russian influence over Ukraine's economy is deepening. Most
importantly, despite the sheer size of Ukraine's territory and
population, it still shares a long and nearly indefensible border with
the Soviet Union's most powerful successor state: Russia.
A showdown is quietly brewing. NATO is trying to expand its ability to
operate jointly with the forces of neutral nations and many former
Soviet states. But it would be a high-profile NATO push into Ukraine
that would ultimately tip the scale. Putin has decided that Russia
will no longer play second fiddle to the West; the Western response is
that if Russia wants a confrontation, one can most certainly be
provided. Such a message will only further fuel Russia's nationalist
fires.
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