Robotics and the real (sorry, Karl, you got it wrong) final crisis of capitalism
RH
Robert Henderson
Humans and Robots
Robotics is advancing rapidly. Probably within the lifetime of most
people now living – and conceivably within the next ten years – there
will be general purpose robots (GPRs) capable of doing the vast
majority of the work now undertaken by human beings. When that happens
international free trade and free market economics even within a
closed domestic market will become untenable. The final crisis of
capitalism will be the development of technology so advanced that it
makes capitalism in the Marxist sense impossible because machines make
humans redundant.
Robots are already undertaking surprisingly sophisticated work, but
almost all are designed to undertake a limited range of tasks(http://
www.sciencedaily.com/news/computers_math/robotics/). None is a true
GPR. That makes them expensive because of the limited nature of their
possible uses and the restricted production runs they can generate.
Many of the most sophisticated are either one–offs or counted in
single figures. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/8330246/
Japanese-robot-could-be-sent-to-Space-Station.html). A GPR will change
that. They will be able to work across a wide range of tasks which
will both enhance their utility and result in massive production runs.
GPRs will become cheap, much cheaper than human labour.
The cost of GPRs will also fall because GPRs will sooner or later
reach a stage where they can replicate one another or design and build
new types of robot. This is potentially startling in terms of what
might be produced. Let us say that it takes one week for one GPR to
create another. At the end of the first week you have two GPRs. At the
end of the second week you have four GPRs. Let us suppose you keep on
doubling up every week. In thirty three weeks you have more GPRs that
the entire present population of the world. In thirty four weeks you
have more than twice the population of the world. The only
restrictions on production would be government curbs or a shortage of
materials and energy to build and run them.
Economic history to date shows that technological advance creates new
work. It may have very painful consequences for individuals whose
livelihood disappears – the hand-loomweavers of the early industrial
revolution are a classic example – but new opportunities for
employment arise as an economy becomes more sophisticated and
variegated. The hand-loom weaver found work in the new factories; the
redundant western factory worker of today in a call centre. At worst
they might only get a MacJob but at least it was a job.
But if the GPRs can do the MacJobs as well as the more demanding work,
then there will not be any new jobs for humans, not even much
supervisory work because GPRs will need little supervising, and less
and less as they become ever more sophisticated. Hence, this
technological advance will be like no other. GPRs will not only take
away existing jobs, they will devour any new work; the easier work
first, then the more complex.