The word is the real joless rate is 17.5% and if it remains in the double digits by next fall, the Democrats can kiss their majorities good bye!
Oath Keeper
Published: Thursday, 19 Nov 2009 | 4:55 PM ET Text Size By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com
As experts debate the potential speed of the US recovery, one figure
looms large but is often overlooked: nearly 1 in 5 Americans is either
out of work or under-employed.
According to the government's broadest measure of unemployment, some
17.5 percent are either without a job entirely or underemployed. The
so-called U-6 number is at the highest rate since becoming an official
labor statistic in 1994.
The number dwarfs the statistic most people pay attention to—the U-3
rate—which most recently showed unemployment at 10.2 percent for
October, the highest it has been since June 1983.
The difference is that what is traditionally referred to as the
"unemployment rate" only measures those out of work who are still
looking for jobs. Discouraged workers who have quit trying to find a
job, as well as those working part-time but looking for full-time work
or who are otherwise underemployed, count in the U-6 rate.
With such a large portion of Americans experiencing employment
struggles, economists worry that an extended period of slow or flat
growth lies ahead.
"To me there's no easy solution here," says Michael Pento, chief
economist at Delta Global Advisors. "Unless you create another bubble
in which the economy can create jobs, then you're not going to have
growth. That's the sad truth."
Jeff Cox
Staff Writer
CNBC.com
Pento warns that forecasts of a double-dip ("W") or a straight up
("V") recovery both could be too optimistic given the jobs situation.
Instead, he believes the economy could flatline (or "L") for an
extended period as small businesses struggle to grow and consequently
rehire the workers that have been furloughed as the U-3 unemployment
rate has doubled since March 2008.
As that trend has happened, the U-6 rate has expanded at an even more
dramatic pace. Economists cite several reasons for the phenomenon.
For one, more workers are becoming discouraged as real estate—the
focal point for the expansion in the earlier part of the decade—has
collapsed and taken millions of directly related and ancillary jobs
with it.
Many workers believe those jobs aren't coming back, and have thus quit
looking and added themselves to the broader unemployment count.
"In the earlier part of this decade, 40 percent of all new jobs
created were in real estate. Attorneys, mortgage brokers, agents,
construction—they were all circled around housing," Pento says. "We've
had a jobless recovery in the last two recessions. This is going to be
the third jobless recovery in a row."
Another factor that may be leading people onto the rolls of those no
longer looking for jobs is the government's accommodative extensions
of jobless benefits.
"Workers are unemployed for a much longer span than we've seen
historically," says David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities
International in New York. "Part of that may be affected by the longer
availability of benefits. It reduces the incentives for an urgent job
search."
Lamont Cranston
Queefer, did you hear that GDP grew by 2.8% in the 3rd quarter. That
means that Obama has ended the Bush recession.
Tempest
Democrats have nothing to fear as long as the stupid Repugs keep
coming up with things like purity tests that many of their own
Senators and Representatives can't pass.