American Enterprise Institute says Abramoff will hurt Republicans most; Look for a new RRR song sheet tomoorw
Sid9
Analysis: Abramoff Plea May Rock GOP Boat
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 7:59 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The plea deal worked out by Jack Abramoff could send
seismic waves across the political landscape in this congressional election
year. The Republicans, who control Congress and the White House, are likely
to take the biggest hits.
The GOP has more seats to lose and has closer ties with the former lobbyist.
But some Democrats with links to Abramoff and his associates are also
expected to be snagged in the influence-peddling net.
While the full dimensions of the corruption probe are not yet clear, some
political consultants and analysts are already comparing its damage
potential to the 1992 House banking scandal that led to the retirement or
ouster of 77 lawmakers.
''You don't have to be a political genius to sniff the smell of blood in the
water,'' said GOP consultant Rich Galen.
Galen said even lawmakers in seemingly safe districts, and those ''who don't
have a reputation for being fast and loose with the rules,'' could be
vulnerable if voters rise up in reproach ''and everybody drops five or six
points'' in this year's midterm contests.
Abramoff, a former $100,000-plus fundraiser for President Bush with close
ties to former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, pleaded guilty on Tuesday to
conspiracy, tax evasion and mail fraud. That cleared the way for his
cooperation with federal prosecutors in bringing charges against former
business and political associates.
The investigation is believed to involve up to 20 members of Congress and
aides and possibly several administration officials.
The timing couldn't be worse, politically, especially for Republicans.
Lawmakers who may be indicted could find themselves coming to trial this
summer, just ahead of the midterm elections. Around the same time, I. Lewis
''Scooter'' Libby, former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney, is
expected to stand trial in the CIA leak case.
DeLay, who had to step down as majority leader in September after a grand
jury in Texas indicted him in a campaign finance investigation, is awaiting
a trial date. And former Rep. Randy ''Duke'' Cunningham, R-Calif., gave up
his seat Dec. 1 after admitting he had accepted $2.4 million in bribes from
defense contractors.
With so many trials and prosecutions in the works, speculation is swirling
over whom Abramoff might bring down and on the possible fallout for others.
''Most seats in Congress are relatively safe this year. But they are not
safe from a tsunami,'' said University of Virginia political scientist Larry
Sabato, author of a book on political scandals. ''Iraq, plus economic
problems, plus these scandals, could produce a tsunami. That's what every
incumbent on Capitol Hill has to fear.''
Most Americans are convinced that corruption reaching into all levels of
government is a deeply rooted problem. According to an AP-Ipsos poll last
month, 88 percent say the problem is a serious one, with 51 percent calling
it ''very serious.''
People need to know ''that government is not for sale,'' Assistant Attorney
General Alice S. Fisher said in pledging to pursue the investigation
''wherever it goes.''
For months, federal prosecutors have focused on whether Abramoff defrauded
his Indian tribal clients of millions of dollars and used improper influence
on members of Congress. Tribes represented by the lobbyist contributed
millions of dollars in casino income to congressional campaigns.
Abramoff also took members of Congress on lavish overseas trips and provided
sports tickets, golf fees, frequent meals, entertainment and jobs for
lawmakers' relatives and aides.
Some lawmakers have already returned contributions. Others no doubt are
nervously scouring their memories and appointment books.
For years, many lawmakers have shrugged off lobbyists' gifts as campaign
contributions, harmless wining, dining and socializing. ''Now you've got
someone admitting exactly what the motivation was and explaining all the
avenues they used,'' said Kent Cooper, a former Federal Election Commission
official.
''You're talking about standard operating procedure here in Washington
suddenly being turned on its head and a key operator signing a plea
agreement that he may have been involved in some kind of public
corruption,'' said Cooper, who tracks lobbying and campaign contributions
for the nonpartisan Political Money Line service.
The Democratic National Committee called the situation the latest
installment of a Republican ''culture of corruption.'' That notion was
disputed by White House spokesman Scott McClellan, who denounced Abramoff's
activities as ''outrageous'' and noted that the lobbyist and his clients
contributed to both parties.
That may be so, said Norman Ornstein, a political analyst at the American
Enterprise Institute, ''but it will disproportionately affect Republicans.
They are the majority party and because Abramoff is a conservative
Republican.''
--
Rep.Murtha:
Our military has done everything that has been asked of them.
It is time to bring them home