100 Years in Germany and Japan
mra...@willamette.edu
Japan for the next 37 years. My question is, what do you think the
next 100 years holds for US troops in Germany and Japan?
I do not see the likely hood of US troops in those countries seeing
active combat in those countries to be very likely, but rather that
they will continue to be staging and logistical points for the next 37
years. The US troops will be unpopular with some significant segments
of the German and Japanese communities, but not enough to result in
them leaving.
Thoughts?
--
Mike Ralls
Good Habit
> I feel safe in predicting that the US will have troops in Germany and
> Japan for the next 37 years. My question is, what do you think the
> next 100 years holds for US troops in Germany and Japan?
Why '37' years? And why do you feel save in this prediction? I mean - 37
years ago (1971) most people would have felt 'save' in predicting that
Germany will still be divided in 2008, and that the USSR would still
exist, and be stronger than ever... (whatever they might claim with
hindsight - but very, very, very, very, very, (add a few million more
very here, for convenience) people would have stated otherwise in 1971,
in if they claim otherwise today, they are suffering from dementia or
they are simply lying...
So I would not feel save with such a prediction at all, and certainly
not for 100 years... I wouldn't even accept bet's that all three of this
nations (the USA, Japan, and Germany) will still exist in something like
their present form in 2045 (see USSR / GDR above).
Good Habit
> very here, for convenience) people would have stated otherwise in 1971,
> in if they claim otherwise today, they are suffering from dementia or
> they are simply lying...
Sorry for the typos: Of course it should read: 'but very..( ) _few_
people would have stated otherwise in 1971, _and_ if they claim
otherwise....
earlcolby...@sympatico.ca
> mra...@willamette.edu schrieb:
> So I would not feel save with such a prediction at all, and certainly
> not for 100 years... I wouldn't even accept bet's that all three of this
> nations (the USA, Japan, and Germany) will still exist in something like
> their present form in 2045 (see USSR / GDR above).
While a major change in Japan/USA seem unlikely to me, the European
experiment may turn out to be widely successful to the next generation
(the youth of today) and we could see them merging into one true
state. If the the present countries become the equal of states in the
US, with the population showing the same level of mobility as we see
in the states - the present countries could not truely be claimed to
exist as we understand them to be today.
Alfred Montestruc
Famous Science Fiction Author Robert A. Heinlein who had been a naval
officer and a working aeronautical engineer predicted in the 1950s in
a non-fiction book that the USSR would economically collapse before
the end of the 20th century in his book "Expanded Universe".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_A._Heinlein
A lot of people thought he was wrong, but nobody came looking for him
with butterfly nets and it is unfortunate that he did not live quite
long enough to see the Berlin wall fall.
I think it very questionable that in 37 years time the USA will still
have troops in either Germany or Japan. It is quite costly and it is
not all that popular with the local people and in case you have not
noticed, the USA is financially overextended. Budget cuts in US
Government operating expenses *ARE* going to be made, and these seem
to be among the least controversial inside the USA.
Dan Goodman
> On Apr 1, 2:10 pm, Good Habit <historyru...@hispeed.ch> wrote:
> > mra...@willamette.edu schrieb:
> >
> > > I feel safe in predicting that the US will have troops in Germany
> > > and Japan for the next 37 years. My question is, what do you
> > > think the next 100 years holds for US troops in Germany and Japan?
> >
> > Why '37' years? And why do you feel save in this prediction? I mean
> > - 37 years ago (1971) most people would have felt 'save' in
> > predicting that Germany will still be divided in 2008, and that the
> > USSR would still exist, and be stronger than ever... (whatever they
> > might claim with hindsight - but very, very, very, very, very, (add
> > a few million more very here, for convenience) people would have
> > stated otherwise in 1971, in if they claim otherwise today, they
> > are suffering from dementia or they are simply lying...
> >
> > So I would not feel save with such a prediction at all, and
> > certainly not for 100 years... I wouldn't even accept bet's that
> > all three of this nations (the USA, Japan, and Germany) will still
> > exist in something like their present form in 2045 (see USSR / GDR
> > above).
>
> Famous Science Fiction Author Robert A. Heinlein who had been a naval
> officer and a working aeronautical engineer predicted in the 1950s in
> a non-fiction book that the USSR would economically collapse before
> the end of the 20th century in his book "Expanded Universe".
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_A._Heinlein
If I recall correctly, he later decided he'd been wrong.
> A lot of people thought he was wrong, but nobody came looking for him
> with butterfly nets and it is unfortunate that he did not live quite
> long enough to see the Berlin wall fall.
>
> I think it very questionable that in 37 years time the USA will still
> have troops in either Germany or Japan. It is quite costly and it is
> not all that popular with the local people and in case you have not
> noticed, the USA is financially overextended. Budget cuts in US
> Government operating expenses ARE going to be made, and these seem
> to be among the least controversial inside the USA.
--
Dan Goodman
"I have always depended on the kindness of stranglers."
Tennessee Williams, A Streetcar Named Expire
Journal http://dsgood.livejournal.com
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Jaakko Raipala
> While a major change in Japan/USA seem unlikely to me, the European
Japan, sure, but the US is undergoing a rather massive, unprecendented
demographic experiment. There is no question of whether there will be
major change. There is only the question is whether it leaves behind a
merely altered nation or something entirely different.
My guess is that the US will stay intact but turn into Brazil.
> experiment may turn out to be widely successful to the next generation
> (the youth of today) and we could see them merging into one true
> state. If the the present countries become the equal of states in the
That isn't what most people would call "widely successful". The people
who most eagerly wish to build a superstate are not some enlightened
young masses, it's are the people who benefit from such a development -
and that's the political elite who would see their power growing beyond
what they can achieve in smaller countries. If we're heading in that
direction, it's because of too much mass political apathy to resist the
move, not because of some mass activist movement to get there.
The facts on the ground suggest that attitude-wise, the European youth
is moving into the opposite direction. With increased immigration and
travel, we're increasingly meeting the different peoples of the world,
leading to lesser prejudice and greater feelings of ethnic supremacy.
> US, with the population showing the same level of mobility as we see
> in the states - the present countries could not truely be claimed to
> exist as we understand them to be today.
That isn't going to happen. Different languages are a pretty effective
barrier to mobility.
If you want to predict whether there will still be US troops in Germany
in some later era, you have to look at who would evict them. Much of
Germany isn't that happy to have the troops, but they're still getting
subsidized in the defense budget, so they don't have much actual
motivation to boot the troops. Much of the left likes to rail against
the thing, but that's just the thing: the left all over Europe *likes*
having Evil America to complain about. American troops are a very
convenient evil: Germany is not actually being hurt and the troops are
a very convenient evil for the "pacifist" left, so why would they
actually *do* something about them? Germany isn't going to ask for the
troops to leave without an external reason.
On the other side, if the Americans just pulled out without a specific
reason, it would look like a snub. There isn't much obvious motivation
for them to stay in Germany - they're just losing money without gaining
anything (just the opposite, they're probably just creating resentment)
- but there's no obvious excuse for leaving. It would either have to be
a snub, there would have to be a backroom deal to get the Germans to ask
them to leave or there would have to be some context to provide cover
such as reforming US military commitments all over the world or slashing
the military budget.
Japan is different because the US does have an actual motivation to stay
there: they don't have many alternatives for western Pacific bases.
Dan
> earlcolby.pottin...@sympatico.ca <earlcolby.pottin...@sympatico.ca> kirjoitti:
As has already been said conventional wisdon would very much expect
there to be little change in the US germany or US Japan relationship
re troops in the next 37 years but CW has often been wrong in the
past
1902 + 37 takes you from an AustroHungarian Empire as a great power to
Germany has absorbed Austria and Czech lands and of course the Ottoman
empire has lost 2 Balkan Wars, a war with Italy and WW1 over the time
scale.
1909 +37 Germany from a major power, including Alsace Lorraine in the
west and most of what is now Poland in the East and colonies from
Africa, to China to the Pacific, has become a bomed out catastrophe
occupied by 100's of thousands of foreign troops, and would remain
divided for a further 4 decades.
1930 +37 and who would have predicted the entire British and French
colonial empires would have disapeared as well as the WWII changes.
Well hopefully we aare not about to a live through a period as
"interesting as the first half of the 20th centuary but things will
not be as stable as tthe CW assumes.
US troops in Germany. 1989 213,000
4 Heavy divisions in 2 Corps
2 Divisions go To Iraq in Gulf war 1 and are re-patriated to US from
there.
US Army in Germany 1992 122,000
US Army in Germany 1998 62,000
2 Divisions remain through 2004 when plans are announced to remove
them replacing them with 1 Medium Brigade in Germany and a separate
Brigade further East. Reducing US Army Germany from 62,000 to 24,000.
By 2006 1 of the Divisional HQ's has moved to US (the actual troops
are in Iraq) 1st Infantry Division, the remaining 1st Armoured
Division is slated to redeploy to the US by 2010.
2007 as part of plan to grow the total US Army by 74,000 and 33 to 42
Brigades by 2013, the redeployment from Germany of the last 2
remaining heavy Brigades are delayed until 2012 and 2013 respectively
to ensure there is adequate facilities to base both the expanded force
and those forces returning from Germany.
Thus from 1990 to 2013 if present plans are fulfilled the US Army
presence in Germany will have dropped from 213,000 to approximately
23,000, or about 10% of it's original level. It is perfectly
believable that by 2045 the remaining US Army presence will have
gone,
The US Army argues that having significant forces based in Europe
allows the ability to train in partnership with multiple other
militaries, but on present plans leave a Brigade in Germany, a Brigade
in Italy, a Brigade in Romania, could easily fall to 2 brigades or 1
and the German Brigade could easily be moved further east in a further
decade or so.
Even after the Army has gone there will be potential benefits in Air
Force and some support functions remaining, i.e. Military Hospital
exists if there is any need for one anywhere in Europe it might as
well stay where it is.
The USAF has also fallen dramatically since the Cold War falling from
a dozen or so bases to 2 of which only one one host combat aircraft.
Again it is easily beleivable that at least the Combat aircraft will
be gone by 2020.
Japan the changes have not been as dramatic but there was never as
large a presence in the first place. As of 2007 there were 33,000
forces of all kinds in Japan.
There are present plans to withdraw some 8,000 US Marines from Okinawa
were there have been tensions for some time to Guam, there are other
forces also being built up on Guam
so again there are potentially going to be less US forces in Japan in
the immediate future but the idea of total removal is not on the
agenda. However in a timescale of now to 2045 there are multiple
potential flashpoints:
Korea is re-unified
Korea further war
Korea the north collapses and China intervenes.
China v Taiwan fighting,
China and Taiwan peacefully re-unified.
China itself goes through a Soviet Union like collapse or civil war.
So by 2045 a massive build up in Japan, a total pull out as there is
no longer a need, or a removal as Japan is trying to appease a
reurgant china are all possible.
Alfred Montestruc
> AlfredMontestrucwrote:
> > On Apr 1, 2:10 pm, Good Habit <historyru...@hispeed.ch> wrote:
> > > mra...@willamette.edu schrieb:
>
> > > > I feel safe in predicting that the US will have troops in Germany
> > > > and Japan for the next 37 years. My question is, what do you
> > > > think the next 100 years holds for US troops in Germany and Japan?
>
> > > Why '37' years? And why do you feel save in this prediction? I mean
> > > - 37 years ago (1971) most people would have felt 'save' in
> > > predicting that Germany will still be divided in 2008, and that the
> > > USSR would still exist, and be stronger than ever... (whatever they
> > > might claim with hindsight - but very, very, very, very, very, (add
> > > a few million more very here, for convenience) people would have
> > > stated otherwise in 1971, in if they claim otherwise today, they
> > > are suffering from dementia or they are simply lying...
>
> > > So I would not feel save with such a prediction at all, and
> > > certainly not for 100 years... I wouldn't even accept bet's that
> > > all three of this nations (the USA, Japan, and Germany) will still
> > > exist in something like their present form in 2045 (see USSR / GDR
> > > above).
>
> > Famous Science Fiction Author Robert A. Heinlein who had been a naval
> > officer and a working aeronautical engineer predicted in the 1950s in
> > a non-fiction book that the USSR would economically collapse before
> > the end of the 20th century in his book "Expanded Universe".
>
> >http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_A._Heinlein
>
> If I recall correctly, he later decided he'd been wrong.
I think you are deeply mistaken.
At most he said he hoped he was not whistling in the dark.
>
> > A lot of people thought he was wrong, but nobody came looking for him
> > with butterfly nets and it is unfortunate that he did not live quite
> > long enough to see the Berlin wall fall.
>
> > I think it very questionable that in 37 years time the USA will still
> > have troops in either Germany or Japan. It is quite costly and it is
> > not all that popular with the local people and in case you have not
> > noticed, the USA is financially overextended. Budget cuts in US
> > Government operating expenses ARE going to be made, and these seem
> > to be among the least controversial inside the USA.
>
> --
> Dan Goodman
> "I have always depended on the kindness of stranglers."
> Tennessee Williams, A Streetcar Named Expire
> Journalhttp://dsgood.livejournal.com
> Futureshttp://clerkfuturist.wordpress.com