Future US demographics with immigration restrictions
Straha
one. Naturally, we get populistic types whose beaming smiles and
charisma provide an escape from bleak reality. Presume we have a
coalition of the usual/unusual suspects(xenophobes, labor unions,
greens(population increase isn't good for environments)) who manage to
get restrictionism passed this year with the bill put into effect
starting in 2009. Use something like the 1920s immigration restriction
acts as a model for the bill(so the United States cuts off most
immigration besides a small number of immigrants from the EU, first
world east asia, Mexico and the Phillippines). Also presume this bill
includes provisions for strong border enforcement. What happens to
America if this stays in place for a long time?
earlcolby...@sympatico.ca
> Presume that the ongoing rush towards recession actualizes
First, America is not in a recession and even assuming it does so by
the end of the year it will take a few hard years before people will
change their view enough for such restrictions be put in place.
Think more like 2009 for the recession and it does not go away for the
next couple of years. In 2012 it becomes the big platform for change,
it is in place before the end of the year.
Recession however are temporary things, and you probably would see the
country getting back on it's feet at that time too. Expect claims
that the new restrictions are the cause of the turn-around instead of
the real cause from natural economic cycles.
> America if this stays in place for a long time?
It can't hold out for long (a decade?) because of both internal/
external pressures to let certain people in.
zonker
The retrictions would last at most twenty years. One side effect could
be more mechanization of farm work, which would mean after the
retrictions were dropped there would simply be less jobs in that
sector.
peace
Zonker
earlcolby...@sympatico.ca
I don't see how it can last for twenty years. America imports people
for a lot more than their use in manual labour.
While a lot of the pressure for high tech immigrants is for their
lower costs (salary) there are also fields that have a shortage of
workers period.
eatfastnoodle
I won't see how you can enforce people away from a 2000 miles border.
It's impossible, the cost and manpower required for such operation
would be astronomical to say the least. Plus, as unpleasant as it
might sound to anti-immigrants folks, America NEEDS immigrants,
illegal for manual, construction and farm work, legal for high-tech,
engineering or research jobs. Just go to any college campus, go to the
grad school to take a look at the ethnic makeup of science and
engineering department, you will see why it's impossible to shut the
door to at least the portion of immigrants that Silicon valley and
academia need. American students have been deserting science and
engineering for decades, to change that requires a fundamental change
of attitude, as history teaches us, the most change-resistant part of
human is the human mind set. Especially if the changes requires much
harder work in boring area that will make you a instant target of
bullying in school.