Prediction: The People's Republic of China Will Last Longer than the Soviet Union Did
mra...@willamette.edu
Anyone think it will collapse before then?
--
Mike Ralls
Ivan
> It only has to last past 2023 to last longer than the Soviet Union.
> Anyone think it will collapse before then?
Just my own pessimistic opinion, but perhaps you should have been asking if
we think that it's going to collapse along with the rest of the globalised
economies before then.. IMV the fault lines are beginning to show already.
David Kohlhoff
It's possible. Most Chinese growth isn't built on economically
sustainable foundations. Many of the submerged fractures in Chinese
society will resurface when growth slows. For one thing the World Bank
suggests China economy is no larger than Germany's after correcting
for massive errors in past PPP calculations.
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=19709
This means China has more poor people than we thought.
A conflict between the US and China (or even through proxies as in the
Korean War) could destabilize China in the long run. Afghanistan may
have had a hand in the events leading to USSR's collapse.
One of the things to remember is that China is going to be entering a
period of social anxiety as the gender imbalance generations reach
maturity.
Jack May
"David Kohlhoff" <dkoh...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:ab642c96-058e-41c2...@2g2000hsn.googlegroups.com...
> On Apr 14, 11:59 am, mra...@willamette.edu wrote:
>> It only has to last past 2023 to last longer than the Soviet Union.
>> Anyone think it will collapse before then?
>>
>> --
>> Mike Ralls
>
> It's possible. Most Chinese growth isn't built on economically
> sustainable foundations. Many of the submerged fractures in Chinese
> society will resurface when growth slows. For one thing the World Bank
> suggests China economy is no larger than Germany's after correcting
> for massive errors in past PPP calculations.
> http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=19709
There are claims that much of the Chinese economic growth is caused by
companies buying stock of other Chinese companies instead of producing
products. That is a classic bubble economy that will collapse in the near
future.
Alfred Montestruc
> "David Kohlhoff" <dkohlh...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
Well I don't know about that, but I do know they are producing a huge
amount of products for sale overseas, and industrial infrastructure,
things like ships, offshore, drilling rigs and machine tools.
It is far from "all" smoke and mirrors.
jerry warner
Ivan wrote:
On tonight's news in my media market, KGAN TV
predicted (celebrated!) $7 to $10 per gallon gas. Lats
year the same morons predicted $5 per gallon gas. I can
never understand their addiction to misery but, $7-$10
gas would collapse the economy of every person I know
and this whole State. No question about it. Apparently that
is what these media witches want, and may get.
jerry warner
That is exactly correct. They are "technology" poor and my
sons company is being very careful not to let them have our
technology which translates into not setting up in China but
only selling finished research products to them.
The money flowing into China investment is all speculation
investment, and investment on investment, for making
outsiders money. The whole thing could collapse over night
and probably will. Its a panzi scheme and Buish refuses to
do anything about his friends doing it while it artificially raises
oil prices and wreck our own economy.
I dont think the elections will solve the problem. Its already
too late. The economy is going to collapse with runaway
oil inflation. The rest of the world could care less if we exist
one more hour, or not! And the Chinese would survuve and
grow no matter what we do. A world without America is just
more room for China and the third world.
Our local media morons (KGAN TV) told us tonight to"prepare for $10
a gallon gas within two years". That
will collpase this State.
Ivan
Although here in the UK at £1.20 per liter, diesel now works out at around
$10.80 per ('UK') gallon yesterday money experts on a BBC radio programme
predicted that unleaded petrol could reach as high as £1.50 per liter come
summer.