OT| U.S. Study Paints Somber Portrait of Iraqi Discord
Bruce Morgen
U.S. Study Paints Somber Portrait of Iraqi Discord
By ERIC SCHMITT and EDWARD WONG
WASHINGTON, April 8 — An internal staff report by the United States Embassy and the military
command in Baghdad provides a sobering province-by-province snapshot of Iraq's political, economic
and security situation, rating the overall stability of 6 of the 18 provinces "serious" and one
"critical." The report is a counterpoint to some recent upbeat public statements by top American
politicians and military officials.
The report, 10 pages of briefing points titled "Provincial Stability Assessment," underscores the
shift in the nature of the Iraq war three years after the toppling of Saddam Hussein. Warnings of
sectarian and ethnic frictions are raised in many regions, even in those provinces generally
described as nonviolent by American officials.
There are alerts about the growing power of Iranian-backed religious Shiite parties, several of
which the United States helped put into power, and rival militias in the south. The authors also
point to the Arab-Kurdish fault line in the north as a major concern, with the two ethnicities
vying for power in Mosul, where violence is rampant, and Kirkuk, whose oil fields are critical for
jump-starting economic growth in Iraq.
The patterns of discord mapped by the report confirm that ethnic and religious schisms have become
entrenched across much of the country, even as monthly American fatalities have fallen. Those
indications, taken with recent reports of mass migrations from mixed Sunni-Shiite areas, show that
Iraq is undergoing a de facto partitioning along ethnic and sectarian lines, with clashes —
sometimes political, sometimes violent — taking place in those mixed areas where different groups
meet.
The report, the first of its kind, was written over a six-week period by a joint civilian and
military group in Baghdad that wanted to provide a baseline assessment for conditions that new
reconstruction teams would face as they were deployed to the provinces, said Daniel Speckhard, an
American ambassador in Baghdad who oversees reconstruction efforts.
The writers included officials from the American Embassy's political branch, reconstruction
agencies and the American military command in Baghdad, Mr. Speckhard said. The authors also
received information from State Department officers in the provinces, he said.
The report was part of a periodic briefing on Iraq that the State Department provides to Congress,
and has been shown to officials on Capitol Hill, including those involved in budgeting for the
reconstruction teams. It is not clear how many top American officials have seen it; the report has
not circulated widely at the Defense Department or the National Security Council, spokesmen there
said.
A copy of the report, which is not classified, was provided to The New York Times by a government
official in Washington who opposes the way the war is being conducted and said the confidential
assessment provided a more realistic gauge of stability in Iraq than the recent portrayals by
senior military officers. It is dated Jan. 31, 2006, three weeks before the bombing of a revered
Shiite shrine in Samarra, which set off reprisals that killed hundreds of Iraqis. Recent updates to
the report are minor and leave its conclusions virtually unchanged, Mr. Speckhard said.
The general tenor of the Bush administration's comments on Iraq has been optimistic. On Thursday,
President Bush argued in a speech that his strategy was working despite rising violence in Iraq.
Vice President Dick Cheney, on the CBS News program "Face the Nation," suggested last month that
the administration's positive views were a better reflection of the conditions in Iraq than news
media reports.
"I think it has less to do with the statements we've made, which I think were basically accurate
and reflect reality," Mr. Cheney said, "than it does with the fact that there's a constant sort of
perception, if you will, that's created because what's newsworthy is the car bomb in Baghdad."
In their public comments, the White House and the Pentagon have used daily attack statistics as a
measure of stability in the provinces. Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, a senior military spokesman in
Baghdad, told reporters recently that 12 of 18 provinces experienced "less than two attacks a day."
Gen. Peter Pace, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on the NBC News program "Meet the
Press" on March 5 that the war in Iraq was "going very, very well," although a few days later, he
acknowledged serious difficulties.
In recent interviews and speeches, some administration officials have begun to lay out the
deep-rooted problems plaguing the American enterprise here. At the forefront has been Zalmay
Khalilzad, the American ambassador, who has said the invasion opened a "Pandora's box" and, on
Friday, warned that a civil war here could engulf the entire Middle East.
On Saturday, Mr. Khalilzad and Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the senior military commander in Iraq,
issued a statement praising some of the political and security goals achieved in the last three
years, but also cautioning that "despite much progress, much work remains."
Mr. Speckhard, the ambassador overseeing reconstruction, said the report was not as dire as its
assessments might suggest. "Really, this shows there's one province that continues to be a major
challenge," he said. "There are a number of others that have significant work to do in them. And
there are other parts of the country that are doing much better."
But the report's capsule summaries of each province offer some surprisingly gloomy news. The
report's formula for rating stability takes into account governing, security and economic issues.
The oil-rich Basra Province, where British troops have patrolled in relative calm for most of the
last three years, is now rated as "serious."
The report defines "serious" as having "a government that is not fully formed or cannot serve the
needs of its residents; economic development that is stagnant with high unemployment, and a
security situation marked by routine violence, assassinations and extremism."
British fatalities have been on the rise in Basra in recent months, with attacks attributed to
Shiite insurgents. There is a "high level of militia activity including infiltration of local
security forces," the report says. "Smuggling and criminal activity continues unabated.
Intimidation attacks and assassination are common."
The report states that economic development in the region, long one of the poorest in Iraq, is
"hindered by weak government."
The city of Basra has widely been reported as devolving into a mini-theocracy, with government and
security officials beholden to Shiite religious leaders, enforcing bans on alcohol and mandating
head scarves for women. Police cars and checkpoints are often decorated with posters or stickers of
Moktada al-Sadr, the rebellious cleric, or Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, a cleric whose party is very close
to Iran. Both men have formidable militias.
Mr. Hakim's party controls the provincial councils of eight of the nine southern provinces, as well
as the council in Baghdad.
In a color-coded map included in the report, the province of Anbar, the wide swath of western
desert that is the heart of the Sunni Arab insurgency, is depicted in red, for "critical." The six
provinces categorized as "serious" — Basra, Baghdad, Diyala and three others to the north — are
orange. Eight provinces deemed "moderate" are in yellow, and the three Kurdish provinces are
depicted in green, for "stable."
The "critical" security designation, the report says, means a province has "a government that is
not functioning" or that is only "represented by a single strong leader"; "an economy that does
have the infrastructure or government leadership to develop and is a significant contributor to
instability"; and "a security situation marked by high levels of AIF [anti-Iraq forces] activity,
assassinations and extremism."
The most surprising assessments are perhaps those of the nine southern provinces, none of which are
rated "stable." The Bush administration often highlights the relative lack of violence in those
regions.
For example, the report rates as "moderate" the two provinces at the heart of Shiite religious
power, Najaf and Karbala, and points to the growing Iranian political presence there. In Najaf,
"Iranian influence on provincial government of concern," the report says. Both the governor and
former governor of Najaf are officials in Mr. Hakim's religious party, founded in Iran in the early
1980's. The report also notes that "there is growing tension between Mahdi Militia and Badr Corps
that could escalate" — referring to the private armies of Mr. Sadr and Mr. Hakim, which have
clashed before.
The report does highlight two bright spots for Najaf. The provincial government is able to maintain
stability for the province and provide for the people's needs, it says, and religious tourism
offers potential for economic growth.
But insurgents still manage to occasionally penetrate the tight ring of security. A car bomb
exploded Thursday near the golden-domed Imam Ali Shrine, killing at least 10 people and wounding
dozens.
Immediately to the north, Babil Province, an important strategic area abutting Baghdad, also has
"strong Iranian influence apparent within council," the report says. There is "ethnic conflict in
north Babil," and "crime is a major factor within the province." In addition, "unemployment remains
high."
Throughout the war, American commanders have repeatedly tried to pacify northern Babil, a farming
area with a virulent Sunni Arab insurgency, but they have had little success. In southern Babil,
the new threat is Shiite militiamen who are pushing up from Shiite strongholds like Najaf and
Karbala and beginning to develop rivalries among themselves.
Gen. Qais Hamza al-Maamony, the commander of Babil's 8,000-member police force, said his officers
were not ready yet to intervene between warring militias, should it come to that, as many fear.
"They would be too frightened to get into the middle," he said in an interview.
If the American troops left Babil, he said, "the next day would be civil war."
_____
Eric Schmitt reported from Washington for this article, and Edward Wong from Baghdad. Jeffrey
Gettleman contributed reporting from Hilla, Iraq, and Abdul Razzaq al-Saiedi from Baghdad.
Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company
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> April 9, 2006
> U.S. Study Paints Somber Portrait of Iraqi Discord
> By ERIC SCHMITT and EDWARD WONG
>
So...tell us again..
Why do you post this here?
Do you think the Times' website doesn't work?
Doug
Bruce Morgen
Which part of "OT" don't you
understand, the "O" or the
"T?" As the late and
unlamented Lard Vulva would
say, "no likee, no clickee."
Simple!