The Obama administration is rallying allies to push for a package with
better border security and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants
now in the U.S. The effort is sure to be a tough sell.
Reporting from Washington - With the healthcare battle still unfinished,
the Obama administration has been laying plans to take up an issue that
could prove even more divisive -- a major overhaul of the nation's
immigration system.
Senior White House aides privately have assured Latino activists that the
president will back legislation next year to provide a path to citizenship
for the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants living in the United
States.
In a recent conference call with proponents, White House Deputy Chief of
Staff Jim Messina, political director Patrick Gaspard and others delivered
the message that the White House was committed to seeing a substantial
immigration bill pass and wanted to make sure allies were prepared for the
fight.
In addition to the citizenship provision, the emerging plan will emphasize
efforts to secure U.S. borders against those trying to cross illegally.
But that two-track approach was rejected repeatedly in the past by
Republicans and other critics who insist that a border crackdown must
demonstrate its effectiveness before any action on citizenship is
considered.
Whatever proposal Obama puts forward will probably meet equally determined
opposition. Another complication is the calendar: Midterm elections are in
November, and polls show that the public is more worried about joblessness
and the fragile economy than anything else.
So embracing an immigration bill is a gamble for the White House, which
already has a packed agenda for 2010: economic recovery, global warming
legislation and tougher regulation of financial institutions.
No matter what the environment, immigration is a tough sell, said
Democratic pollster Geoff Garin.
"We know from a lot of experience that immigration reform has been and can
be a very polarizing issue. There are heated differences about whether
there ought to be some kind of pathway to citizenship for people who
entered the country illegally," he said.
"And my sense from the public-opinion research is people care more about
vindicating their position than they do about getting the issue solved."
Even so, the White House apparently has decided to press ahead.
In an effort to enlist the kind of business support that helped drive its
healthcare initiative, for example, administration officials have reached
out to the National Restaurant Assn., which represents an industry that
employs thousands of immigrants. Earlier this year, the new head of the
association, Dawn Sweeney, met with Cecilia Mu�oz, a White House aide
involved in the issue, and expressed interest in cooperating.
"It's an extremely important issue for our members," said Sweeney, whose
group could exert grass-roots pressure on lawmakers.
As a candidate, Obama vowed to take up immigration during his first year
in office. That deadline will come and go. Further delay could anger
Latino voters, who came out in force for the president and congressional
Democrats in 2008.
No one anticipates that a core element of the Democratic base will defect
to the Republican Party in November. But even a significant drop in
turnout -- which often happens in nonpresidential elections -- could
frustrate Democratic efforts to preserve their congressional majority.
"The bulk of the people needing immigration reform are Latino," said Rep.
Raul M. Grijalva (D-Ariz.). "There's a level of disenchantment about where
we're going. . . . And if you don't give the Latino community a reason to
participate [in the elections], you weaken your base even more."
For an immigration bill to have a realistic shot of passing next year,
political analysts said, the particulars would have to be agreed upon by
the spring. A delay would increase the likelihood of the issue getting
derailed by the November elections.
Henry G. Cisneros, a Cabinet secretary in the Clinton administration who
took part in the recent immigration conference call with the Obama White
House, said: "It gets much more difficult as the year goes along. So
everyone has to be very sober about the prospects. But the president and
congressional leadership understand it's important to start the ball
rolling."
An immigration bill was introduced in the House earlier in the month, and
Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who chairs a subcommittee on
immigration, is heading the effort to cobble together a bipartisan
coalition in the Senate.
But Democrats may not have a lock on one prominent Republican who has
worked in the past to revamp the immigration system: Arizona Sen. John
McCain.
McCain backed President George W. Bush's failed attempt to overhaul
immigration in his second term. But he has not committed to supporting the
Obama bill, saying he worried the president would not endorse a temporary
guest-worker program.
Organized labor, an important part of the Democratic base, has voiced
opposition to a guest-worker program under which more immigrants could
enter the country on a temporary basis. Critics argue that there is no
effective system for ensuring that such workers will leave the country
when their permits expire.
"From everything that we hear right now, the temporary guest-worker
program won't be addressed in immigration reform. And unless that is an
essential part of the reform program, it's something that Sen. McCain
can't work on," said Brooke Buchanan, a spokeswoman for the Arizona
lawmaker.
The White House would not reveal its position on the guest-worker issue.
Should an immigration bill gain traction, White House Chief of Staff Rahm
Emanuel would probably be a central player in the negotiations.
As an aide to President Clinton, Emanuel co-wrote a memo on the political
dynamics of immigration. He and Ron Klain, now the top aide to Vice
President Joe Biden, wrote in 1994: "We must be seen as taking proper,
forceful steps to seriously address the immigration problem without
alienating the Hispanic and civil rights constituencies.
"Our goal is not to outdo the Republicans, rather to use our achievements
and proposals to prevent them from using this as a wedge issue against
us."
The former head of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, Doris
Meissner, recalled that Emanuel once phoned and berated her over a news
story about lax border enforcement in Arizona.
"This kind of press is killing us," Meissner quoted Emanuel as saying.
During the call, he instructed her to send border agents to the area
immediately. "He had no authority whatsoever to give me orders," Meissner
said.
But Emanuel was constantly pressing his colleagues in the Clinton White
House to push what he termed a "balanced" immigration policy -- including
enforcement and stepped-up grants of citizenship.
--
Nancy Pelosi, Democrat criminal, accessory before and after the fact, to
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles B. Rangel of New York's
million dollar tax evasion. Charles B. Rangel is still under
"investigation" by a "closed door" House Ethics Committee.
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