Carbon dioxide production by benthic bacteria: the death of manmade global warming theory?
d....@hotmail.com
that was published on his server at: www.geoclimaticstudies.info/benthic_bacteria.htm.
He says that a 'client' wrote paper. Whoever wrote the paper was under
the influence of powerful drugs.The paper is no longer available in
full because the DNS translation no longer works. A little digging
reveals that Thorpe's webserver is at IP: 193.254.210.164 and that ftp
access is available to authorized persons. I mention these details so
that a hacker greater than I might hack into Thorpe's server and
retreave the paper is full. Maybe Thorpe will release the http paper
if he is put under a little pressure.
A partial version of his paper is available in the Google cache but it
lacks the illustrations. So far, the paper has not shown up in the
Waybackmachine. In the interests of preserving the history of the
global warming debate I will reproduce as much as can of his paper
below. Those who wish to see the equations, which are extremely
bizarre, should visit the Google cache page at:
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Journal of Geoclimatic Studies (2007) 13:3. 223-231
DOI:152.9967/r755100729-450172-00-4
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Carbon dioxide production by benthic bacteria: the death of manmade
global warming theory?
Daniel A Klein*, Mandeep J Gupta*, Philip Cooper**, Arne FR Jansson**.
*Department of Climatology, University of Arizona; **Department of
Atmospheric Physics, Göteborgs Universitet (University of Gothenburg,
Sweden.)
Received: 18 February 2007 / Accepted: 9th August 2007 / Published
online: 3rd November 2007
©Inst Geoclimatic Studies 2007
Abstract
It is now well-established that rising global temperatures are largely
the result of increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. The "consensus" position attributes the increase in
atmospheric CO2 to the combustion of fossil fuels by industrial
processes. This is the mechanism which underpins the theory of manmade
global warming.
Our data demonstrate that those who subscribe to the consensus theory
have overlooked the primary source of carbon dioxide emissions. While
a small part of the rise in emissions is attributable to industrial
activity, it is greatly outweighed (by >300 times) by rising volumes
of CO2 produced by saprotrophic eubacteria living in the sediments of
the continental shelves fringing the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Moreover, the bacterial emissions, unlike industrial CO2, precisely
match the fluctuations in global temperature over the past 140 years.
This paper also posits a mechanism for the increase in bacterial CO2
emissions. A series of natural algal blooms, beginning in the late
19th Century, have caused mass mortality among the bacteria's major
predators: brachiopod molluscs of the genus Tetrarhynchia. These
periods of algal bloom, as the palaeontological record shows, have
been occurring for over three million years, and are always
accompanied by a major increase in carbon dioxide emissions, as a
result of the multiplication of bacteria when predator pressure is
reduced. They generally last for 150-200 years. If the current episode
is consistent with this record, we should expect carbon dioxide
emissions to peak between now and mid-century, then return to
background levels. Our data suggest that current concerns about
manmade global warming are unfounded.
Keywords: global warming, carbon dioxide, eubacteria, Tetrarhynchia,
benthic, numerical modelling.
Introduction
Manmade global warming theory could fairly be described as the
dominant scientific concern of our age. A huge volume (>10,000) of
papers and expert reports warns of impending catastrophe if the
consumption of fossil fuels and the resultant emissions of carbon
dioxide are not curbed. This theory now has a major influence on
policy among most of the governments of the developed world, and an
increasing number of governments in the developing world. The cost of
current plans to combat this perceived problem is likely by the end of
the 21st Century to outweigh the combined costs of global spending on
transport and health (Amstel and Barnes, 2006).
The proposed mechanism for radiative forcing caused by carbon dioxide
emissions is straightforward. Rising CO2 concentrations in the
atmosphere do not impede shortwave solar radiation from reaching the
earth's surface, but they do prevent the reflection of some long-wave
radiation from the earth's surface back into space. The net effect is
atmospheric warming (positive radiative forcing), as incoming heat
exceeds reflected heat.
This process is well-established. The question, however, centres on
the source of the carbon dioxide emissions required to cause the
current warming trend. The "consensus" theory suffers from a major and
fundamental flaw: the volume of carbon dioxide required to cause the
current increase in atmospheric concentrations and the resultant rise
in global temperature (0.7°C over the pre-industrial mean) is two
orders of magnitude greater than the total volume of manmade emissions
(Wu, 2003).
Over the past 140 years, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have risen
from ̴ 280ppmv to 379ppmv (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
2007a). Total emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in this
period can account for a rise of only 0.3-0.4ppmv - in other words,
only one third of one per cent of the total increase (Wu, 2003). This
inconvenient truth is well-known among climate scientists, and the
simple arithmetic behind Wu's analysis has yet to be challenged,
though four years have elapsed since it was first published. Instead,
it is simply ignored or overlooked by all those who subscribe to the
"consensus" position. A comprehensive analysis of the assessment
reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
shows that this - the most fundamental problem with the manmade global
warming model - has not been acknowledged by the panel, let alone
addressed (Klein and Gupta, 2006). When we have challenged prominent
climate scientists who subscribe to the climate change "consensus",
our concerns are met with evasion and in some cases aggression.
Discussion of this issue has been all but prohibited by the editors of
peer-reviewed scientific journals. This journal is a courageous
exception, but it too has come under great pressure not to raise the
issue. There is, we conclude, simply too much at stake.
If carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are far too small to
have caused the current rise in atmospheric concentrations, there must
be another, and much greater, source. Having examined all the possible
terrestrial sources of atmospheric carbon dioxide, we found that only
one had the potential to be commensurate with the volume of additions
to atmospheric CO2 required to account for a rise of 99ppmv.
The metabolic pathway of saprotrophic eubacteria is identical to that
described by the Kattweizel-Gruhe Cycle for multicellular organisms
(Rosetti and Hirsch, 1966). The principal respiratory product is
carbon dioxide. But the total mass of benthic bacteria outweighs the
mass of all other organisms using the Kattweizel-Gruhe Cycle by
approximately 30:1 (Mitsui et al, 1998). Significant fluctuations in
benthic eubacterial populations are therefore likely to cause far
greater impacts on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations than all
other ecosystem effects.
The palaeontological record shows that, from the early Pliocene
onwards, benthic bacterial communities have undergone violent
fluctuations in mass (Tibbold, 1996). The relationship with algal
blooms, whose breakdown product (difluoroethylene sulphate) is toxic
to the primary eubacterial predators - Tetrarhynchia brachiopods - is
also well-known (Dillon, 1998; Wyn Jones and Torres, 2001). We set out
to test the hypothesis that fluctuating volumes of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere result from fluctuating populations of benthic
eubacteria. Not only did we discover that the volume of carbon dioxide
produced by the bacteria over the past 140 years precisely matches the
increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, our data also show
that trends in bacterial population precisely match changes in
atmospheric concentrations over that period. We therefore propose the
hypothesis that "manmade global warming" is actually the product of
changing population patterns among benthic bacteria.
Methodology
Using the data on benthic bacterial populations produced by Parker
(2003) and Parker and Birch (2005), we calculated the mean mass of
bacteria per square metre of continental shelf between 61°S and 67°N
(the primary zones of bacterial activity). Using the Bonner Index of
oceanographic dimension (Katsu, 1986) we were then able to employ the
LOYDENT4M three-dimensional modelling equation to produce a global
estimate of benthic eubacterial mass. This is defined as:
Q³uct + 3Ψ = XFº x Δjy {(∑y,ct79 + θtq-1)- λjc +2}
Δ³-¾Φ²,Ω13b
Where Q is raw mass, u is area, c is osmotic conductivity, Ψ is the
vertical (neo-Falkian) benthic discontinuity, X is concretised
diachronic invariance (P-series), F is trans-dimensional flow
structure and jy is the non-rectilineal harmonic regressivity of the
constant Δ.
The control run was defined as:
Q³uct, jyΦ = ∑cy³11
using the relative standard error:
∑Ψ λΔ23=θ2c
This gives an outing variable of less than the value of θ14Ω, which is
corrected by the antedenoidal deterministic yield factor j.
The CGM values are located between 0 and 2.25% to account for inter-
annual variability of the asynchronistic (counterbifurcated) non-
tardigrade log run.
Palaeodata were drawn from Tibbold (1996) and Tibbold and Rawsthorne
(1998), using the living bacterial mass : fossil ratio developed by
Hering et al (1977) and refined by Xang (2000), then fed into the same
LOYDENT4M three-dimensional modelling equation, using control run:
Q²uct, yΦ³= ∑cy³42
Quantified preparations of Polybacter spp were then cultivated in
laboratory conditions at a constant temperature of 6°C and a constant
pressure of 41 atmospheres and an oxygen content of 2.3% to simulate
averaged conditions in the benthic environment (Ragnsdottir 2003).
The carbon dioxide released was collected in a Willetts inverter and
passed through a zinc-loaded demi-osmotic membrane before being
subject to the standard Smithian analysis using the C33 marker.
Carbon dioxide production from the Polybacter sample was calculated
as:
4δ161 x Λ³Жญ5,6,1,8Φ-4 = {(ΣΨ²Њyt3 - 14๖P9) x 49}
2β x ⅜kxgt -§
Where δ is bacterial mass, Λ is substrate volume,ญ is the square root
of the constant Ψ and Њyt is the polychromatic "coffeeground" Schumann
factor for semi-particulate distribution.
The relative standard error was:
δ²Φ - 3hrtЊ
All analyses were conducted with P software.
Results
Bacterial mass was found to fluctuate between 4.3 x 10ˉ²¹g/m² and 7.1
x 10ˉ³²g/m² in a regular cycle, with a periodicity of 450,000 years,
across the past 3my, as described by Figure 1.
Figure 1: Mean mass fluctuations of benthic eubacteria on the Pacific
and Atlantic continental shelves since the early Pliocene.
Bacterial mass has been rising over the past 140 years and is
currently approaching its periodical peak, as described by Figure 2.
Figure 2: Mean mass fluctuations of benthic eubacteria on the Pacific
and Atlantic continental shelves since 1860.
Total carbon dioxide emissions from benthic eubacteria were found to
fluctuate, in line with the periodicity of of bacterial mass
fluctuations, from 2.1GtC yr–1 to 8.8GtC yr–1. These were were plotted
against known changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007b) over the past 3my,
as shown in Figure 3:
Figure 3: Temporal evolution of carbon dioxide emissions from benthic
eubacteria on the Pacific and Atlantic continental shelves since the
early Pliocene, plotted against known changes in atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations.
Fluctuations in carbon dioxide emissions from benthic eubacteria were
then plotted in finer detail against known changes in atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentrations (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change 2007b) over the past 140 years, as Figure 4 shows:
Figure 4: Temporal evolution of carbon dioxide emissions from benthic
eubacteria on the Pacific and Atlantic continental shelves since 1860,
plotted against known changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations.
Known averaged global temperature records over the past 140 years
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007c) were then run
against fluctuations in carbon dioxide emissions from benthic
eubacteria, as Figure 5 demonstrates:
Figure 5: Known temperature changes since 1860, plotted against
temporal evolution of carbon dioxide emissions from benthic
eubacteria.
It is clear that a precise match has been obtained, with an average
timelag of 12.2 years, as standard atmospheric chemistry would predict
(Crutzen and Lelieveld 2001).
The same could not be said of the relationship between temperatures
and industrial (manmade) carbon dioxide emissions, as Figure 6 shows:
Figure 6: Known temperature changes since 1860, plotted against known
temporal evolution of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel
combustion.
Discussion
It was not our intention in researching this issue to disprove manmade
global warming theory. We have received no funds, directly or
indirectly, from fossil fuel companies and have no personal interest
in the outcome of the debate. We simply noticed an anomaly in the
figures used by those who accept the "consensus" position on climate
change and sought to investigate it. But the findings presented in
this paper could not be more damaging to manmade global warming theory
or to the thousands of climate scientists who have overlooked -
sometimes, we fear, deliberately - the anomaly. We have found a near-
perfect match between the levels of carbon dioxide produced by benthic
eubacteria and recent global temperature records. By contrast we note
what must be obvious to all those who have studied the figures with an
open mind: a very poor match between carbon dioxide produced by
burning fossil fuels and recent global temperature records.
Moreover we note that there is no possible mechanism by which
industrial emissions could have caused the recent temperature
increase, as they are two orders of magnitude too small to have
exerted an effect of this size. We have no choice but to conclude that
the recent increase in global temperatures, which has caused so much
disquiet among policy makers, bears no relation to industrial
emissions, but is in fact a natural phenomenom.
These findings place us in a difficult position. We feel an obligation
to publish, both in the cause of scientific objectivity and to prevent
a terrible mistake - with extremely costly implications - from being
made by the world's governments. But we recognise that in doing so, we
lay our careers on the line. As we have found in seeking to broach
this issue gently with colleagues, and in attempting to publish these
findings in other peer-reviewed journals, the "consensus" on climate
change is enforced not by fact but by fear. We have been warned,
collectively and individually, that in bringing our findings to public
attention we are not only likely to be deprived of all future sources
of funding, but that we also jeopardise the funding of the departments
for which we work.
We believe that academic intimidation of this kind contradicts the
spirit of open enquiry in which scientific investigations should be
conducted. We deplore the aggressive responses we encountered before
our findings were published, and fear the reaction this paper might
provoke. But dangerous as these findings are, we feel we have no
choice but to publish.
References
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Crutzen, PJ and J Lelieveld (2001). Human impacts on atmospheric
chemistry. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 29. 17-45.
Dillon, NRI (1998). Ecological implications of algal blooms in the
eastern Pacific. Journal of Ocean Biochemistry, 36:1. 1146-1159.
Hering, J, HR Nissan, ML Hill, S Byers, LT Cummins-Pearce (1977).
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http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
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Institute of Geoclimatic Studies, Climatological Department, Okinawa
University, Okinawa OK-184NJ, Japan
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David Thorpe, "The Low Carbon Kid" is responsible for a fancy spoof
that was published on his server at:
www.geoclimaticstudies.info/benthic_bacteria.htm.
He says that a 'client' wrote paper. Whoever wrote the paper was under
the influence of powerful drugs.
[much snippage]
The way to determine who actually wrote the paper would be through lexical
analysis, word frequencies, phraseology, etc. David Thorpe is an author, so
his writing is available. A lexical analysis comparing this 4000 word paper
with Thorpe's writing could prove or disprove if Thorpe wrote it. It would
be interesting to see if the paper was written by someone who has something
to hide, perhaps a high ranking global warming scientist who could lose his
tenure if 'outed'.