Ray
Exhibit A: read carefully this abstract (remember the big deal you
guys make about the "Artic" being a canary in the coal mine):
http://www.db.arm.gov/cgi-bin/IOP2/selectPreProposal.pl?proposalNo=3120
Scientific Requirement (succinct statement of underlying hypothesis or
technical goal for proposed research):
One of the greatest challenges facing the arctic climate modeling
community is the lack of data and knowledge about atmospheric processes
in the Arctic. There are very few long term, high quality datasets for
the Arctic Region. Most existing datasets are collected on a campaign
basis and designed for process studies with duration of a few weeks.
Atmospheric processes are very different in the arctic compared to
lower latitudes due to the extreme temperatures and sun conditions
allowing for unique processes to take place. Existing climatologies
(like ISCCP) of clouds and surface conditions are known to have large
errors but is still extensively used in lack of better datasets. The
largest errors in GCM model results are anticipated to be caused by the
treatment of clouds and aerosols and corresponding feedbacks in the
models (Tao et al., 1996; Stamnes et al., 1999, Yan et al., 2002). The
discrepancy in cloud radiative forcing in terms of response to CO2
increase is large, both in sign, amplitude, and between long-wave and
short-wave radiation. This reflects the sensitivity of the simulated
feedbacks to model formulation (ICCP, 2001; Watterson et al., 1999; Yao
and Del Genio, 1999; Meleshko et al., 2000).
"Further research is needed to prove the anthropogenic Global Warming
hypothesis" -- Ray Lopez
No, what is needed is to know the extent and effects of anthropogenic GW.
The debate is over. Planning to survive and live well is the discussion
from now on.
Why? We're already seeing plenty of evidence in other places.
> A discussion of the semantics of "theory" vs "hypothesis" is not useful.
If one doesn't understand even the basic idea of what a theory is, any
statements involving science are suspect.
> Three force 4 or higher hurricanes either side of mexico in 23 days.
This contradicts your case.
True enough, the Gulf of Mexico is warmer than normal.
But Kenneth peaked in much cooler waters and still reached Category 4.
Hmm... and the Gulf is only slightly warmer than normal:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/US058VMET-GIFwxg.NCODA.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
My point is: GLOBAL WARMING BRINGS MORE STORMS OF GREATER INTENSITY
MORE FREQUENTLY.
Three, count 'em *_3_* hurricanes of force 4 or higher in 23 days.
Thats more intensity more often. That's my point. That's the point you
need to understand. That's the point you need to memorize. That's the
point that you need to act on.
And Katrina did not even cool the Gulf waters significantly, so another
hurricane reached Katrina force just 23 days later over the same
waters.
The waters of the Gulf are about 25°C. The cloud tops of Rita are
about -70°C to -80°C. That is about 100 degrees difference in a
distance of about 12 kilometers. Each change of one degree C to a CC of
water, one gram of water, is one calorie. If we knew how much water was
being lifted by Rita we could figure out how many calories of energy
there are in those waters.
We can figure out how much water is being lifted. The National
Hurricane Center is taking constant measurements.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Here's some raw data for figuring the math:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/220249.shtml
"... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ..."
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. ..."
>From this we can figure the speed covering a radius of the
hurricane-portion of the system.
9 mph forward motion, diameter of hurricane force winds is 140 miles,
it takes 15.5 hours to traverse one storm diameter. The rainfall in
that peak area is 8" to 12" up to peak of 15" maximum. Choosing the
lowest number 8" over 15.5 hours will give us some number we can use.
The area of a circle is Pi x R^2, = 15393.8 square miles.
8" of water = 20.32 cm.
15393.8 square miles = 398,697,600,000,000 sq. cm
398,697,600,000,000 sq. cm x 20.32 cm = 8,101,535,232,000,000,000 cubic
centimeters = calories.
That's how many calories it takes to raise those CCs by each degree.
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 = 9.422085e+012 kilowatt-hours
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 = 9.422085e+009 megawatt-hours
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 = 3.214949e+016 BTUs
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 = 3.391951e+013 megajoules
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 = 1.263522e+013 horspower-hours
This is not even counting the energy required to go from liquid phase
to gasous phase without any raise in temperature (600 cal per gram, per
CC).
You can multiply those numbers by about 700 (kilowatt-hours,
megawatt-hours, BTUs, megajoules, horsepower-hours) to see how much
heat is being extracted from the ocean and turned into death.
This is what Global Warming is ALL about. It takes storms of this
power, this often, to barely keep up with the heat going into the
system, trapped under greenhouse gases, during this part of summer.
OCTOBER is when the big storms hit, traditionally. This is just a
PREVIEW.
The effects are less well known. The Earth hasn't seen this much
greenhouse forcing for 60 million years, the time of the dinosaurs.
Every week new scientific reports of AGW effects are published.
The sites of these effects are from every point on the globe. The
overwhelming majority of the effects are both harmful and
increasing. It is not a pretty picture of a "Greening Earth."
That is why we have research programs.
The call says nothing whatsoever about the validity of predictions of
global anthropogenic climate change. A call for proposals doesn't
change the context in which informed opinion operates.
mt
The facts are facts. Semantics are for lawyers.
We are in a period of apparent warming, if you believe a certain set of
data.
But consider this:
While Arctic seems to be shrinking in ice, the Antarctic is growing in
ice.
The US Southeast and south is actually COOLER than before WWII (Roger
can confirm this)
The models for climate change, while greatly improved, are still
deficient and cannot accurately go out 100 years.
The hurricanes this season are within 1 standard deviation of the
average. Don't believe media hype.
C'mon people! Get real. THese are the facts.
RL
Here's the Global Warming Hurricane Rita Power Math.
It does not lie. It is incapable of lying.
The waters of the Gulf are about 30°C. The cloud tops of Rita
are about -70°C to -80°C. That is about 100 degrees difference
in a distance of about 12 kilometers. Each change of one degree
C to a CC of water, one gram of water, is one calorie. If we
knew how much water was being lifted by Rita we could figure out
how many calories of Global Warming heat energy is trapped by
greenhouse gases in those waters.
maximum. Choosing the lowest number 8" of rainwater over 15.5
hours will give us some number we can use.
The area of a circle is Pi x R^2, = 15393.8 square miles.
8" of water = 20.32 cm.
15393.8 square miles = 398,697,600,000,000 sq. cm
398,697,600,000,000 sq. cm x 20.32 cm =
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 cubic centimeters = calories.
That's how many calories it takes to raise those CCs by each
degree.
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 = 9.422085e+012 kilowatt-hours
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 = 9.422085e+009 megawatt-hours
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 = 3.214949e+016 BTUs
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 = 3.391951e+013 megajoules
8,101,535,232,000,000,000 = 1.263522e+013 horspower-hours
This is not even counting the energy required to go from liquid
phase to gasous phase without any raise in temperature (600 cal
per gram, per CC).
You can multiply those numbers by about 700 (kilowatt-hours,
megawatt-hours, BTUs, megajoules, horsepower-hours) to see how
much heat is being extracted from the ocean and turned into
death.
This is what Global Warming is ALL about. It takes storms of
this power, this often, to barely keep up with the heat going
into the system, trapped under greenhouse gases, during this
part of summer. This is the third storm of catagory 4 or higher
in 23 days on either side of Mexico. Katrina barely cooled the
waters at all dissipating all that heat to the frigid heights of
-80C, and Rita is unlikely to dent the 300 foot deep hot water
reservoir of the Loop Current which gave it its big push to 175
mph wind force.
Hurricanes have lots of power. So do tornadoes. So does lightning.
So what? It's been that way since the beginning of time.
And October is indeed a good month for hurricanes--been that way since
God knows when.
You and Roger should get together to publish a book: "trivial
statistics on weather that mean nothing".
Real issue is this: do these hurricanes make some voters in America
believe in the GW hypothesis? If so, will these ignorant voters want 'a
solution, any solution' akin to the 60 billion $ Federal bailout of New
Orleans (and climbing)? If so, we taxpayers are in big trouble.
RL
Psalm 110 wrote:
> raylopez99 wrote Sep 22, 10:02 pm
> > C'mon people! Get real. These are the facts.
>
> Here's the Global Warming Hurricane Rita Power Math.
> It does not lie. It is incapable of lying.
>
>
The little people, sheeple, got shutup cards worth $2000 while Vice
President Halliburton got his FEMA card for $500,000,000 already, with
more coming.
The LOOP current is hot going down 300 feet. Since it only usually goes
125 feet deep, that is 175 feet of Global Warming extra heat stored in
that pool. I know big numbers, like 175 make your head ache and cause
you to swoon, but it is through numbers we know if things are normal
(125 feet deep) or out of normal into the RED ZONE (300 feet deep).
Without the use of numbers even I might believe there is no global
warming, since there's no way to compare before and after.
Hurricanes have alway existed and always will. WE agree. We need say no
more about the parts we agree on.
The power is increasing. That can be measured with numbers. We need to
know how to use numbers to find figures which tell us what the power
increase represents.
One spot dead center in Rita's path thake 15.5 hours of beating from
the Hurricane core to pass over. That's just counting the 140 mile-wide
hurricane part, not the tropical storm halo around all that which goes
outwards in 340 miles of diameter. I'm not even counting that halo.
Then I dropped the highest numbers, and used the lowest numbers the
Hurricane Center provided: "only" 8 inches of rain instead of 15 inches
peak, or 25 inches in isolated spots. That way I am making Rita look a
lot weaker and smaller, but I don't want to exaggerate.
9 BILLION Megawatt-Hours is found by those numbers and simple rules of
math they teach all Americans by high school. You ought to be able to
follow that math if you stuck through high school. This number 9
BILLION MEGAWATT-HOURS has nothing to do with wind speed: it's just
based on rainfall alone, whether it is catagory one hurricane or
catagory 5, makes no difference to these numbers.
You have any idea how much POWER is in 9,000,000,000 Megawatt-Hours?
Probably not. MY electric bill for last month was for 225
Killowatt-Hours. It would take 40,000,000 months for me to use up that
many kilowatt hours. or 40,000,000 homes powered for a month.
But wait.
THat 9 BILLION megawatt-hours is not the POWER of RITA. That is the
power needed to change the temperature of that rain by one degree C. To
evaporate the water into rain takes 600 times that much power,
24,000,000,000 homes powered for one month, which is 4 homes for every
man, woman and child in the world.
But wait.
That is not the power of the storm. That is only the changing of hat
sea water into evaporated moisture. It takes 75 time that one degree
temperature change to go from 25C to 100C where the evaporation
happens, so you can add 40,000,000 times 75 to the total.
But wait.
That is only 15.5 hours of the storm's passage, which has been going on
now for over 100 hours, and still going for another 40 hours at least.
Rita will not draw any appreciable amount of heat out of that reservoir
pool going down 300 feet that is normally supposed to go down only 125
feet. THe TRAPPED heat will still be there in case another storm seed
passes over it to fuel it from 0 to 175 mph in 30 hours.
That is the difference between normal and Global Warming. Even one
extra storm can cost $300,000,000,000 as Wall Street figures Katrina
total will come out to when everything is figured.
$300,000,000,000 is $1000 for every man, woman and baby in the USA,
from just one storm. A family of four could have received a $4,000
check to buy solar panels and it would not have cost the people any
more or any less than taking $300,000,000,000 of wealth and turning it
into garbage the heat of the Empire State Building covering 28 NFL
football fields at its base.
ONE HAS TO QUESTION YOUR ECONOMIC WISDOM, where you advocate following
an ALREADY FAILED policy that turns wealth into trash?
Why on earth should anybody listen to your silly advice, since you
can't understand numbers with weather, you equally FAIL to understand
big numbers about wealth into trash.
In America we give people benefit of the doubt, up to a point. No we
are past that point. The people with your position are murderers and
turn wealth into trash. THat's who you are. The doubt is gone. We know
you as murderer and a wastral. Your agruments are trash and your
opinions are deadly enemies of America. You are a traitor to everybody
who wants America to be healthy and strong.
Secondly, "You have any idea how much POWER is in 9,000,000,000
Megawatt-Hours?
Probably not. MY electric bill for last month was for 225
Killowatt-Hours. It would take 40,000,000 months for me to use up that
many kilowatt hours. or 40,000,000 homes powered for a month. " means
that with 9 000 000 000 MW-hrs divided by (12*0.225 =MW-hrs per house
(person)) you get 3 333 333 333. Houses (or 3.3 billion people)
This figure is wrong.
According to Nationmaster
(http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/ene_ele_con_cap&int=-1) the per
capita consumption of electricity in the US is 12376 kWh per person or
12.4 MWh per person, which gives (9E9/12.4 = 725 806 451 or 725 million
people (or houses as you say).
Clearly this is too large a number. It seems your calculation is
flawed, like your brain.
RL
The Loopy Scientific method:
- do the math
- look at the number
- say "gee, I don't like the answer"
- conclude what ever it was you wanted to before you began.
Repeat for every issue all those mean people laugh at you over.
--
Coby Beck
(remove #\Space "coby 101 @ bigpond . com")
> You have any idea how much POWER is in 9,000,000,000 Megawatt-Hours?
> Probably not.
I admit, I don't. Mainly because a megawatt-hour is a unit of energy,
not a unit of power (1 MWh = 3600 MJ).
Electric motors are rated in WATTS. That's their POWER. Get an
education before you begin correcting me, or at least look stuff up.
You look dumber every time you post. Soon, JAMES, Lopez and Hanson are
going to look actually bright if they stand next to you.
Bush Grandpa sold Thyssen coal to burn jews in Auschwitz wrote:
> Apparantly you don't understand that a watt is a unit of POWER.
I do. I also understand the difference between a megawatt, and a
megawatt-hour.
Poor Bush Grandpa. I feel sorry for you, Raymond Arritt really
humiliated you.
Indeed, a watt-hour is a unit of energy. Multiply power times time and
you get energy.
RL
POWER is the measurement of the expendature of energy over time, doing
work.
http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=power
Physics. The rate at which work is done, expressed as the amount of
work per unit time and commonly measured in units such as the watt and
horsepower.
The amount of work done per unit time.
http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=energy
en·er·gy Audio pronunciation of "energy" ( P ) Pronunciation Key
(nr-j)
n. pl. en·er·gies
1. The capacity for work or vigorous activity; vigor; power. See
Synonyms at strength.
2. a. Exertion of vigor or power: a project requiring a great deal
of time and energy.
b. Vitality and intensity of expression: a speech delivered
with energy and emotion.
3. a. Usable heat or power: Each year Americans consume a high
percentage of the world's energy.
b. A source of usable power, such as petroleum or coal.
4. Physics. The capacity of a physical system to do work.
http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=Volt
Volt n. Abbr. V
The International System unit of electric potential and
electromotive force, equal to the difference of electric potential
between two points on a conducting wire carrying a constant current of
one ampere when the power dissipated between the points is one watt.
http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=Ampere
am·pere n. Abbr. A
1. A unit of electric current in the meter-kilogram-second system.
It is the steady current that when flowing in straight parallel wires
of infinite length and negligible cross section, separated by a
distance of one meter in free space, produces a force between the wires
of 2 × 10-7 newtons per meter of length.
2. A unit in the International System specified as one International
coulomb per second and equal to 0.999835 ampere.
http://tinyurl.com/a9lkq
Results 1 - 100 of about 738,000 for Ohm's Law
http://www.the12volt.com/ohm/ohmslaw.asp
Ohm's Law
Ohm's Law defines the relationships between (P) power, (E) voltage, (I)
current, and (R) resistance. One ohm is the resistance value through
which one volt will maintain a current of one ampere.
( P ) Power is the amount of current times the voltage level at a given
point measured in wattage or watts.
1. (2 points) If a watt is a unit of power, and power is work (energy)
per unit time, a megawatt-hour is a unit of __________.
It is still POWER.
POWER is fictional until actualized in SPACE and TIME. It exists in a
location, and it has a measurable duration. It has other measurable
qualities also, but these are prime relevence to the discussion.
Power can be expressed as an instantaneous quantity and a quantity over
time. It is still power when work is being done.
In the case of Hurricane Rita, rain was falling at a rate of 8" to 15"
total accumulation. The rain was falling at every instant of time. The
rate of rainfall was one storm moving over one point in geography. At
any instant of time there was just a thin sheen of water impacting the
surface. Over the duration of the diameter of the storm moving over the
point, a rain guage could collect 8" to 15" of water.
The WORK was getting the heavy water into the air in the first place.
That took POWER. The measurement of that work could not be measured
directly, but indirectly it could be computed how much energy needed to
boil a teapot so that the vapor when it condensed made a puddle 8" to
15" deep over 150 mile diameter storm coverage.
That WORK was computed as 9 BILLION Megawatts continuously applied for
one entire hour, or 9bn MW-hours. That is WORK, and that is how the big
boys measure work -- when you grow up you might get to measure things
too and make computations. For now you still haven't figured out why
you need the POWER of applied energy over time to a teakettle holding
125 GALLONS of water to boil away bone dry to equal the POWER of
applied energy over time to braking force needed to full-stop a bus
travelling at freeway speeds of 60 miles per hour.
--Trickier Dick's Obnoxico?
http://larouchepub.com/other/2005/3237energy_heist.html
The air currents travelling through lower California are easterly
wafting breezes from the remnants of Hurricane Kenneth, which spawned
in the LOOP CURRENT of the Gulf of Mexico, same as Katrina, same as
Rita. However, the brisk winds at the time between Katrina and Rita
whisked infant Kenneth across the country of Mexico, where it found
similar hot waters to grow to category force 4. It threatened Hawaii
briefly then expired, as the Pacific waters were much cooler than the
hot tubs of the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico. That is THREE extreme
force hurricanes in 23 days span of time, all sucking on the mother's
milk of hot southern waters.
The LOOP CURRENT has never been measured so hot so deep. It is 300 feet
deep now, normally 125 feet deep. That is 2.4 times the normal heat
content, enough to spawn two more force 5 hurricanes if they stumble
into the LOOP CURRENT and are not being shoved by fast winds so they
can soak up the power stored in that oceanic batttery.
Perhaps a better definition is:
"POWER is the time rate of utilization of ENERGY"
As in, gallons of gasoline consumed per hour.
Brake horsepower is the rate of dissipation of energy. A bus moving along at
a constant speed represents kinetic energy, which is converted to heat energy
when the brakes are applied. The same amount of energy is dissipated whether
the bus slows down quickly or slowly. It's the energy which is important.
--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------
BTW, check out Nationmaster statistics. You will find in the US
actually uses LESS electricity per person than Canada (which uses 15000
kWh per person).
Go here Grandpa:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/ene_ele_con_cap&int=-1
RL