SEPTEMBER HOTTEST IN 126 YEARS OF LAND RECORD!
Roger Coppock
Increasing fossil fool static on the alt.global-warming USENET
group drowns out useful discussion. Meanwhile, global mean
surface temperatures continue to rise.
These globally averaged temperature data come from NASA:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt
They represent the results of tens of millions of readings
taken at thousands of stations covering all the lands of the
Earth over the last 126 years. Yes, the data are corrected
for the urban heat island effect.
The Mean September temperature over the last 126 years is 14.014 C.
The Variance is 0.06628.
The Standard Deviation, or SIGMA, is 0.2574.
Rxy 0.682685 Rxy^2 0.466059
TEMP = 13.707451 + (0.004832 * (YEAR-1879))
Degrees of Freedom = 124 F = 108.235545
Confidence of nonzero correlation = approximately
0.99999999999999999 (17 nines)
The month of September in the year 2005,
is linearly projected to be 14.316,
yet it was 14.78. <-- 1.8 SIGMA above the linear
projection!
The sum of the residuals is 18.866087
Equal weight exponential least squares fit:
TEMP = 13.710634 * e^(.0003451 * (YEAR-1879))
The sum of the residuals is 18.833567
Rank of the months of September
Year Temp C Anomaly Z score
2005 14.78 0.766 2.97 <--
2003 14.71 0.696 2.70
2002 14.63 0.616 2.39
2001 14.60 0.586 2.28
2004 14.54 0.526 2.04
1991 14.51 0.496 1.93
1983 14.49 0.476 1.85
1998 14.47 0.456 1.77
1989 14.46 0.446 1.73
1988 14.44 0.426 1.65
1999 14.42 0.406 1.58
1994 14.41 0.396 1.54
2000 14.41 0.396 1.54
MEAN 14.014 0.000 0.00
1925 13.72 -0.294 -1.14
1883 13.71 -0.304 -1.18
1907 13.71 -0.304 -1.18
1935 13.68 -0.334 -1.30
1888 13.67 -0.344 -1.34
1964 13.61 -0.404 -1.57
1903 13.60 -0.414 -1.61
1892 13.59 -0.424 -1.65
1904 13.59 -0.424 -1.65
1902 13.58 -0.434 -1.69
1891 13.56 -0.454 -1.76
1912 13.56 -0.454 -1.76
1887 13.51 -0.504 -1.96
1894 13.47 -0.544 -2.11
The most recent 154 continuous months, or 12 years and 10 months,
on this GLB.Ts.txt data set are all above the 1951-1980
data set norm of 14 C.
There are 1509 months of data on this data set:
-- 719 of them are at or above the norm.
-- 790 of them are below the norm.
This run of 154 months above the norm is the result of a warming
world. It is too large to occur by chance at any reasonable level
of confidence. A major volcano eruption, thermonuclear war, or
meteor impact could stop this warming trend for a couple of years,
otherwise expect it to continue.