Hurricane Emma cuts swath across Europe
Earl Evleth
work. We have had a warm winter but that warm?
Hurricane Emma cuts swath across Europe
March 03, 2008
VIENNA: A winter storm with winds of more than 150km/h cut a swath of
destruction across Europe from Britain to the Czech Republic, killing at
least nine people.
In Europe, where the storm was named Hurricane Emma, airports were shut,
transport networks were snarled and power lines cut.
In The Netherlands, the storm delayed planes at Schiphol international
airport in Amsterdam. The dikes that keep the North Sea from flooding much
of the country were being watched because of high water levels, Radio
Netherlands reported.
In Germany, trains were delayed by uprooted trees and an intercity express
collided with a fallen tree between the cities of Cologne and Koblenz,
injuring the driver.
Nearly 130 flights to or from Frankfurt airport were either cancelled or
diverted, when the storm, packing winds of between 155km/h and 180km/h
lashed parts of central Europe.
The storms left a mounting death toll across the region.
Austrian media reported that four people had died as a result of the storm,
three of them foreigners on holiday.
In the Czech Republic, an 11-year-old girl was killed by a falling tree
north of Prague, and flying metal sheets struck and killed an 80-year-old
priest in a town east of the central European country's capital.
Europe began feeling the effects of Emma late on Friday night, local time,
according to Germany's national weather service. German authorities were
urging residents to stay indoors until the worst of the storm had passed.
ZBN00
"Earl Evleth" <evl...@wanadoo.fr> wrote in message
news:C3F1FE07.113A00%evl...@wanadoo.fr...
> Hurricanes in Europe, this is class A global warming at
> work. We have had a warm winter but that warm?
>
Hurricane Hysteria Revisited
Steven Milloy
January 31, 2008
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,327368,00.html
Will global warming increase hurricane activity? Two studies published
in the last week arrived at opposite conclusions.
A link between warmer sea surface temperatures and increased North
Atlantic hurricane activity "has been quantified for the first time,"
according to a study by University College London researchers that was
published in Nature (Jan. 30). They claim to have associated a 0.5
degree Celsius increase in sea surface warming with a 40 percent
increase in Atlantic hurricane activity during 1996-2005 as compared to
the average activity during 1950-2000.
"The scientists who have linked global warming to stronger storms said
the study makes sense, and is, if anything, just repeating and refining
what they have already said," the Associated Press reported (Jan. 30).
But the study result isn't surprising considering it was derived from a
computer model that included only two variables - sea surface
temperature and atmospheric wind field - which the researchers claim
explain about 75 percent of the variance in Atlantic hurricane activity
between 1965-2005. They claim to have teased out the association between
sea surface temperature and hurricane activity by statistically removing
the influence of wind from the model.
Sea surface temperatures and wind, however, aren't the only factors
affecting hurricane activity. The model omitted at least two other known
factors - atmospheric humidity and sea level pressure - and other more
mysterious factors such as the tendency of hurricane activity to occur
in cycles that are decades long.
Even though sea surface temperatures seem to have warmed, it's not at
all clear that Atlantic hurricane activity has truly increased. As
recently described in World Climate Report, the average hurricane
activity during 1995-2005 was greater than that during 1971-1994, but
the 1970s and 1980s witnessed unusually low hurricane activity. So the
increased hurricane activity of 1995-2005 "thus appears to represent a
recovery to normal hurricane activity, rather than a direct response to
increasing sea surface temperature," according to World Climate Report.
Finally, regardless of whether warmer sea surface temperatures are
associated with increased hurricane activity, the University College
London researchers admitted that, "Our analysis does not identify
whether greenhouse gas-induced warming contributed to the increase in
water temperature and thus to the increase in hurricane activity."
Since the entire global warming debate depends on whether manmade
greenhouse gas emissions drive climate change, without a link between
such emissions and sea surface temperature changes, the claimed sea
surface temperature-hurricane activity link is, at best, an academic
point.
The other hurricane study, published in Geophysical Research Letters
(Jan. 23) and not widely reported by the media, comes from climate
scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA).
The NOAA researchers compared sea surface temperatures with hurricanes
that made U.S. landfall - the most reliable hurricane measurement over
the long-term, according to the researchers. They found a slight
decrease in the trend of landfalling hurricanes with warmer sea surface
temperatures.
"This paper uses observational data to demonstrate that the attribution
of the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to global warming
is premature and that global warming may decrease the likelihood of
hurricanes making landfall in the United States," the researchers
concluded.
As leading hurricane forecaster William Gray of Colorado State
University put it, "Meteorologists who study tropical cyclones have no
valid physical theory as to why hurricane frequency or intensity would
necessarily be altered by small amounts (plus/minus 0.5 degrees
Centigrade) of global mean temperature change."
Dr. Gray continued, "In a global warming or global cooling world, the
atmosphere's upper air temperatures will warm or cool in unison with the
sea surface temperatures. Vertical-lapse rates [differences between the
atmospheric and sea temperatures that, when increased, tend to favor
storm formation] will not be significantly altered."
In observing that there were 80 major hurricanes during 1945-1969 when
the global temperature was cooling, but only 38 major hurricanes during
1970-1994 when global temperature was warming, Dr. Gray notes that
"Atlantic sea-surface temperatures do not necessarily follow global mean
temperature trends."
Even the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
acknowledged in its most recent assessment that although average
Northern Hemisphere temperatures in the last half of the 20 century were
very likely higher than at any other time during the last 500 years,
"There is no clear trend in the annual number of tropical cyclones
[hurricanes].
And, of course, Al Gore learned this lesson the hard way. His attempt in
"An Inconvenient Truth" to link manmade greenhouse gas emissions with
the Hurricane Katrina tragedy was soundly rejected by a British High
Court judge who succinctly ruled that, "In scene 12 Hurricane Katrina
and the consequent devastation in New Orleans is ascribed to global
warming. It is common ground that there is insufficient evidence to show
that."
As Sen. John McCain emerged from the Florida Republican primary as the
Republican front runner, Politico.com observed that "After hitting it in
most every appearance he made in New Hampshire and Michigan, John McCain
now rarely brings up the topic of global warming." In talking to
reporters after a campaign event in West Palm Beach, McCain said, "I try
to bring it up in areas that I think that it is of great import to
people."
Given the scientific evidence, it's quite easy to understand why
Floridians might not think that alleged global warming-hurricane link is
of great import.
Steven Milloy publishes JunkScience.com and DemandDebate.com. He is
ajunk science expert, andadvocate of free enterprise and an adjunct
scholar at the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
--
Warmest Regards
Bonzo
"In scientific circles, C02 is referred to as a `trace gas' that, for
hundreds of thousands of years, has remained at or below five
ten-thousandths of the atmosphere by volume. Even among the so-called
`greenhouse gases' (GHG), C02 accounts for less than 4%, with water
vapour being by far the most significant GHG. C02 is clearly a
miniscule component of the massive mechanisms that create climate and
cause climate change."
Dr. Timothy Ball, Chairman of the Natural Resources Stewardship Project
(NRSP.com), Former Professor Of Climatology, University of Winnipeg
Earl Evleth
<ZB...@doodoo.com.au> wrote:
> Steven Milloy
We know about him!
Roger Coppock
> Hurricanes in Europe, this is class A global warming at
> work. We have had a warm winter but that warm?
>
> Hurricane Emma cuts swath across Europe
If we're at Emma now, where are, or when were,
hurricanes with names starting with the letters
A, B, C, and D?
Earl Evleth
5ff261b1-3f72-443d...@s8g2000prg.googlegroups.com, "Roger
Coppock" <rcop...@adnc.com> wrote:
> If we're at Emma now, where are, or when were,
> hurricanes with names starting with the letters
> A, B, C, and D?
Maybe the name was just an European's joke. We
have had increase storm activity, heavier and larger
waves on the Atlantic coast of France for the last couple
of year, higher winds. Two freak storms occurred early in 1999, one
of which knocked down millions of trees in its path
through northern France. It was news notable since it
knocked out a number of 200+ year old historical
trees in the Versailles park. The pathway of the northern
storm was concentrated and reminded me more of the pathways
taken by tornadoes, which I have seen in the USA in person.
It is like somebody using a large lawn morrow, all the trees
being knocked down for a 200-300 meter wide pathway. That
real tornadoes hit also was claimed, we had one hit a couple
of blocks from where we live in Paris, knocking tons of stone
off the stop of one building a crushing the cars below on
the streets. Fortunately the storm hit Paris a 7 AM on a Sunday
and few deaths resulted.
Tornados were virtually unknown in France but they have increase
in frequency over the last 10 years from about one a year to several.
If this is all due to global warming nobody knows, but warmer
weather has its bright sides. This winter has been warm and I have
avoided my bout with bronchitis this year and last.
Harold Brooks
@s8g2000prg.googlegroups.com>, rcop...@adnc.com says...
> On Mar 3, 10:12 am, Earl Evleth <evl...@wanadoo.fr> wrote:
> > Hurricanes in Europe, this is class A global warming at
> > work. We have had a warm winter but that warm?
> >
> > Hurricane Emma cuts swath across Europe
>
>
> If we're at Emma now, where are, or when were,
> hurricanes with names starting with the letters
> A, B, C, and D?
It wasn't a hurricane. It was a strong extratropical cyclone. The
Europeans have named their major winter storms for a number of years
(e.g., Lothar and Martin around Christmas in 1999 that did considerable
damage through France and Germany.)
Harold
--
Harold Brooks
hebro...@hotmail.com
Harold Brooks
says...
It's untrue that tornadoes were virtually unknown in France. There's no
formal report collection system. Jean Dessens and Francois Paul's
database, collected mostly from newspaper reports, had about 2 1/2 per
year from 1960-1999 and, comparing the intensity distribution to the
pre-1950 US data, it was estimated that, if a US-style recording system
existed, about 20 per year would be reported. (Brooks, H. E., and C. A.
Doswell III, 2001: Some aspects of the international climatology of
tornadoes by damage classification. Atmos. Res., 56, 191-201.)
>
> If this is all due to global warming nobody knows, but warmer
> weather has its bright sides. This winter has been warm and I have
> avoided my bout with bronchitis this year and last.
>
>
>
--
Harold Brooks
hebro...@hotmail.com
Earl Evleth
"Harold Brooks" <hebro...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> It wasn't a hurricane. It was a strong extratropical cyclone.
The term hurricane is one use for cyclones by the Americans.
A hurricane in the western Pacific is a typhoon and in the
Indian ocean it is a "cyclone", I believe.
Earl Evleth
"Harold Brooks" <hebro...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> It's untrue that tornadoes were virtually unknown in France. There's no
> formal report collection system. Jean Dessens and Francois Paul's
> database, collected mostly from newspaper reports, had about 2 1/2 per
> year from 1960-1999 and, comparing the intensity distribution to the
> pre-1950 US data, it was estimated that, if a US-style recording system
> existed, about 20 per year would be reported. (Brooks, H. E., and C. A.
> Doswell III, 2001: Some aspects of the international climatology of
> tornadoes by damage classification. Atmos. Res., 56, 191-201.)
I would say then that they have not particularly been noted by the
French news media. As an American from the mid-west, where the
anxiety over the possibility of a tornado is part of the culture,
fear of them is not particularly in French culture.
Harold Brooks
says...
Tropical cyclones have warm cores. Extratropical cyclones have cold
cores. The dynamics are very different. Translating the German "Orkan
Emma" into English as "Hurricane Emma" in this context is misleading.
The system was not tropical, which is certainly the standard meaning of
hurricane in English.
--
Harold Brooks
hebro...@hotmail.com
Earl Evleth
"Harold Brooks" <hebro...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Tropical cyclones have warm cores. Extratropical cyclones have cold
> cores. The dynamics are very different.
interesting, I did not realized this. What are the dynamics?
They are not energy driven in the same manner. We have had a
large temperature difference between France and central
Europe, does this create the conditions for powering the
storm
*****
The word in French is ouragan. Usually the French use
the word "tempête" (tempest) since the word ouragan is largely
reserved for storms in the Caribbean. The winds were not steady which is
why they used the term "rafale" (gusts)
Ouragan Emma : Il est toujours là, déjà des morts en Europe
samedi 1er mars 2008,
Les vents attendus et déjà présents sur l¹Europe sont entre 150 et 200
kilomètres à l¹heure selon les pays. Déjà quatre personnes sont mortes. Le
Week-End s¹annonce très difficile notamment au centre de l¹Europe en
Allemagne, en Pologne, en républiques Tchèques et SlovaquesŠ
La tempête Emma dévaste l¹Europe, une semaine après la tempête Zizi qui
s¹était déjà abattue sur le centre de notre continent.
Emma a déjà fait quatre morts en Europe, deux en Autriche et deux en
République tchèque. En Alsace, sur le sol français, un supermarché a dû être
évacué à Pfastatt.
Les rafales de vent pourront atteindre 200 km/h, dernièrement certaines d¹
entre elles furent enregistrées à 180-190 km/h selon les régions en Europe.
Emma a balayé dans la nuit de vendredi à samedi et samedi matin le nord de
l¹Europe, les dégâts sont énormes, et ce n¹est pas fini, l¹alerte est
maintenue en Pologne où l¹on prévoit des ravages encore plus considérables
dans les heures à venir.
Les drames se sont succédés, ainsi la mort d¹une enfant de onze ans en
République tchèque, écrasée par la chute d¹un arbre et décédée à Libeznice,
dans la banlieue nord de Prague, plus tard un homme de 80 ans a été tué par
un morceau de métal tombé d¹un toit à Nymburk - ville située à environ 40 km
de Prague. Les vents ont atteint une vitesse de 140 km/h dans cette partie
du pays. Toujours dans la capitale Tchèque, les pompiers ont procédé à
l¹évacuation de tout un immeuble, ce qui correspond à une quarantaine de
personnes. Leur immeuble a subi l¹arrachage par les vents de son toit.
Enfin, 100.000 personnes étaient sans électricité dans la région occidentale
de Karlovarsky et les liaisons ferroviaires étaient perturbées dans tout le
pays.
Dans les mêmes coins de l¹Europe, l¹Autriche a également subi les terreurs
de la tempête Emma, ce sont deux victimes que recensent les secours, dans un
bilan provisoire. Avec des vents soufflants à 190 km/h le pays a été très
vulnérable. Des chutes d¹arbres ont tué deux personnes, et des blessés
affluent dans les centres de soins. Par ailleurs ce sont 10.000 foyers
autrichiens qui étaient sans électricité dans le nord du pays. Par ailleurs
les lignes électriques ont été arrachées. Des routes et des tronçons
d¹autoroutes ont dû être fermés à la circulation. A Vienne la chute d¹une
grue dans la gare de Suedbahnhof a perturbé le trafic ferroviaire.
En suisse les vols sont fortement perturbés.
En France, l¹Alsace a aussi souffert d¹Emma, 450 sorties ont été signalées
par les pompiers. Un SUPER U a été évacué alors que son toit partait sous
les coups des rafales de vent. Météo France prévoyait ce samedi des rafales
de 55 à 75 km/h sur les deux départements alsaciens.
En région Parisienne, et ailleurs en France, les rafales, moins fortes
étaient toutefois impressionnantes notamment cette nuit.
En Pologne, on prévoit toute la journée d¹aujourd¹hui mais également de
dimanche balayée par des vents à 100km/h. Les météorologues polonais
annoncent déjà que des arbres seront arrachés, des voitures
renversées/retournées, ils prévoient de la grêle et des toits arrachés.
L¹Ouragan de l¹atlantique Emma doit passer en plein centre de l¹Europe,
c¹est-à-dire par la Pologne.
Les rafales qui souffleront vers l¹est du polygone polonais, s¹estomperont
en fin de soirée dimanche.
Les pays du centre et de l¹ouest de l¹Europe sont tous concernés par cette
tempête, les bourrasques peuvent être très immédiates, provoquant des
changements climatiques en quelques secondes.
Les balcons doivent être débarrassés de tout objet dangereux, pouvant être
emporté et pire, tuer un passant. Il faut également éviter de parquer les
véhicules sous les arbres. Dans certaines régions il est bon d¹avoir des
sources de lumières alternatives, telles que bougies. Durant les rafales de
vent il est déconseillé de rouler en véhicule, de sortir à l¹extérieur, de
se trouver sous des panneaux publicitaires ou des lignes à haute tension.
Les Pays-Bas et l¹Allemagne ont été touchés par les vents violents et les
pluies de la tempête Emma, ce qui a entraîné des perturbations sur le réseau
ferroviaire et fait plusieurs blessés légers. Au Pays Bas, comme en Pologne,
la montée de la mer risque de faire subir à quelques villages et villes des
inondations.
Le trafic aérien de l¹aéroport international d¹Amsterdam-Schiphol était
fortement perturbé.
En Belgique, les pompiers sont intervenus dans la nuit des centaines de
foisŠ
Harold Brooks
says...
> On 4/03/08 16:31, in article MPG.2237275b...@News.Individual.NET,
> "Harold Brooks" <hebro...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Tropical cyclones have warm cores. Extratropical cyclones have cold
> > cores. The dynamics are very different.
>
> interesting, I did not realized this. What are the dynamics?
> They are not energy driven in the same manner. We have had a
> large temperature difference between France and central
> Europe, does this create the conditions for powering the
> storm
Yes. Extratropical cyclones grow from baroclinic instability (the
temperature contrast in the horizontal); tropical cyclones get their
energy from the air-sea energy difference. Wikipedia is your friend
here. Look up extratropical cyclones and tropical cyclones.
>
> *****
>
> The word in French is ouragan. Usually the French use
> the word "tempête" (tempest) since the word ouragan is largely
> reserved for storms in the Caribbean. The winds were not steady which is
> why they used the term "rafale" (gusts)
Deutsche Wetterdienst is who names the low pressure systems (see
http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/anabwkna.gif). It looks like
they call it an Orkan if it produces hurricane-force winds.
--
Harold Brooks
hebro...@hotmail.com
V-for-Vendicar
"ZBN00" <ZB...@doodoo.com.au> wrote
> A link between warmer sea surface temperatures and increased North
> Atlantic hurricane activity "has been quantified for the first time,"
> according to a study by University College London researchers that was
> published in Nature (Jan. 30). They claim to have associated a 0.5
> degree Celsius increase in sea surface warming with a 40 percent
> increase in Atlantic hurricane activity during 1996-2005 as compared to
> the average activity during 1950-2000.
>
> "The scientists who have linked global warming to stronger storms said
> the study makes sense, and is, if anything, just repeating and refining
> what they have already said," the Associated Press reported (Jan. 30).
Yup.