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Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury Is Still Out
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Desertphile
May 21, 2013, 9:40:21 PM5/21/13
to
Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
Is Still Out
http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
change.
There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
schools and hospitals.
But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
change?
Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
The IPCC�s special report on managing extreme risks states: �There is
low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
inadequacies in monitoring systems.�
In laymen�s terms: We don�t have enough data to measure, since the
United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
Doppler radar wasn�t used for weather until the 1970s.
On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
disruption.
�As far as climate change is concerned, there will likely be a greater
clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
humid air masses coming off the Gulf of Mexico�conditions that are
favorable for breeding destructive storms,� says Michael Mann, climate
scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
Stick and the Climate Wars.
�The wildcard is the sheer�we don�t know with certainty whether that
will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
result of climate change,� Mann continues. �But if one factor is
likely to be favorable, and the other is a wildcard, it�s still more
likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
you�re a betting person�or the insurance or reinsurance industry for
that matter�you�d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency
and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
change.�
Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research, does the math: �The climate
change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
super-cell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.�
By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
afternoon).
The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
--
"God wanted me to be in bed with the maid."
Is Still Out
http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
change.
There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
schools and hospitals.
But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
change?
Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
The IPCC�s special report on managing extreme risks states: �There is
low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
inadequacies in monitoring systems.�
In laymen�s terms: We don�t have enough data to measure, since the
United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
Doppler radar wasn�t used for weather until the 1970s.
On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
disruption.
�As far as climate change is concerned, there will likely be a greater
clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
humid air masses coming off the Gulf of Mexico�conditions that are
favorable for breeding destructive storms,� says Michael Mann, climate
scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
Stick and the Climate Wars.
�The wildcard is the sheer�we don�t know with certainty whether that
will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
result of climate change,� Mann continues. �But if one factor is
likely to be favorable, and the other is a wildcard, it�s still more
likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
you�re a betting person�or the insurance or reinsurance industry for
that matter�you�d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency
and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
change.�
Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research, does the math: �The climate
change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
super-cell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.�
By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
afternoon).
The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
--
"God wanted me to be in bed with the maid."
prawnster
May 21, 2013, 11:20:06 PM5/21/13
to
On May 21, 6:40 pm, AGWFool <AGWFoo...@badweather.idiot> wrote:
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> Is Still Out
>
> http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact...
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> Is Still Out
>
> [...bilge...]
Science isn't up for a vote, pinbun. Thanks for playing, though!
"When one scientist accepts an unproven assertion, it is called a
hypothesis. When many scientists accept an unproven assertion, it is
called a consensus." ~ The Law of Prawn
James
May 21, 2013, 11:47:08 PM5/21/13
to
"Desertphile" <Deser...@spammegmail.com> wrote in message
news:id8op89ongohmjms6...@4ax.com
news:id8op89ongohmjms6...@4ax.com
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> Is Still Out
>
Relax. There is no global warming of any consequence.
> Is Still Out
>
Chom Noamsky
May 22, 2013, 12:21:31 AM5/22/13
to
On 5/21/2013 6:40 PM, Desertphile wrote:
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> Is Still Out
>
> http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
>
> Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
> the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
> change.
>
> There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
> leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
> suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
> unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
> children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
> schools and hospitals.
>
> But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
> change?
>
> Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
>
> While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
> (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
> climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
> between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
>
> The IPCC�s special report on managing extreme risks states: �There is
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> Is Still Out
>
> http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
>
> Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
> the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
> change.
>
> There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
> leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
> suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
> unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
> children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
> schools and hospitals.
>
> But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
> change?
>
> Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
>
> While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
> (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
> climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
> between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
>
> low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
> such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
> inadequacies in monitoring systems.�
> such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
>
> In laymen�s terms: We don�t have enough data to measure, since the
> United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
> Doppler radar wasn�t used for weather until the 1970s.
>
> On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
> warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
> and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
> disruption.
>
> �As far as climate change is concerned, there will likely be a greater
> On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
> warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
> and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
> disruption.
>
> clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
> humid air masses coming off the Gulf of Mexico�conditions that are
> favorable for breeding destructive storms,� says Michael Mann, climate
> scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
> Stick and the Climate Wars.
>
> �The wildcard is the sheer�we don�t know with certainty whether that
> Stick and the Climate Wars.
>
> will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
> result of climate change,� Mann continues. �But if one factor is
> likely to be favorable, and the other is a wildcard, it�s still more
> likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
> you�re a betting person�or the insurance or reinsurance industry for
> that matter�you�d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency
> and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
> change.�
>
> Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
> National Center for Atmospheric Research, does the math: �The climate
> Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
> change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
> the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
> a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
> 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
> events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
> buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
> super-cell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.�
> the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
> a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
> 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
> events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
> buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
>
> By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
> common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
> stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
> tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
> afternoon).
>
> The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
> climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
How many tornadoes have you heard of in the equatorial region, where
> By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
> common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
> stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
> tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
> afternoon).
>
> The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
> climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
there is plenty of heat, humidity and frequent thunderstorms?
emoneyjoe
May 22, 2013, 12:25:44 AM5/22/13
to
of the desert. Maybe somebody will begin
to irrigate the desert and introduce some
soil retaining vegetation.
Chom Noamsky
May 22, 2013, 12:30:01 AM5/22/13
to
gordo
May 22, 2013, 12:54:26 AM5/22/13
to
climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
"Climate Dice are Loaded, says Hansen"
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/climate-dice-are-loaded-says-h/3424508
Dawlish
May 22, 2013, 2:32:49 AM5/22/13
to
matt_sykes
May 22, 2013, 6:34:43 AM5/22/13
to
On 22 May, 03:40, Desertphile <Desertph...@spammegmail.com> wrote:
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes?
Isnt all climate change due to Humans? I mean this is your stance
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes?
isnt it, you and all the other advocates here, that the science is
settled and that humans have very likely been responsible for the last
100 years of climate change?
>The Scientific Jury
> Is Still Out
be scientific concensus on this? I mean, is that what you are
telling us, or are you now saying there is no concensus, and in fact
little science at all on the impact of CC?
Monckton is the, 3rd Viscount of Brenchley
May 22, 2013, 6:37:11 AM5/22/13
to
On Tuesday, May 21, 2013 9:40:21 PM UTC-4, Desertphile wrote:
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
>
> Is Still Out
>
>
>
> http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
>
>
>
> Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
>
> the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
>
> change.
>
>
>
> There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
>
> leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
>
> suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
>
> unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
>
> children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
>
> schools and hospitals.
>
>
>
> But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
>
> change?
>
>
>
> Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
>
>
>
> While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
>
> (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
>
> climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
>
> between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
>
>
>
> The IPCC�s special report on managing extreme risks states: �There is
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
>
> Is Still Out
>
>
>
> http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
>
>
>
> Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
>
> the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
>
> change.
>
>
>
> There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
>
> leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
>
> suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
>
> unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
>
> children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
>
> schools and hospitals.
>
>
>
> But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
>
> change?
>
>
>
> Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
>
>
>
> While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
>
> (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
>
> climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
>
> between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
>
>
>
>
> low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
>
> such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
>
> inadequacies in monitoring systems.�
> low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
>
> such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
>
>
>
>
> In laymen�s terms: We don�t have enough data to measure, since the
>
> United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
>
> Doppler radar wasn�t used for weather until the 1970s.
> United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
>
>
>
>
> On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
>
> warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
>
> and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
>
> disruption.
>
>
>
> �As far as climate change is concerned, there will likely be a greater
>
>
> On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
>
> warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
>
> and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
>
> disruption.
>
>
>
>
> clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
>
> humid air masses coming off the Gulf of Mexico�conditions that are
> clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
>
>
> favorable for breeding destructive storms,� says Michael Mann, climate
>
> scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
>
> Stick and the Climate Wars.
>
>
>
> �The wildcard is the sheer�we don�t know with certainty whether that
> scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
>
> Stick and the Climate Wars.
>
>
>
>
> will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
>
> result of climate change,� Mann continues. �But if one factor is
> will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
>
>
> likely to be favorable, and the other is a wildcard, it�s still more
>
> likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
>
> you�re a betting person�or the insurance or reinsurance industry for
> likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
>
>
> that matter�you�d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency
>
> and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
>
> change.�
> and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
>
>
>
>
> Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
>
> National Center for Atmospheric Research, does the math: �The climate
>
>
> Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
>
>
> change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
>
> the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
>
> a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
>
> 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
>
> events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
>
> buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
>
> super-cell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.�
> change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
>
> the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
>
> a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
>
> 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
>
> events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
>
> buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
>
>
>
>
> By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
>
> common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
>
> stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
>
> tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
>
> afternoon).
>
>
>
> The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
>
> climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
>
>
>
> --
>
> "God wanted me to be in bed with the maid."
There is no scientific jury, grow up, and remember if you have nothing of value to say, go fishing.
>
>
> By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
>
> common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
>
> stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
>
> tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
>
> afternoon).
>
>
>
> The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
>
> climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
>
>
>
> --
>
> "God wanted me to be in bed with the maid."
RedAcer
May 22, 2013, 6:41:56 AM5/22/13
to
On 22/05/13 11:37, Monckton is the, 3rd Viscount of Brenchley wrote:
> On Tuesday, May 21, 2013 9:40:21 PM UTC-4, Desertphile wrote:
>> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
>>
>> Is Still Out
>>
>>
>>
>> http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
>>
>>
>>
>> Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
>>
>> the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
>>
>> change.
>>
>>
>>
>> There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
>>
>> leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
>>
>> suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
>>
>> unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
>>
>> children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
>>
>> schools and hospitals.
>>
>>
>>
>> But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
>>
>> change?
>>
>>
>>
>> Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
>>
>>
>>
>> While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
>>
>> (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
>>
>> climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
>>
>> between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
>>
>>
>>
>> The IPCC�s special report on managing extreme risks states: �There is
> On Tuesday, May 21, 2013 9:40:21 PM UTC-4, Desertphile wrote:
>> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
>>
>> Is Still Out
>>
>>
>>
>> http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
>>
>>
>>
>> Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
>>
>> the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
>>
>> change.
>>
>>
>>
>> There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
>>
>> leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
>>
>> suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
>>
>> unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
>>
>> children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
>>
>> schools and hospitals.
>>
>>
>>
>> But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
>>
>> change?
>>
>>
>>
>> Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
>>
>>
>>
>> While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
>>
>> (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
>>
>> climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
>>
>> between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
>>
>> such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
>>
>> inadequacies in monitoring systems.�
>> low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
>>
>> such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> In laymen�s terms: We don�t have enough data to measure, since the
>>
>> United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
>>
>> Doppler radar wasn�t used for weather until the 1970s.
>> United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
>>
>> warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
>>
>> and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
>>
>> disruption.
>>
>>
>>
>> �As far as climate change is concerned, there will likely be a greater
>>
>>
>> On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
>>
>> warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
>>
>> and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
>>
>> disruption.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
>>
>> humid air masses coming off the Gulf of Mexico�conditions that are
>> clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
>>
>>
>> favorable for breeding destructive storms,� says Michael Mann, climate
>>
>> scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
>>
>> Stick and the Climate Wars.
>>
>>
>>
>> �The wildcard is the sheer�we don�t know with certainty whether that
>> scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
>>
>> Stick and the Climate Wars.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
>>
>> result of climate change,� Mann continues. �But if one factor is
>> will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
>>
>>
>> likely to be favorable, and the other is a wildcard, it�s still more
>>
>> likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
>>
>> you�re a betting person�or the insurance or reinsurance industry for
>> likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
>>
>>
>> that matter�you�d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency
>>
>> and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
>>
>> change.�
>> and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
>>
>> National Center for Atmospheric Research, does the math: �The climate
>>
>>
>> Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
>>
>>
>> change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
>>
>> the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
>>
>> a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
>>
>> 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
>>
>> events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
>>
>> buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
>>
>> super-cell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.�
>> change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
>>
>> the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
>>
>> a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
>>
>> 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
>>
>> events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
>>
>> buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
>>
>> common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
>>
>> stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
>>
>> tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
>>
>> afternoon).
>>
>>
>>
>> The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
>>
>> climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> "God wanted me to be in bed with the maid."
>
> There is no scientific jury, grow up,
?
>>
>>
>> By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
>>
>> common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
>>
>> stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
>>
>> tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
>>
>> afternoon).
>>
>>
>>
>> The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
>>
>> climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> "God wanted me to be in bed with the maid."
>
> There is no scientific jury, grow up,
"The jury is out" is a turn of phrase. You are not meant to take it
literally.
Monckton is the, 3rd Viscount of Brenchley
May 22, 2013, 7:03:29 AM5/22/13
to
On Wednesday, May 22, 2013 6:41:56 AM UTC-4, RedAcer wrote:
> On 22/05/13 11:37, Monckton is the, 3rd Viscount of Brenchley wrote:
>
> > On Tuesday, May 21, 2013 9:40:21 PM UTC-4, Desertphile wrote:
>
> >> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
>
> >>
>
> >> Is Still Out
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
>
> >>
>
> >> the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
>
> >>
>
> >> change.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
>
> >>
>
> >> leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
>
> >>
>
> >> suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
>
> >>
>
> >> unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
>
> >>
>
> >> children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
>
> >>
>
> >> schools and hospitals.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
>
> >>
>
> >> change?
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
>
> >>
>
> >> (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
>
> >>
>
> >> climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
>
> >>
>
> >> between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> The IPCC�s special report on managing extreme risks states: �There is
> On 22/05/13 11:37, Monckton is the, 3rd Viscount of Brenchley wrote:
>
> > On Tuesday, May 21, 2013 9:40:21 PM UTC-4, Desertphile wrote:
>
> >> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
>
> >>
>
> >> Is Still Out
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
>
> >>
>
> >> the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
>
> >>
>
> >> change.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
>
> >>
>
> >> leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
>
> >>
>
> >> suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
>
> >>
>
> >> unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
>
> >>
>
> >> children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
>
> >>
>
> >> schools and hospitals.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
>
> >>
>
> >> change?
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
>
> >>
>
> >> (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
>
> >>
>
> >> climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
>
> >>
>
> >> between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >> low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
>
> >>
>
> >> such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
>
> >>
>
> >> inadequacies in monitoring systems.�
> >>
>
> >> low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
>
> >>
>
> >> such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> In laymen�s terms: We don�t have enough data to measure, since the
>
> >>
>
> >> United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
>
> >>
>
> >> Doppler radar wasn�t used for weather until the 1970s.
> >>
>
> >> United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
>
> >>
>
> >> warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
>
> >>
>
> >> and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
>
> >>
>
> >> disruption.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> �As far as climate change is concerned, there will likely be a greater
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
>
> >>
>
> >> warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
>
> >>
>
> >> and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
>
> >>
>
> >> disruption.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >> clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
>
> >>
>
> >> humid air masses coming off the Gulf of Mexico�conditions that are
> >>
>
> >> clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >> favorable for breeding destructive storms,� says Michael Mann, climate
>
> >>
>
> >> scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
>
> >>
>
> >> Stick and the Climate Wars.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> �The wildcard is the sheer�we don�t know with certainty whether that
> >>
>
> >> scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
>
> >>
>
> >> Stick and the Climate Wars.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >> will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
>
> >>
>
> >> result of climate change,� Mann continues. �But if one factor is
> >>
>
> >> will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >> likely to be favorable, and the other is a wildcard, it�s still more
>
> >>
>
> >> likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
>
> >>
>
> >> you�re a betting person�or the insurance or reinsurance industry for
> >>
>
> >> likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >> that matter�you�d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency
>
> >>
>
> >> and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
>
> >>
>
> >> change.�
> >>
>
> >> and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
>
> >>
>
> >> National Center for Atmospheric Research, does the math: �The climate
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >> change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
>
> >>
>
> >> the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
>
> >>
>
> >> a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
>
> >>
>
> >> 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
>
> >>
>
> >> events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
>
> >>
>
> >> buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
>
> >>
>
> >> super-cell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.�
> >>
>
> >> change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
>
> >>
>
> >> the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
>
> >>
>
> >> a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
>
> >>
>
> >> 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
>
> >>
>
> >> events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
>
> >>
>
> >> buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
>
> >>
>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
>
> >>
>
> >> common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
>
> >>
>
> >> stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
>
> >>
>
> >> tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
>
> >>
>
> >> afternoon).
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
>
> >>
>
> >> climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> --
>
> >>
>
> >> "God wanted me to be in bed with the maid."
>
> >
>
> > There is no scientific jury, grow up,
>
> ?
>
> "The jury is out" is a turn of phrase. You are not meant to take it
>
> literally.
>
>
>
> >and remember if you have nothing of value to say, go fishing.
>
> >
Then it is true that the jury is still out on the existence of aliens at area 51, bigfoots in Oregon and the Loch Ness monster. Thus you seem to be correct, we should not be taking tornadoes, that have been happening for 4.5 billion years as evidence of climate change.
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
>
> >>
>
> >> common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
>
> >>
>
> >> stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
>
> >>
>
> >> tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
>
> >>
>
> >> afternoon).
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
>
> >>
>
> >> climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> --
>
> >>
>
> >> "God wanted me to be in bed with the maid."
>
> >
>
> > There is no scientific jury, grow up,
>
> ?
>
> "The jury is out" is a turn of phrase. You are not meant to take it
>
> literally.
>
>
>
> >and remember if you have nothing of value to say, go fishing.
>
> >
Thanks for clearing that up....
PS Does that make people who had everything destroyed in 1999 tornadoes, and rebuilt, then lost everything again in 2013 tornadoes intelligent if they rebuild in the same location? It's not a pleasant question, but one that needs to be ask....
Dean Dark
May 22, 2013, 7:05:43 AM5/22/13
to
On Wed, 22 May 2013 03:37:11 -0700 (PDT), James F. "Closet Gay and
Self-Confessed Asshole Tasting Expert, Individual Serving Size
Corningware Expert, World Class Bullshit Artist, Derelict Father,
Cuckold and Paranoid" Howarth, of 10 W Susan St, Hazlet, NJ 07730,
telephone (732) 264-7879, posting variously as
<fisherm...@comcast.net>, <kashmir...@gmail.com> , etc., sat
in the corner of his dirty, dark bedroom in his Dad’s tiny, smelly
1,200 sq. ft. home, whimpering and licking his wounds, wishing hard
that he'd stayed in school and paid more attention, but he tugged on
his diseased little pee-pee anyway, and this dribbled out:
>and remember if you have nothing of value to say, go fishing.
But that you would take your own advice, Jim.
We would never hear another squeak from you.
Self-Confessed Asshole Tasting Expert, Individual Serving Size
Corningware Expert, World Class Bullshit Artist, Derelict Father,
Cuckold and Paranoid" Howarth, of 10 W Susan St, Hazlet, NJ 07730,
telephone (732) 264-7879, posting variously as
<fisherm...@comcast.net>, <kashmir...@gmail.com> , etc., sat
in the corner of his dirty, dark bedroom in his Dad’s tiny, smelly
1,200 sq. ft. home, whimpering and licking his wounds, wishing hard
that he'd stayed in school and paid more attention, but he tugged on
his diseased little pee-pee anyway, and this dribbled out:
>and remember if you have nothing of value to say, go fishing.
We would never hear another squeak from you.
Dawlish
May 22, 2013, 9:31:46 AM5/22/13
to
Tunderbar
May 22, 2013, 11:47:54 AM5/22/13
to
On May 21, 8:40 pm, Desertphile <Desertph...@spammegmail.com> wrote:
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> Is Still Out
>
> http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact...
> Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> Is Still Out
>
erschro...@gmail.com
May 22, 2013, 5:07:30 PM5/22/13
to
On May 22, 12:21 am, Chom Noamsky <wea...@stew.yum> wrote:
> On 5/21/2013 6:40 PM, Desertphile wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> > Is Still Out
>
> >http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact...
> On 5/21/2013 6:40 PM, Desertphile wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> > Is Still Out
>
>
> > Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
> > the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
> > change.
>
> > There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
> > leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
> > suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
> > unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
> > children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
> > schools and hospitals.
>
> > But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
> > change?
>
> > Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
>
> > While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
> > (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
> > climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
> > between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
>
> > The IPCC s special report on managing extreme risks states: There is
> > Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
> > the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
> > change.
>
> > There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
> > leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
> > suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
> > unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
> > children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
> > schools and hospitals.
>
> > But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
> > change?
>
> > Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
>
> > While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
> > (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
> > climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
> > between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
>
> > low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
> > such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
> > inadequacies in monitoring systems.
> > such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
>
> > In laymen s terms: We don t have enough data to measure, since the
> > United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
> > Doppler radar wasn t used for weather until the 1970s.
>
> > On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
> > warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
> > and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
> > disruption.
>
> > On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
> > warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
> > and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
> > disruption.
>
> > As far as climate change is concerned, there will likely be a greater
> > clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
> > humid air masses coming off the Gulf of Mexico conditions that are
> > clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
> > favorable for breeding destructive storms, says Michael Mann, climate
> > scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
> > Stick and the Climate Wars.
>
> > The wildcard is the sheer we don t know with certainty whether that
> > Stick and the Climate Wars.
>
> > will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
> > result of climate change, Mann continues. But if one factor is
> > likely to be favorable, and the other is a wildcard, it s still more
> > likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
> > you re a betting person or the insurance or reinsurance industry for
> > that matter you d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency
> > and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
> > change.
>
> > change.
>
> > Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
> > National Center for Atmospheric Research, does the math: The climate
> > change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
> > the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
> > a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
> > 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
> > events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
> > buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
> > super-cell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.
>
> > the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
> > a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
> > 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
> > events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
> > buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
> > super-cell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.
>
> > By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
> > common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
> > stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
> > tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
> > afternoon).
>
> > The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
> > climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
>
> How many tornadoes have you heard of in the equatorial region, where
> there is plenty of heat, humidity and frequent thunderstorms?
That's not what triggers one. It's a clash of cold air and hot humid
> > common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
> > stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
> > tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
> > afternoon).
>
> > The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
> > climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
>
> How many tornadoes have you heard of in the equatorial region, where
> there is plenty of heat, humidity and frequent thunderstorms?
air. You also don't see many west of the Rockies. It's the cold
arctic air meeting the warm humid air from the Gulf of Mexico.
erschro...@gmail.com
May 22, 2013, 5:08:05 PM5/22/13
to
CO2 from fossil fuels. Everything else is still being investigated.
Chom Noamsky
May 22, 2013, 7:04:01 PM5/22/13
to
American Meteorological Society conduced a survey and found that 59% of
the membership agreed on AGW - all professional scientists. There is no
consensus, stop this nonsense.
gordo
May 22, 2013, 8:54:08 PM5/22/13
to
On Wed, 22 May 2013 16:04:01 -0700, Chom Noamsky <wea...@stew.yum>
wrote:
Are we back there again? Man.Your local weatherman is a member of the
AMS and is not a professional scientist. He is certified as a
weatherman.He gets there by passing the test of the AMS.Most of the
weathermen are not scientists,but belong to the AMS.Did you think that
the weathermen on foxnews are scientists?
wrote:
AMS and is not a professional scientist. He is certified as a
weatherman.He gets there by passing the test of the AMS.Most of the
weathermen are not scientists,but belong to the AMS.Did you think that
the weathermen on foxnews are scientists?
Eric�
May 22, 2013, 10:19:14 PM5/22/13
to
gordo wrote...
*sigh* Here he goes again...
Chom Noamsky
May 22, 2013, 11:08:16 PM5/22/13
to
also an associate membership class. The associate memberships are for
those who lack relevant credentials and associate members weren't part
of the survey. The regular membership are credentialed scientists in a
relevant field, most of them with PhDs. I guess the buffoon also
doesn't know that the World Meteorological Organization co-founded the
IPCC, so the buffoon thinks the IPCC is founded by TV weathermen.
Unum
May 23, 2013, 12:45:43 AM5/23/13
to
of published papers. Nitsky seems extremely excited about this Cook study.
Hey I was looking at the wikipedia article about 'scientific opinion about
climate change. A wealth of references there. Here I will help you;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change#Surveys_of_scientists_and_scientific_literature
In 2007, Harris Interactive surveyed 489 randomly selected members of either
the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Union for the
Statistical Assessment Service (STATS) at George Mason University. 97% of the
scientists surveyed agreed that global temperatures had increased during the
past 100 years; 84% said they personally believed human-induced warming was
occurring, and 74% agreed that "currently available scientific evidence"
substantiated its occurrence. Catastrophic effects in 50�100 years would
moderate and about 13 percent saw relatively little danger. 5% said they
thought human activity did not contribute to greenhouse warming.
gordo
May 23, 2013, 1:19:17 AM5/23/13
to
On Wed, 22 May 2013 20:08:16 -0700, Chom Noamsky <wea...@stew.yum>
wrote:
Buffoon? You are a shithead buffoon with less brains than a sack
full of hammers.
. I posted how you could become a member of the AMS.I know the history
of the IPCC and it did not include your local weatherman.Your local
weatherman is a member of the AMS and is not a PhD.
wrote:
full of hammers.
. I posted how you could become a member of the AMS.I know the history
of the IPCC and it did not include your local weatherman.Your local
weatherman is a member of the AMS and is not a PhD.
AM
May 23, 2013, 12:58:37 PM5/23/13
to
want to do anything meaningful about it when the solutions economically
are worse than the so called problem.
Sorry for people like you who love totalitarian governments...
erschro...@gmail.com
May 23, 2013, 3:02:03 PM5/23/13
to
On May 22, 11:08 pm, Chom Noamsky <wea...@stew.yum> wrote:
Here's what AMS said of the members surveyed:
(http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/report/american-
meteorological-society-member-survey-global-warming-preliminary-
findings-february)
AMS Members are a diverse group of professionals from
throughout the
weather and climate enterprise. Members must meet at least
one of the
following professional and/or educational requirements (although
AMS holds
a broad and inclusive interpretation of these requirements):
hold a
baccalaureate or higher degree from an accredited institution
of higher
learning in the atmospheric or related sciences; or hold a
baccalaureate or
higher degree from an accredited institution of higher
learning in some other
science or a related field and be currently engaged in a
professional activity in
which his or her knowledge is applied to the advancement or
application of
the atmospheric or related sciences; or have completed at
least 20 semester
hours of college level coursework in the atmospheric or
related sciences and
have at least three years of professional experience in the
last five years
So a bachelor's degree in any science and working "in a
professional activity in
which his or her knowledge is applied to the advancement or
application of
the atmospheric or related sciences" [TV weatherman falls under
this] is sufficient to have been included in the survey.
The survey also had 26.4 % of those surveyed respond. Hmmm ... why no
xx % of xx % in your post?
They also tell us 52% have Ph.D.s (so are professional scientists).
Hmmm... even then, 89% said GW is happening. Gee, you denialists have
been telling us it stopped in 1996, or 1998, or some year.
76 % said if GW isn't stopped, it will be very harmful or somewhat
harmful to people and society. 72% were worried or somewhat worried.
82% strongly or somewhat agree AMS should help educate the public
about GW.
(http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/report/american-
meteorological-society-member-survey-global-warming-preliminary-
findings-february)
AMS Members are a diverse group of professionals from
throughout the
weather and climate enterprise. Members must meet at least
one of the
following professional and/or educational requirements (although
AMS holds
a broad and inclusive interpretation of these requirements):
hold a
baccalaureate or higher degree from an accredited institution
of higher
learning in the atmospheric or related sciences; or hold a
baccalaureate or
higher degree from an accredited institution of higher
learning in some other
science or a related field and be currently engaged in a
professional activity in
which his or her knowledge is applied to the advancement or
application of
the atmospheric or related sciences; or have completed at
least 20 semester
hours of college level coursework in the atmospheric or
related sciences and
have at least three years of professional experience in the
last five years
So a bachelor's degree in any science and working "in a
professional activity in
which his or her knowledge is applied to the advancement or
application of
the atmospheric or related sciences" [TV weatherman falls under
this] is sufficient to have been included in the survey.
The survey also had 26.4 % of those surveyed respond. Hmmm ... why no
xx % of xx % in your post?
They also tell us 52% have Ph.D.s (so are professional scientists).
Hmmm... even then, 89% said GW is happening. Gee, you denialists have
been telling us it stopped in 1996, or 1998, or some year.
76 % said if GW isn't stopped, it will be very harmful or somewhat
harmful to people and society. 72% were worried or somewhat worried.
82% strongly or somewhat agree AMS should help educate the public
about GW.
gordo
May 23, 2013, 8:54:00 PM5/23/13
to
Thu, 23 May 2013 12:02:03 -0700 (PDT), "erschro...@gmail.com"
Waiting for Chompski to say he was wrong.Think you will ever hear it?
Unum
May 23, 2013, 9:51:46 PM5/23/13
to
Dawlish
May 24, 2013, 2:20:42 AM5/24/13
to
On Wednesday, May 22, 2013 10:07:30 PM UTC+1, erschro...@gmail.com wrote:
> > How many tornadoes have you heard of in the equatorial region, where
>
> > there is plenty of heat, humidity and frequent thunderstorms?
>
>
>
> That's not what triggers one. It's a clash of cold air and hot humid
>
> air. You also don't see many west of the Rockies. It's the cold
>
> arctic air meeting the warm humid air from the Gulf of Mexico.
He's run away from this piece of stupidity, hasn't he?
> > How many tornadoes have you heard of in the equatorial region, where
>
> > there is plenty of heat, humidity and frequent thunderstorms?
>
>
>
> That's not what triggers one. It's a clash of cold air and hot humid
>
> air. You also don't see many west of the Rockies. It's the cold
>
> arctic air meeting the warm humid air from the Gulf of Mexico.
Deniers reveal themselves as being stupid when they are found lacking and then run away, hoping no-one will notice. They do, deniers, I can assure you. <laughing>
Desertphile
May 25, 2013, 12:33:39 PM5/25/13
to
On Tue, 21 May 2013 20:20:06 -0700 (PDT), prawnster
<zweib...@ymail.com> wrote:
> On Tue, 21 May 2013 19:40:21 -0600, Desertphile <Deser...@spammegmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> > Is Still Out
> >
> > http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
> Science isn't up for a vote
Did you see anyone here who said it was?
<zweib...@ymail.com> wrote:
> On Tue, 21 May 2013 19:40:21 -0600, Desertphile <Deser...@spammegmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> > Is Still Out
> >
> > http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
Did you see anyone here who said it was?
Desertphile
May 25, 2013, 12:34:07 PM5/25/13
to
On Tue, 21 May 2013 23:47:08 -0400, "James" <king...@fewpb.net>
> Relax. There is no global warming of any consequence.
Huh? Can you name even one science organization, anywhere in the
world, who agrees with you?
Desertphile
May 25, 2013, 12:35:44 PM5/25/13
to
On Tue, 21 May 2013 21:21:31 -0700, Chom Noamsky <wea...@stew.yum>
wrote:
wrote:
> How many tornadoes have you heard of in the equatorial region, where
> there is plenty of heat, humidity and frequent thunderstorms?
The ITCZ is called "the doldrums" for a reason, silly.
> there is plenty of heat, humidity and frequent thunderstorms?
Desertphile
May 25, 2013, 12:42:23 PM5/25/13
to
the jet stream to elongate father southward, which in turn caused the
circulation to slow. When a low pressure cell moves southward and over
the central eastern USA states, it sucks up a hell of a lot of warm
moist air from the (warming) Atlantic ocean.
Desertphile
May 25, 2013, 12:37:53 PM5/25/13
to
On Tue, 21 May 2013 23:32:49 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish <pjg...@hotmail.com>
wrote:
> On Tue, 21 May 2013 21:21:31 -0700, Chom Noamsky <wea...@stew.yum> wrote:
>
> > On 5/21/2013 6:40 PM, Desertphile wrote:
> > > Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> > > Is Still Out
> > >
> > > http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
> > >
> > > Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
> > > the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
> > > change.
> > >
> > > There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
> > > leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
> > > suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
> > > unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
> > > children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
> > > schools and hospitals.
> > >
> > > But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
> > > change?
> > >
> > > Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
> > >
> > > While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
> > > (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
> > > climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
> > > between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
> > >
> > > The IPCC�s special report on managing extreme risks states: �There is
> > >
> > > In laymen�s terms: We don�t have enough data to measure, since the
> > > favorable for breeding destructive storms,� says Michael Mann, climate
> > > likely to be favorable, and the other is a wildcard, it�s still more
> > > that matter�you�d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency
allowable sheer force. On the other hand, the ITCZ has convection
going damn near straight up: this is why it's called "the doldrums."
Yer one more thing "Chom Noamsky" is vastly ignorant about.
wrote:
> On Tue, 21 May 2013 21:21:31 -0700, Chom Noamsky <wea...@stew.yum> wrote:
>
> > On 5/21/2013 6:40 PM, Desertphile wrote:
> > > Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> > > Is Still Out
> > >
> > > http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/21/does-climate-change-impact-tornados
> > >
> > > Scientists don't yet have enough data to determine if twisters, like
> > > the one that destroyed Moore, Oklahoma, are enhanced by climate
> > > change.
> > >
> > > There's no debating the devastation of the two-mile-wide tornado that
> > > leveled much of Moore, Oklahoma, yesterday, May 20. The Oklahoma City
> > > suburb, situated right in the heart of Tornado Alley, suffered
> > > unimaginable loss of life and destruction: 24 deaths, including nine
> > > children, and an untold number of pulverized buildings, including
> > > schools and hospitals.
> > >
> > > But, is this particular type of extreme weather caused by climate
> > > change?
> > >
> > > Short answer: Depends on whom you ask and how you ask it.
> > >
> > > While the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
> > > (IPCC), Rajenda Pachauri, says that this tornado cannot be pinned on
> > > climate change, some scientists are starting to connect the dots
> > > between global warming and stronger tornadoes.
> > >
> > > low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena
> > > such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
> > > inadequacies in monitoring systems.�
> > > such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
> > >
> > > In laymen�s terms: We don�t have enough data to measure, since the
> > > United States only began keeping reliable tornado records in 1953, and
> > > Doppler radar wasn�t used for weather until the 1970s.
> > >
> > > On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
> > > warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
> > > and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
> > > disruption.
> > >
> > > �As far as climate change is concerned, there will likely be a greater
> > > On the other hand: An increase in tornadoes is consistent with the
> > > warmer, wetter world created by climate change, and particularly large
> > > and unprecedented tornado events may represent the results of climate
> > > disruption.
> > >
> > > clashing of cold air masses from the north with even warmer, even more
> > > humid air masses coming off the Gulf of Mexico�conditions that are
> > > favorable for breeding destructive storms,� says Michael Mann, climate
> > > scientist at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey
> > > Stick and the Climate Wars.
> > >
> > > �The wildcard is the sheer�we don�t know with certainty whether that
> > > Stick and the Climate Wars.
> > >
> > > will increase or not in the key regions for tornado formation as a
> > > result of climate change,� Mann continues. �But if one factor is
> > > likely to be favorable, and the other is a wildcard, it�s still more
> > > likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable. Thus, if
> > > you�re a betting person�or the insurance or reinsurance industry for
> > > that matter�you�d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency
> > > and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate
> > > change.�
> > >
> > > Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
> > > National Center for Atmospheric Research, does the math: �The climate
> > > Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA
> > > change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of
> > > the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
> > > a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
> > > 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
> > > events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
> > > buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
> > > super-cell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.�
> > > the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to
> > > a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for
> > > 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of 3 = 1.33.) So there is a chain of
> > > events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic
> > > buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a
> > >
> > > By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
> > > common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
> > > stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
> > > tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
> > > afternoon).
> > >
> > > The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
> > > climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
> >
> > How many tornadoes have you heard of in the equatorial region, where
> > there is plenty of heat, humidity and frequent thunderstorms?
> There's ignorance in the first degree. Tornado formation requires a steep
> horizontal temperature gradient, often across a cold front.
Exactly so. Not only a steep gradient, but a narrow margin of
> > > By meteorological standards, the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado was a
> > > common, garden variety twister: warm humid air meeting a strong jet
> > > stream with strong winds, in the middle of Tornado Alley, during prime
> > > tornado season (May and June) and during the prime tornado hours (late
> > > afternoon).
> > >
> > > The only abnormal thing about this tornado was its sheer size. The
> > > climate dice have indeed been loaded for bigger and badder supercells.
> >
> > How many tornadoes have you heard of in the equatorial region, where
> > there is plenty of heat, humidity and frequent thunderstorms?
> There's ignorance in the first degree. Tornado formation requires a steep
> horizontal temperature gradient, often across a cold front.
allowable sheer force. On the other hand, the ITCZ has convection
going damn near straight up: this is why it's called "the doldrums."
Yer one more thing "Chom Noamsky" is vastly ignorant about.
Desertphile
May 25, 2013, 12:43:11 PM5/25/13
to
On Wed, 22 May 2013 03:34:43 -0700 (PDT), matt_sykes
<zze...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> On Tue, 21 May 2013 19:40:21 -0600, Desertphile <Deser...@spammegmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> > Is Still Out
> >
assertion?
> I mean this is your stance
No.
<zze...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> On Tue, 21 May 2013 19:40:21 -0600, Desertphile <Deser...@spammegmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Does Human-caused Climate Change Impact Tornadoes? The Scientific Jury
> > Is Still Out
> >
> Isnt all climate change due to Humans?
Have you ever seen or heard any scientist who agrees with that silly
assertion?
> I mean this is your stance
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