Hurricane Wilma? Two competing candidates for Tropical Depression #21 forming now. The one off Florida looks like WILMA-to-be.
Science Cop
one off Florida looks like WILMA-to-be.
Roger Coppock
Rich
> What is the record for the most Tropical Depressions in a season?
>
Google returned the following link:
http://www.terradaily.com/news/hurricane-05zzzu.html
"This season, as of yet, is not the most active season on record. That
distinction belongs to the year 1933, in which there were 21 storms that
reached tropical storm strength. The year 1995 saw 19 tropical storms,
and 1969, 18."
--
Rich
Eric Swanson
scien...@sbcglobal.net says...
>
>Two competing candidates for Tropical Depression #21 forming now. The
>one off Florida looks like WILMA-to-be.
Tropical storm Tammy was just named by the National Hurricane Center.
Can Wubya be far behind?
--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------
Prescott Bush managed Nazi Thyssen's Silesian Coal 1926-1942
the 21st_05.
Well Done
>http://www.terradaily.com/news/hurricane-05zzzu.html
>"This season, as of yet, is not the most active season on record. That
>distinction belongs to the year 1933, in which there were 21 storms that
>reached tropical storm strength. The year 1995 saw 19 tropical storms,
>and 1969, 18."
>
cyclical nature of the hurricane phenomenon. It doesn't seem to
matter to our pet Roger that hurricane scientists INSIST that global
warming isn't driving these latest 'canes. The world is awash with
contrarian "experts" who are simply wrong.
--
): "I may make you feel, but I can't make you think" :(
(: Off the monitor, through the modem, nothing but net :)
Coby Beck
"Well Done" <Well...@WellHoned.com> wrote in message
news:bgmdk1hhpldoue2gg...@4ax.com...
> Rich <nos...@nospam.net> wrote:
>>http://www.terradaily.com/news/hurricane-05zzzu.html
>>"This season, as of yet, is not the most active season on record. That
>>distinction belongs to the year 1933, in which there were 21 storms that
>>reached tropical storm strength. The year 1995 saw 19 tropical storms,
>>and 1969, 18."
>>
> Watch the AGW parrots on this NG try to explain away the obvious
> cyclical nature of the hurricane phenomenon. It doesn't seem to
Haven't we passed that number yet this year? Anyway, 7 weeks to go...
--
Coby Beck
(remove #\Space "coby 101 @ bigpond . com")
Cory Bhreckan
No climatologists are claiming that global warming *creates* more
hurricanes. It's the *intensity* that may be affected. Hurricanes feed
on warm surface water, 79 degrees F. or more. The warmer the water (and
the lower the shear forces) the stronger the hurricane. How does surface
water get warm?
RayLopez99 @evilfucker.com
Sorry to wake you up to reality, bubba. The last full decade 1995-2004
had 25% MORE storms than any other 10-year span in history that we have
records for. Adding 2005 it gets worse than any 11-year stretch you can
find.
Forget those sad-sack climatologists: here's the PHYSICS which don't
change for ANYBODY. More heat fuel in the water means more vortexs
form, more tornadoes, more thunderstorms, more squalls, more tropical
depressions, more tropical storms and more hurricanes. Having more heat
fuel means longer seasons. Having more heat fuel meand a bonus extra
tornado season. Having more heat fuel means small storms grow bigger
than they would have otherwise.
Believe your eyes and believe the counts. No period of yesteryear
matchs the bad news of your lifetime.
Spreaders of criminal felony fraud are plaguing the body politic.
GLOBAL WARMING causes MORE STORMS.
GLOBAL WARMING causes MORE Hurricanes below 115 mph.
GLOBAL WARMING causes MORE Hurricanes above 115 mph.
GLOBAL WARMING causes MORE Expensive Storms causing more grief.
GLOBAL WARMING causes Hotter Heat Waves.
GLOBAL WARMING causes MORE droughts.
GLOBAL WARMING causes MORE floods.
Global Warming Smoking Gun: Hurricanes ARE INCREASING in Frequency and
Intensities. http://tinyurl.com/acsnd
Here's the stats on the storm totals.
1933 was the highest year for numbers of storms on the record. The
decade, 10-year stretch, that puts that year in the middle is 1928-1937
Compare: 1928-1937 = 10 years
17 Strong Hurricanes
32 Weak Hurricanes
Compare: 1995-2004 = 10 years
38 Strong Hurricanes
40 Weak Hurricanes
123% more Strong Hurricanes 1995-2004
25% more Weak hurricanes 1995-2004
The 1950s had a lot of storms:
Compare: 1950-1959 = 10 years
35 Strong Hurricanes
29 Weak Hurricanes
64 TOTAL Hurricanes
Compare: 1995-2004 = 10 years
38 Strong Hurricanes
40 Weak Hurricanes
78 TOTAL Hurricanes
8% more Strong Hurricanes 1995-2004
37% more Weak hurricanes 1995-2004
22% MORE TOTAL Hurricanes
The 1960s were turbulent in their way:
Compare: 1960-1969 = 10 years
28 Strong Hurricanes
35 Weak Hurricanes
63 TOTAL Hurricanes
Compare: 1995-2004 = 10 years
38 Strong Hurricanes
40 Weak Hurricanes
78 TOTAL Hurricanes
36% more Strong Hurricanes 1995-2004
14% more Weak hurricanes 1995-2004
24% MORE TOTAL Hurricanes
For every 4 strong hurricanes in the decade which had the biggest peak
year ever for hurricanes (1928-1937), there were 9 strong hurricanes of
115 mph winds or greater. This doesn't even count THIS YEAR with five
major hurricanes so far as part of the 10-year stretch of recent
decade.
If you add one more year to each of those older 10-year stretches and
add 2005 to the previous decade the news is worse.
Those three older decades are the worst of the worst over 154 years
since 1850-2004. And it is still getting worse.
HURICANE STAN definately was added by surplus heat fuel stored in the
waters. There is no alternate explanation. There is no 30-40 year cycle
of increasing hurricanes -- that is totally bogus, not found in the
history. It is urban myth. There is no 100 year cycle found in the
record -- another bogus myth. 1994-2004 is UNIQUE in the record.
It absolutely matches the predictions, absolutely matches the
temperature records (which are also record-breakers for hottest years,
hottest months), and it absolutely matches the GREENHOUSE GASES
accumulating in the atmosphere.
You owe an alternate explanation which explains ALL the evidence, these
and much more evidence. Heat TRAPPED in the system is killing us.
Genevieve
Too many strange things in the air to disagree with trible language,
especially when you walk out into the air and common sense says it's
hotter to your senses. Throwing smoke on it doesn't make the problem go
away and eventually will make it closer so we can see. Or do we already
have a way to stop it that we don't use because having the solution
would mean we could no longer create the problem?
Name them after whomever you want.
Genevieve
to some degree as weather sheer would come into play regardless of
temperature (that's basically the differential between upper and lower
atmosphere), basically if it's all around hot it's fine and if it's all
around cold it's fine. It's the DIFFERENTIAL (think speed differences
on the freeway) that is dangerous.
However I would like somebody to find me the one that says that based
on polar ice samples the 1990's was the hottest decade in 200,000
years....it's out there and I've heard of it....sounds like a smoking
gun.
Global_Warming @Peacemail.com
Genevieve wrote:
> However I would like somebody to find me the one that says that based
> on polar ice samples the 1990's was the hottest decade in 200,000
> years....it's out there and I've heard of it....sounds like a smoking
> gun.
Ice will not tell how hot it was.
What you need is to familiarize yourself with the Coral Bleaching of
1998 (and again in 2002).
Corals can tell you when they reach their heat death point by dying
enmasse. 87% of all corals bleached simultaneously in 1998, and many
died. The water temperatures were 2 degrees below their heat death
point where all of them would have died. If the oceans ever heated 2
degrees hotter in the past it would have left a record of mass
extinctions of corals. Since one-third of the life in the seas is
coral-dependent, the fossil record would show 1/3rd of life in the seas
went extinct. Since a lot of other life is dependent of coral-dependent
species, another third of life in the seas would have died and the mass
extinction would be in the fossil record.
So corals are the "Smoking Gun" that 1998 is the hottest year since a
long time, maybe for 50,000,000 years.
Your Tailpipe===== Coral Bleaching and Global Warming
http://tinyurl.com/aodkr
Google Results about 42,400 for "Coral Bleaching" 1998 OR 2002 "Global
Warming".
snippets from a few of the 42,400 websites
Coral Bleaching from Global Warming:
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/early-warning-signs-of-global-warming-coral-reef-bleaching.html
climate impacts
Early Warning Signs: Coral Reef Bleaching
Coral reefs are one of the most productive ecosystems on Earth,
providing many critical services to fisheries, shoreline protection,
tourism, and to medicine. They are also believed to be among the most
sensitive ecosystems to long-term climate change (Nurse et al., 1998).
Elevated sea surface temperatures can cause coral to lose their
symbiotic algae, which are essential for the nutrition and color of
corals. When the algae die, corals appear white and are referred to as
"bleached." Water temperatures of as little as one degree Celsius above
normal summer maxima, lasting for at least two to three days, can be
used as a predictor of coral bleaching events (Goreau and Hayes, 1994).
Studies indicate that most coral are likely to recover from bleaching
if the temperature anomalies persist for less than a month, but the
stress from sustained high temperatures can cause physiological damage
that may be irreversible (Wilkinson et al., 1999).
In 1998 coral reefs around the world experienced the most extensive and
severe bleaching in recorded history (ISRS, 1998; Wilkinson et al.,
1999). Coral bleaching was reported in 60 countries and island nations
at sites in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Persian Gulf,
Mediterranean and Caribbean. Indian Ocean corals were particularly
severely impacted, with greater than 70 percent mortality reported in
the Maldives, Andamans, Lakshadweep Islands, and in Seychelles Marine
Park System. Unlike most previous bleaching events in which severe
impacts were limited to less than 15 m water depth the 1998 bleaching
affected corals at up to 50 m water depth. This mass bleaching followed
similar but less severe events in 1987 and 1990. Prior to the early to
mid 1980s, bleaching tended to be rare and localized, and corals
generally recovered.
http://www.wcmc.org.uk/latenews/bleaching.htm
The 1998 Global Coral Bleaching Incident
1998 is proving to be the worst on record for the phenomenon of coral
bleaching, with shocking reports arising from countries across all of
the world's seas and oceans. Vast areas of coral reefs have been
devastated, with up to 90% of corals dead or dying in many areas.
http://www.aims.gov.au/pages/research/coral-bleaching/1997-98-mbe/mbe-01.html
The 1997-1998 Mass Bleaching Event Around the World
There has been significant bleaching of hard and soft corals in widely
separate parts of the world from mid-1997 to the last months of 1998.
Much of this bleaching coincided with a large El Nino event,
immediately switching over to a strong La Nina. Some of the reports by
experienced observers are of unprecedented bleaching in places as
widespread as (from west to east) the Middle East, East Africa, the
Indian Ocean, South, Southeast and East Asia, far West and far East
Pacific, the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean.
http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/corp_site/info_services/science/bleaching/
If stressful conditions, such as high water temperatures, prevail at a
regional level, large areas of coral reef can be affected in what is
known as a mass bleaching event. The mass bleaching events reported on
the Great Barrier Reef and elsewhere around the world over the last
5-10 years have been triggered primarily by anomalously high water
temperatures.
The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has suffered two mass coral bleaching
events in the last five years: in the summers of 1998 and 2002.
The mass bleaching event that occurred in the summer of 2002 affected
between 60% and 95% of reefs in the Marine Park. This was the worst
bleaching event ever recorded for the GBR. While most reefs that were
surveyed survived with relatively low levels of coral death, some
locations suffered severe damage with up to 90% of corals killed. Up to
5% of reefs on the GBR have been severely damaged during each of the
last two major bleaching events, including the inshore reefs around
Bowen and Mackay, and some reefs in the Coral Sea. Full recovery of
these badly damaged reefs will take many years to decades.
http://earthwatch.unep.net/emergingissues/oceans/coralbleaching.php
During the major El Niño in 1997-98, bleaching occurred on coral reefs
ranging from Kenya to French Polynesia and Baja California in the
Indo-Pacific, and from the Florida Keys to the Yucatan coast in the
Caribbean. For instance, in the Maldives, a massive bleaching event was
reported in May 1998. More than 90% of animals with algal symbionts,
including corals, giant clams, anemones and soft corals showed heavy
bleaching to depths of 20 metres at 8 locations on North Mahe atoll.
Swimming up the reef was described as like going up the snowcapped
Alps. Conditions at the time in the Maldives included surface water
temperatures of 32 degrees C extending down to 15 metres, very low wind
with no surface mixing, and a low tidal range of less than half a metre
(Elder, 1998).
Bleaching was also reported early in 1998 as starting in the
southernmost part of the Australian Great Barrier Reef and moving
northward, reaching New Caledonia. Corals in the Galapagos Islands
bleached at temperatures of 29 degrees C, a degree and a half warmer
than the critical temperature for bleaching at that site. Sea surface
temperatures in the major El Niño events of the 1980s were not quite
this warm (Strong, 1998).
http://eapei.home.att.net/Activities/SEAEI/SEA-09.htm
Coral bleaching occurs when zooxanthellae, the symbiotic algae that
provide coral polyps with nutrients, are expelled from the coral
tissues. Severe or extended bleaching events, may ultimately cause the
corals to die. Bleaching occurs at both localized and mass scales, with
global bleaching events occurring in 1982-83 and 1998. A strong
correlation exists between the incidence of coral bleaching and
increases in water temperature above 30ºC and solar radiation. This
relationship suggests that bleaching may occur with increased severity
and frequency over the next 30-50 years as a consequence of global
warming.
General trends observed during the 1998 mass coral bleaching included
severe bleaching in the Indian Ocean, medium bleaching with pockets of
severe events in the East-Asia and Pacific region, and medium to light
bleaching episodes in the South Pacific and the Caribbean. The already
severe impacts of destructive fishing and over-exploitation of the reef
resources in the East Asia-Pacific region were compounded by this event
and consequent coral mortality. Coral bleaching events are increasing
in frequency, extent, and severity. These large-scale bleaching events
are linked to global climate change and are expected to be a recurring
problem. Because most island and coastal populations in the East
Asia-Pacific region depend on coral reefs for nutrition, fisheries and
tourist income, as well as coastal protection, mass coral bleaching and
mortality create an environmental crisis that requires development of a
focussed, coordinated US Government response. This response must be
based on an understanding of the causes of coral bleaching and support
the region as it seeks to understand and mitigate the long-term
consequences of these events.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s93.htm
NATIONS AROUND THE WORLD EXPRESS CONCERN ABOUT CORAL BLEACHING,
NOAA ANNOUNCES
Coral ReefDecember 2 - NOAA announced today that an international
team of coral reef experts has reported that high sea surface
temperatures in 1998 have affected almost all species of corals,
leading to unprecedented global coral bleaching and mortality.
Corals live on the upper edge of their temperature tolerance, with high
temperatures directly damaging them. This means that the increase by
about 2 degrees Celsius predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change for the next 50 years would pose a serious threat. The
1998 bleaching event may have far-reaching negative consequences for
human health and economies that depend on biodiversity, fisheries,
tourism and shore protection provided by coral reefs.
Mofo
Prescott Bush managed Nazi Thyssen's Silesian Coal 1926-1942 wrote:
> the 21st_05.
Yeah, global warming was never around before either Bush was in office
was it? Even if every country in the world including the US stopped all
CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions today (much stricter than Kyoto) it
would take thousands of years for the ozone to repair and last I
checked there were a hell of a lot of planes, cars, boats, and
lawnmowers ad nausea across the world burning fossil fuel 24/7 not
including industry. There were 13 category 4 or higher hurricanes to
hit the US between 1898 and 1960, so in those 62 years of high power
storms, where was the global warming? Get a clue. The amount of major
storms in recent times since then does not compare, the Earth goes
through cycles. Do we impact it? Certainly, but not this much and there
is no proof to say otherwise.
Science Cop
Here's the PROOF. COUNT THE STORMS YOURSELF. Do your own math. Nobody
will stop you. Then bring your totals and your math here where
everybody can see them and show them to us.
UNTIL YOU SHOW DIFFERENT, here's the count I made, and the math that
proves it true...
http://tinyurl.com/bbw92
Archived copy of msg: The Hurricane Record (adapted from HURDAT
1851-2002 with 2003-2005 from
Wikipedia)
Use this URL for reference data these figures were computed from.
http://tinyurl.com/7gpnq
Archived copy of msg: Latest Recomputation of Hurricane Intensification
(inclusion of 2005 data upto TS Wilma)
Correction link for above: http://tinyurl.com/9yvss
Stats for 1996-2005 ten-year stretch:
78% more tropical storms than average.
43% more Hurricanes Category 1 than average.
25% less Hurricanes Category 2 than average.
38% more Major Hurricanes Category 3 than average.
195% more Major Hurricanes Category 4 than average.
252% more Major Hurricanes Category 5 than average.
Figures recomputed and published Oct-18-2005
By adding in the latest years storms the entire record average is
raised, even though the same number of storms occurred in yesteryears.
Then by comparing the latest decade to a higher total average, it
reduces the apparent increase in this decades activity. A fair
comparison would be the record from 1851-1995 to 1996-2005 to get the
true picture of how much more severe the weather has gotten this past
decade.