Warning.
John Winston
Look out California. Here comes a big one.
Let's all hope that it will not be as bad as they
say.
..................................................
..................................................
URGENT - BIG WINTER STORM WARNINGI usually shy
away from sending out negative posts, but in this
case I feel it imparitive those living in our
Westernmost states be warned of this event. It is
sent originally by Steve Johnson of the US
Geological Survey. His address and phone numbers
are listed below the message if you wish to verify
the info.
J-nis
(This could be a hoax but it does have an
attribution which could be checked out...Woz)
URGENT - BIG WINTER STORM WARNING
This was forwarded to us from a friend - a retired
fireman. I have no idea how true this is or will
be, but I thought it wouldn't hurt to warn you to
be careful. We certainly can use the rain, let's
just hope the storms are not as strong as
predicted here............
Some of you may know that climate modeling is a
hobby of mine (a terrific challenge for computer
hardware and software). Well, we are about to get
hit with what may be the strongest storm system in
known California history starting Sunday night. If
you want full details, you can read the warning
below. I'll give you the summary version of
several reports here.
The jet stream that is going to hit Southern
California is as powerful as has ever been
recorded on this planet before, over 230 mph. The
jet is at an extremely unusually low altitude, not
30,000 to 60,000 feet, but coming as low as 8,000
feet. This jet will be traveling over the
unusually warm El Nino waters of the eastern
pacific, and will be carrying freakish amounts of
energy and moisture. A huge series of storms is
going to slam into Los Angeles and the surrounding
areas just one after another for day after day for
up to two weeks.
The initial storms will be very cold, with snow
levels as low as 3,000 feet.
Heavy rain and snow will be hitting California
from San Diego to Eureka.
Next week, the driest places will see at least 3
inches of rain, the Los Angeles basin and northern
parts of the county and Ventura will see 6 to 10
inches. The wettest areas and cells within the
system will hit with up to 20 inches of rain.
Snowfall in the Sierras will be measured in the
TENS of feet. Powerful winds will be associated
with this storm--like a powerful Santa Ana but
blowing in the opposite direction, west to east.
Gusts up to 80 mph are forecast.
[I remember Sierra snowfall around 20 feet once,
maybe in the '70's or early '80's - it was very
striking when driving to Tahoe...Steve]
But it gets worse. For the first time that I'm
aware of, ALL of the various models are in
agreement about the second week of the storm.
Normally, beyond a week, the models diverge. But
due to the extreme strength of the weather
producing factors, this time all of the models
produce the same results for the 8-14 day period.
For the week of the 24th, we will be hit with a
powerful and WARM series of storms, as strong as
any we've seen. This heavy warm rainfall will fall
onto the newly laid snowpack and what will be
totally saturated ground, especially in the burn
areas of LA and will produce tremendous melting
and runoff, and the potential for record flooding.
Due to the low altitude of the jet stream, 200+
mph winds will slam directly into the Sierras,
producing tornado strength winds over a 200 mile
wide front. DON'T head to Mammoth for skiing when
you hear about the huge snow fall in the first
week.
Planes and helicopters are migrating out of the
coastal bases and into the interior bases of
Arizona and Nevada. They're taking this very
seriously. A friend of Scott's is a Navy weather
forecaster and he told Scott that the military is
moving assets east out of the way ahead of this
storm.
This may sound alarmist, but websites I check
related to weather modeling are using the word
"Biblical" for this system. If you can work from
home or commute by train, please plan on doing so.
The LA freeway system is going to be a mess for
the next week or two.
Peace and please take care,
KEEP READING, OTHER SOURCE !! From: UC
Environmental Protection Services Issues Sent:
Thursday, January 14, 2010 1:24 PM
Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak
in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to
be exerting an influence on our weather. The
strong jet has been apparent for quite some time
out over the open water, but the persistent block
had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that
the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet
is barreling towards us.
Multiple large and powerful storm systems are
expected to slam into CA from the west and
northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding
this extremely powerful jet stream directly into
the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous
dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous
disturbances right at the state and supplying them
with an ample oceanic moisture source.
The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much
of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite
cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and
strong to potentially very strong winds will
impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday
and continuing through at least the following
Sunday.
This will be the case for the entire state, from
(and south of) the Mexican border all the way up
to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation
will be all snow, and since temperatures will be
unusually cold for a precipitation event of this
magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall
is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly
measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after
it's all said and done. But there's a big and
rather threatening caveat to that (discussed
below). Individual storm events are going to be
hard to time for at least few more days, since
this jet is just about as powerful as they come
(on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and
the following Sunday, I expect categorical
statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches.
That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most
areas.
Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the
lowlands, with 10-20 inches in
orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will
see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps
triple that amount in favored areas.
This is where things get even more interesting,
though. The models are virtually unanimous in
"reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an
additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our
southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly
ominous pattern, because it implies the potential
for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop.
Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains
falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire
state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day
seven would be dubious at best. Since the models
are in such truly remarkable agreement, however,
and because of the extremely high potential impact
of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since
there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen
snow (even at relatively low elevations between
3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm
event would cause very serious flooding. This
situation will have to be monitored closely. Even
if the tropical connection does not develop,
expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely
be sufficient to cause flooding in and of
themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent
conditions).
In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful
winds may result from very steep pressure
gradients associated with the large and deep low
pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching
the coast by early next week. Though it's not
clear at the moment just how powerful these winds
may be, there is certainly the potential for a
widespread damaging wind event at some point,
and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts
in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at
200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the
mountains at some point). The details of this will
have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.
In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely
to be more active across California than any other
2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential
exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at
some point during this interval, especially with
the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event
during late week 2. In some parts of Southern
California, a whole season's worth of rain could
fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely
to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned...
Samuel Y. Johnson
Western Coastal and Marine Geology
U.S. Geological Survey
Pacific Science Center
400 Natural Bridges Drive
Santa Cruz, CA 95060
(831) 427-4746 voice
(831) 252-0812 cell
(831) 427-4709 FAX
sjoh...@usgs.gov
--
John Winston joh...@mlode.com