On Jan 25, 5:34 pm, p...@DIESPAMMERDIE.dk (Peter Bjørn Perlsø) wrote:
> Assume 10% of the world's GDP disappears due to carbon bans an carbon
> taxes and industry regulation and so on. (In comparison, full Kyoto
> compliance "only" eats 1-3% of the affected nations' GDP).
>
USA Assumptions, and screw the pathetic Dutch.
Assume 2.5 cents/kWh in 2016 from universal PV.
Assume 5,381 square miles of residential rooftops = 75m x 2,000 sq.ft.
Assume each home uses 24 kWh/day, x 365 days x 75m/homes = 657,000,000
kWhs.
Assume all US homes have blue PV rooftops, which costs the same as the
cheapest grade of composition asphalt shingles.
Assume 3,613,500,000,000 kilowatt hours total annual electricity
production from residential rooftops alone. (75m homes x 2000
sq.ft/home. x 12 watts/sq.ft. x 5.5 peak hours average daily sun x
365/days per year).
https://cia.gov/cia//publications/factbook/geos/us.html
Electricity - consumption: 3.717 trillion kWh (2004)
Total: 3.717 trillion kWh
Roofs: 3.6135 trillion kWh
Then start roofing the factories, offices, schools, stadiums, car ports
over mall parking lots.
The only losers are those who bet on dirty pollution, and that is
poetic justice the way it is supposed to be.
What's the cost? Everybody need a new roof anyway every 30 years or so,
so 1/3rd is the cost that would have been spent. At 2.5 cents sq.ft.
that saves $30,112,500,000 of the cost right off the bat. The balance
of costs is $60.225 billion, a couple of month's of Bush-Exxon's Steal
Iraq Oil War.
PV costs the same price as beer cans and beer bottles whenever it is
made in the same quantities as beer cans and beer bottles because it is
made from the same stuff as beer cans and beer bottles. Crush some beer
bottles and beer cans as thin as business cards and tell me how many
bottles and cans to the square foot? There are 12 watts per square foot
of polycrystal PV, so 30 cents a foot INSTALLED gives 2.5 cents a watt.
Assume that Pecker Bløwjob Perlsø has an asshole the size of the
Queen Elizabeth II and is getting screwed by a dick the size of the
Graf Zeppelin. It has nothing to do with anything, but it's funny to
imagine, just like his bogus numbers have no relationship to reality
either.
>
> What's the cost? Everybody need a new roof anyway every 30 years or so,
> so 1/3rd is the cost that would have been spent. At 2.5 cents sq.ft.
> that saves $30,112,500,000 of the cost right off the bat. The balance
> of costs is $60.225 billion, a couple of month's of Bush-Exxon's Steal
> Iraq Oil War.
>
> PV costs the same price as beer cans and beer bottles whenever it is
> made in the same quantities as beer cans and beer bottles because it is
> made from the same stuff as beer cans and beer bottles. Crush some beer
> bottles and beer cans as thin as business cards and tell me how many
> bottles and cans to the square foot? There are 12 watts per square foot
> of polycrystal PV, so 30 cents a foot INSTALLED gives 2.5 cents a watt.
Lets figure out the cost of your grand plan:
Finding direct quotes for PV panel prices per area is difficult (have a
guess as to why...), but I found an example of a large, existing
installation:
http://www.theclimategroup.org/index.php?pid=614
60000 sq ft. = 5.574 sq. m. (round to 5500 m^2 for simplicity)
Price: $8 million (though, including lower-power lighting for the whole
installation)
8e6 $ / 5500 m^2 = 1454 $/m^2
Now, let's see how many households there are in the US:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/efficiency/recs_3_table.htm
Lets use the 274 million figure and go with that.
Assume every household needs a 100 m^2 installation (this will decrease
as PV becomes more efficient). 100 m^2 *1454 $/m^2 = 1.454 million US $/
household.
With 274e6 households, the price right now would be a total:
398.396 e 12 US $.
That is approximately 398 trillion dollars.
Problem is that if we were to equip all US households with PV, the
market prices would increase significantly. So, a conservative estimate
would be to doubte the above price, and thus we arrive at around 800
trillion US$.
Extrapolate to the globe. 6 billion humans, that is 20 times the US
population. Multiply 800 trillion US$ by 20. Result:
16 quadrillion US $ ... 16e16 US $ to PV the whole planet.
OK, so my assumptions may have been pessimistic. Lets adjust them:
Assume the actual cost of the PV installation quoted is only 1/2 of the
price in the article. Divide total price by 2.
Assume significantly lower energy use per household, for whatever
optimistic reason. Divide total price by 2.
Assume that PV efficiency quadruples from the existing 13% to beyond the
MAGIC 50% to 52%, AND that the price of the PV panels will be unchanged
despited the more advanced technology. Divide total price by 4.
Assume no market price increase for PV, due to more silicon refining
capacity, and less state barriers to installing your own PV at home, and
more market competition. Divide total price by 2.
SO, the original figure for the whole US would be 800e12 US$ divided by
(2*2*4*2) = 800e12/32 = 25 trillion US$.
That is, twice the current GNP of the US. And this is with wildly
optimistic expectations.
And when exactly do you expect this to happen? Within 20 years?
Addition:
But oh no! Prices are going up!
http://www.namastesolar.com/faqs1.html#prices
Unfortunately, solar panel prices are expected to rise steadily for the
next 2 years or more. The problem lies with the constrained supply of
purified silicon, which is the raw material required for manufacturing
the majority of solar PV cells. Starting in early 2005, the rapid growth
of the PV and semiconductor industries began to outpace the global
capacity to refine silicon, leading to the first price increases in the
PV industry in decades. The silicon shortage will likely last two years
or more, causing solar panel prices to continue rising over the same
period. In 2005, solar panel prices increased by 15-20%. Further price
increases are expected in 2006 as the tax credit program begins, new
states like Colorado begin their solar rebate programs, California
triples their solar PV installation goals (news story #1), Germany
shows no signs of slowing down and countries like Spain and Italy are
following in their footsteps.
>
> Assume that Pecker Bløwjob Perlsø has an asshole the size of the
> Queen Elizabeth II and is getting screwed by a dick the size of the
> Graf Zeppelin. It has nothing to do with anything, but it's funny to
> imagine, just like his bogus numbers have no relationship to reality
> either.
Please keep your sociopathic insults to yourself.
--
regards , Peter B. P. - http://titancity.com/blog , http://macplanet.dk
"If guns kill, do pencils cause spelling errors?"
> [hanson]
> That's a very bad sales job you did again, "Awe Shit".
> Not even dilettante, it is so bad.
> You are driving all your customers away, you homo.
> Leon, do it the right way. ***Learn from Exxon!!!***
> ***Learn how Exxon sells its stuff!!!***.
> Don't be a little green idiot.
> ahahaha.... ahahahahanson
In that case, maybe we should ask Leon how the weather is in Santa Rosa
in the Golden State... ?
[hanson]
> Leon Kuntz aka "Awe Shit" is very obedient.. ahahahahaha...
> ahahaha... Now watch how Leon comes running when he hears
> the cyber label "Awe Shit" that he assigned to himself.
> Watch now how "Awe Shit" gets mad .... AHAHAHAHA....
>
> Homosexual welfare case & mental patient Lion Kuntz aka "Awe Shit" aka
"Saddam's Noose, Exxon's Neck" <Exxon....@ScienceCop.info> w/i
news:1169791463.6...@l53g2000cwa.googlegroups.com
news:1169782398.1...@s48g2000cws.googlegroups.com...
>
>> [Homo "Awe Shit" wrote:]
>> Ass...
>> Ass...
>> Ass...
>> Ass...
>> Ass...
>> Ass...
>> What's the cost?
>> Assume that Pecker Bløwjob Perlsø has an asshole the size of the
>> Queen Elizabeth II and is getting screwed by a dick the size of the
>> Graf Zeppelin. It has nothing to do with anything, but it's funny to
>> imagine, just like his bogus numbers have no relationship to reality
> either.
>
[hanson]
> That's a very bad sales job you did again, "Awe Shit".
> Not even dilettante, it is so bad.
> You are driving all your customers away, you homo.
> Leon, do it the right way. ***Learn from Exxon!!!***
> ***Learn how Exxon sells its stuff!!!***.
>
["Awe Shit" hallucinates]
They sell their stuff at the point of a gun.
>
[hanson]
ahahaha... But "Awe Shit" you must be the only one in the world
that gets dragged to the gas station at gun point... Why is that?
You don't even have a car!.... ahahaha...
>
["Awe Shit" switches subject]
That's what the SURGE in Iraq is about, bringing barrels of blood
and ground up human bones to fill up your SUVs. If there wasn't oil
there, the people who republicans privately and publicly call
"sand niggers" wouldn't be worth a damn -- look at Lebanon, no oil
there, no US troop either bringing DEMONocracy to the Middle East.
If voting could change anything it would be illegal. Saddam used to
have elections too, won 100% of the vote every time.
>
[hanson]
That's a very bad sales job you did again, "Awe Shit".
Not even dilettante, it is so bad.
You are driving all your customers away, you homo.
Leon, do it the right way. ***Learn from Exxon!!!***
***Learn how Exxon sells its stuff!!!***.
>
["Awe Shit" looks for clues of his own origin]
Are you still sore that after testing the DNA of over 1,000 sailors on
leave in your hometown at your time of conception that you still
haven't identified your real dad yet? BooHooHoo Hanson, Cried Like A
little Girl.
>
[hanson]
.... ahahahaha... Yup, you got mad alright, "Awe Shit".... ahahaha..
Now why don't you sell something and you'll notice after your very
first sale, that your head will become screwed on as it should be.
Here is the offer again, Leon:
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.environment/msg/e55c903983077456
A year after warning Americans that they are 'addicted to oil,' he
called for mandatory rules aimed at cutting US petrol consumption by 20
per cent over the next 10 years by requiring higher fuel efficiency for
passenger cars and increased use of alternative fuels.
He also called for a doubling of the US national oil stockpile to 1.5
billion barrels by 2027 to cushion the nation against import shocks.
'America is on the verge of technological breakthroughs that will
enable us to live our lives less dependent on oil,' Bush said in his
speech to lawmakers.
'These technologies will help us be better stewards of the environment
and they will help us to confront the serious challenge of global
climate change,' he said.
Bush said the plan would make the US oil supplies less vulnerable to
'hostile regimes' and terrorists, but it also reflects growing pressure
on Bush to act against global warming after years of criticism by
foreign leaders and international organizations.
If enacted by the government, it would require Americans to increase
the use of renewable and alternative fuels nearly fivefold by 2017,
stopping the projected growth of US carbon-dioxide emissions from
vehicles by the same year, according to the White House.
BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo. BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo.
BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo. BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo.
BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo. BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo.
BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo. BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo.
BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo. BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo.
BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo. BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo.
BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo. BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo.
BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo. BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo.
BooHoooHoooo Hanson BooHoooHoooo.
http://snipurl.com/mpl2
Results about 49,700 for Ray Lopez Arrested for Child Molesting.
http://snipurl.com/mpl6
Results about 10,400 for Ray Lopez Admits Guilt in Court for Child
Molesting.
http://snipurl.com/mplc
Results about 37,100 for Ray Lopez agent for Al Qaeda in 9/11 Attacks.
http://snipurl.com/mpld
Results 1 - 42 of about 175 for Ray Lopez Weds Whitehouse Homo Hooker
Jeff Gannon.
http://snipurl.com/mplf
Results 1 - 30 of about 65 for Jeff Gannon Turns Out Ray Lopez as Homo
Streetwalker.
http://snipurl.com/mplg
Results 1 - 100 of about 657 for Oil Industry Buys Tawdry Ray Lopez as
Executive Sex Toy.
http://snipurl.com/mpli
Results 1 - 99 of about 212 for Exxon Execs Drills Ray Lopez's Back
Slope.
http://snipurl.com/mpll
Results 1 - 100 of about 143 for Ray Lopez oilfield nickname: I feel a
gusher coming..
The Story of Jeff Gannon, White House Credentialed Press Corps:
http://americablog.blogspot.com/2005/02/man-called-jeff.html
Notice YOU MUST BE OVER 21 and REPUBLICAN to view this dirty picture of
a Whitehouse "Excort" in the nude.
XXX over 21! http://americablog.blogspot.com/bdnud.jpg
UNDERNEWS: ALL JEFF GANNON ALL THE TIME
One White House reporter expressed revulsion over the fact that it was
[Ari] ... AND GEORGE ARCHIBALD WASHINGTON TIMES, 1989: A
homosexual prostitution ring ...
http://prorev.com/2005/02/all-jeff-gannon-all-time.htm
The Washington Note: Comment on The White House's "Don't Ask, Don ...
Does anything happen in this White House without Rove's approval? ...
Let's see, a male prostitute gained access to the WH under an assumed
name. ...
www.thewashingtonnote.com/mt/mt-comments.cgi?entry_id=319
The Washington Note Archives
If he was already a prostitute, why not be one in the White House
... hope that a tawdry tale involving homosexual prostitution will
shock the
nation into ...
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/000319.html
http://tinyurl.com/dwh6a
Results about 47,900 for Whitehouse homosexual prostitutes "Washington
Times".
[hanson]
> Leon Kuntz aka "Awe Shit" is very obedient & stupid...hahahaha...
> ahahaha... Now watch how Leon comes running when he hears
> the cyber label "Awe Shit" that he assigned to himself.
> Watch now how "Awe Shit" gets mad .... AHAHAHAHA....
>
> Homosexual welfare case & mental patient Lion Kuntz aka "Awe Shit" aka
"Saddam's Noose, Exxon's Neck" <Exxon....@ScienceCop.info> w/i
news:1169791463.6...@l53g2000cwa.googlegroups.com
news:1169782398.1...@s48g2000cws.googlegroups.com...
news:1169811782.5...@s48g2000cws.googlegroups.com...
["Awe Shit"]
> "Disinterested Observers" can be dug up to say anything you want them
> to say. For instance, Google.com is a search engine, a robot, which is
> about as disinterested as you will ever find. Here's what Google.com
> has to say about Ray Lopez...
>
[hanson]
That's a very bad sales job you did again, "Awe Shit".
Not even dilettante, it is so bad.
You are driving all your PV & PftP customers away, you homo.
Leon, do it the right way. ***Learn from Exxon!!!***
***Learn how Exxon sells its stuff!!!***.
BTW, Leon, nobody is taking about Ray Lopez. You are not
only a substandard peddler for your ideas, you are paranoid
to boot. Lopez wouldn't give you a dime. Listen, there are
people who do have visions like you. But unlike you they have
money. All you gotta do is ask. Here is the offer again, Leon:
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.environment/msg/e55c903983077456
http://ScienceCop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheSunBetrayed
http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheCarbonWar
http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Cartel+Solar+Patents
http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/ExxonMobil-GlobalWarming-tobacco.html
Scientists' Report Documents ExxonMobil's Tobacco-like Disinformation
Campaign on Global Warming Science -- Oil Company Spent Nearly $16
Million to Fund Skeptic Groups, Create Confusion
In sci.econ, Peter Bjørn Perlsø
<pe...@DIESPAMMERDIE.dk>
wrote
on Fri, 26 Jan 2007 05:47:55 +0100
<1hsj84e.9wr8jn1vttmpzN%pe...@DIESPAMMERDIE.dk>:
> Saddam's Noose, Exxon's Neck <Exxon....@ScienceCop.info> wrote:
>
>>
>> What's the cost? Everybody need a new roof anyway every 30 years or so,
>> so 1/3rd is the cost that would have been spent. At 2.5 cents sq.ft.
>> that saves $30,112,500,000 of the cost right off the bat. The balance
>> of costs is $60.225 billion, a couple of month's of Bush-Exxon's Steal
>> Iraq Oil War.
>>
>> PV costs the same price as beer cans and beer bottles whenever it is
>> made in the same quantities as beer cans and beer bottles because it is
>> made from the same stuff as beer cans and beer bottles. Crush some beer
>> bottles and beer cans as thin as business cards and tell me how many
>> bottles and cans to the square foot? There are 12 watts per square foot
>> of polycrystal PV, so 30 cents a foot INSTALLED gives 2.5 cents a watt.
>
> Lets figure out the cost of your grand plan:
>
> Finding direct quotes for PV panel prices per area is difficult (have a
> guess as to why...), but I found an example of a large, existing
> installation:
>
> http://www.theclimategroup.org/index.php?pid=614
>
> 60000 sq ft. = 5.574 sq. m. (round to 5500 m^2 for simplicity)
>
> Price: $8 million (though, including lower-power lighting for the whole
> installation)
>
> 8e6 $ / 5500 m^2 = 1454 $/m^2
>
This is a 675 kW facility, which means that one is paying
a whopping $11.85 per watt. Of course, since the cost
includes light bulbs and other issues, that may be an
overestimate; most figures I've seen suggest $9/W for
residential use, and $6.80/W for wholesale -- mostly based
on the 11 MW plant built for $75M near Lisbon, Portugal.
(And that was a year or two ago.)
>
> Now, let's see how many households there are in the US:
>
> http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/efficiency/recs_3_table.htm
>
> Lets use the 274 million figure and go with that.
Considering that the population of 300M includes children, that
seems a bit high; I'd estimate more along the lines of 180M
households but that's pulled straight out of the air (though
the US Census website isn't being horribly clear on the matter).
Also, there are issues regarding apartment complexes.
>
> Assume every household needs a 100 m^2 installation (this will decrease
> as PV becomes more efficient).
It won't decrease much -- PV systems are already running
at 40%. I frankly don't know the average power usage
of a US household, and there are issues with automobiles
that you've largely ignored -- which is fine if that was
your intent. :-) However, as an illustration, I live in
a condo with a 40 amp heat pump, which means I take in
about 5 kW; if I'm lucky that gives me 25 kW-50 kW of heat.
(The precise amount of heat depends on inside and outside
temperature. The closer the temperatures, the more heat
gets transfered and the more efficient the unit is --
in theory. There's not a lot I can do about it, apart
from keeping the coils clean and the unit in good repair;
Carnot is the culprit here.)
Now I jump into my car. That's about 75 kW -- and that's
with a 4-banger. To be fair, that's probably only when
I'm going full throttle up a hill -- but it's still a
fair bit more than what's going into my heat pump.
> 100 m^2 *1454 $/m^2 = 1.454 million US $/
> household.
>
> With 274e6 households, the price right now would be a total:
>
> 398.396 e 12 US $.
>
> That is approximately 398 trillion dollars.
>
> Problem is that if we were to equip all US households with PV, the
> market prices would increase significantly. So, a conservative estimate
> would be to doubte the above price, and thus we arrive at around 800
> trillion US$.
>
> Extrapolate to the globe. 6 billion humans, that is 20 times the US
6.5 billion, actually.
> population. Multiply 800 trillion US$ by 20. Result:
>
> 16 quadrillion US $ ... 16e16 US $ to PV the whole planet.
>
>
>
> OK, so my assumptions may have been pessimistic. Lets adjust them:
>
> Assume the actual cost of the PV installation quoted is only 1/2 of the
> price in the article. Divide total price by 2.
>
> Assume significantly lower energy use per household, for whatever
> optimistic reason. Divide total price by 2.
>
> Assume that PV efficiency quadruples from the existing 13% to beyond the
> MAGIC 50% to 52%, AND that the price of the PV panels will be unchanged
> despited the more advanced technology. Divide total price by 4.
>
> Assume no market price increase for PV, due to more silicon refining
> capacity, and less state barriers to installing your own PV at home, and
> more market competition. Divide total price by 2.
>
> SO, the original figure for the whole US would be 800e12 US$ divided by
> (2*2*4*2) = 800e12/32 = 25 trillion US$.
>
> That is, twice the current GNP of the US. And this is with wildly
> optimistic expectations.
>
> And when exactly do you expect this to happen? Within 20 years?
>
>
>
> Addition:
>
> But oh no! Prices are going up!
>
It is inevitable that they do so, as we switch from a
carbon-based to a joule-based economy. I'll admit I have
no figures regarding how many units of energy go into the
production of a PV panel capable of generating 1 W of peak
power, though.
>
> http://www.namastesolar.com/faqs1.html#prices
>
> Unfortunately, solar panel prices are expected to rise steadily for the
> next 2 years or more. The problem lies with the constrained supply of
> purified silicon, which is the raw material required for manufacturing
> the majority of solar PV cells. Starting in early 2005, the rapid growth
> of the PV and semiconductor industries began to outpace the global
> capacity to refine silicon, leading to the first price increases in the
> PV industry in decades. The silicon shortage will likely last two years
> or more, causing solar panel prices to continue rising over the same
> period. In 2005, solar panel prices increased by 15-20%. Further price
> increases are expected in 2006 as the tax credit program begins, new
> states like Colorado begin their solar rebate programs, California
> triples their solar PV installation goals (news story #1), Germany
> shows no signs of slowing down and countries like Spain and Italy are
> following in their footsteps.
>
>
>>
>> Assume that Pecker Bløwjob Perlsø has an asshole the size of the
>> Queen Elizabeth II and is getting screwed by a dick the size of the
>> Graf Zeppelin. It has nothing to do with anything, but it's funny to
>> imagine, just like his bogus numbers have no relationship to reality
>> either.
>
> Please keep your sociopathic insults to yourself.
>
--
#191, ewi...@earthlink.net
Useless C++ Programming Idea #40490127:
for(;;) ;
--
Posted via a free Usenet account from http://www.teranews.com