The Christian Socialists have taken 61% of the popular vote in Bavaria in today's elections, capping three regional elections in the last year that the ruling SPD party has lost. Today's loss in Bavaria was expected - but not by the margin. It's the single worst loss by the SPD in Bavaria in the last forty years.
A year ago, Bavaria's CSU party chief, Edmund Stoiber predicted that within the year, Schroeder's government would lose the byelections and be replaced. Despite the CSU's campaign promises of not creating roadblocks in parliament, I wonder how long it will be until a no-confidence vote is called.
Germany, meet your new Chancellor - Angela Merkel.
> The Christian Socialists have taken 61% of the popular vote in Bavaria in > today's elections, capping three regional elections in the last year that > the ruling SPD party has lost. Today's loss in Bavaria was expected - but > not by the margin. It's the single worst loss by the SPD in Bavaria in > the last forty years.
> A year ago, Bavaria's CSU party chief, Edmund Stoiber predicted that > within the year, Schroeder's government would lose the byelections and be > replaced. Despite the CSU's campaign promises of not creating roadblocks > in parliament, I wonder how long it will be until a no-confidence vote is > called.
> Germany, meet your new Chancellor - Angela Merkel.
On Sun, 21 Sep 2003 22:24:21 +0000, SoCalMike wrote: > "Bill Diamond" <b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote in message > news:pan.2003.09.21.21.01.12.56616@linux.billdiamond.com... >> The Christian Socialists have taken 61% of the popular vote in Bavaria >> in today's elections, capping three regional elections in the last year >> that the ruling SPD party has lost. Today's loss in Bavaria was >> expected - but not by the margin. It's the single worst loss by the >> SPD in Bavaria in the last forty years.
>> A year ago, Bavaria's CSU party chief, Edmund Stoiber predicted that >> within the year, Schroeder's government would lose the byelections and >> be replaced. Despite the CSU's campaign promises of not creating >> roadblocks in parliament, I wonder how long it will be until a >> no-confidence vote is called.
>> Germany, meet your new Chancellor - Angela Merkel.
> so whats the big picture?
Angela Merkel is an Ossie - east german - which would be a political watershed event in Germany. She's also very close with the Bush administration. The Christian Democrats and Christian Socialists are part of the International Christian Democrats, of which the US Republican Party is also a member. Merkel recently made an unpublicized trip to the US and had a private meeting with Bush at the White House.
Should the CDU/CSU flex its poitical muscle, Edmund Stoiber will likely be Germany's next President and can push for snap elections to replace Schroeder and Fischer, thus removing the SPD/Green alliance from power. It would very likely move the German-US alliance back to the foreground, further isolating Chirac.
While the CDU/CSU is more politically conservative than the SPD, it still is very committed to Eurozone issues and has publicly taken the stand that Germany should reduce its budget to hew the line on no greater than 3% deficit spending. The CDU/CSU will effectively control the pending budget reforms that Schroeder's under intense pressure to submit to the Bundestag, where the CDU/CSU has a majority.
<b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote: >The Christian Socialists have taken 61% of the popular vote in Bavaria in >today's elections, capping three regional elections in the last year that >the ruling SPD party has lost. Today's loss in Bavaria was expected - but >not by the margin. It's the single worst loss by the SPD in Bavaria in >the last forty years.
>A year ago, Bavaria's CSU party chief, Edmund Stoiber predicted that >within the year, Schroeder's government would lose the byelections and be >replaced. Despite the CSU's campaign promises of not creating roadblocks >in parliament, I wonder how long it will be until a no-confidence vote is >called.
>Germany, meet your new Chancellor - Angela Merkel.
Bill, now you've gone and opened a can of worms. You know I lived there for 10 years and in all that time I never quite figured out how the political system works?
Okay, so Bavaria's CSU got 61% of the vote -- normally I would say, "so what?" since Bavaria is considered the rightmost of Germany's states, and you still have all those former East German states who've been voting PDS (Partei deutsche sozialisten -- German socialist party, AKA the former east German Communist Party). But Germany's got this proportional representation system, where everyone's vote seemingly counts, even if you vote PDS in Bavaria. I promise not to mention our Electoral College here.
And this is the first time I've heard Merkel's name mentioned since I left. I know she's the head of the CSU, former chancellor Helmut Kohl's party, and bastard sibling party of the CSU. There was quite a brouhaha about a year ago when Stoiber (who is the head of Bavaria's CSU -- please keep up, boys and girls) challenged Merkel (and if I may be a little catty here, is the only female politician I've seen to dare to have bangs) for the opportunity to go up against Gerhard Schroeder (head of the SPD).
As I understand it, Stoiber won that vote and represented CDU/CSU in the election, but eventually lost to the SPD. And where do the PDS and the Greens fit into all of this? I know the PDS (former Communists) did quite well in the last election, but where did they stand in Parliament?
And finally, is Markel now representing the CDU/CSU? What about Stoiber?
On Mon, 22 Sep 2003 06:52:58 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote: > On Sun, 21 Sep 2003 17:01:12 -0400, Bill Diamond > <b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote:
>>The Christian Socialists have taken 61% of the popular vote in Bavaria in >>today's elections, capping three regional elections in the last year that >>the ruling SPD party has lost. Today's loss in Bavaria was expected - but >>not by the margin. It's the single worst loss by the SPD in Bavaria in >>the last forty years.
>>A year ago, Bavaria's CSU party chief, Edmund Stoiber predicted that >>within the year, Schroeder's government would lose the byelections and be >>replaced. Despite the CSU's campaign promises of not creating roadblocks >>in parliament, I wonder how long it will be until a no-confidence vote is >>called.
>>Germany, meet your new Chancellor - Angela Merkel.
> Bill, now you've gone and opened a can of worms. You know I lived > there for 10 years and in all that time I never quite figured out > how the political system works?
Dan! Hey, I lived in Bavaria and politics is always a hot topic. One of my social acquaintances was the SPD's Bavarian political theoretician. Neat guy. Older than dirt, he was but a real gentleman. My most real political experience was in 1979 when I wandered into the Governor's palace in Munich. An older fellow dressed like a janitor started talking with me and showed me around the place. A few days later I saw his picture in the paper. It was Franz Josef Strauss, the Minister Governor of Bavaria.
> Okay, so Bavaria's CSU got 61% of the vote -- normally I would > say, "so what?" since Bavaria is considered the rightmost of > Germany's states, and you still have all those former East German > states who've been voting PDS (Partei deutsche sozialisten -- > German socialist party, AKA the former east German Communist > Party). But Germany's got this proportional representation > system, where everyone's vote seemingly counts, even if you vote > PDS in Bavaria. I promise not to mention our Electoral College > here.
The SPD had forecast getting at least 20% of the popular vote and said anything less than that would be a disaster. They polled 29% in the last Bavarian byelections two years ago, so this is a major defeat for the SPD. Oddly, the FDP dropped again below the 5% hurdle while the Greens polled better than they did two years ago.
This comes on the heels of two other state government elections that have given the SPD very poor showings. Exactly as you point out, the proportional representation means the CSU, along with its CDU coalition partner will take a majority in the Bundestag.
Here's the nub of how it works. When you vote in German byelections, you vote first for the candidates by name and then for the party you prefer to lead. Depending on how well the party does in the election, it gets a percentage of seats awarded to it so long as it gets at least 5% of the popular vote. The seats are apportioned to the parties and are awarded based on how well the individual candidates perform. In exceptional cases, like this CSU landslide, it means there may be more open CSU seats than there were candidates to fill them.
> And this is the first time I've heard Merkel's name mentioned > since I left. I know she's the head of the CSU, former chancellor > Helmut Kohl's party, and bastard sibling party of the CSU. There > was quite a brouhaha about a year ago when Stoiber (who is the > head of Bavaria's CSU -- please keep up, boys and girls) > challenged Merkel (and if I may be a little catty here, is the > only female politician I've seen to dare to have bangs) for the > opportunity to go up against Gerhard Schroeder (head of the SPD).
Schroeder and Fischer haven't had a good year. Not only have they last three successive elections for their party, the SPD, but they've each suffered their fourth divorce. No, I'm not making that up.
Merkel is an oddball. Very smart, former East German, wildly popular in conservative circles. Excellent partnership with Stoiber. According to Der Spiegel, it appears Stoiber controls enough seats to push for the Presidency, and then will have the opportunity to name Merkel as Chancellor and to form a government.
As you know, Germany has a slightly offbeat system. It's not quite a parliamentary system, more of a chancellor system. The Chancellor can name the entire cabinet, which can range from 17 to 22 members. The Chaancellor can also initiate all manner of policy issues without approval of the Bundesrat, Parliament's upper house.
Where the Chancellor has to get support is in the budget and that's mostly the Bundestag that comes into play. With the CDU/CSU coalition having a commanding majority, Schroeder faces a very stiff challenge in getting the concessions he wants. Stoiber made it rather clear that he considers Schroder's economic policies a failure and has called for Germany to follow the Bavarian model of "laptops and lederhosen". That is, strongly pro business while hewing to the Eurozone economic policies.
At present, Germany has twice notified the EU that it expecs to exceed deficit spending limits of 3.5%, and now expects deficit spending over 5%. Stoiber wants the line pulled back to 3% deficit spending, and this suggests less direct economic intervention in protecting large german industries as well as a reduction in public largesse.
> As I understand it, Stoiber won that vote and represented CDU/CSU > in the election, but eventually lost to the SPD. And where do the > PDS and the Greens fit into all of this? I know the PDS (former > Communists) did quite well in the last election, but where did > they stand in Parliament?
Stoiber is clearly the winner and the election was a debacle for the SPD which has already had rumblings of "heads will roll". The Greens have made some ground while the FDP has fallen back to new lows. Even the Red/Green coalition of the SPD/Green isn't enough to save them. The Greens single most popular politician is Joschka Fischer, currently German's foreign minister. There've been rumor circulating for months that he's planning on taking the EU Foreign Minister position. If he does that, then there's little chance Schroeder will survive.
> And finally, is Markel now representing the CDU/CSU? What about > Stoiber?
Merkel leads the CSU, which is the majority partner in the CDU/CSU coalition, called "The Union". That gives her first crack at forming a government, once Stoiber becomes President.
> Stoiber is clearly the winner and the election was a debacle for the SPD > which has already had rumblings of "heads will roll". The Greens have made > some ground while the FDP has fallen back to new lows. Even the Red/Green > coalition of the SPD/Green isn't enough to save them. The Greens single > most popular politician is Joschka Fischer, currently German's foreign > minister. There've been rumor circulating for months that he's planning > on taking the EU Foreign Minister position. If he does that, then there's > little chance Schroeder will survive.
is ms. fischer the one who called Bush a "Hitler" or some derogatory term like that?
On Mon, 22 Sep 2003 12:55:29 -0500, Dilbert Firestorm wrote: >> Stoiber is clearly the winner and the election was a debacle for the SPD >> which has already had rumblings of "heads will roll". The Greens have made >> some ground while the FDP has fallen back to new lows. Even the Red/Green >> coalition of the SPD/Green isn't enough to save them. The Greens single >> most popular politician is Joschka Fischer, currently German's foreign >> minister. There've been rumor circulating for months that he's planning >> on taking the EU Foreign Minister position. If he does that, then there's >> little chance Schroeder will survive.
> is ms. fischer the one who called Bush a "Hitler" or some derogatory term like that?
Joschka is a mister. It was one of Schroeder's appointed officials in the Justice ministry who made the comment. She was a sacrifice to the uproad following his re-election last year. Still unrepentant and still more equally outrageous comments that have come from his government, usually from the Greens.
Bill Diamond wrote: > On Mon, 22 Sep 2003 12:55:29 -0500, Dilbert Firestorm wrote:
>>>Stoiber is clearly the winner and the election was a debacle for the SPD >>>which has already had rumblings of "heads will roll". The Greens have made >>>some ground while the FDP has fallen back to new lows. Even the Red/Green >>>coalition of the SPD/Green isn't enough to save them. The Greens single >>>most popular politician is Joschka Fischer, currently German's foreign >>>minister. There've been rumor circulating for months that he's planning >>>on taking the EU Foreign Minister position. If he does that, then there's >>>little chance Schroeder will survive.
>>is ms. fischer the one who called Bush a "Hitler" or some derogatory term like that?
> Joschka is a mister. It was one of Schroeder's appointed officials in the > Justice ministry who made the comment. She was a sacrifice to the uproad > following his re-election last year. Still unrepentant and still more > equally outrageous comments that have come from his government, usually > from the Greens.
> Bill
guess I was mistaken. I thought the individuals name seemed similar, wasn't she a woman that did the name calling brouhahaha?.
Bill Diamond <b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote: > Stoiber is clearly the winner and the election was a debacle for > the SPD which has already had rumblings of "heads will roll". The > Greens have made some ground while the FDP has fallen back to new > lows. Even the Red/Green coalition of the SPD/Green isn't enough > to save them.
Is the Red/Green coalition the one that thinks it can solve every problem with duct tape?
-- Opus the Penguin "Any question that begins with "Why do my cats..." is rhetorical." - Jerry Randal Bauer
On Mon, 22 Sep 2003 21:46:16 -0500, Dilbert Firestorm wrote: > guess I was mistaken. I thought the individuals name seemed similar, > wasn't she a woman that did the name calling brouhahaha?.
Her name was Herta Daeubler-Gmelin, she was Justice Minister in Schroder's cabinet. Her nickname in parliament, by the way was Daeubler-Nasty. She also said that Bush belong in prison and that the US has a lousy justice system. She's still a member of parliament and still shooting her mouth off.
Schroeder tried to brush off the criticism of Daeubler-Gmelin at the time saying that the US was too thin skinned. A few months later, Italy's Berlusconi made an equally offensive comment to a german representative at the EU that resulted in Schroeder screaming how Germany was outraged and offended and then cancelled his summer trip to Italy. Thin-skinnedness has long been one of Schroeder's problems.
Under Germany's laws, all these appointments are made directly by the Chancellor who doesn't need approval of the upper house of parliament.
On Tue, 23 Sep 2003 03:12:40 +0000, Opus the Penguin wrote: > Bill Diamond <b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote:
>> Stoiber is clearly the winner and the election was a debacle for the >> SPD which has already had rumblings of "heads will roll". The Greens >> have made some ground while the FDP has fallen back to new lows. Even >> the Red/Green coalition of the SPD/Green isn't enough to save them.
> Is the Red/Green coalition the one that thinks it can solve every > problem with duct tape?
Sorry. The Red/Green coalition is the partnership between the SPD and the Green Party. The SPD and the East German SED effectively united following the end of the Cold War, although many members went to the Communist Workers Party, the KPD, instead. The KPD is more popular in the East than in the West.
Germany's politics pretty much center on the forming of coalitions and which party of faction leads the coalition majority. The CDU/CSU coalition, usually called "The Union" has been strongly allied for nearly 80 years, and sometimes joins with the Free Democrats, the FDP. While improbably, it's not unthinkable that the Greens would bolt from their current coalition partner and link up with the Union.
I don't think that's what in the cards, though. The Union seems to be on a roll and may very well pull Schroeder into a political trap with his reform program, thus leading to a no confidence vote and ending his government.
From my own experience in Germany, I will say their political parties are far more thoughtful and more strongly rooted in philosophical issues than their american counterparts. Sure, they have their slogans. I remember the SPD's was "Mit Frauen in der Sache der Frauen" (With Women in Women's Causes) from the late 1970s.
Still, they're worth checking out just to see how different politics are handled. Take a look at http://www.spd.de and http://www.cdu.de.
On Mon, 22 Sep 2003 21:46:16 -0500, Dilbert Firestorm
<scanb_no_spam31@*no_spam*I-55*no_spam*.com> wrote: >>>is ms. fischer the one who called Bush a "Hitler" or some derogatory term like that? >guess I was mistaken. I thought the individuals name seemed similar, wasn't she >a woman that did the name calling brouhahaha?.
You're probably thinking of Andrea Fischer (Green), the former health minister who was forced to resign.
"Since taking office as health minister two years ago, Andrea Fischer has attempted to implement a so-called major reform of the health system. The existing state-run scheme was to be broken up by privatising parts of the system and opening it up for major capital investors. The result would have been a two-class system of health care in which only the rich would be able to afford suitable heath care insurance and treatment.
However, although Fischer never demonstrated the least hesitancy to implement such a major attack on social rights, she was unable to impose her plans in the face of broad opposition from influential organisations representing doctors, health insurance companies and, above all, the all-powerful lobby of pharmaceutical companies who all saw their interests threatened. The coalition's Minister for Labour and Social Affairs Walter Riester (SPD) has run into similar problems in his attempts to “reform” the German pensions scheme. For some time there has also been speculation about his resignation."
<b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote: >On Mon, 22 Sep 2003 06:52:58 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote:
>> On Sun, 21 Sep 2003 17:01:12 -0400, Bill Diamond >> <b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote: >> Bill, now you've gone and opened a can of worms. You know I lived >> there for 10 years and in all that time I never quite figured out >> how the political system works? >Dan! Hey, I lived in Bavaria and politics is always a hot topic. One of >my social acquaintances was the SPD's Bavarian political theoretician. >Neat guy. Older than dirt, he was but a real gentleman. My most real >political experience was in 1979 when I wandered into the Governor's >palace in Munich. An older fellow dressed like a janitor started talking >with me and showed me around the place. A few days later I saw his >picture in the paper. It was Franz Josef Strauss, the Minister Governor >of Bavaria.
Well, my most real political experience was having dinner at the Bombay Club in DC and having Bill Clinton come over to our table to introduce himself. Very charming man, I must, say and very tall.
>> Okay, so Bavaria's CSU got 61% of the vote -- normally I would >> say, "so what?" since Bavaria is considered the rightmost of >> Germany's states, and you still have all those former East German >> states who've been voting PDS (Partei deutsche sozialisten -- >> German socialist party, AKA the former east German Communist >> Party). But Germany's got this proportional representation >> system, where everyone's vote seemingly counts, even if you vote >> PDS in Bavaria. I promise not to mention our Electoral College >> here.
>The SPD had forecast getting at least 20% of the popular vote and said >anything less than that would be a disaster. They polled 29% in the last >Bavarian byelections two years ago, so this is a major defeat for the >SPD. Oddly, the FDP dropped again below the 5% hurdle while the Greens >polled better than they did two years ago.
I'm totally out of the loop with German politics. I had a 1-year subscription to the Tagesspiegel am Sonntag, but let that lapse so now the only thing I hear about German politics is when Schroeder pays someone a visit or Joschka Fischer speaks to the UN. I do know that people are getting sick of the SPD -- as I understand it mostly due to the terrible economy. It started going downhill in 1994-95 and is still in the dumps.
>This comes on the heels of two other state government elections that have >given the SPD very poor showings. Exactly as you point out, the >proportional representation means the CSU, along with its CDU coalition >partner will take a majority in the Bundestag.
There was a Bundeswahl only last year, I believe, so the next one shouldn't be for another 3 or 4 years, right? Assuming, of course, a vote of no confidence isn't called. Hey a recall, German style! How about Lilo Wanders for Chancellor?
So there was a byelection -- does that mean that the SPD and its coalition partners no longer hold a majority of the seats in the Bundestag? And if that's the case shouldn't the coalition with the most seats appoint a Chancellor?
>Here's the nub of how it works. When you vote in German byelections, you >vote first for the candidates by name and then for the party you prefer to >lead. Depending on how well the party does in the election, it gets a >percentage of seats awarded to it so long as it gets at least 5% of the >popular vote. The seats are apportioned to the parties and are awarded >based on how well the individual candidates perform. In exceptional >cases, like this CSU landslide, it means there may be more open CSU seats >than there were candidates to fill them.
I remember seeing quite often on the campaign posters vote for such-and-such party second vote, or something like that. I know that you cast two votes, but it's still not quite clear to me how this works. The second vote is purely for a party, say CDU, then these votes are tallied and then the parties get a certain percentage of the candidates in the first vote, based on how many people voted for them?
>> And this is the first time I've heard Merkel's name mentioned >> since I left. I know she's the head of the CSU, former chancellor
^^^ That should read CDU.
>> Helmut Kohl's party, and bastard sibling party of the CSU. There >> was quite a brouhaha about a year ago when Stoiber (who is the >> head of Bavaria's CSU -- please keep up, boys and girls) >> challenged Merkel (and if I may be a little catty here, is the >> only female politician I've seen to dare to have bangs) for the >> opportunity to go up against Gerhard Schroeder (head of the SPD).
>Schroeder and Fischer haven't had a good year. Not only have they last >three successive elections for their party, the SPD, but they've each >suffered their fourth divorce. No, I'm not making that up.
I knew Schroeder was on his fourth marriage with a Barbie-doll lookalike, but wasn't aware that they had split and that Fischer was in the same position, so to speak. I once saw Fischer speaking in English and he speaks it very very well -- almost no accent.
>Merkel is an oddball. Very smart, former East German, wildly popular in >conservative circles. Excellent partnership with Stoiber. According to >Der Spiegel, it appears Stoiber controls enough seats to push for the >Presidency, and then will have the opportunity to name Merkel as Chancellor and to form a government.
Because of the CDU/CSU coalition, if CDU has the most votes in an election does this mean Merkel would be president and she would name Stoiber as Chancellor? I thought it was the other way around -- the leader of the party with the most votes becomes Chancellor and he appoints a President.
>As you know, Germany has a slightly offbeat system. It's not quite a >parliamentary system, more of a chancellor system. The Chancellor can name >the entire cabinet, which can range from 17 to 22 members. The >Chaancellor can also initiate all manner of policy issues without approval >of the Bundesrat, Parliament's upper house.
>Where the Chancellor has to get support is in the budget and that's mostly >the Bundestag that comes into play. With the CDU/CSU coalition having a >commanding majority, Schroeder faces a very stiff challenge in getting the >concessions he wants. Stoiber made it rather clear that he considers >Schroder's economic policies a failure and has called for Germany to >follow the Bavarian model of "laptops and lederhosen". That is, strongly >pro business while hewing to the Eurozone economic policies.
>At present, Germany has twice notified the EU that it expecs to exceed >deficit spending limits of 3.5%, and now expects deficit spending over 5%. > Stoiber wants the line pulled back to 3% deficit spending, and this >suggests less direct economic intervention in protecting large german >industries as well as a reduction in public largesse.
Just to compare and not to stir up the hornets' nest, how high is the US's deficit spending percentagewise? Is that a percentage of GDP?
>> As I understand it, Stoiber won that vote and represented CDU/CSU >> in the election, but eventually lost to the SPD. And where do the >> PDS and the Greens fit into all of this? I know the PDS (former >> Communists) did quite well in the last election, but where did >> they stand in Parliament?
>Stoiber is clearly the winner and the election was a debacle for the SPD >which has already had rumblings of "heads will roll". The Greens have made >some ground while the FDP has fallen back to new lows. Even the Red/Green >coalition of the SPD/Green isn't enough to save them. The Greens single >most popular politician is Joschka Fischer, currently German's foreign >minister. There've been rumor circulating for months that he's planning >on taking the EU Foreign Minister position. If he does that, then there's >little chance Schroeder will survive.
>> And finally, is Markel now representing the CDU/CSU? What about >> Stoiber?
>Merkel leads the CSU, which is the majority partner in the CDU/CSU
Did you mean CDU here?
>coalition, called "The Union". That gives her first crack at forming a >government, once Stoiber becomes President.
Thanks for that, Bill -- I think some of the clouds are clearing in my brain. Whenever I asked one of my German friends/colleagues how the system worked (especially with respect to proportional representation) they begged off, saying that it was too complicated to explain.
On Tue, 23 Sep 2003 20:33:44 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote: > On Mon, 22 Sep 2003 13:02:04 -0400, Bill Diamond > <b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote:
>>On Mon, 22 Sep 2003 06:52:58 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote:
>>> On Sun, 21 Sep 2003 17:01:12 -0400, Bill Diamond >>> <b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote:
>>> Bill, now you've gone and opened a can of worms. You know I lived >>> there for 10 years and in all that time I never quite figured out >>> how the political system works?
>>Dan! Hey, I lived in Bavaria and politics is always a hot topic. One of >>my social acquaintances was the SPD's Bavarian political theoretician. >>Neat guy. Older than dirt, he was but a real gentleman. My most real >>political experience was in 1979 when I wandered into the Governor's >>palace in Munich. An older fellow dressed like a janitor started talking >>with me and showed me around the place. A few days later I saw his >>picture in the paper. It was Franz Josef Strauss, the Minister Governor >>of Bavaria.
> Well, my most real political experience was having dinner at the > Bombay Club in DC and having Bill Clinton come over to our table > to introduce himself. Very charming man, I must, say and very > tall.
You were in my backyard and didn't call. Dan, I'm hurt. This an outrageous attack and I protest. I've lived in DC proper and the DC area for the last twenty something years. So, I've gotten to meet quite a few senators, representatives, and one President so far (Bush 41).
Most politicans are very charming. It's a job requirement. If you listen to what their opponents say, you'd be pretty convinced that everyone who disagrees with you is a goat raping child enslaving transvestite with global hegemonist intent.
.
> I'm totally out of the loop with German politics. I had a 1-year > subscription to the Tagesspiegel am Sonntag, but let that lapse > so now the only thing I hear about German politics is when > Schroeder pays someone a visit or Joschka Fischer speaks to the > UN. I do know that people are getting sick of the SPD -- as I > understand it mostly due to the terrible economy. It started > going downhill in 1994-95 and is still in the dumps.
Let me know and I can start shoveling you my read copies of Der Spiegel, which I get weekly. Dean gets Amerika Woche which is a german Weekly Reader newspaper. Mostly targeted at old people, I have to say.
It's a pity abut the SPD at present. I really admired Helmut Schmidt. He was one of the great intellectual leaders Germany has had in the post-war period, and certainly very farsighted about political and economic development.
>>This comes on the heels of two other state government elections that have >>given the SPD very poor showings. Exactly as you point out, the >>proportional representation means the CSU, along with its CDU coalition >>partner will take a majority in the Bundestag.
> There was a Bundeswahl only last year, I believe, so the next one > shouldn't be for another 3 or 4 years, right? Assuming, of > course, a vote of no confidence isn't called. Hey a recall, > German style! How about Lilo Wanders for Chancellor?
Yep. The SPD eaked out a victory over Stoiber and the Union. Then, the SPD lost the next three state elections, usually by fairly ugly margins. I don't remember the last time a Chancellor was put out by the Bundestag. Brandt resigned, didn't he?
Lilo Wanders. I can see the slogans now "Why settle for one dull boob when you can have two exciting ones instead!" Oy.
> So there was a byelection -- does that mean that the SPD and its > coalition partners no longer hold a majority of the seats in the > Bundestag? And if that's the case shouldn't the coalition with > the most seats appoint a Chancellor?
I thought the Chancellor was elected, but the President is named by the Bundestag? The President can then name a Chancellor should the incumbent resign. In this case, I don't think we need to worry that Schroeder would resign. Rather, I think he'll be sent packing on a no-confidence move. Under German law, it's a lot like the California recall method. Not only does a majority have to agree to remove the Chancellor, the majority must also agree on his or her replacement at the same time.
> I remember seeing quite often on the campaign posters vote for > such-and-such party second vote, or something like that. I know > that you cast two votes, but it's still not quite clear to me how > this works. The second vote is purely for a party, say CDU, then > these votes are tallied and then the parties get a certain > percentage of the candidates in the first vote, based on how many > people voted for them?
Exactly. You have "zwei liste" when you vote. The first is for the candidates, the second is for the party. It's pretty common to push people to vote for one slate of candidates, but then to split the vote so that the party gets a chance at representation under their proportional representation. Technically, a party could have no elected delegates and still get seats if at least 5% of the population voted for the party on the second ballot. I think that's how the FDP got in a few times.
> I knew Schroeder was on his fourth marriage with a Barbie-doll > lookalike, but wasn't aware that they had split and that Fischer > was in the same position, so to speak. I once saw Fischer > speaking in English and he speaks it very very well -- almost no > accent.
Fischer is very popular - in Germany. I don't trust him. He spent too much of his youth with radical groups, including a period where he trained in Iraq with the PLO. People got awfully pissy about Strauss having been a captain in the SS. Amazing they're so quiet about Fischer being part of anti-semitic groups in the 1970s.
> Because of the CDU/CSU coalition, if CDU has the most votes in an > election does this mean Merkel would be president and she would > name Stoiber as Chancellor? I thought it was the other way around > -- the leader of the party with the most votes becomes Chancellor > and he appoints a President.
I think it'll be the other way around. Stoiber will probably be named as President, and he'll get to name Merkel as Chancellor - providing the Bundestag does a no-confidence and agrees with naming Merkel. The majority party generally gets the chancellorship win it wins an outright majority in the parliament. When it's won it early in the term like this, it's a pretty unique instance.
> Just to compare and not to stir up the hornets' nest, how high is > the US's deficit spending percentagewise? Is that a percentage of > GDP?
Man, that odometer's flipping. I think we're currently at 4.5% deficit compared to GDP. In general, the budget model we use is pretty consistent with Eurozone guidance. At least, that's what I read from Alan Greenspan's speeches. The public sector should be financed with no more than around 17.5% of the GDP, deficits at 3.5% or less is the goal. Otherwise, we're going to have that ugly 1970s problem all over again where we were spending about 40% of the federal budget on debt service.
>>Merkel leads the CSU, which is the majority partner in the CDU/CSU
> Did you mean CDU here?
Yes. Even I can't tell the two apart. CDU is everything except Bavaria, CSU is Bavaria. Egads. Merge, already.
>>coalition, called "The Union". That gives her first crack at forming a >>government, once Stoiber becomes President.
> Thanks for that, Bill -- I think some of the clouds are clearing > in my brain. Whenever I asked one of my German friends/colleagues > how the system worked (especially with respect to proportional > representation) they begged off, saying that it was too > complicated to explain.
> Gruss, > Dan
It certainly has some advantages. It does pretty well guarantee that your vote counts and that minority viewpoints have a better chance of being heard than is true here. Their system also doesn't suffer from the winner-takes-all mentality that works in our politics and does force compromise in order to form a stable government.
<b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote: >On Tue, 23 Sep 2003 20:33:44 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote: >> Well, my most real political experience was having dinner at the >> Bombay Club in DC and having Bill Clinton come over to our table >> to introduce himself. Very charming man, I must, say and very >> tall.
>You were in my backyard and didn't call. Dan, I'm hurt. This an >outrageous attack and I protest. I've lived in DC proper and the DC area >for the last twenty something years. So, I've gotten to meet quite a few >senators, representatives, and one President so far (Bush 41).
I'm not sure that we'd "met" at that point -- it was 4 or 5 years ago. I think it was a birthday celebration for Chelsea -- she was there with quite a nice looking young man and Hilary was there as well. As well as many dozens of secret service agents.
Next time I'm in DC, I'll certainly give you a call -- my best friend and roommate from UVa lives just north of DuPont.
>Most politicans are very charming. It's a job requirement. If you listen >to what their opponents say, you'd be pretty convinced that everyone who >disagrees with you is a goat raping child enslaving transvestite with >global hegemonist intent.
I realize most politicians have to be charming, but some of them are more charming than others. I just can't imagine having afternoon tea with Wolfie or Rummy or Cheney, though. Makes me want to break out the rubber gloves.
>> I'm totally out of the loop with German politics. I had a 1-year >> subscription to the Tagesspiegel am Sonntag, but let that lapse >> so now the only thing I hear about German politics is when >> Schroeder pays someone a visit or Joschka Fischer speaks to the >> UN. I do know that people are getting sick of the SPD -- as I >> understand it mostly due to the terrible economy. It started >> going downhill in 1994-95 and is still in the dumps.
>Let me know and I can start shoveling you my read copies of Der Spiegel, >which I get weekly. Dean gets Amerika Woche which is a german Weekly >Reader newspaper. Mostly targeted at old people, I have to say.
Don't worry about it -- I really should make an effort at reading the occasional German journal online or pick up a copy at the newsagent.
>> So there was a byelection -- does that mean that the SPD and its >> coalition partners no longer hold a majority of the seats in the >> Bundestag? And if that's the case shouldn't the coalition with >> the most seats appoint a Chancellor?
>I thought the Chancellor was elected, but the President is named by the >Bundestag? The President can then name a Chancellor should the incumbent >resign. In this case, I don't think we need to worry that Schroeder would >resign. Rather, I think he'll be sent packing on a no-confidence move. >Under German law, it's a lot like the California recall method. Not only >does a majority have to agree to remove the Chancellor, the majority must >also agree on his or her replacement at the same time.
Sure, like X % of the German population has signed a petition to throw Schroeder out. I mean, who *really* decides these things? Is it the Common Man or is it the Elected? In either case I am tempted to say, once elected put up with it, there's always another election. Good God, that's what elections are for.
>> I remember seeing quite often on the campaign posters vote for >> such-and-such party second vote, or something like that. I know >> that you cast two votes, but it's still not quite clear to me how >> this works. The second vote is purely for a party, say CDU, then >> these votes are tallied and then the parties get a certain >> percentage of the candidates in the first vote, based on how many >> people voted for them?
>Exactly. You have "zwei liste" when you vote. The first is for the >candidates, the second is for the party. It's pretty common to push people >to vote for one slate of candidates, but then to split the vote so that >the party gets a chance at representation under their proportional >representation. Technically, a party could have no elected delegates and >still get seats if at least 5% of the population voted for the party on >the second ballot. I think that's how the FDP got in a few times.
That's how I remember it -- the posters pushing the 2nd vote were the more marginal parties. And that makes sense, really, so they could achieve the minimum 5%.
>> I knew Schroeder was on his fourth marriage with a Barbie-doll >> lookalike, but wasn't aware that they had split and that Fischer >> was in the same position, so to speak. I once saw Fischer >> speaking in English and he speaks it very very well -- almost no >> accent.
>Fischer is very popular - in Germany. I don't trust him. He spent too >much of his youth with radical groups, including a period where he trained >in Iraq with the PLO. People got awfully pissy about Strauss having been >a captain in the SS. Amazing they're so quiet about Fischer being >part of anti-semitic groups in the 1970s.
Not long after Schroeder & Co took power the reports of Fischer's past started hitting the airwaves. I hadn't heard about his involvement with Iraq and the PLO, but he was involved with some "radical youth" in the 60s and 70s. For a while it looked like he was going to have to resign, but he somehow managed to survive it.
>>>Merkel leads the CSU, which is the majority partner in the CDU/CSU >> Did you mean CDU here? >Yes. Even I can't tell the two apart. CDU is everything except Bavaria, >CSU is Bavaria. Egads. Merge, already.
I made the same typo earlier -- easy to do given that s and d are neighbors on the keyboard.
[proportional representation]
>It certainly has some advantages. It does pretty well guarantee that your >vote counts and that minority viewpoints have a better chance of being >heard than is true here. Their system also doesn't suffer from the >winner-takes-all mentality that works in our politics and does force >compromise in order to form a stable government.
I promised not to mention the electoral college here, so I won't. But...I do think that the proportional representation system is something worth considering, only because it seems to be fair and that it turns the political system into a set of gray tones rather than a binary black and white.
Dan
PS: Next time I'm in the DC area (hopefully next year), watch out!
On Wed, 24 Sep 2003 06:21:22 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote: > On Tue, 23 Sep 2003 20:00:16 -0400, Bill Diamond > <b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote:
>>On Tue, 23 Sep 2003 20:33:44 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote:
>>> Well, my most real political experience was having dinner at the >>> Bombay Club in DC and having Bill Clinton come over to our table >>> to introduce himself. Very charming man, I must, say and very >>> tall.
>>You were in my backyard and didn't call. Dan, I'm hurt. This an >>outrageous attack and I protest. I've lived in DC proper and the DC area >>for the last twenty something years. So, I've gotten to meet quite a few >>senators, representatives, and one President so far (Bush 41).
> I'm not sure that we'd "met" at that point -- it was 4 or 5 years > ago. I think it was a birthday celebration for Chelsea -- she was > there with quite a nice looking young man and Hilary was there as > well. As well as many dozens of secret service agents.
Chelsea's very well liked in DC - by all accounts, a poised and very gifted young lady.
> Next time I'm in DC, I'll certainly give you a call -- my best > friend and roommate from UVa lives just north of DuPont.
Well,no excuses then. Let me know when you're in town, and we'll invite the Metro DC Chapter of AFCA Irregulars around.
> I realize most politicians have to be charming, but some of them > are more charming than others. I just can't imagine having > afternoon tea with Wolfie or Rummy or Cheney, though. Makes me > want to break out the rubber gloves.
Wolfowitz, well - he's always been one small step between man and Wolfman. Rumsfeld and Cheney are known for being very gregarious. One of our local talk show hosts lives on the same street as both Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld and pointed out that like him, they are also still without power.
As hard as it might be to believe, most of the career types are very good people to hang out with, and despite the impressions that are left, many of them are close friends, regardless of party lines. Some can't leave partisanship behind when they leave the office, though. Those folks are pretty well known around DC.
>>> I'm totally out of the loop with German politics. I had a 1-year >>> subscription to the Tagesspiegel am Sonntag, but let that lapse >>> so now the only thing I hear about German politics is when >>> Schroeder pays someone a visit or Joschka Fischer speaks to the >>> UN. I do know that people are getting sick of the SPD -- as I >>> understand it mostly due to the terrible economy. It started >>> going downhill in 1994-95 and is still in the dumps.
>>Let me know and I can start shoveling you my read copies of Der Spiegel, >>which I get weekly. Dean gets Amerika Woche which is a german Weekly >>Reader newspaper. Mostly targeted at old people, I have to say.
> Don't worry about it -- I really should make an effort at reading > the occasional German journal online or pick up a copy at the > newsagent.
> Sure, like X % of the German population has signed a petition to > throw Schroeder out. I mean, who *really* decides these things? > Is it the Common Man or is it the Elected? In either case I am > tempted to say, once elected put up with it, there's always > another election. Good God, that's what elections are for.
Yeah, I agree. Germany, for rather painful reasons, maintains a trigger-finger on the gun to remove the Chancellor. There system of checks and balances is different than ours, but it seems to ensure so far at least an equal degree of accountability.
> Not long after Schroeder & Co took power the reports of Fischer's > past started hitting the airwaves. I hadn't heard about his > involvement with Iraq and the PLO, but he was involved with some > "radical youth" in the 60s and 70s. For a while it looked like he > was going to have to resign, but he somehow managed to survive > it.
And managed to become the most popular politician in the country. Disgusts me. I just can't believe it. Anyway, he's supposedly going to be named the EU's Foreign Minister sometime soon, so he'll at least be a disgrace to the EU instead of just Germany.
> I promised not to mention the electoral college here, so I won't. > But...I do think that the proportional representation system is > something worth considering, only because it seems to be fair and > that it turns the political system into a set of gray tones > rather than a binary black and white.
> Dan
You know what a reactionary conservative I am, Dan. I find myself more and more inclined towards this system.
> PS: Next time I'm in the DC area (hopefully next year), watch > out!
We'll leave the light on for you. We're conveniently located near three metro stations.
> On Wed, 24 Sep 2003 06:21:22 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote: > > I promised not to mention the electoral college here, so I won't. > > But...I do think that the proportional representation system is > > something worth considering, only because it seems to be fair and > > that it turns the political system into a set of gray tones > > rather than a binary black and white. > You know what a reactionary conservative I am, Dan. I find myself more > and more inclined towards this system.
Favors breeders, but not exactly
-- RM Mentock
Which color goes on first--the chickpea, or the eggplant?
>So, I've gotten to meet quite a few > senators, representatives, and one President so far (Bush 41).
Cool. Did you get to meet Barbara too? (Finally finished Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them, Franken's book. He tells of a close encounter with Barbara, on an airplane, which is very funny. She sounds like everything that we hear about her.)
M C Hamster "Big Wheel Keep on Turnin'" -- Creedence Clearwater Revival
>>So, I've gotten to meet quite a few >> senators, representatives, and one President so far (Bush 41).
>Cool. Did you get to meet Barbara too? (Finally finished Lies and the >Lying Liars Who Tell Them, Franken's book. He tells of a close encounter >with Barbara, on an airplane, which is very funny. She sounds like >everything that we hear about her.)
>M C Hamster "Big Wheel Keep on Turnin'" -- Creedence Clearwater Revival
I always wondered what kind of political influence George 1 had, to get his wife's portrait on the $1.00 bill.
>>So, I've gotten to meet quite a few >> senators, representatives, and one President so far (Bush 41).
> Cool. Did you get to meet Barbara too? (Finally finished Lies and the > Lying Liars Who Tell Them, Franken's book. He tells of a close encounter > with Barbara, on an airplane, which is very funny. She sounds like > everything that we hear about her.)
She's much more than people realize She's actually very petite and photographs like a plump woman. She's ... she's a fireball. I did campaign stuff with them in 1988. She rode on the campaign bus instead of the limousine and entertained us with very off-color stories about their marriage and life in Texas.
Picture Ann Richards telling dirty jokes. That's Bar Bush.
> >>So, I've gotten to meet quite a few > >> senators, representatives, and one President so far (Bush 41).
> > Cool. Did you get to meet Barbara too? (Finally finished Lies and the > > Lying Liars Who Tell Them, Franken's book. He tells of a close encounter > > with Barbara, on an airplane, which is very funny. She sounds like > > everything that we hear about her.)
> She's much more than people realize She's actually very petite and > photographs like a plump woman. She's ... she's a fireball. I did > campaign stuff with them in 1988. She rode on the campaign bus instead of > the limousine and entertained us with very off-color stories about their > marriage and life in Texas.
> Picture Ann Richards telling dirty jokes. That's Bar Bush.
In the Franken book, he was having a pleasant conversation with her on the airplane until he made a little jokey comment implying that he hoped Gore would win the 2000 election. She immediately glowered, and told him, "I'm done with you", and that was that. Every attempt he made to re-engage brought her harumphing "I'm done with you". The humor involves the various ways he tried to re-engage, occasionally finding a topic that she'd light up to for a moment, but then, almost immediately, back to "I'm done with you".
So I guess you have to be a Republican before she'll tell you the fun stories. Or talk to you for that matter.
M C Hamster "Big Wheel Keep on Turnin'" -- Creedence Clearwater Revival
On Wed, 24 Sep 2003 16:45:24 -0500, M C Hamster wrote: > In the Franken book, he was having a pleasant conversation with her on the > airplane until he made a little jokey comment implying that he hoped Gore > would win the 2000 election. She immediately glowered, and told him, "I'm > done with you", and that was that. Every attempt he made to re-engage > brought her harumphing "I'm done with you". The humor involves the various > ways he tried to re-engage, occasionally finding a topic that she'd light up > to for a moment, but then, almost immediately, back to "I'm done with you".
> So I guess you have to be a Republican before she'll tell you the fun > stories. Or talk to you for that matter.
She's very, very protective of her family. If she thinks you've threatened or insulted them - you are dead to her, begone.
<b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote: >On Wed, 24 Sep 2003 06:21:22 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote: >> I realize most politicians have to be charming, but some of them >> are more charming than others. I just can't imagine having >> afternoon tea with Wolfie or Rummy or Cheney, though. Makes me >> want to break out the rubber gloves.
>Wolfowitz, well - he's always been one small step between man and Wolfman. >Rumsfeld and Cheney are known for being very gregarious. One of our local >talk show hosts lives on the same street as both Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld >and pointed out that like him, they are also still without power.
Whenever Rumsfeld shows up on Lehrer's News Hour I'm tempted to grab the remote. I absolutely loathe the way he talks down to people, and Doonesbury has really hit it on the head recently, with his posing questions to himself then answering them.
>> Not long after Schroeder & Co took power the reports of Fischer's >> past started hitting the airwaves. I hadn't heard about his >> involvement with Iraq and the PLO, but he was involved with some >> "radical youth" in the 60s and 70s. For a while it looked like he >> was going to have to resign, but he somehow managed to survive >> it.
>And managed to become the most popular politician in the country. >Disgusts me. I just can't believe it. Anyway, he's supposedly going to >be named the EU's Foreign Minister sometime soon, so he'll at least be a >disgrace to the EU instead of just Germany.
At what point do you let such "youthful indiscretions" go? A lot of things I did was I was 19 or 20 have very little to do with the person I am now.
I always enjoy hearing Fischer speak, though he does look a little like a granny tranny, especially with those little glasses perched on the end of his nose.
>> I promised not to mention the electoral college here, so I won't. >> But...I do think that the proportional representation system is >> something worth considering, only because it seems to be fair and >> that it turns the political system into a set of gray tones >> rather than a binary black and white.
>> Dan
>You know what a reactionary conservative I am, Dan. I find myself more >and more inclined towards this system.
It just makes sense and seems more fair than what we have here.
On Thu, 25 Sep 2003 17:45:29 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote: > On Wed, 24 Sep 2003 11:29:06 -0400, Bill Diamond > <b...@linux.billdiamond.com> wrote:
>>On Wed, 24 Sep 2003 06:21:22 +0000, Daniel Bush wrote:
>>> I realize most politicians have to be charming, but some of them >>> are more charming than others. I just can't imagine having >>> afternoon tea with Wolfie or Rummy or Cheney, though. Makes me >>> want to break out the rubber gloves.
>>Wolfowitz, well - he's always been one small step between man and Wolfman. >>Rumsfeld and Cheney are known for being very gregarious. One of our local >>talk show hosts lives on the same street as both Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld >>and pointed out that like him, they are also still without power.
> Whenever Rumsfeld shows up on Lehrer's News Hour I'm tempted to > grab the remote. I absolutely loathe the way he talks down to > people, and Doonesbury has really hit it on the head recently, > with his posing questions to himself then answering them.
Oh, well .. that's not nothing new with Rummy. He mastered the fine art of peering over his glasses at people when he was an Asst. Sec. Def back int he 1970s. He has never suffered fools - not his own party, not the other's and certainly not the media.
On the flip side, if he respects you - he's very warm and garrulous. Not in the gimme-a-hug sort of way, but courteous. A lot of defense technology people get routinely kicked out of his office, doing a great impression of Tigger as they bounce on their asses down the hallway.
>>> Not long after Schroeder & Co took power the reports of Fischer's >>> past started hitting the airwaves. I hadn't heard about his >>> involvement with Iraq and the PLO, but he was involved with some >>> "radical youth" in the 60s and 70s. For a while it looked like he >>> was going to have to resign, but he somehow managed to survive >>> it.
>>And managed to become the most popular politician in the country. >>Disgusts me. I just can't believe it. Anyway, he's supposedly going to >>be named the EU's Foreign Minister sometime soon, so he'll at least be a >>disgrace to the EU instead of just Germany.
> At what point do you let such "youthful indiscretions" go? A lot > of things I did was I was 19 or 20 have very little to do with > the person I am now.
There's not a fine line that I see between youthful indiscretions and terrorism. This is a man who trained to blow up movie theaters, hijack airplanes and plant bombs that would kill civilians. There's no letting go of that.
> I always enjoy hearing Fischer speak, though he does look a > little like a granny tranny, especially with those little glasses > perched on the end of his nose.
Ouch. I wouldn't expect him to call you for fashion advice after that.
>>> I promised not to mention the electoral college here, so I won't. >>> But...I do think that the proportional representation system is >>> something worth considering, only because it seems to be fair and >>> that it turns the political system into a set of gray tones >>> rather than a binary black and white.
>>> Dan
>>You know what a reactionary conservative I am, Dan. I find myself more >>and more inclined towards this system.
> It just makes sense and seems more fair than what we have here.
> Dan
We're agreeing again. How are we supposed to have diatribes if you won't stop being so damned reasonable?
