POA Poll: Rasmussen comments on DUI
Bill Nalty
PORTRAIT OF AMERICA
November 3, 2000
Presidential Tracking Poll
With four days remaining in the campaign, Rasmussen Research surveys for
Portrait of America (POA) find Texas Governor George W. Bush leads Vice
President Al Gore, 46% to 43%. This is the smallest lead for Bush since
the first Presidential Debate. Much like polling data released the
morning after the Debates, these results do not reflect any impact of
the breaking news story about George W. Bush’s 1976 arrest for driving
under the influence of alcohol. These numbers do not reflect a general
tightening of the race.
In the Electoral College, Portrait of America's survey shows Bush
leading in states with 231 Electoral Votes. Gore is leading in states
with 168 Electoral Votes. Bush needs to win just 39 of the 139 toss-up
votes to reach the magic number of 270. Al Gore needs to win 102 of
those 139 toss-up votes.
Gore's gains in our tracking poll are the result of a very strong night
for the Vice President on Tuesday night. Our last two nights of polling
(Wednesday and Thursday) show Governor Bush leading 47.4% to 41.8%. That
5.6% margin in favor of Bush is virtually identical to the 5.5% margin
in our six day tracking average. Rasmussen Research’s assessment of the
race remains unchanged.
At least through Thursday night, Bush held a solid lead in the race for
the White House. This is true in both the popular vote and the Electoral
College. Barring something dramatic to shake up the race, Bush will be
elected President next Tuesday. At this point, it is too early to tell
whether or not the allegations about Bush's arrest for will be
significant enough to make Al Gore the next President.
While virtually every political junkie in the nation has an opinion
about this, Rasmussen Research won't really know the public reaction
until more telephone surveys are completed.
Rasmussen Research will be conducting a special Friday night Portrait of
America telephone survey to give an early indication on the impact or
lack of impact generated by the story about Bush’s 24-year old DUI
arrest.
These results from Friday night will be clues, rather than definitive
answers because Friday nights are not considered optimum polling times,
and because it may take several days before the full impact of this
story is known. Results of the Friday night survey will be posted on the
Portrait of America web site.
POA demographic data shows 50% of government employees support Al Gore,
while only 39% in the private sector support him. George W. Bush is
supported by 50% of private sector workers, only 38% of government
employees support Bush.
Rasmussen Research will begin tracking the approval rating and key
political issues of the new administration as soon as the elections are
over. The next President will be the first in history to have public
reaction to his policies and popularity polled every day he is in
office.
Rasmussen Research has been collecting daily information on the
attitudes of investors, consumers, and the workforce about the economy
and financial markets. As soon as the elections are over, this data will
be available on the Portrait of America website.
The telephone survey of 3,000 likely voters was conducted on Tuesday,
Wednesday and Thursday, October 31, November 1, and 2, 2000. The
survey’s margin of sampling error is +/- 1.8 percentage points with a
95% level of confidence.
Presidential Tracking Poll
Survey Dates Bush Gore
October 31, Nov 1, 2 46 43
October 30, 31, Nov 1 47 42
October 29, 30, 31 47 41
October 28, 29, 30 47 40
October 26, 28, 29 47 41
October 25, 26, 28 46 42
October 24, 25, 26 46 42
October 23, 24, 25 47 40
October 22, 23, 24 47 41
October 21, 22, 23 47 41
October 19, 21, 22 47 41
October 18, 19, 21 46 41
October 17, 18, 19 46 41
October 16, 17, 18 45 41
October 15, 16, 17 47 40
###