September Tied for Second Warmest on the 128-year NASA Global Land Record!
Roger Coppock
Record!
Lately, fossil fools fondly repeat a lie about global warming
slowing down. "Global warming ended in 1998," they say. The
truth is published here every month in this section of these
reports:
The month of July in the year 2007,
is linearly projected to be 14.397,
yet it was 14.57. <- Above projected.
Using the line of regression, the temperature is projected.
If global warming reversed, the actual measured temperatures
would have to fall below the line of regression temperature,
and do so for a year or more. So far this has not happened,
not for even two months in a row.
Measured temperatures which are nearly always above projected
temperatures mean that the temperature rise is accelerating.
This is simple geometry. Each above the line measured global
temperature raises the slope of the regression line when that
new point joins the data. This pattern is now 5 decades old.
Please see:
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/Slope1952-2006.jpg
Clearly therefore, the fossil fools lie, and global mean
surface temperatures continue to rise.
These globally averaged temperature data come from NASA:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt
They represent the results of tens of millions of readings
taken at thousands of stations covering all the lands of the
Earth over the last 128 years. Yes, the data are corrected
for the urban heat island effect.
The Mean September temperature over the last 128 years is 14.025 C.
The Variance is 0.07302.
The Standard Deviation, or SIGMA, is 0.2702.
Rxy 0.6986 Rxy^2 0.4881
TEMP = 13.695298 + (0.005109 * (YEAR-1879))
Degrees of Freedom = 126 F = 120.137025
Confidence of nonzero correlation = approximately
0.9999999999999999999 (19 nines)
The month of September in the year 2007,
is linearly projected to be 14.349,
yet it was 14.71. <-- 1.3 SIGMA above projection
The sum of the residuals is 19.62562
Equal weight exponential least squares fit:
TEMP = 13.698815 * e^(.0003647 * (YEAR-1879))
The sum of the residuals is 19.57803
Rank of the months of September
Year Temp C Anomaly Z score
2005 14.86 0.835 3.09
2007 14.71 0.685 2.54 <--
2003 14.71 0.685 2.54
2006 14.66 0.635 2.35
2002 14.62 0.595 2.20
2001 14.58 0.555 2.05
2004 14.53 0.505 1.87
1991 14.50 0.475 1.76
1983 14.49 0.465 1.72
1998 14.48 0.455 1.68
1999 14.43 0.405 1.50
1989 14.43 0.405 1.50
1994 14.42 0.395 1.46
MEAN 14.025 0.000 0.00
1907 13.71 -0.315 -1.17
1917 13.70 -0.325 -1.20
1883 13.70 -0.325 -1.20
1935 13.69 -0.335 -1.24
1888 13.67 -0.355 -1.31
1964 13.61 -0.415 -1.54
1903 13.60 -0.425 -1.57
1902 13.60 -0.425 -1.57
1904 13.59 -0.435 -1.61
1892 13.58 -0.445 -1.65
1912 13.56 -0.465 -1.72
1891 13.52 -0.505 -1.87
1887 13.51 -0.515 -1.91
1894 13.47 -0.555 -2.05
The most recent 178 continuous months, or 14 years and 10 months,
on this GLB.Ts.txt data set are all above the 1951-1980
data set norm of 14 C.
There are 1533 months of data on this data set:
-- 744 of them are at or above the norm.
-- 789 of them are below the norm.
This run of 178 months above the norm is the result of a warming
world. It is too large to occur by chance at any reasonable level
of confidence. A major volcano eruption, thermonuclear war, or
meteor impact could stop this warming trend for a couple of years,
otherwise expect it to continue.
Paul E. Lehmann
Roger thinks climate change is contrained to
warming and does not like to consider the
negatives of what have happened and or could
happen from COOLING.
He claims posts on the adverse effects of cooling
are "Off Topic" He also likes to put all is
faith in Models and Ridicules the historic record
of a civilization that has collected and recorded
climatic conditions for centuries.
Roger and other AGWers should consider the
following:
If the AGWers want something new to worry about,
they can worry about Global Cooling instead - or
also.
Following is an article by Josie Glausiusz which
appears in the October, 2007 issue of "Discover
Magazine"
"A COLD LOOK AT WAR
THE STUDY "Climate Change and War Frequency in
Eastern China Over the Last Millennium," by David
Zhang et al., published in the August 2007 issue
of Human Ecology.
THE MOTIVE In a study of more than 900 years of
conflict in eastern China, a team of researchers
has tested the hypothesis that cold spells fuel
the social instability that leads to war.
THE METHODS Earth scientist David Zhang of the
University of Hong Kong and his colleagues
consulted a multivolume compendium, "The
Tabulation of Wars in Ancient China", which
records wars in China between 800 B.C. and A.D.
1911. They focused on the 899 wars that took
place between the years 1000 and 1911 in densely
populated eastern China.
The researchers then compared the historical
record with climate data for the same period. In
the past decade, paleoclimatologists have
reconstructed a record of climate change over the
millennium by consulting historical documents and
examining indicators of temperature change like
tree rings, as well as oxygen isotopes in ice
cores and coral skeletons. By combining data
from multiple studies, Zhang and his colleagues
identified six major cycles of warm and cold
phases from 1000 to 1911. The team then tabulated
the frequency of wars and grouped them into three
classes: very high (more than 30 wars per
decade), high (15 to 30 wars per decade), and low
(fewer than 15 wars per decade.) All four
decades of "very high" warfare, as well as most
periods of "high" conflict, coincided with cold
phases. The link was most pronounced in the
south, perhaps because of its greater population
density as well as southern migration due to the
cold.
Two especially frigid periods (1448-1487) and
(1583-1717) stand out. During the first period,
many regions of china suffered huge famines, and
authorities of the Ming dynasty quashed
rebellions in numerous provinces. At the
beginning of the second cold era, heavy rains and
sever floods devastated agricultural production,
and during the subsequent famine people were
forced to eat tree bark and even seeds from the
excrement of wild geese. Later, between 1620 and
1640, earth's temperature fell to its lowest
point since the beginning of the millennium. In
china, major floods followed extreme droughts, and
frequent famines led to mass starvation and
death. In 1644, a peasand rebel leader marched
into the capital and captured Beijing, Finally,
a Manchu invasion ended the Ming regime.
THE MEANING During warm periods, Zhang explains,
populations increased, but the conditions brought
on by cold phases--shorter growing seasons, less
land available for cultivation, a shortage of
forage for domestic animals, and lower
agriculture yields--could not sustain them. The
shortages fueled peasant unrest, which
destabilized regimes. Nearly all China's
dynastic changes too place during the cold
spells.
Zhang believes his work has relevance for a
warming world. Global temperatures are expected
to rise faster and faster in the future, and our
expanded population may be unable to adapt to the
ecological changes. "Animals can adapt to
climate change, mainly by relying on migration,
depopulation--which consists of starvation and
cannibalism--and dietary change," he explains.
"Human beings have more adaptive choices and
social mechanisms, such as birth control, trade,
and scientific innovation. Some of these social
mechanisms are good for humanity and some are
bad, such as war. The war is just like the
cannibalism of animals." "
Roger Coppock
piece many times now. Like the autistic boy who
responds, "applesauce," to every question asked
him, Paul is not smart enough to be original and
on topic.
On Oct 11, 9:40 am, "Paul E. Lehmann" <some...@anywhere.com> wrote:
> "A COLD LOOK AT WAR
> THE STUDY "Climate Change and War Frequency in
> Eastern China Over the Last Millennium," by David
The topic of this thread is:
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/Slope1952-2006.jpg
Tunderbar
Every time you make a single datapoint argument to "prove" a global
phenomenon, you expose your sorry ass to the wind.
Bawana
> September Tied for Second Warmest on the 128-year NASA Global Land
> Record!
>
> Lately, fossil fools fondly repeat a lie about global warming
> slowing down. "Global warming ended in 1998," they say. The
> truth is published here every month in this section of these
> reports:
>
> The month of July in the year 2007,
> is linearly projected to be 14.397,
> yet it was 14.57. <- Above projected.
Only co2agw, no solution but oppressive government and more taxes, lib-
tards take pride in failed projections.
Get the pus drained, ya worthless scientist.
Maybe then you can produce something of value.
> [...]
Roger Coppock
No sir, it is not a single data point argument.
Tunderbar
>
> - Show quoted text -
If it isn't the warmest year, you resort to the warmest month. If that
doesn't work out what will it be? The warmest two weeks? The warmest
couple of consecutive days?
Altogether too frikkin' pathetic.
Roger Coppock
[ . . . ]
> If it isn't the warmest year, you resort to the warmest month.
I've been giving these monthly reports with
yearly summaries for years now. They most
definitely aren't single point arguments.
Nor are any data cherry picked.
> If that
> doesn't work out what will it be? The warmest two weeks?
> The warmest couple of consecutive days?
Consult a fossil fool for this.
They even post single location single day data.
>
> Altogether too frikkin' pathetic.
It must be very frustrating to see that all
the data are stacked against you, Dunderbar.
HangEveryRepubliKKKan
"Bawana" <mrbaw...@yahoo.com> wrote
> Only co2agw, no solution but oppressive government and more taxes,
Zero emissions needed to avert 'dangerous' warming
16:56 11 October 2007
NewScientist.com news service
Catherine Brahic
Only the total elimination of industrial emissions will succeed in limiting
climate change to a 2°C rise in temperatures, according to computer analysis
of climate change. Anything above this target has been identified as
"dangerous" by some scientists, and the limit has been adopted by many
policymakers.
The researchers say their study highlights the shortcomings of governmental
plans to limit climate change.
A warming of 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures is frequently cited as
the limit beyond which the world will face "dangerous" climate change.
Beyond this level, analysis suggests the continents will cease to absorb
more carbon dioxide than they produce. As the tundra and other regions of
permafrost thaw, they will spew more gas into the atmosphere, adding to the
warming effect of human emissions.
The end result will be dramatic ecological changes, including widespread
coastal flooding, reduced food production, and widespread species
extinction.
mike3
Insults don't help anything, and that applies to
BOTH of you.
HangEveryRepubliKKKan
"Tunderbar" <tdco...@gmail.com> wrote
> Every time you make a single datapoint argument to "prove" a global
> phenomenon, you expose your sorry ass to the wind.
Looks to me like there are 27 data points up there Tunderbar.
Have you forgotten how to count?
I'm laughing so hard, KDthrge almost shit his pants.
HangEveryRepubliKKKan
"Tunderbar" <tdco...@gmail.com> wrote
> If it isn't the warmest year, you resort to the warmest month. If that
> doesn't work out what will it be? The warmest two weeks? The warmest
> couple of consecutive days?
We seem to be having a large number of warmest or near warmest years of
late. At least two decades of them in fact.
Here is the last 9 years
1998 14.57 *********************o*****
1999 14.33 *****************>>>>o
2000 14.33 *****************>>>>>o
2001 14.48 ************************o
2002 14.56 *************************o**
2003 14.55 **************************o*
2004 14.49 *************************>>o
2005 14.63 *****************************o**
2006 14.54 ***************************>>>o
Quite odd. And I'm told that 2007 is another record.