Texas fires probably due to global warming
Roger Coppock
Randy Lee Loftis, Sun Apr 24 2011, thespec.com
DALLAS Texas horizons have been red lately, but not from great
sunsets.
Wildfires have burned roughly 400,000 hectares and destroyed nearly
200 homes this year during one of the state’s worst droughts and
through its driest March.
The manifold Texas calamities take on an apocalyptic, Mad Max quality,
with exhausted firefighters attacking flames taller than they are and
whole towns on alert for evacuation.
Scientists say the immediate cause is a La Nina, a recurring, months-
long pattern that blocks Texas’s normal rains.
But are the drought and fires also linked to climate change?
Climate scientists say that question, though common whenever extreme
weather arrives, is both unanswerable and misdirected.
“By now, most people get that you can’t attribute any single weather
event on global warming,” said John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state
climatologist and a professor at Texas A&M University.
Short-term weather, even over months, is too variable to show a trend.
Track weather decades, however, and trends emerge, but not always the
ones people expect.
[ . . . ]
http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/521512--texas-fires-probably-due-to-global-warming
k...@kymhorsell.com
> Texas fires probably due to global warming
>
> Randy Lee Loftis, Sun Apr 24 2011, thespec.com
>
>
> DALLAS Texas horizons have been red lately, but not from great
> sunsets.
>
> Wildfires have burned roughly 400,000 hectares and destroyed nearly
> through its driest March.
>
> The manifold Texas calamities take on an apocalyptic, Mad Max quality,
> with exhausted firefighters attacking flames taller than they are and
> whole towns on alert for evacuation.
>
> Scientists say the immediate cause is a La Nina, a recurring, months-
>
> But are the drought and fires also linked to climate change?
Well that depends on whether there are long-term trends in El Nino/La Nina
(aka ENSO -- related to ocean surface temps in approx the tropical E Pacific).
Looking through the data 1950-2010 there are some statistically
significant trends. E.g. the annual variation from min to max ENSO
has been increasing over time. Since ENSO is related to rainfall
in some places, this indicates more severe dry and wet periods over time.
While the ENSO min shows no trend, the annual max (warm surface waters
aka El Nino) has been increasing over time. AKA more precipitation some places
and, presumably, more fish die-offs off Peru &ct due to decrease in
nutrient-rich ocean upwellings.
--
[Call me kook:]
>A scientist cites a data point that is consistent with a trend and
>says "This data is consistent with the trend; no surprise".
>A kook cites a data point inconsistent with the trend and says "Surprise!
>The trend is Wrong Wrong Wrong!".
...
Sorry but 1917 invalidates the trend.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 7 Feb 2011 13:29 +1100
matt_sykes
Odly the actual text of the piece says the very opposite:
Earl Evleth
f99f2ac6-1a78-4015...@dr5g2000vbb.googlegroups.com,
"matt_sykes" <zze...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> "Climate scientists say that question, though common whenever extreme
> weather arrives, is both unanswerable and misdirected. "
Reference?
`
Global warming and dimished rainfall in the American south has
been proposed for some time. But usually La Nina is invoked.
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Fires-and-Drought-Trouble-Texas-and-
Other-US-Plains-States-119664589.html
Texas State Climatologist and Texas A & M University Atmospheric Scientist
John Nielsen-Gammon says the conditions that normally bring danger to far
west Texas are now present in many other parts of the Lone Star State.
"March was the driest month on record for the state and springtime is when
we get the strongest winds. So everything is coming together to make for
extreme fire danger for Texas this year," he said.
"Most of the droughts that we receive occur during a La Nina event, when
equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures are colder than normal, and that keeps
the jet stream farther north and the storms away. But a lot of it is just
the randomness of the weather and where the storm tracks end up setting up.
Since the beginning of October, in fact, we have been getting one dry month
after another," he said.
The Texas state climatologist says global warming might also play a role in
that overall temperatures in the summer months in Texas have been trending
higher during the past few decades.
***
Since this is a record drought naturelly "global warming" enters the
equation. Sort ot a double whammy effect.
Dawlish
>
> "matt_sykes" <zzeb...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > "Climate scientists say that question, though common whenever extreme
> > weather arrives, is both unanswerable and misdirected. "
>
> Reference?
> `
> Global warming and dimished rainfall in the American south has
> Other-US-Plains-States-119664589.html
>
> Texas State Climatologist and Texas A & M University Atmospheric Scientist
> John Nielsen-Gammon says the conditions that normally bring danger to far
> west Texas are now present in many other parts of the Lone Star State.
>
> "March was the driest month on record for the state and springtime is when
> we get the strongest winds. So everything is coming together to make for
> extreme fire danger for Texas this year," he said.
>
> "Most of the droughts that we receive occur during a La Nina event, when
> equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures are colder than normal, and that keeps
> the jet stream farther north and the storms away. But a lot of it is just
> the randomness of the weather and where the storm tracks end up setting up.
> Since the beginning of October, in fact, we have been getting one dry month
> after another," he said.
>
> The Texas state climatologist says global warming might also play a role in
> that overall temperatures in the summer months in Texas have been trending
> higher during the past few decades.
>
> ***
> Since this is a record drought naturelly "global warming" enters the
Possibly. However I agree with the majority of climate scientists on
this one, when they say that it is not possible, yet, to link
particular weather events to global warming. In 50 years time,
hindsight may show I'm wrong on this one, but for the time being, I'll
say there is no clear link. At least Roger has the intelligence to
include that uncertainty in his post; unlike the stupid deniers, who
tumble head-first into the weather trap at the slightest hint of
cooler weather somewhere, anywhere, on the earth's surface.
Giga2
"Roger Coppock" <rcop...@adnc.com> wrote in message
news:ee4f2ed9-a2a6-4cda...@f15g2000pro.googlegroups.com...
Texas fires probably due to global warming
"Climate scientists say that question, though common whenever extreme
weather arrives, is both unanswerable and misdirected."
Yep.
Tom P
> In sci.skeptic Roger Coppock<rcop...@adnc.com> wrote:
>> Texas fires probably due to global warming
>>
>> Randy Lee Loftis, Sun Apr 24 2011, thespec.com
>>
>>
>> DALLAS Texas horizons have been red lately, but not from great
>> sunsets.
>>
>> Wildfires have burned roughly 400,000 hectares and destroyed nearly
>> 200 homes this year during one of the state?s worst droughts and
>> through its driest March.
>>
>> The manifold Texas calamities take on an apocalyptic, Mad Max quality,
>> with exhausted firefighters attacking flames taller than they are and
>> whole towns on alert for evacuation.
>>
>> Scientists say the immediate cause is a La Nina, a recurring, months-
>> long pattern that blocks Texas?s normal rains.
>>
>> But are the drought and fires also linked to climate change?
>
> Well that depends on whether there are long-term trends in El Nino/La Nina
> (aka ENSO -- related to ocean surface temps in approx the tropical E Pacific).
>
> Looking through the data 1950-2010 there are some statistically
> significant trends. E.g. the annual variation from min to max ENSO
> has been increasing over time. Since ENSO is related to rainfall
> in some places, this indicates more severe dry and wet periods over time.
>
> While the ENSO min shows no trend, the annual max (warm surface waters
> aka El Nino) has been increasing over time. AKA more precipitation some places
> nutrient-rich ocean upwellings.
>
That makes sense in that the expected effect of GW is the relative
warming of the surface ocean layers while the deep ocean remains
unchanged, at least in the short term. Given that El Nino/La Nina is the
alternate upwelling of cold deep ocean water and warm surface water, we
can expect the weather changes from year to year to become more extreme.
Catoni
>"Oh, I missed Chicago being the globe. When did this momentous thing
>happen?" - erschroedinger, Apr. 20, 3:52 p.m.
Oh, I missed Texas being the globe. When did this momentous thing
happen?
LOL... ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha
Catoni
"Texas fires probably due to global warming"
Dawlish.... what does "probably" mean ? ? LOL
Earl Evleth
720ee3f8-bf88-4aed...@z31g2000vbs.googlegroups.com, "Catoni"
<cato...@sympatico.ca> wrote:
> I missed Texas being the globe.
You have to be Texan to hold that view. Americans think the
USA is the center of the Universe while the French know
it is actually Paris.
Dawlish
You could start by reading the article, instead of the OP headline,
but then you wouldn't see what you'd like to think was contained
within it, would you?
Catoni
Uhmmm Dawlish, are you trying to defend comrade Roger?
You stated: "However I agree with the majority of climate
scientists on
this one, when they say that it is not possible, yet, to link
particular weather events to global warming. In 50 years time,
hindsight may show I'm wrong on this one, but for the time being,
I'll
say there is no clear link. At least Roger has the intelligence to
include that uncertainty in his post; unlike the stupid deniers, who
tumble head-first into the weather trap at the slightest hint of
cooler weather somewhere, anywhere, on the earth's surface."
... But then why don't you take a look at his OP title.... ? ? ?
"Texas fires probably due to global warming"
Dawlish, in case you couldn't figure it out, Roger was not the
author of the article itself. So I really don't know why you are
defending him with your statement, ..." ...it is not possible, yet, to
link particular weather events to global warming. I'll say there is no
clear link.At least Roger has the intelligence to include that
uncertainty in his post;..."
Dawlish.... the post title, and the very first line of his post...
"Texas fires probably due to global warming" are his words... and
his words alone. So why are you defending him ? ? ?
Again... another question... what does the word "probably"
mean ? ?
Do you deny...(ha, ha, ha... Denier) that Roger is trying to make
a connection between the Texas fires and Global Warming ? ?
Please hurry back with your answers. We'll wait right here.
Peter Franks
> Texas fires probably due to global warming
Mentally-challenged conclusion. From your own quoted article:
"But are the drought and fires also linked to climate change?
"Climate scientists say that question, though common whenever extreme
weather arrives, is both unanswerable and misdirected.
Fire is a natural occurrence.
It is funny how whenever anyone quotes a localized occurrence (weather
related or not), Coppock and Co. start screaming that 'xxx isn't global
climate'; yet Coppock and Co. have no issue at all using local
occurrences to bolster their bogus agenda. Propaganda at its finest.
Manan
"Roger Coppock" <rcop...@adnc.com> wrote in message
news:ee4f2ed9-a2a6-4cda...@f15g2000pro.googlegroups.com...
> Texas fires probably due to global warming
> http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/521512--texas-fires-probably-due-to-global-warming
No it's Not!
http://www.texasescapes.com/MikeCoxTexasTales/Prairie-Fires.htm
tunderbar
Roger hits a new low. So much for science, eh?
Desertphile
<rcop...@adnc.com> wrote:
> Texas fires probably due to global warming
No. That's a crock of shit. The fires are probably due to stupid
shits with camp fires and cigarettes. Global warming only
exacerbated the problem--- it didn't strike the matches.
--
http://desertphile.org
Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water
"Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz
James
news:C9DAEC40.1EB7BC%evl...@wanadoo.fr
It's weather and has nothing to do with climate.
Dawlish
>
> - Show quoted text -
I feel that the title should be different*. I don't like climate
alarmism and I've said so many times, criticising climate alarmists
where necessary. Roger has never been a climate alarmist, but this
title is probably wrong, given our knowledge at the moment - I may be
proved wrong about that in the future. What Roger has included in his
post is correct, but I've aletered the title to something that is more
mainstream. I hope Roger feels that is fair.
* I also think that you, catoni, are terminally stupid to believe the
ridiculous climate denial that you do.
Dawlish
Read the article, frankie. It doesn't appear to say anything about GW
starting 30 years ago, however <laughing>.
Dawlish
>
> - Show quoted text -
No tundy, so much for deniers' understanding eh?
Dawlish
>
> - Show quoted text -
A small change in the title seems to have shut them up.