john;
are you telling us that you have read all 4 of penn jones' editions of
"forgive my grief? ? ?
John McAdams <
john.m...@marquette.edu> wrote:
> On 17 May 2013 14:08:03 -0400,
richard...@comcast.net wrote:
>
> >
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/05/15/jfk-witness-deaths-calcul
> >ating-the-probabilities/
> >
> >We must distinguish between unnatural and natural deaths. The failed to
> >do so. In its attempt to dismiss the London Sunday Times actuary�s 100,
> >000 TRILLION to 1 odds of 18 witness deaths in three years after the
> >assassination, the HSCA made the following fundamental errors:
> >
>
> Are you even aware that the SUNDAY TIMES *admitted* that the analysis
> was nonsense?
>
> >1) considered just 21 of 46 suspicious deaths from Nov 1963-Feb 1967,
> >avoiding Oswald, Ruby, Ferrie, etc.
> >
> >2) did not specify that the deaths were UNNATURAL
> >
>
> About half were perfectly natural.
>
> >3) did not consider witness CONNECTIONS to the case and MOTIVATION for
> >their elimination
> >
>
> The connection was absurdly tenuous in virtually every case.
>
> >4) ignored the need to utilize UNNATURAL MORTALITY RATES
> >
> >5) falsely stated that the UNIVERSE of witnesses was UNKNOWABLE
> >
>
> Huh?
>
> Kindly specify what the universe of witnesses was?
>
> Give us a number!
>
> >6) ignored the KNOWN UNIVERSE of 552 Warren Commission witnesses:14
> >unnatural, 10 suspicious deaths
> >
> >7) ignored the SUSPICIOUS deaths in 1977 of 7 top FBI officials called
> >to testify at HSCA
> >
>
> Nonsense. There were no "7 top FBI officials" called.
>
> If you think so, name them.
>
> >8) did not question why no one at the London Times knew the actuary's
> >name
> >
>
> They probably did, but wanted to spare him embarrassment.
>
> >9) failed to show the actuary's ASSUMPTIONS and calculation METHOD
> >
>
> How could they, when the SUNDAY TIMES failed to publish them?
>
> >10) did not consider using the POISSON distribution function to
> >calculate probabilities
> >
>
> They could not calculate probabilities without knowing the universe of
> "connected" people.
>
> >The HSCA succeeded in misinforming the public by inferring that the
> >actuary�s odds were not proof of a conspiracy.
> >
>
> But the actuary's "odds" were not proof of anything. They told him to
> calculate the probability of 17 named people dying.
>
> They did *not* tell him to calculate the probability of 17 out of a
> thousand (ot ten thousand) people dying.
>
> >The key to calculating the probability of a given number (n) of
> >unnatural deaths occurring in a given group (N) in a given time period
> >(T) is to recognize that it is based on the difference between
> ><em>expected and actual unnatural deaths</em>. The larger the
> >discrepancy between the actual observed and expected number of deaths,
> >the lower the probability.
> >
> >These are the relevant probability input parameters:
> >N= total number of witnesses
> >n= number of observed unnatural deaths
> >T= time period in years
> >R= unnatural mortality rate
> >
> >The tables in the JFK Witness Spreadsheet Database display unnatural
> >death probabilities for 552 Warren Commission and 1400 material
> >witnesses based on unnatural, weighted and homicide mortality rates over
> >3, 7 and 14 year time intervals.
> >
> >In 1963, the annual national homicide rate was 6 per 100,000 (0.00006).
> >At least 4 of the 552 Warren Commission witnesses were murdered in the
> >first 3 years after the assassination. The equivalent Warren Commission
> >rate was 0.0024 = 4/(552*3) or 240 per 100,000 (40 times the national
> >rate).
> >
>
> But most of the people on the list were *not* Warren Commission
> witnesses. Was the Mayor of New Orleans a WC witness? He's on the
> silly list.
>
> >If the 5 accidental deaths and 1 suicide in the three year period were
> >actually homicides, then the equivalent Warren Commission rate was
> >0.006038 == 10/(552*3) or 603 per 100,000 (100 times the national
> >average).
> >
> >The Poisson Distribution calculates the probabilities of rare events
> >over time.
> >
> >We must first calculate E, the expected number of unnatural deaths: E=
> >N*R*T
> >
> >The probability of EXACTLY n unnatural deaths is: P = POISSON (n, E,
> >false).
> >
> >The probability of AT LEAST n deaths is P = 1- POISSON (n-1, E, true)
> >
> >EXAMPLE:
> >The probability of AT LEAST 14 Warren Commission witness homicides in
> >the 14 years from 1964-77:
> >E = 0.479 = N*T*R = 552*14*0.000062
> >P = 1 - Poisson (13, 0.479, true)
> >P = 4.44E-16 = 1 in 2,251,799,813,685,248
> >P = 1 in 2251 trillion</strong>
> >
> >View the witness database and the probability sensitivity tables...
> >
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWN
> >yekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1
>
> You don't seem to understand that there must be 10,000 people
> "connected" with the assassination, given the absurd critera buffs
> use.
>
> Indeed, most of the people on the list were not "connected" at all!
>
> Was the Chief steward on JFK's Air Force One connected?
>
> If he was a conspirator, why not have him poison JFK's food?
>
> .John
> --------------
>
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/home.htm
--
--------------------
http://NewsReader.Com/ --------------------
Usenet Newsgroup Service $9.95/Month 30GB