On May 2, 1:46 pm, daletx <
dal...@gnusguy.com> wrote:
> On 5/1/2012 12:00 PM, Wilson wrote:
>
> > On 5/1/2012 9:39 AM, Jigme Dorje wrote:
> >> On 5/1/2012 4:46 AM, noname wrote:
> >>> On 04/30/2012 09:58 PM, Jigme Dorje wrote:
>
> >>>> Resistance is Futile
>
> >>>> Paul Krugman criticized Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on ABC’s “This Week”
> >>>> saying he has “been assimilated by the Borg,” building on criticisms he
> >>>> made in a Times Magazine piece last week titled “Earth to Ben
> >>>> Bernanke.”
>
> >>>> “I think what’s happened to Bernanke, as they say, he’s been
> >>>> assimilated
> >>>> by the Borg,” he said. “He’s become more concerned, probably
> >>>> unconsciously, with defending the Fed’s institutional safety, because
> >>>> it’s the apostle of price stability, than with doing whatever he can to
> >>>> get this economy moving. Which if he’d listened to Professor Bernanke,
> >>>> himself 10 years ago, he would know that he was supposed to be doing
> >>>> more.”
>
> >>>> Krugman accused Bernanke of ignoring the economic advice he championed
> >>>> when he was a professor at Princeton and blamed the nation’s continuing
> >>>> economic issues on Bernanke’s failure to take actions he was
> >>>> expected to
> >>>> take, such as buying a bigger portion of the government’s debt. He
> >>>> urged
> >>>> Bernanke to focus more on the growing unemployment rate.
>
> >>>> “Allowing unemployment to stay near 9 percent, allowing the number of
> >>>> long-term unemployed to be 4 million, which it hasn’t been since the
> >>>> 1930s, which is destroying skills, destroying the attachment of workers
> >>>> to the workforce,” he said.
>
> >>>> Earth to Bernanke
>
> >>>> In his Time Magazine piece, Earth to Bernanke, Krugman acknowledges
> >>>> that
> >>>> Bernanke is a fine economist, noting that he is a a leading scholar of
> >>>> the Great Depression and modern Japan, and “the exact problems he would
> >>>> confront at the end of 2008.” Since he argued forcefully for an
> >>>> aggressive response, castigating the Bank of Japan for its
> >>>> passivity, it
> >>>> is odd that he acted differently as head of the Fed. The divergence
> >>>> between what Professor Bernanke advocated and what Chairman Bernanke
> >>>> has
> >>>> actually done is something he calls “the Bernanke Conundrum:”
>
> >>>> While the Fed went to great lengths to rescue the financial system, it
> >>>> has done far less to rescue workers. The U.S. economy remains deeply
> >>>> depressed, with long-term unemployment in particular still disastrously
> >>>> high, a point Bernanke himself has recently emphasized. Yet the Fed
> >>>> isn’t taking strong action to rectify the situation…the fact is that
> >>>> the
> >>>> Fed isn’t doing the job many economists expected it to do, and a result
> >>>> is mass suffering for American workers.
>
> >>>> Bernanke on Japan
>
> >>>> According to Krugman, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: price
> >>>> stability and maximum employement, and it normally tries to meet these
> >>>> goals by moving short-term interest rates, by adding to or subtracting
> >>>> from bank reserves. If the economy is weak and inflation is low, the
> >>>> Fed
> >>>> cuts rates, making borrowing attractive, stimulating private spending
> >>>> and potentially leading to economic recovery. Contrarily, the Fed
> >>>> raises
> >>>> rates if the economy is strong and inflation is a threat to discourages
> >>>> borrowing and spending, and cool the economy off.
>
> >>>> However, while the current economic picture shows both a weak economy
> >>>> and subdued inflation, rates can’t be cut further. Since the onset of
> >>>> the recession in 2007 until November 2008, , the Fed continued to cut
> >>>> short-term interest rates to nearly zero, hitting the “zero lower
> >>>> bound.” Has the Fed reached the limits of its usefulness?
>
> >>>> Yet, Professor Bernanke and a number of economists, took notice of a
> >>>> similar situation in Japan in the 1990s, — when a huge real estate
> >>>> bubble burst, causing high private-sector debt and a central bank up
> >>>> against the zero lower bound. While the situation in the United States
> >>>> today isn’t identical to those faced by Japan, Japan’s slump was never
> >>>> as bad as the one we face today, and unemployment never as bad.
>
> >>>> In a 2000 paper titled “Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of
> >>>> Self-Induced
> >>>> Paralysis?” Bernanke argued that the Bank of Japan could still improve
> >>>> the situation if it would “abandon its excessive caution and its
> >>>> defensive response to criticism.” He stated that Japan should act like
> >>>> F.D.R. and do whatever it takes. Some of the actions he laid out
> >>>> included:
>
> >>>> Quantitative easing —While short-term interest rates may be zero, and
> >>>> the Fed typically buys only short-term U.S. government debt, it could
> >>>> take a larger role in financial markets by buying long-term government
> >>>> debt, and mortgage-backed bonds to drive down the interest rates on
> >>>> these assets.
> >>>> Change expectations about future Fed policy — Investors’ expectations
> >>>> that the economy will eventually recover enough for the Fed to start
> >>>> raising rates again can impact on the economy now. Investors assume the
> >>>> Fed will raise rates enough to keep inflation from rising much above 2
> >>>> percent. But a wide range of economists, including the IMF’s chief
> >>>> economist argue that if the Fed were to raise its target for inflation
> >>>> for the next decade, this would aid an economy up against the zero
> >>>> lower
> >>>> bound, by persuading investors and businesses that it is not a good
> >>>> idea
> >>>> to sit on cash. Bernanke suggested that the Bank of Japan declare “a
> >>>> target in the 3-to-4-percent range for inflation, to be maintained
> >>>> for a
> >>>> number of years.”
> >>>> Chairman Bernanke vs. Professor Bernanke
>
> >>>> Chairman Bernanke has been much more passive than Professor Bernanke’s
> >>>> writings recommended. The Fed has bought over $2 trillion of long-term
> >>>> government debt and bonds of government-backed housing agencies, but
> >>>> this is much less than most analysts think is required to spur economic
> >>>> recovery. The Fed has only tried to influence market expectations about
> >>>> future policy for the near term, announcing that it doesn’t expect to
> >>>> raise short-term rates until late 2014. And Bernanke in 2010 ruled out
> >>>> the notion of a higher inflation target saying it would undermine the
> >>>> Fed’s “hard-won inflation credibility.”
>
> >>>> Don’t Worry Be Happy?
>
> >>>> Krugman examines a minority view among some economists that high
> >>>> unemployment is structural and can’t be brought down by stimulating
> >>>> people to increase spending. What is structural unemployment?
>
> >>>> Structural unemployment stresses a perceived mismatch between the work
> >>>> force and employment opportunities: workers, so the story goes, either
> >>>> have the wrong skills or are in the wrong place. But as Bernanke
> >>>> pointed
> >>>> out in a recent speech, employment looks bad across the board: “The
> >>>> fact
> >>>> that labor demand appears weak in most industries and locations is
> >>>> suggestive of a general shortfall of aggregate demand rather than a
> >>>> worsening mismatch of skills and jobs.” As a result, he declared, the
> >>>> data “do not support the view that structural factors are a major cause
> >>>> of the increase in unemployment during the most recent recession.”
>
> >>>> Regarding inflation, the Consumer Price Index, has fluctuated wildly,
> >>>> driven mainly by fluctuations in the prices of raw materials, poor
> >>>> indicators of underlying inflationary pressures. Witness the recent
> >>>> fluctuations in the price of gasoline, for instance, driven by
> >>>> speculation. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food
> >>>> prices, has remained fairly level. Yet, the Fed, instead of helping to
> >>>> improve and employment remains unwilling to take any further action to
> >>>> boost the economy.
>
> >>>> Assimilated by the Borg?
>
> >>>> Laurence Ball of Johns Hopkins University, who examined the Fed minutes
> >>>> to determine how and when Ben Bernanke’s views changed, found that the
> >>>> loss of resolve began shortly after he arrived at the Fed in 2003
> >>>> when a
> >>>> Fed staff report rejected many of the ideas Bernanke previously
> >>>> supported. What happened? Krugman points out that since 2008, the Fed
> >>>> has faced constant attacks over supposed inflationary actions.
> >>>> Right-wing bullying can’t be discounted: “he might well have
> >>>> returned to
> >>>> his earlier views if the political climate hadn’t been so hostile…As
> >>>> for
> >>>> his insistence that it’s not about politics — could he really get away
> >>>> with saying, or even hinting, that pressure from the likes of Paul Ryan
> >>>> is keeping him from pursuing full employment?
>
> >>>> Ball emphasizes both the pressures of groupthink and Bernanke’s shy
> >>>> personality. Krugman suggests it goes further — that Chairman
> >>>> Bernanke’s
> >>>> reticence to take risks is to guard the Fed from blame for embarrassing
> >>>> failures by retreating to a narrow definition of the Fed’s role. For
> >>>> instance, it would be place the Fed in an embarrassing position if a
> >>>> higher inflation target were ignored by the markets as not credible.
>
> >>>> Back in 2000, Professor Bernanke warned against exactly this kind of
> >>>> retreat, harshly criticizing the Bank of Japan’s unwillingness to “try
> >>>> anything that isn’t absolutely guaranteed to work.” But within a
> >>>> year of
> >>>> his arrival at the Fed, he seemed to have been assimilated by the Fed
> >>>> Borg, like Capt. Jean-Luc Picard in a famous “Star Trek” episode,
> >>>> converted into a half-robot servant of a hive-mind.
>
> >>>> Time to Pull the Plug on the Borg
>
> >>>> Krugman concludes that the Fed’s disappointing response given the scale
> >>>> of our economic catastrophe ”represents the effects of both bullies and
> >>>> the Borg, a combination of political intimidation and the desire to
> >>>> make
> >>>> life easy for the Fed as an institution,” and the Fed’s
> >>>> unwillingness to
> >>>> provide that help makes the Fed part of a broader problem.
>
> >>>> Consider, if you will, the current state of our nation. Despite
> >>>> hints of
> >>>> economic progress, we’re still in the midst of an immense disaster, in
> >>>> which unemployment and underemployment are devastating millions of
> >>>> American lives. And none of this need be happening! There has been no
> >>>> plague of locusts; we have not lost our technological know-how.
> >>>> Americans should be richer, not poorer, than they were five years ago.
> >>>> Yet economic policy across the board has become almost passive, has
> >>>> essentially accepted this disaster instead of trying to end it.
>
> >>>> Krugman makes a compelling case. While he believes that Ben Bernanke
> >>>> has
> >>>> done a better job than others might have, he has not done enough. No
> >>>> one
> >>>> denies — with the possible exception of Ron Paul, who appears to be
> >>>> “living in the world that was 150 years ago”— that the government is an
> >>>> integral part of the equation of the economic problem, and the Fed, as
> >>>> the Central Bank of the U.S. is part of this equation.
>
> >>>> Commentary: Principle of the political “Collective”:
>
> >>>> Whomever is elected or appointed to serve in the “Collective” is
> >>>> already
> >>>> as good as assimilated.
>
> >>>> Sources:
>
> >>>>
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/29/paul-krugman-ben-bernanke_n_...
>
> >>>>
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/magazine/chairman-bernanke-should-l...
>
> >>> Much ado about something unavoidable. Malaysia has instituted a
> >>> minimum-wage law for the first time and now it specifies a bit less than
> >>> $300 USD per month. We are looking at the end times of globalization.
> >>> The world is shrinking before our very economies. Workers in the US need
> >>> to make perhaps 10 times as much as those elsewhere (eg, Malaysia) just
> >>> to break even.
>
> >>> It's real-estate prices. Price a storefront in the US, or a warehouse.
> >>> Combine that with the cost of American workers who must pay the price
> >>> for a place to live in the US, and you'll get an idea why the world
> >>> economy is swirling the toilet.
>
> >>> Beyond that, it's taxes. If you make money the government is going to
> >>> take it away in order to pay for the abuse it thinks you need.
>
> >>> I despise these social comment threads, stupidity is very very stupid.
> >>> Hitting send then kill-thread.
>
> >> "The rent is too damn high!"
>
> > In a corner on the other side, a small group of economists from the
> > Austrian School are talking, trying to be heard over the din of
> > arguments and counter arguments that fill the room. They seem to be
> > saying that the policies Krugman advocates will inevitably lead to
> > another bubble that will eventually pop. That of course will create the
> > need for another stimulus, which will inevitably lead to another bubble
> > ... until the whole thing is simply unsustainable, and further stimulus
> > is fiscally impossible. That's when the economy comes crashing down. In
> > place of this tail chasing they advocate less manipulation of the
> > currency with a stable gold standard, and allowing the market to price
> > goods and interest rates where it will.
>
> > Of the few other economists who are even aware of them, most think they
> > are either crazy or misinformed.
>
> >
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/04/my-speech-delivered-at-n...
>
> >
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izXEWZ3rZek
>
> How's that fiscal austerity and belt-tightening working out for the EU?
>
> DT
Austro-Hungarian dissolution or full federalization?
/l