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Trent Tobler  
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 More options Nov 14 1991, 9:19 am
Newsgroups: alt.atheism
From: ttob...@unislc.uucp (Trent Tobler)
Date: 14 Nov 91 02:58:44 GMT
Local: Wed, Nov 13 1991 9:58 pm
Subject: Re: Newcomb's Paradox

Hi James!

jbr...@sleepy.bmd.trw.com writes:

> Free Will argument:  The Being has put something in box B because he knows
>    that I will choose box B, therefore I choose box B.

I disagree.  This is weak free will (as opposed to strong free will).  Weak
free will is considered deterministic.  Strong free will, a choice independant
of any cause including the prediction of the being, would say that the being
could not predict my choice.  Weak free will, simply that of being presented
with two or more options and picking one based on cause/learning/intelligence,
would mean that the Being could determine, is a deterministic point of view.

> Determinism argument:  What I choose makes no difference, the boxes' contents
>    are the way they are, so I choose both boxes.

This again, is slightly incorrect.  IF the world is deterministic, and this
being had a way to predict the future with a great accuracy, he would be
able to predict that I would 'choose' both boxes (weak free will) and
would not have placed the $1M in box B.  However, if I choose only box B,
the being would also have been able to determine (<-note root word in
deterministic) that this would have been my choice and placed the $1M in
the box.

> It depends on how highly you regard the Being's ability to predict your choice,
> and on how trustworthy that you think he is.  The real choice for you is one
> of assessing the character and ability of the Being.

This is true.  He would first have to be accurate, and also honest ("No, I
knew you would only choose box B, and I didn't want to lose any money" :)

> Given such a Being that can prepare the boxes based on your choice, your choice
> *is* the causal factor in determining what is in the boxes.

Unless your choice is an effect from the causes (state of the universe) that
the being used to predict what to place in the boxes.  In this case (the
deterministic case) the 'choice' is an effect of the previous state, and not
really a 'cause' of the contents of the box in a traditional sense (although
in this case, causality could be reversed)

I still think I would prefer fowling (you know, throw a duck in it :) up the
beings prediction and use the outcome of some quantum affect that had a 50%
probability to decide what to choose (the hypothetical flipping of the coin).

--
  Trent Tobler - ttob...@csulx.weber.edu


 
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Steven J. Edwards  
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 More options Nov 14 1991, 12:41 pm
Newsgroups: alt.atheism
From: s...@xylos.ma30.bull.com (Steven J. Edwards)
Date: 14 Nov 91 17:04:44 GMT
Local: Thurs, Nov 14 1991 12:04 pm
Subject: Re: Newcomb's Paradox

In article <1991Nov14.025844.16...@unislc.uucp> ttob...@unislc.uucp (Trent Tobler) writes:
> jbr...@sleepy.bmd.trw.com writes:

> I still think I would prefer fowling (you know, throw a duck in it :) up the
> beings prediction and use the outcome of some quantum affect that had a 50%
> probability to decide what to choose (the hypothetical flipping of the coin).

        In the version of Newcomb's Paradox from Martin Gardner, there
is an additional condition that deals with chance selection.  If the
Great Ooga Booga predicts that the human will use a randomizer, It
makes both boxes empty!

        There is really no paradox involved.  The "free will" payoff
matrix (take both boxes) is false because it is predicated on the
contridiction that suffciently accurate prediction and free will can
co-exist in the same universe.

        I would take box B and very likely get the million dollars.
On the other hand, Gardner published the responses of a number of
prominent individuals, and several would take both boxes and so risk
receiving only a thousand bucks.  Isacc Asimov wrote that he thought
that picking both boxes was the required choice of an atheist (which
he is [I'm not]), as the alternative would be equivalent to admission
of an omniscent being.  He also stated that if such a person was lucky
enough to get the million dollars as well, the value of disproving the
existence of an omniscent predictor outweighed the value of the cash.

 [The above opinions expressed are my own; not necessarily held by others.]
      == Steven J. Edwards           Bull HN Information Systems Inc. ==
      == (508) 294-3484              300 Concord Road         MS 820A ==
      == s...@xylos.ma30.bull.com     Billerica, MA 01821          USA ==
"That Government which Governs the Least, Governs Best." -- Thomas Jefferson


 
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Discussion subject changed to "Determinism from Non-Determinism" by house ron
house ron  
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 More options Nov 15 1991, 3:12 am
Newsgroups: alt.atheism
From: s64...@zeus.usq.EDU.AU (house ron)
Date: 15 Nov 91 12:37:58 GMT
Local: Fri, Nov 15 1991 7:37 am
Subject: Re: Determinism from Non-Determinism

f...@castle.ed.ac.uk (M Holmes) writes:
>s64...@zeus.usq.EDU.AU (house ron) writes:
>>gra...@maths.su.oz.au (Graham Matthews) writes:
>[re: determinism...]
>>This way of looking at it seems to ignore the recent insights of chaos
>>theory.  _Bulk_ matter behaves statistically, but very small changes in
>>initial conditions results in very divergent results.  It seems to me that
>>if microscopic phenomena are indeterminate, then even macroscopic
>>effects will not be deterministic.
>Chaos Theory says that complex systems will have highly divergent
>results based upon very small divergence in initial conditions. It does
>not say that the system is in principle unpredictable, only that you
>need very accurate measurements in order to do the predicting.

You misunderstand my point.  In such a divergent system, the future
behaviour is inherently unstable with regard to the initial conditions.
But according to QM there is a lower limit below which we _cannot_
make a measurement, because the physical system simply does not
possess these particular measurable attributes to any greater precision.
This means that there is a minscule, but real, uncertainty in such things
as the air pressure, temperature, etc.  The future divergence will come
from this _real_ indeterminacy in the initial conditions.

--
Regards,

Ron House.   (s64...@zeus.usq.edu.au)
(By post: Info Tech, U.C.S.Q. Toowoomba. Australia. 4350)


 
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Alex Bunker  
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 More options Nov 17 1991, 8:20 am
Newsgroups: alt.atheism
From: bun...@physun.physics.mcmaster.ca (Alex Bunker)
Date: 14 Nov 91 18:39:47 GMT
Local: Thurs, Nov 14 1991 1:39 pm
Subject: Re: Determinism from Non-Determinism

Well No, actually reality is a bit more subtle than that. when a
dynamical system is chaotic then the accuracy to which you have measured
the initial conditions lengthens the time over which you can predict events
but no matter how accurately you make the measurements eventually the
time over which you can predict the events will run out because it is
impossible to measure anyting to infinite accuracy. So while reality is
still deterministic it is no longer predictable.

ALEX BUNKER


 
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Discussion subject changed to "Newcomb's Paradox" by jbr...@sleepy.bmd.trw.com
jbrown  
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 More options Nov 19 1991, 6:01 am
Newsgroups: alt.atheism
From: jbr...@sleepy.bmd.trw.com
Date: 19 Nov 91 01:55:58 GMT
Local: Mon, Nov 18 1991 8:55 pm
Subject: Re: Newcomb's Paradox

In article <1991Nov14.025844.16...@unislc.uucp>, ttob...@unislc.uucp (Trent Tobler) writes:
> Hi James!

Hi Trent!

> jbr...@sleepy.bmd.trw.com writes:

>> Free Will argument:  The Being has put something in box B because he knows
>>    that I will choose box B, therefore I choose box B.

> I disagree.  This is weak free will (as opposed to strong free will).  Weak
> free will is considered deterministic.  Strong free will, a choice independant
> of any cause including the prediction of the being, would say that the being
> could not predict my choice.  Weak free will, simply that of being presented
> with two or more options and picking one based on cause/learning/intelligence,
> would mean that the Being could determine, is a deterministic point of view.

OK, I accept your classification of my position as "weak" free will.  In fact,
as we have discussed before, (weak) free will and (weak) determinism are simply
two sides of the same coin.  Free Will _____ Determinism:  the conjunctive that
goes in the blank is "and" and not "exclusive or".  More on this after your
next comment.

>> Determinism argument:  What I choose makes no difference, the boxes' contents
>>    are the way they are, so I choose both boxes.

> This again, is slightly incorrect.  IF the world is deterministic, and this
> being had a way to predict the future with a great accuracy, he would be
> able to predict that I would 'choose' both boxes (weak free will) and
> would not have placed the $1M in box B.  However, if I choose only box B,
> the being would also have been able to determine (<-note root word in
> deterministic) that this would have been my choice and placed the $1M in
> the box.

So therefore an omniscient being predicts your choice regardless of you have
free will or your choices are determined.  Now is the time to clarify the
two types of free will you mentioned and the two types of determinism that
I mentioned.

Working definitions in regard to omniscience:
Determinism:  1. (Strong)  Persons have no freedom of action, for the being
        has determined (chosen for them) what they will do.  All their decisions
        are forced decisions.  Strong Determinism precludes free will of any
        type.
        2. (Weak) Persons have freedom of action, for the being only determines
        (identifies) what their decisions will be.  No decisions are forced.
        Weak Determinism does not preclude weak free will.
Free Will:  1. (Strong)  Persons have freedom of action, and their decisions
        cannot be known in advance.  This type of free will (absolute
        autonomy of action) does preclude determinism of any type.  This is
        the type of free will that the anti-omniscience debaters always
        assumed was Free Will back during the Free Will vs. Omniscience
        discussions last summer.
        2. (Weak)  Persons have freedom of action, and their decisions can
        be known or identified in advance by a sufficiently shrewd being or
        an  omniscient one.  This type of free will is compatible with weak
        determinism described above.

As I stated last summer, and will rephrase here in light of the above working
definitions, weak free will and weak determinism (allowing for omniscience)
are not contradictory.  Only the strong types preclude the other.  This may
be the solution to the semantics dilemma I ran afoul of when this was debated
last.  Thanks, Trent, for pointing out the strong/weak distinction; I think
that this may clear up some of the misunderstanding.

And for the case of omniscience, I submit that the causality IS reversed.
Remember, omniscience is not simply "looking ahead" or "predicting the future",
it is looking back at the event before the event takes place.  The event (or
decision in this case) is the cause, and the being's prior action is dependent
on that decision/cause.  The paradox is resolved in the *nature* of the being
itself, in the essence of what omniscience is.  The being does not choose what
to put in the box until he experiences your decision.  Then he puts the prize
there according to the rules so that you get only what the rules allow for.

> I still think I would prefer fowling (you know, throw a duck in it :) up the
> beings prediction and use the outcome of some quantum affect that had a 50%
> probability to decide what to choose (the hypothetical flipping of the coin).

> --
>   Trent Tobler - ttob...@csulx.weber.edu

Many tried to assert last summer that strong free will is essentially the
same as randomness, like the QM example you give.  The idea was that the
person would choose as arbitrarily as possible to preclude any possibility
of an omniscient prediction.  But the problem with this is that human
decisions are rarely, if ever, arbitrary on anything, especially if the
choice really matters.  If I choose a Coke over a Pepsi, it's because I
really wanted a Coke.  If I choose to buy a car, it's the best fit to
a set of criteria I've established beforehand.  Human decisions are hardly
ever random.  Close friends can usually predict with near exacting accuracy
what a person will do in a given situation.  They are not contraining
(forcing) the person's choice, they are merely identifying (determining)
what that person's *free* choice will be under the circumstances.  An
omnipotent, omniscient God can certainly determine all of our choices in
like manner without forcing our decisions in any way.  Therefore, whether
(as a theist) one believes in strong determinism or free will with weak
determinism, omniscience on the part of God does not present a problem.
Only if you believe in a strong (random/arbitrary) type of free will is
the idea of God and omniscience necessarily precluded.

Regards,

Jim B.


 
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