Since Igtheist has decided that he knows more about economics than Paul Krugman, the 1992 recepient of the John Bates Clark Medal, given by the American Economics Association, the academic government body of all professional PhD economists in America, to the best economist under the age of 40, and whom is consdered by many to be a future Nobel Laureate for his researches on international economics, I shall hereby challenge Mr Igtheist's economic forecasts.
Now by the oracle of the Austrian School of Economics, Mr. Igtheist has made the following predictions, as documented on alt.atheism:
US will face massive inflation, the like of which 'not seen in history' The price of precious metal will decline US housing prices will decline The stock market will decline The US dollar will depreciate
So to that end, I issue the following challenge Mr. Igtheist:
IF, in the next 365 days,
US experiences inflation rate of 30% or higher [1], AND the price of gold is 5% lower then than now [2], AND the aggregate housing price of the US is lower then than now [3], AND the stock market will be lower in a year [4], AND that the US dollar wll depreciate [5]
THEN
By the power vested in my by the University of California and the privilege conferred upon by my PhD in economics I shall henthforth:
Hereby renounce any allegaince to John Maynard Keynes, AND Publicly state, on alt.atheism, on what a smart stud Igtheist is, AND Write a $10 check to a charity of Igtheist's choice, AND Purchase a mini shrine of Ayn Rand, for which I can pray nightly to.
HOWEVER, should ANY of the above predictions prove to be FALSE, then Mr. Igtheist shall:
Publicly state, on alt.atheism, that this Austrian School of Economics is full of shit.
FURTHERMORE, I am willing to entertain any reasonable amendments to the predictions above. IF Mr. Igtheist thinks that the stcok market will be lower in 2 years rather than 1 or if Mr Igtheist would like to define any of measures in a more techinical fashion, I will make these changes accordingly.
So what says you Mr. Igtheist? Here is your chance to make a convert to your true faith. A simple empirical test and reward awaits you.
[1] as measured by BLS, CPI, GDP deflator, or BEA [2] as measured by any standard mercantile indexes [3] as measured by OFHEO, Freddie Mac, or MRAC [4] as measured by NYSE or S&P 500 [5] as defined by year-to-year depreciation against at least 50 of the world's currencies
-----
Yang a.a. #28 a.a. pastor #-273.15, the most frigid church of Celcius nee Kelvin EAC Econometric Forecast and Socerey Division Proudly plonked by Lani Girl and Crazyalec
The Bush 'balanced' budget: -525 billion and worsening The Bush 'economic' policy: -3 million jobs and counting The Bush Iraq lie: -344 GIs, one friend's co-worker's son and mounting
In alt.atheism on Tue, 28 Oct 2003 07:31:10 GMT, eacm...@SPAMmail.com (Yang, What About Overrated White Athletes Like Jeremy Shockey?) let us all know that:
>Since Igtheist has decided that he knows more about economics than >Paul Krugman, the 1992 recepient of the John Bates Clark Medal, given >by the American Economics Association, the academic government body of >all professional PhD economists in America, to the best economist >under the age of 40, and whom is consdered by many to be a future >Nobel Laureate for his researches on international economics, I shall >hereby challenge Mr Igtheist's economic forecasts.
"Before deconstructing Krugman's economic views, let me also say that at least when it comes to his columns, he is more of a political operative than he is an economist. (That being said, many "public intellectuals" also are little more than shills for political parties, both left and right.) If all we read on economics were Krugman's columns, we would learn that Bill Clinton gave us prosperity because his administration pushed a tax increase through Congress in 1993. That tax increase, says Krugman, enabled us to "balance" the federal budget, which magically created a good economy. (That the federal budget actually was never "balanced" in conventional accounting terms, and that the alleged balanced budgets occurred late in Clinton's term during the Fed-created unsustainable boom, and not when taxes were increased seems to be off Krugman's radar screen.)"
You'll note that the author teachers economics, too.
>Now by the oracle of the Austrian School of Economics, Mr. Igtheist >has made the following predictions, as documented on alt.atheism:
>US will face massive inflation, the like of which 'not seen in >history'
Inflation is happening, and Greenspan is facing a problem ala Japan: he can't cut the fed rate much more (a nice quote from the Mises conference this weekend was "Greenspan has 4 arrows left in his quiver, and they are all 1/4 of a percentage point").
Did you know that 50.7% of M1 in the US is currency?
Anyway, Greenspan is having problems.
>The price of precious metal will decline
Might.
>US housing prices will decline
Talked with people in real estate this weekend. They think this is just a bubble.
>The stock market will decline
Seems that it already did.
>The US dollar will depreciate
Taken a look at the exchange rate vs. the Euro lately?
At any rate, it's partly Keynes' idiocy that has brought us to this mess we're in. Stimulate spending by government intervention? HOGWASH!
Don --- aa #51, Knight of BAAWA, DNRC o-, Member of the [H]orde Atheist Minister for St. Dogbert.
"No being is so important that he can usurp the rights of another" Picard to Data/Graves "The Schizoid Man"
<ROT13.qxer...@jv.ee.pbz.com> wrote: >In alt.atheism on Tue, 28 Oct 2003 07:31:10 GMT, eacm...@SPAMmail.com >(Yang, What About Overrated White Athletes Like Jeremy Shockey?) let >us all know that: >>Since Igtheist has decided that he knows more about economics than >>Paul Krugman, the 1992 recepient of the John Bates Clark Medal, given >>by the American Economics Association, the academic government body of >>all professional PhD economists in America, to the best economist >>under the age of 40, and whom is consdered by many to be a future >>Nobel Laureate for his researches on international economics, I shall >>hereby challenge Mr Igtheist's economic forecasts.
>"Before deconstructing Krugman's economic views, let me also say that >at least when it comes to his columns, he is more of a political >operative than he is an economist. (That being said, many "public >intellectuals" also are little more than shills for political parties, >both left and right.) If all we read on economics were Krugman's >columns, we would learn that Bill Clinton gave us prosperity because >his administration pushed a tax increase through Congress in 1993. >That tax increase, says Krugman, enabled us to "balance" the federal >budget, which magically created a good economy. (That the federal >budget actually was never "balanced" in conventional accounting terms, >and that the alleged balanced budgets occurred late in Clinton's term >during the Fed-created unsustainable boom, and not when taxes were >increased seems to be off Krugman's radar screen.)"
>You'll note that the author teachers economics, too.
>>Now by the oracle of the Austrian School of Economics, Mr. Igtheist >>has made the following predictions, as documented on alt.atheism:
>>US will face massive inflation, the like of which 'not seen in >>history'
> Inflation is happening, and Greenspan is facing a problem ala >Japan: he can't cut the fed rate much more
And you know who told you that? Paul Krugman. Go ahead go back and read up on economic liteterature, take a guess who were some of the earliest people that wrote about the presence of the liquidity trap in Japan.
>Did you know that 50.7% of M1 in the US is currency?
>Anyway, Greenspan is having problems.
>>The price of precious metal will decline
> Might.
>>US housing prices will decline
> Talked with people in real estate this weekend. They think this >is just a bubble.
>>The stock market will decline
> Seems that it already did.
>>The US dollar will depreciate
> Taken a look at the exchange rate vs. the Euro lately?
> At any rate, it's partly Keynes' idiocy that has brought us to >this mess we're in. Stimulate spending by government intervention? >HOGWASH!
Would you like to put your money where your mouth is? Igtheist has made some very specific claims. Either this Austiran school of economics is true and ALL his prediction come true, or that its not.
So I shall extend my challenege to you. If ALL of the above predictions bear out, I will renounce Keynes and all his tenents, if not, you will renounce this Austrian School of Economics. Here's your chance, you can talk the talk, but are you willing to walk the walk?
-----
Yang a.a. #28 a.a. pastor #-273.15, the most frigid church of Celcius nee Kelvin EAC Econometric Forecast and Socerey Division Proudly plonked by Lani Girl and Crazyalec
The Bush 'balanced' budget: -525 billion and worsening The Bush 'economic' policy: -3 million jobs and counting The Bush Iraq lie: -344 GIs, one friend's co-worker's son and mounting
In alt.atheism on Wed, 29 Oct 2003 02:22:54 GMT, eacm...@SPAMmail.com (Yang, What About Overrated White Athletes Like Jeremy Shockey?) let us all know that:
>On Tue, 28 Oct 2003 18:09:01 -0600, Don Kresch ><ROT13.qxer...@jv.ee.pbz.com> wrote:
>>In alt.atheism on Tue, 28 Oct 2003 07:31:10 GMT, eacm...@SPAMmail.com >>(Yang, What About Overrated White Athletes Like Jeremy Shockey?) let >>us all know that: >>>Since Igtheist has decided that he knows more about economics than >>>Paul Krugman, the 1992 recepient of the John Bates Clark Medal, given >>>by the American Economics Association, the academic government body of >>>all professional PhD economists in America, to the best economist >>>under the age of 40, and whom is consdered by many to be a future >>>Nobel Laureate for his researches on international economics, I shall >>>hereby challenge Mr Igtheist's economic forecasts.
>>"Before deconstructing Krugman's economic views, let me also say that >>at least when it comes to his columns, he is more of a political >>operative than he is an economist. (That being said, many "public >>intellectuals" also are little more than shills for political parties, >>both left and right.) If all we read on economics were Krugman's >>columns, we would learn that Bill Clinton gave us prosperity because >>his administration pushed a tax increase through Congress in 1993. >>That tax increase, says Krugman, enabled us to "balance" the federal >>budget, which magically created a good economy. (That the federal >>budget actually was never "balanced" in conventional accounting terms, >>and that the alleged balanced budgets occurred late in Clinton's term >>during the Fed-created unsustainable boom, and not when taxes were >>increased seems to be off Krugman's radar screen.)"
>>You'll note that the author teachers economics, too.
>>>Now by the oracle of the Austrian School of Economics, Mr. Igtheist >>>has made the following predictions, as documented on alt.atheism:
>>>US will face massive inflation, the like of which 'not seen in >>>history'
>> Inflation is happening, and Greenspan is facing a problem ala >>Japan: he can't cut the fed rate much more
>And you know who told you that?
Greenspan himself, actually. The fed rate stands at 1 fucking percent. He can't cut it much more, can he?
Or haven't you been paying attention to that?
Have you wondered why the fed killed the "discount rate" and now uses something weird in its place, which happens to be above the fed rate (2.25%, I believe)?
> Paul Krugman.
Citation?
If (no citation) then (rejection).
> Go ahead go back and >read up on economic liteterature, take a guess who were some of the >earliest people that wrote about the presence of the liquidity trap in >Japan.
I do like Hans-Hermann Hoppe. Even got a photo with him and his new anthology autographed (1st edition!). I'm hoping so save enough money to do the week-long seminar with him next May.
You can't goad me with some childish bet, you know.
Don --- aa #51, Knight of BAAWA, DNRC o-, Member of the [H]orde Atheist Minister for St. Dogbert.
"No being is so important that he can usurp the rights of another" Picard to Data/Graves "The Schizoid Man"
Well, looks like your rejection has been rejected.
>> Go ahead go back and >>read up on economic liteterature, take a guess who were some of the >>earliest people that wrote about the presence of the liquidity trap in >>Japan.
> The Austrians.
And the citation for that is?
>>Would you like to put your money where your mouth is?
> Is there a reason I should?
Ah, so you're one of those theists who can talk the talk, but can't walk the walk. Why didn't you say so earlier? I'll provide this link via deja.com to the next Christian whom you castigate for not willing to test the validity of their religion, just so they know what a manly man atheist you really are.
>>So I shall extend my challenege to you. If ALL of the above >>predictions bear out, I will renounce Keynes and all his tenents,
Then you should have no problem taking up my challenge then, right?. What, chicken?
> I do like Hans-Hermann Hoppe. Even got a photo with him and his >new anthology autographed (1st edition!). I'm hoping so save enough >money to do the week-long seminar with him next May.
> You can't goad me with some childish bet, you know.
What, you don't have enough faith in yoru school of economics? Simple empirical test, you do believe in evidence right? Either your predictions are correct and Keynes is full of shit, or your prediction are wrong and your economics are full of shit. Oh, you mean no test can ever shake your faith?
-----
Yang a.a. #28 a.a. pastor #-273.15, the most frigid church of Celcius nee Kelvin EAC Econometric Forecast and Socerey Division Proudly plonked by Lani Girl and Crazyalec
The Bush 'balanced' budget: -525 billion and worsening The Bush 'economic' policy: -3 million jobs and counting The Bush Iraq lie: -354 GIs, one friend's co-worker's son and mounting
In alt.atheism on Wed, 29 Oct 2003 06:04:30 GMT, eacm...@SPAMmail.com (Yang, What About Overrated White Athletes Like Jeremy Shockey?) let us all know that:
>On Wed, 29 Oct 2003 03:41:11 GMT, Don Kresch ><ROT13.qxer...@jv.ee.pbz.com> wrote:
>Well, looks like your rejection has been rejected.
No, it hasn't. I asked you for one, and if none was forthcoming, I was going to reject it.
Maybe you ought to THINK before you type.
>>> Go ahead go back and >>>read up on economic liteterature, take a guess who were some of the >>>earliest people that wrote about the presence of the liquidity trap in >>>Japan.
>Then you should have no problem taking up my challenge then, right?.
Child.
>> I do like Hans-Hermann Hoppe. Even got a photo with him and his >>new anthology autographed (1st edition!). I'm hoping so save enough >>money to do the week-long seminar with him next May.
>> You can't goad me with some childish bet, you know.
>What, you don't have enough faith in yoru school of economics?
Child.
Don --- aa #51, Knight of BAAWA, DNRC o-, Member of the [H]orde Atheist Minister for St. Dogbert.
"No being is so important that he can usurp the rights of another" Picard to Data/Graves "The Schizoid Man"
> In alt.atheism on Tue, 28 Oct 2003 07:31:10 GMT, eacm...@SPAMmail.com
<>
> Did you know that 50.7% of M1 in the US is currency?
Is that high or low? What does that imply? (If you don't mind my naiive questions.)
Its been 14 years since I've had an economics class. I think I remember the jist of Keynes being that public spending can smooth out the business cycle.
I don't remember what role money supply played.
<>
> >US housing prices will decline
> Talked with people in real estate this weekend. They think this > is just a bubble.
I expected that bubble to burst this past spring. It didn't and employment seems to have bottomed out. I'm wondering if it won't burst or if I was premature and not looking at the right factors.
<>
> At any rate, it's partly Keynes' idiocy that has brought us to > this mess we're in. Stimulate spending by government intervention? > HOGWASH!
Interesting. ;) Keynes has been denounced and redeamed several times in the past 60 years, hasn't he?
>> Did you know that 50.7% of M1 in the US is currency?
>Is that high or low?
Very high. In the past it has only been about 20%
> What does that imply? >(If you don't mind my naiive questions.)
That the amount of currency has been growing tremendously.
>Its been 14 years since I've had an economics class. >I think I remember the jist of Keynes being that public spending >can smooth out the business cycle.
Government interference is what causes it, though.
>I don't remember what role money supply played.
Inflation/deflation.
><>
>> >US housing prices will decline
>> Talked with people in real estate this weekend. They think this >> is just a bubble.
>I expected that bubble to burst this past spring. >It didn't and employment seems to have bottomed out. >I'm wondering if it won't burst or if I was premature >and not looking at the right factors.
Good question.
><>
>> At any rate, it's partly Keynes' idiocy that has brought us to >> this mess we're in. Stimulate spending by government intervention? >> HOGWASH!
>Interesting. ;) >Keynes has been denounced and redeamed several times >in the past 60 years, hasn't he?
I don't see where he's ever been actually redeemed, mind you.
Don --- aa #51, Knight of BAAWA, DNRC o-, Member of the [H]orde Atheist Minister for St. Dogbert.
"No being is so important that he can usurp the rights of another" Picard to Data/Graves "The Schizoid Man"
<ROT13.qxer...@jv.ee.pbz.com> wrote: >In alt.atheism on Wed, 29 Oct 2003 06:04:30 GMT, eacm...@SPAMmail.com >(Yang, What About Overrated White Athletes Like Jeremy Shockey?) let >us all know that: >>On Wed, 29 Oct 2003 03:41:11 GMT, Don Kresch >><ROT13.qxer...@jv.ee.pbz.com> wrote:
>>Well, looks like your rejection has been rejected.
> No, it hasn't. I asked you for one, and if none was forthcoming, >I was going to reject it.
> Maybe you ought to THINK before you type.
That WAS a citation, you fucking moron. It was published in 1998, his treatises on Japan were one of the most widely cited papers inside and outside of academia
Maybe you ought to stop LYING about your bullshit ideology.
>>>> Go ahead go back and >>>>read up on economic liteterature, take a guess who were some of the >>>>earliest people that wrote about the presence of the liquidity trap in >>>>Japan.
>>Then you should have no problem taking up my challenge then, right?.
> Child.
Pussy.
>>> I do like Hans-Hermann Hoppe. Even got a photo with him and his >>>new anthology autographed (1st edition!). I'm hoping so save enough >>>money to do the week-long seminar with him next May.
>>> You can't goad me with some childish bet, you know.
>>What, you don't have enough faith in yoru school of economics?
> Child.
I'll remind you of your intellectual cowardance the next time you post.
-----
Yang a.a. #28 a.a. pastor #-273.15, the most frigid church of Celcius nee Kelvin EAC Econometric Forecast and Socerey Division Proudly plonked by Lani Girl and Crazyalec
The Bush 'balanced' budget: -525 billion and worsening The Bush 'economic' policy: -3 million jobs and counting The Bush Iraq lie: -354 GIs, one friend's co-worker's son and mounting
> Since Igtheist has decided that he knows more about economics than > Paul Krugman, the 1992 recepient of the John Bates Clark Medal, given > by the American Economics Association, the academic government body of > all professional PhD economists in America, to the best economist > under the age of 40, and whom is consdered by many to be a future > Nobel Laureate for his researches on international economics, I shall > hereby challenge Mr Igtheist's economic forecasts.
> Now by the oracle of the Austrian School of Economics, Mr. Igtheist > has made the following predictions, as documented on alt.atheism:
> US will face massive inflation, the like of which 'not seen in > history'
I don't expect 30% as you posted below. Nor do I recall ever saying 'not seen in history' as that would imply that I was talking hyperinflation. I don't think we are there yet.
> The price of precious metal will decline
I am hoping for a short term pullback so I can buy but I expect them to go up.
> US housing prices will decline
We are in housing bubble will continue then decline.
> The stock market will decline
We are in a bull market within a larger bear market. The current bubble will continue for a while then pop. The economy is incredibly imbalanced right now.
> The US dollar will depreciate
Has 30% already. It it's got much further to go. We cannot pay off all the debt backing the dollar so it has to eventually go down. We are in grave danger of causing dollar to lose it's standing in the world. Of course other countries can devalue their currencies on top of the dollar but that would lead to worldwide inflation. Which is good for commodity prices and precious metals.
> So to that end, I issue the following challenge Mr. Igtheist:
> IF, in the next 365 days,
Too short term. The "internet bubble" lasted a good two years beyond where I thought it made any sense. The tax cut GDP boom may or may not last into the election. Stock prices may get more insane from here but they are still way over valued. I will be picking them up when their P/E ratios are back down below 15 maybe less.
> US experiences inflation rate of 30% or higher [1], AND
Don't be silly. It could be that Greenspan and successors are that stupid but I doubt it. To get to those levels they would have to continue Keynesian policy even after it is obvious it isn't working.
> the price of gold is 5% lower then than now [2], AND
Based on volitility I would hope it drops 5% sometime between now and next year. If not then I will have missed the boat. I did get some silver at around $4.80 during the last dip.
> the aggregate housing price of the US is lower then than now [3], AND > the stock market will be lower in a year [4], AND > that the US dollar wll depreciate [5]
> THEN
> By the power vested in my by the University of California and the > privilege conferred upon by my PhD in economics I shall henthforth:
> Hereby renounce any allegaince to John Maynard Keynes, AND
Stagflation should have done that for you if you had an empircal bone in your body.
> Publicly state, on alt.atheism, on what a smart stud Igtheist is, AND > Write a $10 check to a charity of Igtheist's choice, AND > Purchase a mini shrine of Ayn Rand, for which I can pray nightly to.
That would be Mises or say Rothbard.
> HOWEVER, should ANY of the above predictions prove to be FALSE, then > Mr. Igtheist shall:
> Publicly state, on alt.atheism, that this Austrian School of Economics > is full of shit.
Let's see. If all five predictions don't go exactly as you falsely claim that I claim (in the short time frames that you think these things operate) then and only then you will doubt your education. However if just one is wrong I have to eat shit? How brave of you.
> FURTHERMORE, I am willing to entertain any reasonable amendments to > the predictions above. IF Mr. Igtheist thinks that the stcok market > will be lower in 2 years rather than 1 or if Mr Igtheist would like to > define any of measures in a more techinical fashion, I will make these > changes accordingly.
> So what says you Mr. Igtheist? Here is your chance to make a convert > to your true faith. A simple empirical test and reward awaits you.
> [1] as measured by BLS, CPI, GDP deflator, or BEA > [2] as measured by any standard mercantile indexes > [3] as measured by OFHEO, Freddie Mac, or MRAC > [4] as measured by NYSE or S&P 500 > [5] as defined by year-to-year depreciation against at least 50 of the > world's currencies
(Igtheist) wrote: >eacm...@SPAMmail.com (Yang, What About Overrated White Athletes Like Jeremy Shockey?) wrote in message <news:3f9e12ca.13653062@news.cox.net>... >> Since Igtheist has decided that he knows more about economics than >> Paul Krugman, the 1992 recepient of the John Bates Clark Medal, given >> by the American Economics Association, the academic government body of >> all professional PhD economists in America, to the best economist >> under the age of 40, and whom is consdered by many to be a future >> Nobel Laureate for his researches on international economics, I shall >> hereby challenge Mr Igtheist's economic forecasts.
>> Now by the oracle of the Austrian School of Economics, Mr. Igtheist >> has made the following predictions, as documented on alt.atheism:
>> US will face massive inflation, the like of which 'not seen in >> history' >I don't expect 30% as you posted below. Nor do I recall ever saying >'not seen in history' as that would imply that I was talking >hyperinflation. I don't think we are there yet.
"As I predicted in a prior post. We are going to get deflation for a short period if at all and mostly in producer prices. On the consumer end we are going to get apparent CPI deflation mainly due to the lowering of rents as people are attracted to home ownership with the low rates. However after that we are going to get inflation like we haven't seen in quite awhile"
I read your 'quite a while' clause as something within that past 30 years. The inflation rate during the 70's was in the neighborhood of 10-20%. If you would like to make that adjustment to 30% I threw out?
And by the way, there was no deflation in the for a short period nor were there lowering of rents. what happened?
>> The price of precious metal will decline >I am hoping for a short term pullback so I can buy but I expect them >to go up.
That's fine also, define your time horizon and let the chips fall where they may.
>> US housing prices will decline >We are in housing bubble will continue then decline.
>> The stock market will decline >We are in a bull market within a larger bear market. The current >bubble will continue for a while then pop. The economy is incredibly >imbalanced right now.
>> The US dollar will depreciate >Has 30% already. It it's got much further to go. We cannot pay off >all the debt backing the dollar so it has to eventually go down. We >are in grave danger of causing dollar to lose it's standing in the >world. Of course other countries can devalue their currencies on top >of the dollar but that would lead to worldwide inflation. Which is >good for commodity prices and precious metals.
>> So to that end, I issue the following challenge Mr. Igtheist:
>> IF, in the next 365 days,
>Too short term. The "internet bubble" lasted a good two years beyond >where I thought it made any sense. The tax cut GDP boom may or may >not last into the election. Stock prices may get more insane from >here but they are still way over valued. I will be picking them up >when their P/E ratios are back down below 15 maybe less.
Again, that is fine with me. Define your time horizon. And I'll keep track.
>> US experiences inflation rate of 30% or higher [1], AND >Don't be silly. It could be that Greenspan and successors are that >stupid but I doubt it. To get to those levels they would have to >continue Keynesian policy even after it is obvious it isn't working.
>> the price of gold is 5% lower then than now [2], AND >Based on volitility I would hope it drops 5% sometime between now and >next year. If not then I will have missed the boat. I did get >some silver at around $4.80 during the last dip.
>> the aggregate housing price of the US is lower then than now [3], AND >> the stock market will be lower in a year [4], AND >> that the US dollar wll depreciate [5]
>> THEN
>> By the power vested in my by the University of California and the >> privilege conferred upon by my PhD in economics I shall henthforth:
>> Hereby renounce any allegaince to John Maynard Keynes, AND >Stagflation should have done that for you if you had an empircal bone >in your body.
Why don't you remind me again just how superior your school of economics is in comparison to everyone else?
>> Publicly state, on alt.atheism, on what a smart stud Igtheist is, AND >> Write a $10 check to a charity of Igtheist's choice, AND >> Purchase a mini shrine of Ayn Rand, for which I can pray nightly to.
>That would be Mises or say Rothbard.
Sure, whatever you want.
>> HOWEVER, should ANY of the above predictions prove to be FALSE, then >> Mr. Igtheist shall:
>> Publicly state, on alt.atheism, that this Austrian School of Economics >> is full of shit.
>Let's see. If all five predictions don't go exactly as you falsely >claim that I claim (in the short time frames that you think these >things operate) then and only then you will doubt your education. >However if just one is wrong I have to eat shit? How brave of you.
On the contrary, I threw those terms out with the FULL expectation that you would would want to adjust them, which I have OFFERED them to you. I don't to plan to speak for you, so here is your chance- you made 5 qualitative predictions are are quite different from everyone else. You are welcome to adjust both the time frame and the the magnitude of these predictions to your hearts content. I'll take those predictions (provided that they are materially different from predictions of the Fed) and measure them up, and let the chips fall where they may.
That sounds like a fair contest to me, don't you think?
>> FURTHERMORE, I am willing to entertain any reasonable amendments to >> the predictions above. IF Mr. Igtheist thinks that the stcok market >> will be lower in 2 years rather than 1 or if Mr Igtheist would like to >> define any of measures in a more techinical fashion, I will make these >> changes accordingly.
>How generous of you.
Either you stand by your predictions or you don't. Which is it?
>> So what says you Mr. Igtheist? Here is your chance to make a convert >> to your true faith. A simple empirical test and reward awaits you.
>> [1] as measured by BLS, CPI, GDP deflator, or BEA >> [2] as measured by any standard mercantile indexes >> [3] as measured by OFHEO, Freddie Mac, or MRAC >> [4] as measured by NYSE or S&P 500 >> [5] as defined by year-to-year depreciation against at least 50 of the >> world's currencies
-----
Yang a.a. #28 a.a. pastor #-273.15, the most frigid church of Celcius nee Kelvin EAC Econometric Forecast and Socerey Division Proudly plonked by Lani Girl and Crazyalec
The Bush 'balanced' budget: -525 billion and worsening The Bush 'economic' policy: -3 million jobs and counting The Bush Iraq lie: -357 GIs, one friend's co-worker's son and mounting
I have to say guys, this was one of the most hilarious string of posts I have seen in a while. Here I am being defended by someone who is obviously not a close follower of Austrian economics from a fellow who claims to be a PHD in economics. Both seem to be totally unaware that Austrians do NOT believe in the concept of a "liquidity trap". Now I can understand why Don doesn't know this but why doesn't Yang the PHD?
Funny thing is that the original post of mine that triggered this was to an article that contained the following paragraph.
Anderson referring to Krugman: "For example, he freely uses the term "liquidity trap," a Keynesian invention, to describe the current situation in Japan. The real problems holding back Japan—the failure of the Japanese state to permit the liquidation of long-malinvested capital—is totally off Krugman's radar screen. (Of course, Japan also tried for a decade to engage in Keynesian "fiscal stimulus" by engaging in huge and expensive public works projects. Today, the nation is left with massive public debt, white elephant projects, and rising unemployment and economic uncertainty.)"
Not only that but the article posted below by Don Kresch is not making the claim that Japan is in a liquidity trap. No, it is dispelling this Keynesian myth. I think this article titled "The liquidity trap myth" should make it quite clear how ridiculous exchange has been:
> >>Well, looks like your rejection has been rejected.
> > No, it hasn't. I asked you for one, and if none was forthcoming, > >I was going to reject it.
> > Maybe you ought to THINK before you type.
> That WAS a citation, you fucking moron. It was published in 1998, his > treatises on Japan were one of the most widely cited papers inside and > outside of academia
> Maybe you ought to stop LYING about your bullshit ideology.
That's funny. I don't think Don ever claimed to be that knowledgeable about Austrian economics. Now you are claiming he is a ideologue. That's strange?
Same sorts of tactics you use on me. The ironic thing is that this is because you are an ideologue who has never bothered to learn the actual economic arguments of the Austrians.
I polished off "What has government done to our money" - Rothbard in a single weekend. Should be no problem for a PHD in economics. It's a classic like "The Selfish Gene". Might do you some good to actually understand the opposition instead of constantly with the ad hominem. Not saying you will fully comprehend. It's just a starter but at least you wouldn't make the enormous faux pas of thinking Austrians believe in the "liquidty trap" fallacy.
Mark Skousken is a good Author to rattle your brain a little on all the economic fallacies still spinning round the universities. See his "Economics on Trial".
I have problems with the Austrian school but not nearly as many as with Keynesian or Monetarists. So I am no ideologue. The cool thing about Austrian economics is that you can follow from individual action, through micro, to macroeconomics. It all fits together as you would expect. Sort of the way chemistry fits with genetics fits with evolution.
The same cannot be said of Keynes. Keynesianism does not integrate. His theories are full of "paradoxes" (read fallacies) like the paradox of thrift. He would have one believe that saving for ones old age is bad for the economy (hurts other people). What complete trash.
Another neat thing about Austrian economics is it properly takes time into account whereas Keynesian theories are based on timeless equilibria.
> >>>> Go ahead go back and > >>>>read up on economic liteterature, take a guess who were some of the > >>>>earliest people that wrote about the presence of the liquidity trap in > >>>>Japan.
> Wow, something written in late 1999, why that would be almost a mere > TWO years after Krugman. Boy, you guys are really on the ball!
So all you do is read the dates on these articles? Didn't you read the article? In a sense Don is still correct in that the Austrians were one of the first to write about it. However their purpose was to debunk the notion. I don't know if Paul Krugman was born yet.
You can do a search of "Liquidity Trap" on the mises.org site and see what else they have to say.
Rothbards book "America's Great Depression" http://www.mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf has a small section on "Liquidity Trap" that touches on Keynesian mistakes in this area.
PS. I've read these books (end to end with comprehension) among others. It's a hobby of mine.
On 31 Oct 2003 16:30:35 -0800, igtheist_N_O_S_P_...@hotmail.com
(Igtheist) wrote: >I polished off "What has government done to our money" - Rothbard in a >single weekend. Should be no problem for a PHD in economics. It's >a classic like "The Selfish Gene". Might do you some good to >actually understand the opposition instead of constantly with the ad >hominem. Not saying you will fully comprehend. It's just a >starter but at least you wouldn't make the enormous faux pas of >thinking Austrians believe in the "liquidty trap" fallacy.
Then you should have no problem putting your money where your muth is right? You made predictions that are contrary to most other economists. So here it is. You can talk the talk, but can you walk the walk.
Oh, and as for your silly attacks on us AEA economists, if you can find any references indicating either I or Alan Greenspan or anyof the 30,000 AEA economists follow strictly Keynes by writ, I would like to see. Afterall, I wouldn't want to think that you're just blowhard who contruct strawman arguments now, would we?
So here is the challenge again. You made these predictions, let's see you back them. Be a man.
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Yang a.a. #28 a.a. pastor #-273.15, the most frigid church of Celcius nee Kelvin EAC Econometric Forecast and Socerey Division Proudly plonked by Lani Girl and Crazyalec
The Bush 'balanced' budget: -525 billion and worsening The Bush 'economic' policy: -3 million jobs and counting The Bush Iraq lie: -357 GIs, one friend's co-worker's son and mounting
> On 31 Oct 2003 16:30:35 -0800, igtheist_N_O_S_P_...@hotmail.com > (Igtheist) wrote:
> >I polished off "What has government done to our money" - Rothbard in a > >single weekend. Should be no problem for a PHD in economics. It's > >a classic like "The Selfish Gene". Might do you some good to > >actually understand the opposition instead of constantly with the ad > >hominem. Not saying you will fully comprehend. It's just a > >starter but at least you wouldn't make the enormous faux pas of > >thinking Austrians believe in the "liquidty trap" fallacy.
> Then you should have no problem putting your money where your muth is > right? You made predictions that are contrary to most other > economists. So here it is. You can talk the talk, but can you walk the > walk.
> Oh, and as for your silly attacks on us AEA economists, if you can > find any references indicating either I or Alan Greenspan or anyof the > 30,000 AEA economists follow strictly Keynes by writ, I would like to > see. Afterall, I wouldn't want to think that you're just blowhard who > contruct strawman arguments now, would we?
Is that your attempt to combine the red herring, appeal to ridicule, straw man, appeal to authority, appeal to popularity, special pleading, middle ground and false dilemma fallacies all in one.
Red herring: This whole bet thing.
Appeal to ridicule: The whole purpose of not posting in my original thread and instead starting a new "Walk the walk" thread. No bet then I "am not a man" thingy.
Staw man: Firstly it is not me against the AEA. I made no blanket attacks against the entire AEA. George Reisman is member of AEA and he's no Keynesian. I am currently reading his Capitalism in my spare time. In fact this thread was spawned by you in reaction to my thread titled "Screw Paul Krugman" was about one particular fellow being a Keynesian. Which he is on many topics. It was not about the AEA.
Appeal to authority & appeal to popularism: "Us AEA economists"
Special Pleading: I didn't commit a straw man fallacy since I have pointed to plenty of evidence that Krugman is a keynesian on many an economic topic. However it is quite clear that you have set up a straw man argument. You see to think that the rules of logic that apply to me do not apply to you. This is the special pleading fallacy.
False dilemma: "if you can find any references indicating either I or Alan Greenspan or anyof the 30,000 AEA economists follow strictly Keynes by writ" I don't need to do any such thing to show that Krugman is making Keynesian errors. I don't have to show that
Middle Ground: Are you making the claim that AEA members are somehow on the middle ground and therefore correct. Not Keynesian extremists so just right. I think this should be called the Goldilocks fallacy. Not to cold but not to hot. Just right.
> So here is the challenge again. You made these predictions, let's see > you back them. Be a man.
WTF? I think the fact that I bought $40000 of silver at $4.80 cents more that backs my belief that precious metals will be rising and the dollar will continue to devalue. It sits in a safe deposit box not earning interest and with a $75 per year fee. There are transaction costs too like shipping when buying and selling. So PM need to go up a lot for me to make money. However I am planning on sitting on that for ten to fifteen years. I don't imagine you will even care or remember about your little bet at that time.
However in the short term I believe we are in a stock and housing bubble. I don't know when the idiocy will end but it will end on the down side. I think that is plenty clear from an Austrian perspective. One cannot counterfeit ones way out of problems. I'd tell you why but from past experience you are not really interested in actual theory and I have to spend too much time on your misquotes, misintepretations, and fallacious attacks.
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