Obama Not Losing Independents
John Manning
Pollster.com - There have been several articles in the last week about
independents deserting the Dems. A good bit of that was spurred by the
huge Rep margins among independents in VA (66-33) and NJ (60-30-9)
governors races. There are also some indications on policy issues that
independents are not supporting Democratic positions.
But support for Obama has not plummeted among independents, and that
needs to be clarified before it becomes erroneous conventional wisdom.
It especially makes no sense to compare independent support in January
with independent support now, and conclude there has been a collapse of
support.
The pattern this fall, since Sept 1, has been quite stable among
independents. Depending on which polls you use, a shade up or a shade
down, but overall, not a huge trend either way over the past 3 months...
There is no evidence that any group of Dems, especially liberal Dems are
unhappy with Obama's performance. Critical is that moderate and even
conservative Dems have not moved away since August.
Angry conservative Reps are indeed very unhappy with Obama, at almost
the same level of disgust as Dems felt for Bush, but they too have
reached a plateau at a steady 10% approval...
So the point is simple: Claims of abandonment of Obama by independents
(or lib-Dems or con-Dems) are substantially exaggerated over the past
three months. Significant decline from May through August, yes indeed
among Inds and Reps, but that trend halted in August.
See poll here:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/obama_and_indepedents.php
Ike E 11/23/9
"John Manning" <jrob...@terra.com.br> wrote in message
news:adadnX2QFfTolZbW...@giganews.com...
>
>
> Pollster.com - There have been several articles in the last week about
> independents deserting the Dems. A good bit of that was spurred by the
> huge Rep margins among independents in VA (66-33) and NJ (60-30-9)
> governors races. There are also some indications on policy issues that
> independents are not supporting Democratic positions.
>
> But support for Obama has not plummeted among independents, and that
> needs to be clarified before it becomes erroneous conventional wisdom.
> It especially makes no sense to compare independent support in January
> with independent support now, and conclude there has been a collapse of
> support.
Oh, really?
Obama's Approval Rating Falls in Iowa Where He Got His First Big Boost
Two Polls Have Obama Below 50 Percent
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/282488
Analysis: Obama's approval rating, who has it right?
"In August President Obama's approval rating among independents stood at a
49-44% approval to disapproval margin. Two polls conducted in September
showed his totals ranging from 51-42% to 46-41%. Then Obama cratered in
early-October, down to a 42-47% split only to rebound considerably late in
the month to 49-34%. Suddenly the President's numbers have plummeted again,
down a startling sixteen-points to his current 34-51% standing in just three
weeks. What gives here? "
Oops.
Ike