John McAdams wrote: > On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush > that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody > else has.
Further comments: This is an extension of Posner's early shot theory and the authors make the same errors in looking at the witness evidence of an early shot as Posner did.
For example, they acknowledge that TE Moore was a very good witness pointing to a 1998 interview in which he said that JFK was opposite a highway marker. They interpret that, as did Posner, as a reference to a signpost in the concrete at the corner almost in front of the front door of the TSBD. There are two problems with this because Moore gave a statement on January 10, 1964 to the FBI saying that the sign was the Thorton Freeway sign (which the president is opposite at around z200-205), AND Moore said that JFK appeared to be hit by the shot! The statement reads:
So not only is this not an early shot, it was not a miss! (Many others put the first shot in that same location and said JFK reacted to it, so Moore's statement fits with the rest of the witness evidence).
They ignore Betzner's evidence that the first shot occurred just after his z186 shot, Phil Willis' evidence that it occurred at the instant of his z202 shot or that Zapruder said the first shot occurred as the car was about half way down from the corner to where he was. Connally said it was about 150-200 feet down Elm. All the witnesses in the VP car said they had turned the corner and were going down Elm. The car is still turning at z180 and isn't even at the corner when these authors say the first shot occurred. All occupants of the VP follow-up car say it occurred when their car was in its turn. It is still on Houston in z160 let alone z107. And they ignore the fact that at least 16 witnesses said that JFK reacted to the first shot by moving left and/or slumping forward or bringing his hands to his neck while none said they observed that he kept on waving as we see in the zfilm from z133 to z204.
But they got the shot pattern evidence right, so I can't be too hard on these guys.
John McAdams wrote: > On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush > that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody > else has.
Now this is interesting. He posits this theory because believes so many witnesses can't possibly be mistaken about the shot pattern. And of course he is right about what this means to the first shot if there was a shot at z224. If there was a shot at z224 the first shot had to be before Zapruder started filming the limo, which I have said many times!! - its just math. My point is that that conclusion is not tenable so the shot at z224 has to be reassessed. Besides, 4 seconds (224-313) is hardly "rapid succession" as many recalled.
Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's "first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have occurred approx. 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
"We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right shoulder."
~~~~~~~
In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the same as "just {after making} the turn". It's a subjective thing I suppose.
Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with that shot.
Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly-lengthy delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many CTers believe) equates to a still- too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
Plus, any type of "first shot hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and waving in the Z180s.
My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at approx. Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the window.
IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that he had every intention from the get-go of ONLY shooting at the President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes sense from the standpoint that the SS agents would, by that time, all have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very difficult.
Plus: What about Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed to also double as the Tague shot?
I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit James Tague by the Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even penetrate).
I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on Tague's cheek.
I don't completely rule out that possibility....but I favor the "first- shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the long run to me. YMMV.
Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the official WC Exhibit (CE886; linked below) doesn't seem to show any obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture had been snapped a second or so on either side of this "A" position in CE886, perhaps the "traffic pole" would be in the picture. .....
Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way (obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the SS album of photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
Several problems are not addressed in the article.
1. One major problem being "other" photos/film footage*, that shows the limo at the same point (as indicated by article, of the limo) and the 6th floor window, which does NOT show a "shooter" in the 6th floor window.
*I do not know off hand the film and photos........by "name" but I'm sure those who have studied the available material can provide the examples.
The article avoids any mention of these other photos or films.
2. Due to the trajectory need to fire a shot at this point the shooter would be exposed, the rifle extending outside* of the window between the boxes and the window edge.
*Take a look at the tripod mounted camera rifle photo, used for the recreation sequence and traverse the barrel to face the "sign post/limo" at this point and about half of the rifle would be extended outside the window.
Exam of all photos and films taken and examined do not show any object that remotely resembles the muzzle of the rifle extending outside the window.
See Hughes study by HSCA as the major effort to consider the rifles muzzle position.
3. Position A.........is only a starting point for ALL possible shooting sequences.
There has to be a starting point for all sequence considerations.
4. There is NO physical evidence supporting this as being the first shot position. Photographic evidence counters the consideration of a shooter firing at this time.
5. A shot fired at this time would require major adjustment by the shooter to re-position himself for the second and third shots.
6. The conflict surrounding the two large fragments* recovered from the limo, along with CE 399, has a major impact on the consideration of ANY MISSED SHOT.
One has to prove beyond any and all doubt that the nose fragment and the base fragment recovered are the same bullet, for any missed shot consideration.
No mention of this conflict is included in the article. That conflict needs to be resolved before any consideration of a missed shot can be made.
"John McAdams" <john.mcad...@marquette.edu> wrote in message news:45d6a17b.17575687@mcadams.posc.mu.edu... > On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush > that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody > else has.
>> On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush >> that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody >> else has.
>> The Kennedy Assassination Home Page >> http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/home.htm > Now this is interesting. He posits this theory because believes so many > witnesses can't possibly be mistaken about the shot pattern. And of > course he is right about what this means to the first shot if there was > a shot at z224. If there was a shot at z224 the first shot had to be > before Zapruder started filming the limo, which I have said many times!!
> - its just math. My point is that that conclusion is not tenable so the > shot at z224 has to be reassessed. Besides, 4 seconds (224-313) is > hardly "rapid succession" as many recalled.
John McAdams wrote: > On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush > that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody > else has.
> Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's > "first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have > occurred approx. 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
> "We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how > far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the > turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise > which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to > my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right > shoulder."
> ~~~~~~~
> In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just > made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although > Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the > same as "just {after making} the turn". It's a subjective thing I > suppose.
> Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the > Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the > many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw > his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with > that shot.
> Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly-lengthy > delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, > a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many CTers believe) equates to a still- > too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
> Plus, any type of "first shot hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 > seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine > some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly > impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK > has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and > waving in the Z180s.
> My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot > timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's > "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction > of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at > approx. Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" > manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the > window.
> IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that > he had every intention from the get-go of ONLY shooting at the > President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes > sense from the standpoint that the SS agents would, by that time, all > have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very > difficult.
> Plus: What about Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed > to also double as the Tague shot?
> I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit > James Tague by the Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that > theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it > reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even > penetrate).
> I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough > energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on > Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on > Tague's cheek.
> I don't completely rule out that possibility....but I favor the "first- > shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the > long run to me. YMMV.
> Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the > official WC Exhibit (CE886; linked below) doesn't seem to show any > obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture > had been snapped a second or so on either side of this "A" position in > CE886, perhaps the "traffic pole" would be in the picture. .....
> Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way > (obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the > intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the SS album of > photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
Imagine this as being the presidential limo, with the Secret Service follow car right behind. The follow car would have been seemingly beside the wall of the reflecting pool. This would likely have been the point at which or moment just after which Oswald would likely have felt it safe to position himself to fire at the limo.
>From this point, at the speed at which the limo was traveling, would
JFK been behind the tree? Would it have been practical that he be ready to take a shot prior to the tree?
As for the shard that hit Mr. Tague, no one has bothered to do a test of ricochetting bullets off a street at assumed angles that a missed first shot or missed second shot would likely have hit the pavement or a tree branch, then the pavement. Would such a bullet fragment? If so, in what manner?
> Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's > "first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have > occurred approx. 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
> "We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how > far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the > turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise > which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to > my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right > shoulder."
> ~~~~~~~
> In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just > made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although > Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the > same as "just {after making} the turn". It's a subjective thing I > suppose.
> Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the > Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the > many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw > his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with > that shot.
> Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly-lengthy > delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, > a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many CTers believe) equates to a still- > too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
> Plus, any type of "first shot hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 > seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine > some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly > impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK > has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and > waving in the Z180s.
> My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot > timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's > "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction > of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at > approx. Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" > manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the > window.
> IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that > he had every intention from the get-go of ONLY shooting at the > President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes > sense from the standpoint that the SS agents would, by that time, all > have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very > difficult.
> Plus: What about Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed > to also double as the Tague shot?
> I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit > James Tague by the Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that > theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it > reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even > penetrate).
> I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough > energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on > Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on > Tague's cheek.
> I don't completely rule out that possibility....but I favor the "first- > shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the > long run to me. YMMV.
> Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the > official WC Exhibit (CE886; linked below) doesn't seem to show any > obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture > had been snapped a second or so on either side of this "A" position in > CE886, perhaps the "traffic pole" would be in the picture. .....
> Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way > (obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the > intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the SS album of > photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
" My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot " End .......
This is the only time that he made a quick turn of his head and as he remembers it correctely , at or around Z-160 , any shot before this would mean that Oswald had actually fired 4 shots and that is not very probable . .........tl
> Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's > "first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have > occurred approx. 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
> "We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how > far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the > turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise > which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to > my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right > shoulder."
> ~~~~~~~
> In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just > made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although > Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the > same as "just {after making} the turn". It's a subjective thing I > suppose.
This is a point the Posner overlooks as well. 150 feet down Elm is a long way past Point A,
But one thing that these authors miss is that the limo was never in position A. If you look at the reconstruction, the photo of the limo at position A is not in the centre lane. All the cars turn in the centre lane as we can see the VP and VP follow-up car doing in the zfilm. This view from the SN never occurred! http://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh18/html/WH_Vol...
> Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the > Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the > many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw > his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with > that shot.
> Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly-lengthy > delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, > a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many CTers believe) equates to a still- > too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
> Plus, any type of "first shot hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 > seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine > some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly > impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK > has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and > waving in the Z180s.
> My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot > timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's > "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction > of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at > approx. Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" > manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the > window.
But that does not solve the problem of the shot pattern which these authors are quite convinced was real.
> IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that > he had every intention from the get-go of ONLY shooting at the > President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes > sense from the standpoint that the SS agents would, by that time, all > have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very > difficult.
Good point. At that point, the follow-up car would be facing the TSBD and he would have 8 agents looking right at him.
> Plus: What about Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed > to also double as the Tague shot?
> I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit > James Tague by the Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that > theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it > reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even > penetrate).
How can we be sure it was a large fragment that hit the windshield?
> I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough > energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on > Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on > Tague's cheek.
The curb was not chipped, according to the FBI report on the curb which refers to it as a mark. So what Tague felt must have been a bullet fragment that bounced off the curb. That would not have much energy.
> I don't completely rule out that possibility....but I favor the "first- > shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the > long run to me. YMMV.
> Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the > official WC Exhibit (CE886; linked below) doesn't seem to show any > obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture > had been snapped a second or so on either side of this "A" position in > CE886, perhaps the "traffic pole" would be in the picture. .....
> Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way > (obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the > intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the SS album of > photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
On Feb 16, 10:33 pm, john.mcad...@marquette.edu (John McAdams) wrote:
> On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush > that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody > else has.
<<<<Several agents in the Secret Service car tail-gating the presidential limousine made remarkably similar observations. "As we completed the left turn and on a short distance, there was a shot," recalled agent Samuel Kinney, driver of the follow-up Cadillac, in his written account. 18 "Just prior to the shooting the presidential car turned left at the intersection and started down an incline . . . . After a very short distance I heard a loud report which sounded like a firecracker," wrote agent George Hickey. 19 The "president's car and the follow-up car had just completed their turns and both were straightening out," wrote agent Paul Landis in his November 1963 report. "At this moment I heard what sounded like the report of a high- powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder."20
Contacted just a few days ago, Paul Landis reiterated his clear recollection that the first shot occurred before the presidential limousine had traveled very far down Elm.21 No one's memory was more exacting, though, than that of T.E. Moore, a Dallas County clerk who was standing on Elm Street. As Moore recalled in Larry Sneed's outstanding book No More Silence, a 1998 compilation of oral histories about the assassination, "There was a highway marker sign right in front of the Book Depository, and as the president got around to that, the first shot was fired." >>>>
Both these agents stated in their written report, that they turned to the rear after hearing the first shot. In the Algens photo, both an be seen looking to the rear, but in the Zapruder film, neither can be seen looking back up Elm street, or in the process of doing so. The recollection that they had just completed the turn onto Elm, before hearing the first shot, is likely incorrect. In addition, at least one of the agents in Johnson's Secret Service follow car said that they had just completed the turn onto Elm when the first shot rang out. That would place the Presidential limo further down the street than the above agents comments would indicate.
Zapruder said that he heard a shot and saw President Kennedy slump over to his left. He did not say that he heard a shot before he began filming the presidential limo on Elm or that he heard a second shot and saw President Kennedy slump over to his left.
cdddraftsman wrote: > On Feb 17, 6:54 am, "David Von Pein" <davevonp...@aol.com> wrote:
>>An interesting theory.
>>Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's >>"first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have >>occurred approx. 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
>>"We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how >>far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the >>turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise >>which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to >>my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right >>shoulder."
>>~~~~~~~
>>In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just >>made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although >>Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the >>same as "just {after making} the turn". It's a subjective thing I >>suppose.
>>Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the >>Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the >>many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw >>his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with >>that shot.
>>Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly-lengthy >>delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, >>a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many CTers believe) equates to a still- >>too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
>>Plus, any type of "first shot hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 >>seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine >>some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly >>impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK >>has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and >>waving in the Z180s.
>>My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot >>timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's >>"immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction >>of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at >>approx. Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" >>manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the >>window.
>>IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that >>he had every intention from the get-go of ONLY shooting at the >>President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes >>sense from the standpoint that the SS agents would, by that time, all >>have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very >>difficult.
>>Plus: What about Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed >>to also double as the Tague shot?
>>I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit >>James Tague by the Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that >>theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it >>reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even >>penetrate).
>>I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough >>energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on >>Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on >>Tague's cheek.
>>I don't completely rule out that possibility....but I favor the "first- >>shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the >>long run to me. YMMV.
>>Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the >>official WC Exhibit (CE886; linked below) doesn't seem to show any >>obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture >>had been snapped a second or so on either side of this "A" position in >>CE886, perhaps the "traffic pole" would be in the picture. .....
>>Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way >>(obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the >>intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the SS album of >>photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
> " My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 > first-shot timeline is closer to being correct -- based on > Connally's "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle > shot and his reaction of "instinctively" turning to his right > as a result of this shot " > End .......
Unfortunately, cases are not solved by gut instinct. They are solved by examining the evidence, which is what these authors tried to do. They concluded that the first shot must have been at virtual frame z107 (ie 26/18.3ths seconds before Z started filming) because the shot pattern evidence necessitates a shot that early if the second shot was at z224.
They concluded that the shot pattern evidence could not possibly be all wrong. But they just couldn't let go of a shot at z224. That is their mistake.
There is as much evidence for a shot at z107 as there is for one at z224, and there is a lot of evidence against both, if one cares to look at the evidence.
On Feb 16, 10:33 pm, john.mcad...@marquette.edu (John McAdams) wrote:
> On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush > that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody > else has.
Holland's theory is one of the most embarrassingly foolish ever presented, CT or LNT. EVERY witness in the area of his proposed first shot, as well as many to the west of this location, stated that the limo had passed them when the first shot rang out. Question: will his fellow single-assassin theorists refute his nonsense, so they don't get lumped in with his silliness, as CTS like Josiah Thompson and Robert Groden were forced to do when their fellow CTs jumped on the alteration train? Or will they just let it rest, and pretend that Holland's credible, when he's clearly willing to believe ANYTHING short of the obvious truth that the earwitness statements, when studied with the Zapruder film, suggests a conspiracy
pjspe...@AOL.COM wrote: > On Feb 16, 10:33 pm, john.mcad...@marquette.edu (John McAdams) wrote:
>>On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush >>that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody >>else has.
> Holland's theory is one of the most embarrassingly foolish ever presented, > CT or LNT. EVERY witness in the area of his proposed first shot, as well > as many to the west of this location, stated that the limo had passed them > when the first shot rang out. Question: will his fellow single-assassin > theorists refute his nonsense, so they don't get lumped in with his > silliness, as CTS like Josiah Thompson and Robert Groden were forced to do > when their fellow CTs jumped on the alteration train? Or will they just > let it rest, and pretend that Holland's credible, when he's clearly > willing to believe ANYTHING short of the obvious truth that the earwitness > statements, when studied with the Zapruder film, suggests a conspiracy
As an LNer I would certainly distance myself from any suggestion of an early first shot miss. But I don't see anything about this theory that is any less supported than the early first shot miss of Posner. The LN hypothesis of a first shot miss provides fertile ground for CTers, for sure. But that is only if JBC was hit in the back by a second shot before z240 and, according to the evidence that didn't occur. So the demise of the SBT does not imply a second shooter at all.
Another thing that doesn't bode well for the very early first shot is when we compare the following two pictures (and the reactions of the SS men). In the Phil Willis slide....no SS men are turned toward the TSBD in reaction to hearing a shot. In Jim Altgens' photo, two SS men are turned directly toward the TSBD.
Altgens equates to about Z255, after the second (SBT) shot has gone through both victims. I think Willis' pic equates to Z202, which would be 5.17 seconds after any proposed "traffic pole" shot, and yet there's not a sign of "awareness" of this shot by the SS. That's a pretty lengthy delay. .....
Andrew, wouldn't a shot as early as 133-150 mean that all the Secret Service agents would have to watch and listen to shots being fired for nearly 10 seconds with out responding? I just can't believe this to be possible! Hang-over or not. Greer hears something, a shot? Looks back and sees the President in some sort of duress. Then after having had nearly 10 seconds to contemplate his actions, heroically STEPS ON THE BRAKES! That dog won't hunt.
Thanks
Sammy, G.
Thanks Sammy, G.
"Andrew Mason" <a.ma...@dufourlaw.com> wrote in message
>> On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush >> that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody >> else has.
>> .John >> The Kennedy Assassination Home Page >> http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/home.htm > Now this is interesting. He posits this theory because believes so many > witnesses can't possibly be mistaken about the shot pattern. And of course > he is right about what this means to the first shot if there was a shot at > z224. If there was a shot at z224 the first shot had to be before Zapruder > started filming the limo, which I have said many times!! - its just math. > My point is that that conclusion is not tenable so the shot at z224 has to > be reassessed. Besides, 4 seconds (224-313) is hardly "rapid succession" > as many recalled.
Well if DVP is right, it's to bad JBC wasn't driving the limo. JBC said he recognized the sound as a shot almost immediately. It took Greer nearly 10 more seconds just to hit the brakes. SHEESH
Thanks
Sammy, G.
"cdddraftsman" <cdddrafts...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
> On Feb 17, 6:54 am, "David Von Pein" <davevonp...@aol.com> wrote: >> An interesting theory.
>> Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's >> "first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have >> occurred approx. 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
>> "We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how >> far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the >> turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise >> which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to >> my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right >> shoulder."
>> ~~~~~~~
>> In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just >> made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although >> Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the >> same as "just {after making} the turn". It's a subjective thing I >> suppose.
>> Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the >> Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the >> many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw >> his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with >> that shot.
>> Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly-lengthy >> delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, >> a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many CTers believe) equates to a still- >> too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
>> Plus, any type of "first shot hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 >> seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine >> some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly >> impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK >> has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and >> waving in the Z180s.
>> My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot >> timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's >> "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction >> of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at >> approx. Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" >> manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the >> window.
>> IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that >> he had every intention from the get-go of ONLY shooting at the >> President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes >> sense from the standpoint that the SS agents would, by that time, all >> have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very >> difficult.
>> Plus: What about Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed >> to also double as the Tague shot?
>> I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit >> James Tague by the Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that >> theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it >> reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even >> penetrate).
>> I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough >> energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on >> Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on >> Tague's cheek.
>> I don't completely rule out that possibility....but I favor the "first- >> shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the >> long run to me. YMMV.
>> Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the >> official WC Exhibit (CE886; linked below) doesn't seem to show any >> obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture >> had been snapped a second or so on either side of this "A" position in >> CE886, perhaps the "traffic pole" would be in the picture. .....
>> Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way >> (obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the >> intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the SS album of >> photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
> " My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 > first-shot timeline is closer to being correct -- based on > Connally's "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle > shot and his reaction of "instinctively" turning to his right > as a result of this shot " > End .......
> This is the only time that he made a quick turn of his head > and as he remembers it correctely , at or around Z-160 , > any shot before this would mean that Oswald had actually > fired 4 shots and that is not very probable . .........tl
> cdddraftsman wrote: > > On Feb 17, 6:54 am, "David Von Pein" <davevonp...@aol.com> wrote:
> >>An interesting theory.
> >>Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's > >>"first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have > >>occurred approx. 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
> >>"We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how > >>far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the > >>turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise > >>which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to > >>my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right > >>shoulder."
> >>~~~~~~~
> >>In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just > >>made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although > >>Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the > >>same as "just {after making} the turn". It's a subjective thing I > >>suppose.
> >>Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the > >>Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the > >>many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw > >>his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with > >>that shot.
> >>Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly-lengthy > >>delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, > >>a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many CTers believe) equates to a still- > >>too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
> >>Plus, any type of "first shot hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 > >>seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine > >>some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly > >>impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK > >>has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and > >>waving in the Z180s.
> >>My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot > >>timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's > >>"immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction > >>of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at > >>approx. Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" > >>manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the > >>window.
> >>IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that > >>he had every intention from the get-go of ONLY shooting at the > >>President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes > >>sense from the standpoint that the SS agents would, by that time, all > >>have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very > >>difficult.
> >>Plus: What about Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed > >>to also double as the Tague shot?
> >>I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit > >>James Tague by the Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that > >>theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it > >>reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even > >>penetrate).
> >>I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough > >>energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on > >>Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on > >>Tague's cheek.
> >>I don't completely rule out that possibility....but I favor the "first- > >>shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the > >>long run to me. YMMV.
> >>Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the > >>official WC Exhibit (CE886; linked below) doesn't seem to show any > >>obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture > >>had been snapped a second or so on either side of this "A" position in > >>CE886, perhaps the "traffic pole" would be in the picture. .....
> >>Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way > >>(obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the > >>intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the SS album of > >>photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
> > " My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 > > first-shot timeline is closer to being correct -- based on > > Connally's "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle > > shot and his reaction of "instinctively" turning to his right > > as a result of this shot " > > End .......
> Unfortunately, cases are not solved by gut instinct. They are solved by > examining the evidence, which is what these authors tried to do. They > concluded that the first shot must have been at virtual frame z107 (ie > 26/18.3ths seconds before Z started filming) because the shot pattern > evidence necessitates a shot that early if the second shot was at z224.
> They concluded that the shot pattern evidence could not possibly be all > wrong. But they just couldn't let go of a shot at z224. That is their > mistake.
> There is as much evidence for a shot at z107 as there is for one at z224, > and there is a lot of evidence against both, if one cares to look at the > evidence.
> Andrew Mason- Hide quoted text -
***There is plenty of evidence for a shot at Circa Z224. The expression on Connally's face changed. The movement of his jacket. The jumping of his right arm during the immediate frames following Z224. The violent movement of his torso during that time. The look of shock on JFK's face at Z225. The simultaneous arm movements of both men. The sudden rapid movement of 2 men, who moments before had been sitting passively.
David Von Pein wrote: > Another thing that doesn't bode well for the very early first shot is > when we compare the following two pictures (and the reactions of the > SS men). In the Phil Willis slide....no SS men are turned toward the > TSBD in reaction to hearing a shot. In Jim Altgens' photo, two SS men > are turned directly toward the TSBD.
> Altgens equates to about Z255, after the second (SBT) shot has gone > through both victims. ]
Altgens said it was after the first shot and before any other. I don't see the SS men in the followup car turning around before the limo passes behind the Stemmons sign.
>I think Willis' pic equates to Z202, which would > be 5.17 seconds after any proposed "traffic pole" shot, and yet > there's not a sign of "awareness" of this shot by the SS. That's a > pretty lengthy delay. .....
Especially when Paul Landis standing on the right rear running board of the follow-up car said upon hearing the first shot he immediately glanced at the president and saw him lean and then looked back and scanned the TSBD and crowd and looked down at the tires of the president's car before any other shot. You can't see him look back at all before z207 but you sure see him looking back and to the right in the Altgens photo.
Also, you can see SA Rufus Youngblood riding in the front right seat of the VP car right in front of LBJ climbing on top of LBJ (you can see Ladybird but not LBJ). Here is what Youngblood said:
Mr. SPECTER. Yes, please. Will you describe just what occurred as the motorcade proceeded past the intersection of Houston and Elm Streets?
Mr. YOUNGBLOOD. Well, the crowd had begun to diminish, looking ahead and to the right the crowd became spotty. I mean it wasn’t continuous at all, like it had been. As we were beginning to go down this incline, all of a sudden There was an explosive noise. I quickly observed unnatural movement of crowds, like ducking or scattering, and quick movements in the Presidential followup car. So I turned around and hit the Vice President on the shoulder and hollered, get down, and then looked around again and saw more of this movement, and so I proceeded to go to the back seat and get on top of him.
I then heard two more shots. But I would like to say this. I would not be positive that I was back on that back seat before the second shot. But the Vice President himself said I was. But-then in hearing these two more shots, I again had seen more movement, and I think someone else hit a siren-I heard the noise of a siren.
If he was on top of LBJ by the time of the second shot, Altgens photo must have been taken, just as he said, after the first and before any other shot.
Sammy, G. wrote: > Andrew, wouldn't a shot as early as 133-150 mean that all the Secret Service > agents would have to watch and listen to shots being fired for nearly 10 > seconds with out responding? I just can't believe this to be possible! > Hang-over or not. > Greer hears something, a shot? Looks back and sees the President in some > sort of duress. Then after having had nearly 10 seconds to contemplate his > actions, heroically STEPS ON THE BRAKES! > That dog won't hunt.
> Thanks
> Sammy, G.
Sammy, see my previous post on the Re: 1963: 11 Seconds in Dallas thread. There is a lot of evidence it doesn't fit with.
> pjspe...@AOL.COM wrote: > > On Feb 16, 10:33 pm, john.mcad...@marquette.edu (John McAdams) wrote:
> >>On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush > >>that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody > >>else has.
> > Holland's theory is one of the most embarrassingly foolish ever presented, > > CT or LNT. EVERY witness in the area of his proposed first shot, as well > > as many to the west of this location, stated that the limo had passed them > > when the first shot rang out. Question: will his fellow single-assassin > > theorists refute his nonsense, so they don't get lumped in with his > > silliness, as CTS like Josiah Thompson and Robert Groden were forced to do > > when their fellow CTs jumped on the alteration train? Or will they just > > let it rest, and pretend that Holland's credible, when he's clearly > > willing to believe ANYTHING short of the obvious truth that the earwitness > > statements, when studied with the Zapruder film, suggests a conspiracy
> As an LNer I would certainly distance myself from any suggestion of an > early first shot miss. But I don't see anything about this theory that > is any less supported than the early first shot miss of Posner. The LN > hypothesis of a first shot miss provides fertile ground for CTers, for > sure. But that is only if JBC was hit in the back by a second shot > before z240 and, according to the evidence that didn't occur. So the > demise of the SBT does not imply a second shooter at all.
> Andrew Mason
Holland has to ignore 90% of the witness statements to come up with his foolish theory. LBJ, Ladybird, Yarborough, etc. all said they were heading down Elm when the first shot was fired... In Holland's world they would be in the turn.
Sammy, G. wrote: > Well if DVP is right, it's to bad JBC wasn't driving the limo. JBC said he > recognized the sound as a shot almost immediately. It took Greer nearly 10 > more seconds just to hit the brakes. SHEESH
Is that a typo? You meant to say hit the gas? Some people claim he hit the brakes within 5 seconds.
>>> Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's >>> "first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have >>> occurred approx. 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
>>> "We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how >>> far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the >>> turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise >>> which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to >>> my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right >>> shoulder."
>>> ~~~~~~~
>>> In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just >>> made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although >>> Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the >>> same as "just {after making} the turn". It's a subjective thing I >>> suppose.
>>> Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the >>> Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the >>> many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw >>> his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with >>> that shot.
>>> Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly-lengthy >>> delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, >>> a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many CTers believe) equates to a still- >>> too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
>>> Plus, any type of "first shot hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 >>> seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine >>> some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly >>> impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK >>> has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and >>> waving in the Z180s.
>>> My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot >>> timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's >>> "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction >>> of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at >>> approx. Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" >>> manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the >>> window.
>>> IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that >>> he had every intention from the get-go of ONLY shooting at the >>> President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes >>> sense from the standpoint that the SS agents would, by that time, all >>> have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very >>> difficult.
>>> Plus: What about Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed >>> to also double as the Tague shot?
>>> I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit >>> James Tague by the Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that >>> theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it >>> reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even >>> penetrate).
>>> I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough >>> energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on >>> Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on >>> Tague's cheek.
>>> I don't completely rule out that possibility....but I favor the "first- >>> shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the >>> long run to me. YMMV.
>>> Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the >>> official WC Exhibit (CE886; linked below) doesn't seem to show any >>> obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture >>> had been snapped a second or so on either side of this "A" position in >>> CE886, perhaps the "traffic pole" would be in the picture. .....
>>> Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way >>> (obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the >>> intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the SS album of >>> photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
>> " My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 >> first-shot timeline is closer to being correct -- based on >> Connally's "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle >> shot and his reaction of "instinctively" turning to his right >> as a result of this shot " >> End .......
>> This is the only time that he made a quick turn of his head >> and as he remembers it correctely , at or around Z-160 , >> any shot before this would mean that Oswald had actually >> fired 4 shots and that is not very probable . .........tl
Sammy, G. wrote: > Andrew, wouldn't a shot as early as 133-150 mean that all the Secret Service > agents would have to watch and listen to shots being fired for nearly 10 > seconds with out responding? I just can't believe this to be possible! > Hang-over or not.
They reacted. Almost immediately. But they could not locate the shooter behind them.
> Greer hears something, a shot? Looks back and sees the President in some > sort of duress. Then after having had nearly 10 seconds to contemplate his > actions, heroically STEPS ON THE BRAKES!
>>> On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush >>> that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much *earlier* than anybody >>> else has.
>>> .John >>> The Kennedy Assassination Home Page >>> http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/home.htm >> Now this is interesting. He posits this theory because believes so many >> witnesses can't possibly be mistaken about the shot pattern. And of course >> he is right about what this means to the first shot if there was a shot at >> z224. If there was a shot at z224 the first shot had to be before Zapruder >> started filming the limo, which I have said many times!! - its just math. >> My point is that that conclusion is not tenable so the shot at z224 has to >> be reassessed. Besides, 4 seconds (224-313) is hardly "rapid succession" >> as many recalled.
BTW my friend James Tague who lives near me thinks there was a shot after the head shot.. I have personally gone to the exact spot where Tague was standing and I promise, the first shot miss theory makes sense from Tague's position. It's **DEAD-ON** A perfect straight trajectory to where Tague was standing for what that's worth.. I personally think (And my MOS in the Army was "Gunner") that while Oswald was tracking Kennedy for the first shot the tree interrupted his view at the precise moment he decided to squeeze off a round. A tree deflection or an instant of apprehension on the part of Oswald as he suddenly saw the tree, are both possibilities. But Connally's abrupt head to the right at circa 158-160 (if I recall correctly) is solid evidence for that scenario.
Ed 1926Feb1807
On Feb 17, 8:54 am, "David Von Pein" <davevonp...@aol.com> wrote:
> Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's > "first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have > occurred approx. 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
> "We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how > far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the > turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise > which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to > my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right > shoulder."
> ~~~~~~~
> In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just > made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although > Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the > same as "just {after making} the turn". It's a subjective thing I > suppose.
> Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the > Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the > many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw > his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with > that shot.
> Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly-lengthy > delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, > a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many CTers believe) equates to a still- > too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
> Plus, any type of "first shot hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 > seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine > some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly > impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK > has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and > waving in the Z180s.
> My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot > timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's > "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction > of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at > approx. Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" > manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the > window.
> IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that > he had every intention from the get-go of ONLY shooting at the > President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes > sense from the standpoint that the SS agents would, by that time, all > have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very > difficult.
> Plus: What about Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed > to also double as the Tague shot?
> I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit > James Tague by the Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that > theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it > reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even > penetrate).
> I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough > energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on > Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on > Tague's cheek.
> I don't completely rule out that possibility....but I favor the "first- > shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the > long run to me. YMMV.
> Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the > official WC Exhibit (CE886; linked below) doesn't seem to show any > obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture > had been snapped a second or so on either side of this "A" position in > CE886, perhaps the "traffic pole" would be in the picture. .....
> Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way > (obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the > intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the SS album of > photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
BTW my friend James Tague who lives near me thinks there was a shot after the head shot.. I have personally gone to the exact spot where Tague was standing and I promise, the first shot miss theory makes sense from Tague's position. It's **DEAD-ON** A perfect straight trajectory to where Tague was standing for what that's worth.. I personally think (And my MOS in the Army was "Gunner") that while Oswald was tracking Kennedy for the first shot the tree interrupted his view at the precise moment he decided to squeeze off a round. A tree deflection or an instant of apprehension on the part of Oswald as he suddenly saw the tree, are both possibilities. But Connally's abrupt head to the right at circa 158-160 (if I recall correctly) is solid evidence for that scenario.
Ed 1926Feb1807
On Feb 17, 8:54 am, "David Von Pein" <davevonp...@aol.com> wrote:
> Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's > "first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have > occurred approx. 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
> "We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how > far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the > turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise > which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to > my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right > shoulder."
> ~~~~~~~
> In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just > made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although > Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the > same as "just {after making} the turn". It's a subjective thing I > suppose.
> Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the > Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the > many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw > his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with > that shot.
> Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly-lengthy > delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, > a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many CTers believe) equates to a still- > too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
> Plus, any type of "first shot hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 > seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine > some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly > impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK > has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and > waving in the Z180s.
> My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot > timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's > "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction > of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at > approx. Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" > manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the > window.
> IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that > he had every intention from the get-go of ONLY shooting at the > President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes > sense from the standpoint that the SS agents would, by that time, all > have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very > difficult.
> Plus: What about Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed > to also double as the Tague shot?
> I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit > James Tague by the Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that > theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it > reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even > penetrate).
> I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough > energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on > Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on > Tague's cheek.
> I don't completely rule out that possibility....but I favor the "first- > shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the > long run to me. YMMV.
> Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the > official WC Exhibit (CE886; linked below) doesn't seem to show any > obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture > had been snapped a second or so on either side of this "A" position in > CE886, perhaps the "traffic pole" would be in the picture. .....
> Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way > (obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the > intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the SS album of > photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
