> Headline:  Unsteady Guatemalan peace
> Byline:    Hugh Byrne
> Date:      10/19/1999

> It is a powerful symbol of the challenges facing Guatemala three years
> after the signing of a historic peace agreement that the leading candidate
> in next month's presidential elections has not just admitted that he
> killed - in what he calls self-defense - two people in Mexico in 1982 and
> fled from the law but is also using the killings in his campaign to
> demonstrate his courage and toughness. He declares: "A man who can defend
> his own life can defend yours."
> The past deeds of Alfonso Portillo, candidate of the Guatemalan Republican
> Front of former dictator Gen. Efrain Rios Montt, symbolize the impunity
> still dominant in Guatemala. Earlier this year, a UN-sponsored truth
> commission reported that more than 200,000 people had been killed or
> disappeared in the country's 36-year armed conflict and that state forces
> were responsible for 93 percent of the rights violations.
> President Alvaro Arzu; is leaving to his successor the hot potato of how
> to deal with the commission's recommendations. Victims of human rights
> violations haven't fared better in the courts. Despite evidence that the
> murder of Roman Catholic Bishop Juan Gerardi last year was a political
> crime, the killing remains unsolved, and the prosecutor recently fled
> Guatemala because of death threats. Other notorious human rights crimes
> are bogged down in court, or the accused have received dubious acquittals.
> Three years into Guatemala's peace process, the justice system is marked
> by "inefficiency, incompetence, corruption, influence trafficking, and
> cronyism," according to a recent UN investigation. A program to build a
> new civilian police force is deeply flawed and there are dangers the new
> force could follow in the footsteps of its corrupt, brutal, and
> ineffective predecessors. The military has been downsized but still wields
> excessive influence, and elements of it have been linked to drug
> trafficking and political crimes.
> There have been advances, particularly improved human rights and the
> increased participation of women and indigenous people in the political
> process. But 80 percent of the people live in poverty, and crime is
> pervasive. Most Guatemalans don't identify with their nation's peace
> process and don't feel it has benefited them, as was shown in the May
> defeat of constitutional reforms that would have institutionalized key
> elements of the peace accords.
> The choice in the November national elections isn't inspiring for
> supporters of Guatemala's peace process. Mr. Portillo, the front-runner,
> leads an eclectic grouping - but one strongly influenced by Rios Montt and
> former paramilitaries. No one can predict what a Portillo government would
> do, but the links to the general, who presided over the worst period of
> atrocities (the early 1980s), is chilling.
> Oscar Berger, outgoing mayor of Guatemala City and candidate of the ruling
> National Advancement Party, is cast from a wealthy elite mold similar to
> Mr. Arzu's. Unlike Arzu;, however, Mr. Berger isn't identified with the
> peace process. He's expected to place greater emphasis on orthodox
> economic growth policies than on social and fiscal policies.
> The left coalition shot itself in the foot early in the campaign with a
> schism linked more to power and personalities than differences over vision
> and strategy. The Alliance for a New Nation, led by Alvaro Colom and
> including the former guerrillas, is not expected to come close to winning
> power. But the left is the main voice supporting the peace accords and
> could wield the balance of power if elections go to a second round in
> December.
> The other important player in Guatemala is the international community.
> Though donors and other supporters of the peace process will avoid
> interfering in the elections, they should be clear that continued economic
> support will depend on carrying out the peace agreements - whoever wins.
> The major donors - including the US and international development banks -
> have committed $2 billion to support the peace process. They must follow
> closely UN assessments of compliance with the peace accords and condition
> aid to implementation of the peace agreements.
> A crucial test of the new government will be the steps it takes to carry
> out the recommendations of the truth commission. Without truth about the
> past and compensation to victims of rights violations, Guatemala's
> ambitious democratization, peace, and reconciliation are on shaky ground.
> *Hugh Byrne is a senior associate at the Washington Office on Latin
> America.

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