Economy First Cut: Inflation - Inflation rises again on galloping food prices...

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۞ Allies Financial'S ۞

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May 14, 2012, 10:53:50 AM5/14/12

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Dear Sir/ Madam,

Please find enclosed CRISIL Research’s analytical note titled “Inflation rises again on galloping food prices” based on inflation data as of April 2012.

Overview: WPI-based inflation crossed the 7 per cent mark to touch 7.2 per cent in April 2012. This was primarily due to food inflation re-entering the double-digit zone after a gap of six months. Food inflation could rise further if there is a steep increase in the minimum support prices of foodgrains. For 2012-13, CRISIL Research has revised its average inflation forecast up to 6.5 per cent, from our previous expectation of 6.2 per cent. The revision reflects resurgence in momentum in food inflation, the impact of the impending pass-through of global oil prices as well as rupee depreciation into domestic prices. In addition, the increase in the indirect tax rates in budget 2012-13, which are likely to be passed on to the consumers, will add to inflationary pressures.

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