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Honeymoon with the pollsters is over . . . .
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ConsRconž
May 15, 2013, 5:50:23 PM5/15/13
to
At least for this journalist:
______________________________________
Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column usually appears
Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tha...@thestar.ca Twitter:@nutgraf1
______________
British Columbia election: Time to end my relationship with pollsters:
Tim Harper
Canada's pollsters have given us two Dewey beats Truman moments in two
years. Is anyone still listening to them?
VANCOUVER—I’m breaking up with pollsters.
Yes, it should have been done ages ago, but I continued to break bread
with them, let them whisper sweet nothings in my ear and slip me some
numbers.
But they have issues and they were dragging me down with them.
For my misplaced faith I got two Dewey beats Truman moments in
consecutive years.
As the cliché goes, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
[----]
If you are either opposition leader you must look to British Columbia
and see a Clark victory built on the Harper manual. Fear is a powerful
campaign tool and Clark used it well.
We must now admit the most accurate front page published during this
campaign was the one the Clark campaign bought, calling herself The
Comeback Kid after the leader’s debate.
We must share the blame because we listened — again — to the pollsters,
but it’s a mug’s game to try to gauge much from talking to voters (which
we do), because you will largely find a mix of partisans and those who
are paying no attention.
So we rely on insiders, we look for trends, we talk to people on the
ground we trust, and, yes, we get swayed by published numbers.
But pollsters, this relationship isn’t working any longer. I know you
tried and I believed you.
I blame myself for not ending this sooner. And for that, shame on me.
Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column usually appears
Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tha...@thestar.ca Twitter:@nutgraf1
______________________________________
Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column usually appears
Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tha...@thestar.ca Twitter:@nutgraf1
______________
British Columbia election: Time to end my relationship with pollsters:
Tim Harper
Canada's pollsters have given us two Dewey beats Truman moments in two
years. Is anyone still listening to them?
VANCOUVER—I’m breaking up with pollsters.
Yes, it should have been done ages ago, but I continued to break bread
with them, let them whisper sweet nothings in my ear and slip me some
numbers.
But they have issues and they were dragging me down with them.
For my misplaced faith I got two Dewey beats Truman moments in
consecutive years.
As the cliché goes, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
[----]
If you are either opposition leader you must look to British Columbia
and see a Clark victory built on the Harper manual. Fear is a powerful
campaign tool and Clark used it well.
We must now admit the most accurate front page published during this
campaign was the one the Clark campaign bought, calling herself The
Comeback Kid after the leader’s debate.
We must share the blame because we listened — again — to the pollsters,
but it’s a mug’s game to try to gauge much from talking to voters (which
we do), because you will largely find a mix of partisans and those who
are paying no attention.
So we rely on insiders, we look for trends, we talk to people on the
ground we trust, and, yes, we get swayed by published numbers.
But pollsters, this relationship isn’t working any longer. I know you
tried and I believed you.
I blame myself for not ending this sooner. And for that, shame on me.
Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column usually appears
Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tha...@thestar.ca Twitter:@nutgraf1
Chom Noamsky
May 15, 2013, 10:05:35 PM5/15/13
to
On 5/15/2013 2:50 PM, ConsRconž wrote:
> At least for this journalist:
Never mind the polling analysis, let's talk about how you've called
> At least for this journalist:
*every* election in the last ten years wrong. A much more entertaining
topic... at your expense, of course.
Dave Smith
May 15, 2013, 10:23:14 PM5/15/13
to
their members to change their minds and vote against disbanding the log
gun registry. She was certain that was going to topple the
Conservative's minority government. Rather than ousting the
Conservatives we ended up with a Conservative majority.
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