Adam Carr: Data Vindication

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/SCOREBOARD-US-data...

"Admittedly, most of the data was second-tier. Nevertheless, it still
backs the case the US economy is on the path to recovery and I can’t
help but think what would have happened if the data had deteriorated.
House prices and consumer confidence were stronger than expected. In
the case of confidence it was markedly so. Confidence rose 5 per cent
in August (expectation was for a flat outcome) and that’s after July
was revised up 2 per cent. This is still low, but at least it’s in the
right direction. Ditto house prices, which rose 0.3 per cent in June
and 4 per cent year on year, according to Case-Shiller, dispelling the
myth that house prices in the US are still falling."

That is a case of complete baloney. US economy is not on its path to
recovery, all that signs of recovery were artifically stimulated. You
and the bunch of moron economists, only look at the pure government
statistics, without realising where those numbers are coming from or
how they were derived. The current game is 'pretend and extend',
and 'hope and pray that there would be a recovery'. No one in any
government is willing to make the hard decision and face reality.

House prices rising 4% for the year. Oh please. Dont make me laugh. At
best, the housing prices have stopped falling temporarily.

__
"Despite plenty of people talking about the deterioration in global
growth lately, the Fed, even the money printing Fed noticed – as they
cast their gaze into the yonder – that global growth has been
stronger-than-expected. I would add to that, much stronger. This is
significant and the data flow to date suggests third quarter will be
pretty good as well. It’s hard to be to beared up in that environment"

Again, dont make me laugh. The US had a GDP growth of 1.6% for the
quarter, which was slightly better than the 1.5% forecasted. This is
after the 1.5% expected was significantly downgraded from 2.4%. Even
then, all thse trillion dollars of stimulus and bailouts, and ultra low
interest rate only to show 1.6% growth. Wait till third and fourth
quarter, dont be surprised to see negative or zero GDP growth, as the
stimulus and tax credits fades. At that time, it will be the cue for
the Fed to do more quantatitive easing/money printing. A few months
down the track, fools like you will say the recovery is continuing,
because of better than expected data or positive data.

__
"As regular readers know, I think the Fed is incorrectly focussing on
GDP rather than measures of private demand in making that assessment
and are being misled by strong import growth which is weighing on the
GDP number. When you look at business investment, industrial
production, exports and even the ‘gradual’ improvement in consumption –
then the domestic recovery to date has been stronger than expected."

Private demand have fallen through the floor. Import might be up,
because it is much cheaper to import than to produce domestically. This
is of higher tax rates, more regulations, more labour laws/trade union
than overseas. Who wouldnt want to purchase from abroad if it is
cheaper?

As a regular reader, I just cant realising of how much crap you are.
You have been in the ultra-bull camp for the last year now. When a
glass is half-full, people see it as half-full, but you see it as
over-flowing.

__
"There was less disagreement on the outlook in 2011 and the consensus
view was that 2011 would bring a more meaningful recovery. The good
news is that we’re only a few months away from that. This is why the
Fed is unlikely to engage in further quantitative easing. They made it
abundantly clear in these minutes, as did Bernanke the other day, that
a material decline in activity would be required for them to monetise
further government debt."

Mate, all the economists, analysts and media puppets are just a bunch
of clowns. Of course they didnt see the GFC coming, because they have
their heads up their a**, and they still do. Wake up, and smell the
stench in the air. You cannot be more wrong. In a few months, you will
see what the real world is like, as the economy goes from bad to worst.
If the global economy is going to be so good, why wouldnt global
central banks start raising their interest rate, and why wont they
execute exit strategy for their quantatitive easing policy. Its because
the private consumption is down the crapper, banks are
undercapitalised, and they dont have a strategy. They want to wait till
the recovery is truly back on course. Well, dont hold your breath,
cause you might not see it. For the Fed, it will be quantatitive easing
to infinity. In a few years, they might have to start printing money,
just to pay off interest on their existing debt.

You never take any government statistics or speeches at face value. It
is almost better to do the opposite. Over the years, in furtherance of
their political career, the statistics are so manipulated, that no one
really knows what the real numbers are.

I cant believe how full of crap Adam Carr is. I would love to see his
investment allocation. If he is so bullish, he should be invested 100%
in high growth US stocks, with a margin of 100%. You got to put your
money where your mouth is, and not spreading positive rumours, so you
can then short the market.

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Posted By The End Is Near to How Will It End? at 9/01/2010 07:13:00 PM