The Economy Is Bad, but 1982 Was Worse
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jsb
Jan 21, 2009, 2:29:00 PM1/21/09
to Talk Marion County 24/7
Again RW, call me stupid but..........
The Economy Is Bad, but 1982 Was Worse
I thought it would make sense to get some clearer historical
perspective, and the economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) were nice enough to help me do so. In the last week, they helped
me put together a broad measure of the job market — one including both
official unemployment and more subtle kinds — stretching back to 1970.
Since the job market covers the entire economy and affects families in
tangible ways, it seems to be the single best yardstick.
And it shows, for starters, that the economy is not yet as bad as it
was in the early 1980s. It’s not even that close to being as bad. The
ranks of unemployed and underemployed, controlling for the size of the
population, were much larger in 1982 than today.
I took estimates from the Labor Department and created a measure of
unemployment that goes back to 1970. Including discouraged workers,
the measure shows that the unemployment rate was 7.6%. Another 5.2% of
the labor force was involuntarily working part time. These two groups
bring the combined rate to 12.8%.
Even this is an understatement, because the Labor Department’s
definition of discouraged workers is a little narrow. To be counted,
somebody must have looked for a job in the last year. And there appear
to be several fhundred thousand people — mostly men — who stopped
looking for work more than a year ago but would gladly take a good-
paying job if one came along. They would lift the rate above 13%.
As bad as the number is, it is still not that close to its 1982 peak
of 16.32% (or anywhere near its Depression levels, which were probably
above 30%). The early 1980s really were that bad.
~David Leonhardt in today's NY Times
MP: As I reported earlier, some of the other key differences between
today and the early 1980s are:
Prime Rate
1981: 20.5%
2009: 3.25% (Current)
Inflation
1980: 14.8%
2008: 0% (December)
Unemployment Rate
1982: 10.8%
2008: 7.2% (December)
30-Year Mortgage Rate
1981: 18.5%
2009: 4.96% (Current)
Real Gas Price (2008 dollars)
1981: $3.45 per gallon
2009: $1.82 (Current)
The Economy Is Bad, but 1982 Was Worse
I thought it would make sense to get some clearer historical
perspective, and the economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) were nice enough to help me do so. In the last week, they helped
me put together a broad measure of the job market — one including both
official unemployment and more subtle kinds — stretching back to 1970.
Since the job market covers the entire economy and affects families in
tangible ways, it seems to be the single best yardstick.
And it shows, for starters, that the economy is not yet as bad as it
was in the early 1980s. It’s not even that close to being as bad. The
ranks of unemployed and underemployed, controlling for the size of the
population, were much larger in 1982 than today.
I took estimates from the Labor Department and created a measure of
unemployment that goes back to 1970. Including discouraged workers,
the measure shows that the unemployment rate was 7.6%. Another 5.2% of
the labor force was involuntarily working part time. These two groups
bring the combined rate to 12.8%.
Even this is an understatement, because the Labor Department’s
definition of discouraged workers is a little narrow. To be counted,
somebody must have looked for a job in the last year. And there appear
to be several fhundred thousand people — mostly men — who stopped
looking for work more than a year ago but would gladly take a good-
paying job if one came along. They would lift the rate above 13%.
As bad as the number is, it is still not that close to its 1982 peak
of 16.32% (or anywhere near its Depression levels, which were probably
above 30%). The early 1980s really were that bad.
~David Leonhardt in today's NY Times
MP: As I reported earlier, some of the other key differences between
today and the early 1980s are:
Prime Rate
1981: 20.5%
2009: 3.25% (Current)
Inflation
1980: 14.8%
2008: 0% (December)
Unemployment Rate
1982: 10.8%
2008: 7.2% (December)
30-Year Mortgage Rate
1981: 18.5%
2009: 4.96% (Current)
Real Gas Price (2008 dollars)
1981: $3.45 per gallon
2009: $1.82 (Current)
Foxtrot
Jan 21, 2009, 5:18:30 PM1/21/09
to Talk Marion County 24/7
Good lord, much, much WORSE. Those who endured in those days will
never forget it. Don't laugh, but we would have killed back then to
have today's economy. Everybody was getting laid off, tempers got
short in gas lines / pumps, realator's had to separate clients from
bidding on assumable mortgages, 90% of home builder's went under,
inflation was out of sight. People just couldn't keep up with it. For
example, I remember my colleagues and I getting 11 to 12.5% pay
increases and thought the company was putting the screws to us. Thank
God 2 months later they tacked 6% on top of that which really was just
keeping pace with inflation. Remember, gas was well over $3 a gallon
and people were flooding the supermarkets to buy in bulk. For some non
durable goods, prices almost doubled within weeks. Needless to say,
Jimmy Carter wasn't popular..
never forget it. Don't laugh, but we would have killed back then to
have today's economy. Everybody was getting laid off, tempers got
short in gas lines / pumps, realator's had to separate clients from
bidding on assumable mortgages, 90% of home builder's went under,
inflation was out of sight. People just couldn't keep up with it. For
example, I remember my colleagues and I getting 11 to 12.5% pay
increases and thought the company was putting the screws to us. Thank
God 2 months later they tacked 6% on top of that which really was just
keeping pace with inflation. Remember, gas was well over $3 a gallon
and people were flooding the supermarkets to buy in bulk. For some non
durable goods, prices almost doubled within weeks. Needless to say,
Jimmy Carter wasn't popular..
Jazzy-J
Jan 21, 2009, 5:25:10 PM1/21/09
to Talk-Marion...@googlegroups.com
Confusing....... I thought in 1982, Reagan was President?
Foxtrot
Jan 21, 2009, 5:52:31 PM1/21/09
to Talk Marion County 24/7
Believe it or not a liberal press (not in the same hostile ballpark as
today's) and citizens blamed Jimmy Carter because all this began
snowballing throughout his Presidency (January 20, 1977 to January 20,
1981). What made it even much worse for Carter was Democrats
controlled both houses (big time) which made people even more irate,
but the President gets the blame. Thank God Ronald Reagan capatilized
on that and almost made Congress public enemy #1. Keep in mind, Ronald
Reagan was at the right place at the right time - JUST LIKE BILL
CLINTON who was much more lucky than Reagan....
Barack Obama is likely to spend the next four years with one big
advantage over his recent predecessors—a first term in the White House
with his party in uninterrupted control of both the House and the
Senate.
It’s an advantage no president has enjoyed since Jimmy Carter, and one
that would offer Obama a unique opportunity to carry out his
agenda.---->But, but, but must watch the budget / price
tags....spending / national debt
There are pluses and big minues to that - all you have to do is ask
Jimmy Carter who has always been a very stubborn man.
http://www.campus-watch.org/article/id/3548
> >> 2009: $1.82 (Current)- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
today's) and citizens blamed Jimmy Carter because all this began
snowballing throughout his Presidency (January 20, 1977 to January 20,
1981). What made it even much worse for Carter was Democrats
controlled both houses (big time) which made people even more irate,
but the President gets the blame. Thank God Ronald Reagan capatilized
on that and almost made Congress public enemy #1. Keep in mind, Ronald
Reagan was at the right place at the right time - JUST LIKE BILL
CLINTON who was much more lucky than Reagan....
Barack Obama is likely to spend the next four years with one big
advantage over his recent predecessors—a first term in the White House
with his party in uninterrupted control of both the House and the
Senate.
It’s an advantage no president has enjoyed since Jimmy Carter, and one
that would offer Obama a unique opportunity to carry out his
agenda.---->But, but, but must watch the budget / price
tags....spending / national debt
There are pluses and big minues to that - all you have to do is ask
Jimmy Carter who has always been a very stubborn man.
http://www.campus-watch.org/article/id/3548
>
> - Show quoted text -
Message has been deleted
dennis
Jan 22, 2009, 7:26:56 AM1/22/09
to Talk Marion County 24/7
Perhaps stubborn. But not many will say that Carter is not a good
person.
Maybe not suited for the presidency, but a good person nevertheless.
On Jan 21, 5:52 pm, Foxtrot <ram1969...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Believe it or not a liberal press (not in the same hostile ballpark as
> today's) and citizens blamed Jimmy Carter because all this began
> snowballing throughout his Presidency (January 20, 1977 to January 20,
> 1981). What made it even much worse for Carter was Democrats
> controlled both houses (big time) which made people even more irate,
> but the President gets the blame. Thank God Ronald Reagan capatilized
> on that and almost made Congress public enemy #1. Keep in mind, Ronald
> Reagan was at the right place at the right time - JUST LIKE BILL
> CLINTON who was much more lucky than Reagan....
>
> Barack Obama is likely to spend the next four years with one big
> advantage over his recent predecessors—a first term in the White House
> with his party in uninterrupted control of both the House and the
> Senate.
>
> It’s an advantage no president has enjoyed since Jimmy Carter, and one
> that would offer Obama a unique opportunity to carry out his
> agenda.---->But, but, but must watch the budget / price
> tags....spending / national debt
>
> There are pluses and big minues to that - all you have to do is ask
> Jimmy Carter who has always been a very stubborn man.http://www.campus-watch.org/article/id/3548
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
person.
Maybe not suited for the presidency, but a good person nevertheless.
On Jan 21, 5:52 pm, Foxtrot <ram1969...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Believe it or not a liberal press (not in the same hostile ballpark as
> today's) and citizens blamed Jimmy Carter because all this began
> snowballing throughout his Presidency (January 20, 1977 to January 20,
> 1981). What made it even much worse for Carter was Democrats
> controlled both houses (big time) which made people even more irate,
> but the President gets the blame. Thank God Ronald Reagan capatilized
> on that and almost made Congress public enemy #1. Keep in mind, Ronald
> Reagan was at the right place at the right time - JUST LIKE BILL
> CLINTON who was much more lucky than Reagan....
>
> Barack Obama is likely to spend the next four years with one big
> advantage over his recent predecessors—a first term in the White House
> with his party in uninterrupted control of both the House and the
> Senate.
>
> It’s an advantage no president has enjoyed since Jimmy Carter, and one
> that would offer Obama a unique opportunity to carry out his
> agenda.---->But, but, but must watch the budget / price
> tags....spending / national debt
>
> There are pluses and big minues to that - all you have to do is ask
dennis
Jan 22, 2009, 7:26:56 AM1/22/09
to Talk Marion County 24/7
Perhaps stubborn. But not many will say that Carter is not a good
person.
Maybe not suited for the presidency, but a good person nevertheless.
On Jan 21, 5:52 pm, Foxtrot <ram1969...@yahoo.com> wrote:
person.
Maybe not suited for the presidency, but a good person nevertheless.
On Jan 21, 5:52 pm, Foxtrot <ram1969...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Believe it or not a liberal press (not in the same hostile ballpark as
> today's) and citizens blamed Jimmy Carter because all this began
> snowballing throughout his Presidency (January 20, 1977 to January 20,
> 1981). What made it even much worse for Carter was Democrats
> controlled both houses (big time) which made people even more irate,
> but the President gets the blame. Thank God Ronald Reagan capatilized
> on that and almost made Congress public enemy #1. Keep in mind, Ronald
> Reagan was at the right place at the right time - JUST LIKE BILL
> CLINTON who was much more lucky than Reagan....
>
> Barack Obama is likely to spend the next four years with one big
> advantage over his recent predecessors—a first term in the White House
> with his party in uninterrupted control of both the House and the
> Senate.
>
> It’s an advantage no president has enjoyed since Jimmy Carter, and one
> that would offer Obama a unique opportunity to carry out his
> agenda.---->But, but, but must watch the budget / price
> tags....spending / national debt
>
> There are pluses and big minues to that - all you have to do is ask
> Jimmy Carter who has always been a very stubborn man.http://www.campus-watch.org/article/id/3548
> today's) and citizens blamed Jimmy Carter because all this began
> snowballing throughout his Presidency (January 20, 1977 to January 20,
> 1981). What made it even much worse for Carter was Democrats
> controlled both houses (big time) which made people even more irate,
> but the President gets the blame. Thank God Ronald Reagan capatilized
> on that and almost made Congress public enemy #1. Keep in mind, Ronald
> Reagan was at the right place at the right time - JUST LIKE BILL
> CLINTON who was much more lucky than Reagan....
>
> Barack Obama is likely to spend the next four years with one big
> advantage over his recent predecessors—a first term in the White House
> with his party in uninterrupted control of both the House and the
> Senate.
>
> It’s an advantage no president has enjoyed since Jimmy Carter, and one
> that would offer Obama a unique opportunity to carry out his
> agenda.---->But, but, but must watch the budget / price
> tags....spending / national debt
>
> There are pluses and big minues to that - all you have to do is ask
Jazzy-J
Jan 22, 2009, 8:49:39 AM1/22/09
to Talk-Marion...@googlegroups.com
So if Reagan is not to blame for the hard economic times for the first
year or so of his Presidency because of Carter, then Obama will not be
blamed for the hard economic times of his first year or so? Then it
is President Bush's fault eh?
year or so of his Presidency because of Carter, then Obama will not be
blamed for the hard economic times of his first year or so? Then it
is President Bush's fault eh?
cheshirecatldy
Jan 22, 2009, 8:54:41 AM1/22/09
to Talk Marion County 24/7
it is ALL bush's fault!!!!!
my nose is clogged up, that is bush's fault
my coffee is cold, bush's fault
there is nothing for us to take responsibility for, it is all bush's
fault
yep
On Jan 22, 5:49 am, Jazzy-J <jazzy.ja...@gmail.com> wrote:
> So if Reagan is not to blame for the hard economic times for the first
> year or so of his Presidency because of Carter, then Obama will not be
> blamed for the hard economic times of his first year or so? Then it
> is President Bush's fault eh?
>
my nose is clogged up, that is bush's fault
my coffee is cold, bush's fault
there is nothing for us to take responsibility for, it is all bush's
fault
yep
On Jan 22, 5:49 am, Jazzy-J <jazzy.ja...@gmail.com> wrote:
> So if Reagan is not to blame for the hard economic times for the first
> year or so of his Presidency because of Carter, then Obama will not be
> blamed for the hard economic times of his first year or so? Then it
> is President Bush's fault eh?
>
Jazzy-J
Jan 22, 2009, 9:14:32 AM1/22/09
to Talk-Marion...@googlegroups.com
My baby is home sick :( I don't blame Bush but I'm certain Ed would :) lol
cheshirecatldy
Jan 22, 2009, 9:41:50 AM1/22/09
to Talk Marion County 24/7
I have a cut on my finger and my washer didnt spin all the water out
of my last load, damn bush
On Jan 22, 6:14 am, Jazzy-J <jazzy.ja...@gmail.com> wrote:
> My baby is home sick :( I don't blame Bush but I'm certain Ed would :) lol
>
> On Thu, Jan 22, 2009 at 8:54 AM, cheshirecatldy
>
of my last load, damn bush
On Jan 22, 6:14 am, Jazzy-J <jazzy.ja...@gmail.com> wrote:
> My baby is home sick :( I don't blame Bush but I'm certain Ed would :) lol
>
> On Thu, Jan 22, 2009 at 8:54 AM, cheshirecatldy
>
Jazzy-J
Jan 22, 2009, 10:03:45 AM1/22/09
to Talk-Marion...@googlegroups.com
Girl you just having a bad day eh? :)
--
"I have never made but one prayer to God, a very short one: 'O Lord,
make my enemies ridiculous.' And God granted it." (Voltaire)
"I have never made but one prayer to God, a very short one: 'O Lord,
make my enemies ridiculous.' And God granted it." (Voltaire)
Foxtrot
Jan 22, 2009, 10:19:41 AM1/22/09
to Talk Marion County 24/7
Carter is a good person with a brilliant mind. I've met the man and
from briefly talking to him rest assured he believes he has never been
wrong in his life. One of my liberal friends in politics put it best
about the man, "He is so liberal that he can't see the forest for the
trees."
In response to JJ the blame goes to the Liberal Congress - Almost all
Dems and even a couple Republican's. The President can't pass
legislation to correct problems - ie. out of control Fanny & Freddy.
Pretty much his hands are tied especially when the opposition party is
in power.
from briefly talking to him rest assured he believes he has never been
wrong in his life. One of my liberal friends in politics put it best
about the man, "He is so liberal that he can't see the forest for the
trees."
In response to JJ the blame goes to the Liberal Congress - Almost all
Dems and even a couple Republican's. The President can't pass
legislation to correct problems - ie. out of control Fanny & Freddy.
Pretty much his hands are tied especially when the opposition party is
in power.
cheshirecatldy
Jan 22, 2009, 10:31:16 AM1/22/09
to Talk Marion County 24/7
jazz, I am!!
I blame it all on bush!!!! jk
bush made me change detergent too and my clothes smell funny
that damn man
I blame it all on bush!!!! jk
bush made me change detergent too and my clothes smell funny
that damn man
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