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Greetings Texas Monarch Watch Volunteers!

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October 10, 2007 - Update
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Contents:

(1) Monarchs are on the Move Heading South Through North Texas!

(2) Migration On-line Aids

(3) Overwintering Population Estimation & Migration Conditions

(4) Texas Spider News

(5) Thanks!!!

(Will add or remove anyone from these semi-annual updates upon request.)

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(1) Monarchs are on the Move Heading South Through North Texas!

Monarchs are moving in 100s and 1000s primarily from Wichita Falls to
Abilene to San Angelo and points west.

Here are snippets of some of the most recent reports:

===Oct 8===

Lee Andrea from near downtown San Angelo called to say that there were
thousands of monarchs in her property.

===Oct 9===

"Monarchs maintained steady progress across Wichita Falls, TX all day
Tuesday, Oct. 9 under clear skies, temps in the 70s and northerly wind
5-10 mph. Some 200+ Monarchs apparently took an early afternoon break,
resting on the sides of buildings at Midwestern State University...

Jim Miller
Texas Master Naturalist

===Oct 10===

Randy Davis called to report thousands of monarchs passing on the ne
side of Abilene.

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Please report migration sightings of *double digit or more* monarchs
which I'll forward to Journey North for mapping purposes:

mailto:mike.qu...@tpwd.state.tx.us
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(2) Migration On-line Aids

The following websites should be helpful in prediction when and where
best to search for migrating monarchs:

Animation of the fall 2007 monarch migration - Journey North
http://tinyurl.com/ytdmt3

Map showing peak average monarch migration dates and densities - Texas
Monarch Watch
http://texasento.net/fall_peak.htm

Consult the following website <http://tinyurl.com/2svmth> here dubbed:
"Moving Days for Monarchs" for a 3-day wind direction, speed, temp.
etc., predictions to fine tune when and where monarch movements will be.
Set for Dallas, but forecast location can be changed.

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(3) Overwintering Population Estimation & Migration Conditions

Predicting the size of the overwintering population in central Mexico is
still a bit of an art form. Chip Taylor of University of Kansas' Monarch
Watch made a very informal estimation last month of 7.5 - 8.0 hectares
of occupied forest which would be a continued improvement over the last
three year's winter populations.

Mexico Overwintering Population Estimates - 1994-2006 - Journey North
http://tinyurl.com/2o3ewp

At the end of September, Bill Calvert noted the following promising
conditions for the monarch's passage through Texas:

"Due to excessive rains in June and July, there is a virtual forest
(technically understory) of frostweed (Verbesina virginica) in place,  
mainly in riparian areas of central Texas. Many of these are climbable
(exaggeration).

Also present in abundance is camphor weed (probably Heterotheca
latifolia).

If nectar productions hold into October, butterflies entering Mexico
from Texas should be fat, if not obese!

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(4) Spiders in the News

Giant Spider Web in an East Texas State Park
http://texasento.net/Social_Spider.htm

Not so much news, as informational:

Yellow Garden Spider - Argiope aurantia
http://texasento.net/Argiope.htm

Spiny-backed Orbweaver - Gasteracantha cancriformis
http://texasento.net/cancriformis.htm

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(5) Thanks!!!

Thanks all for your continued support, data collection and reporting!

Will add or remove anyone upon request from this semi-annual news
report.

 Mike

========
 TEXAS
Parks &
Wildlife
========

___________________________
   Texas Monarch Watch
www.texasento.net/dplex.htm

Mike Quinn
Invertebrate Biologist
Rare & Nongame Species
Texas Parks & Wildlife

M: 3000 I-35 South, Suite 100, Austin, Texas 78704
P: 512-912-7059
C: 512-577-0250
E: mailto:mike.qu...@tpwd.state.tx.us
_________________
Texas Entomology
www.TexasEnto.net

I can be reached Toll Free at: 800-792-1112 ext 7059

Please report migration sightings of *double digit or more* monarchs
which I'll forward to Journey North for mapping purposes:

mailto:mike.qu...@tpwd.state.tx.us

Mary Kennedy and I are going to "chase the front" this weekend as it pours across West and SWTx. We're going to meet in Junction Sunday at noon at a cafe or place called "Cooper's."
  If you're interested in joining us let me know.

  Well will make a run out to Ozona to check there for the western edge. I'm bringing GPS, thermohygrometer, anenometer, camera, Monarch Watch Tags.

  Please, join us and help create a "net" of cell phone observations as the monarchs come through (we hope!)

Carol Cullar, Executive Director
Rio Bravo Nature Center Foundation, Inc.
Offices: RR2 4915 Columbine Curve
Eagle Pass TX 78852-9605
28.5128 W, -100.5273 N
Maverick County
www.riobravonaturecenter.org
naturecen...@wcsonline.net

---------------------------------
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Approximately 60 miles SSW of San Angelo is where I think
the vast, jaw dropping hoards of fall migrants are
concentrated right now:
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/4af/conc.jpg

In other words, in Ozona & Sonora and / or area slightly south
of Ozona should have clusters numbering
in the 1,000 - 10,000 range now whereas 3 days
ago Carol Cullar found only dozens in Ozona.

Since the core area of the migrants is skewed
to the West more than usual this year, Eagle Pass might see
only moderate numbers, whereas Del Rio should be inundated
(clusters containing high 1000's or low 10,000's) sometime
during the next 5 days and so should the area
westward out to Langtry and at least 30 miles beyond Langtry.

As of Oct. 13, clusters with 100's were still being seen as
far north as Frederick, Oklahoma according to Journey North
which is a really late date for that far north.  

Paul Cherubini

Paul,

  I've got a spotter in Sonora, but haven't heard a word. I'm
  all set to head back to Baker's Crossing if they call
  me from there.

  The Abilene zoo reported a single evening in
  which they had about 150 individuals.

  What are you basing your suppositions on? The
  winds in that part of the state have all been pretty stiff
  and all from the SSW.

  Carol Cullar

Approximately 60 miles SSW of San Angelo is where I think
the vast, jaw dropping hoards of fall migrants are
concentrated right now:
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/4af/conc.jpg

In other words, in Ozona & Sonora and / or area slightly south
of Ozona should have clusters numbering
in the 1,000 - 10,000 range now whereas 3 days
ago Carol Cullar found only dozens in Ozona.

Since the core area of the migrants is skewed
to the West more than usual this year, Eagle Pass might see
only moderate numbers, whereas Del Rio should be inundated
(clusters containing high 1000's or low 10,000's) sometime
during the next 5 days and so should the area
westward out to Langtry and at least 30 miles beyond Langtry.

As of Oct. 13, clusters with 100's were still being seen as
far north as Frederick, Oklahoma according to Journey North
which is a really late date for that far north.

Paul Cherubini

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I have 10 to 20 monarch watch volunteers in and around this area. I have
received no ground truth confirmation of your speculation. But that general
area is indeed where many monarchs should be.

http://www.texasento.net/fall_peak.htm

Mike Quinn, Austin

On 10/17/07, Paul Cherubini <mona...@saber.net> wrote:

--
________________
Texas Entomology
http://texasento.net

Huge numbers were present from Eden westward to San Angelo
and beyond on Oct. 14 and the days just before Oct. 14.
Did Mary Kennedy and Rene make it out to San Angelo
on Oct. 14?

Then the winds shifted around to the North on Oct. 15,
presumably allowing the migrants to make about 60 miles
of southward progress in one day.  But the winds reshifted
back to the South sometime yesturday (Oct. 16) and today
they're blowing strong again from the South - strong
enough to impede the migration.  

So an already late migration is presumably being further
delayed.

Paul Cherubini

Mike, a report from Sonora, TX was just posted on Journey North
http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/jn-query-byday?1192654316
that confirms my earlier speculation that "vast, jaw dropping
hoards of fall migrants should be concentrated in the Ozona /
Sonora area now or area slightly south":

"Started seeing some Monarchs on Friday(10/12/07)and they
were here all weekend in the hundreds. Today, they are
coming in by the thousands - trees are full of roosting
butterflies. As in past years, they seem to prefer the
Fruitless Mulberrys, maybe because they are fullest
and dark, or perhaps because they are out of the wind.
If the butterflies keep coming like they have been all day,
this will be one of the best years ever."

Another facinating post on Journey North was Linda S's
post about continued fairly large numbers of migrants in
southern Oklahoma
http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/jn-query-byday?1192634684

So whereas people in the Del Rio - Eagle Pass - Uvalde
region normally don't see subtantial clusters after about
October 24, this year they may continue seeing them
persist into the first week of November.

Paul Cherubini