Fw: CrisisWatch No.47, 1 July 2007

[Jean-Francois Darcq]

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CrisisWatch No.47, 1 July 2007











New CrisisWatch bulletin from the International Crisis Group

01/07/2007



CrisisWatch N°47, 1 July 2007


Nine  actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated
in June 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.


Months of escalating violence in the Palestinian Territories culminated in
the 14 June split of Hamas-ruled Gaza from Fatah-controlled West Bank. In
Lebanon MP Walid Eido became the seventh anti-Syrian figure to be
assassinated since 2005, while six UN peacekeepers were killed in the
south, and fierce battles continued between the army and the Fatah al-Islam
group. Popular discontent with Pakistan’s President Musharraf increased
further with demonstrations in support of suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar
Chaudhry attracting tens of thousands across the country. Violence
escalated in Somalia with widespread attacks on Transitional Federal
Government officials, troops and civilians. In Niger insecurity mounted in
the northern region of Agadez with a surge of attacks by the recently
formed Tuareg Mouvement des Nigériens pour la Justice. And the United
Kingdom raised its terror alert to maximum after two unexploded car bombs
were found in central London and a burning car was crashed into Glasgow
airport.


The situation also deteriorated in Afghanistan, the Basque Country (Spain)
and the Comoros Islands.


Three situations showed improvement in June. After a nine-month deadlock,
Burundi’s September 2006 peace deal was reactivated. North Korea invited
IAEA inspectors to visit Yongbyon nuclear reactor and agreed on a plan for
verifying its shutdown. And in Yemen a ceasefire deal was agreed between
the government and Al-Houthi rebels after months of violence in Saada
province.


For July 2007, CrisisWatch identifies the Democratic Republic of Congo,
Ethiopia/Eritrea and Pakistan as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at
particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming
month.


JUNE 2007 TRENDS


Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, Basque Country (Spain), Comoros Islands, Israel/Occupied
Territories, Lebanon, Niger, Pakistan, Somalia, United Kingdom


Improved Situations
Burundi, North Korea, Yemen


Unchanged Situations
Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia
& Herzegovina, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia),
Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador,
Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau,
Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan,
Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lesotho, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova,
Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal,  Nigeria, North
Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), Philippines, Republic of
Congo, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Solomon
Islands, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait,
Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine,
Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe


JULY 2007 OUTLOOK


Conflict Risk
Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Pakistan


*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts,
and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes
within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between
countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country
where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming
month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated
violence is feared.


Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the
CrisisWatch database.


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