The roll of the cycles.
Weathe...@gmail.com
Volcanic Blast Location Influences Climate Reaction
Mount Katmai erupted on June 6, 1912. Ash devastated areas hundreds of
miles away. That eruption is said to have cooled the Northern
Hemisphere during the summer, weakened the Asian monsoon, warmed India,
and cooled Asia the following winter. Temperatures around the world
dropped by 1 or 2 degrees Fahrenheit up to two years following the
eruption.
A study based on that eruption concluded that eruptions to the far
north of the equator have a different affect on the world's climate to
volcanoes in the tropics. There is less cloud cover, warmer
temperatures and less precipitation across northern India west into the
Persian Gulf.
Studies on tropical volcanic eruptions show a change in the, an
anticlockwise wind pattern circling the Arctic at about 55 degrees
north. (Spinning slowly it sends cold air down toward the equator into
the mid-latitudes, a faster spin keeps the cold up north.)
Aerosols from Mount Pinatubo's eruption on 12th June 1991, spread
around the globe in the troposphere and allegedly blocked the sun,
cooling the tropics. It is further alleged that this reduces the north
to south temperature difference that helps to shift the Arctic
Oscillation, keeping frigid air in the north during the winter,
resulting in mild conditions over much of eastern North America.
But, when Alaska's Mount Katmai erupted, most of the aerosols
remained well to the north, where they were not heated as much. In
turn, the lower stratosphere did not warm greatly, so there was little
influence on the Arctic Oscillation.
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2005/OmanRobock.html
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/volcano_climate.html
The study appeared in the July 2005 issue of the Journal of Geophysical
Research-Atmospheres.
These are the snags I came up with:
The angle that insolation hits the aerosols in the northern hemisphere
will -in summer (as with the Katmai eruption) heat the pollution more
than that which appeared with the Pinatubo eruption. The angle of
incidence is such that more radiation will get under the aerosols and
of course with the increased length of the day, do so for longer.
Then there is the fact that glaciers can exist in the tropics despite
their height and thus increased exposure to insolation. (From their
existence by the way it aught to be pretty clear that insolation is not
he be all and end all of meteorology that logic would suggest.)
Assuming that the aerosols have different affects at different
latitudes is another way of saying that aerosols don't have the
effect that they are or were assumed to have. In fact you could say
that the temperature differences might well have been caused by another
effect altogether.
We know that there is a cycle in the weather of the Himalayas that
affects the temperatures of the Arabian sea in a way that increases
nitrous oxide producing algae and has an effect on the fishing industry
there. This cycle is temperature based and seems unconnected to
volcanic activity: Such a cycle may be present on the western coast of
North America:
"At first, Joaquim Goés' prediction sounds a little like the kind
of folklore you might find in a farmer's almanac: low-snow winters
across Europe and Asia will be followed by summers during which the
amount of fish food in the Arabian Sea will skyrocket:
"We were funded by NASA to come up with maps of nitrate
concentrations in the oceans based on satellite observations of
chlorophyll and sea surface temperature," he said. According to the
maps, nitrate amounts in the Arabian Sea during the summer months of
July-August were way too high. A 350 percent increase in chlorophyll
meant that phytoplankton populations had skyrocketed in the previous 7
years.
"We discovered that temperatures had gotten cooler," he said. The
unusually cool temperatures along the coast of Somalia suggested that
upwelling of deep water had increased.
In the summer, the winds blow from the ocean toward the land, bringing
heavy rains to India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar among other
countries. In the winter, the direction of the winds reverses and has a
dramatic effects on the landlocked Arabian Sea.
The basic cause of the Asian monsoon is that the Eurasian landmass and
the Indian Ocean warm and cool at different rates through the seasons.
In summer, hot air above the land surface rises, and moist air from
over the ocean flows in to replace it. In the winter, the opposite
occurs.
H.F. Blandford, in 1884 proposed the less snow cover there was over the
Himalaya, the sooner you would have warming in the spring and the
warmer it would get over the summer. Therefore, snow cover would
influence both the onset and intensity of the monsoon."
[Actually the Pallakelli and Dambetenne coffee and cocoa plantation
owner, Robert Boyd Tytler had come up with a cycle of light and heavy
rainfall near Kandy, in the Central Province of Ceylon; at least a
decade earlier. Mr. Tytler came from Aberdeen, if that information
helps locate his records.]
In 2004 Fasullo and colleagues published the results of an analysis of
snow cover in Eurasia since 1967. Eurasian snow cover played a major
role in the monsoon intensity in non-El Niño/ La Niña years.
A very clear decline in snow cover in Eurasia since 1997 "unique in
the data record" corroborated by comparing the snow cover data with
an independent data set-station observations of air temperature. The
trend is verified from that data: air temperatures are going up
considerably, and snow cover is going down."
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Monsoon/printall.php
Which just leaves a comparison of the likely spell and synergy produced
by similar spells for the Katmai and Pinotubo eruptions to show a link
or not as the case may be.
1911 28 Dec 18:47 Wet
1912
4 Jan 13:29 The year started with a wet spell and continued. Possibly
with a deep low over Britain.
11 Jan 07:43 Then there was a very unsettled spell with many fronts.
19 Jan 11:10 With this spell a series of lows would have given way to
anticyclonic weather.
27 Jan 08:51 Which in turn would have turned thundery.
2 Feb 23:58 Low overcast and mist or drizzle with this spell. [1]
10 Feb 00:50 Might have turned a lot wetter with some wind.
18 Feb 05:44 Before turning back to overcast with many fronts. [1]
25 Feb 19:26 This spell is similar to the one for 4th Jan, being 6
hours different.
3 Mar 10:42 And this is similar to the spell for the 11th Jan, being 3
hours different. [2]
10 Mar 19:55 So, another dry spell.
18 Mar 22:08 Wet.
26 Mar 03:02 Thundery.
1 Apr 22:04 Wet as with the 18th Mar.
9 Apr 15:24 And this is a super wet spell is it? Half past thundery.
17 Apr 11:40 Unsettled. And I really don't like to guess.
24 Apr 08:47 Again unsettled.
1 May 10:19 Unsettled.
9 May 09:56 Wet.
I'm sure that if this volcano had been monitored, there would have
been records of activity there.
16 May 22:13 More wet spells. And look how closely they repeat.
23 May 14:11 Wet.
30 May 23:29 This is a fine spell in normal circumstances but I think
the harmonic from all those wet spells would have stymied it. Also of
course, it is somewhat off in the Atlantic.
8 Jun 02:35 And this is another. Two days late to help, though.
15 Jun 06:23 Awkward.
21 Jun 20:39 Awkward.
29 Jun 13:34 Really wet.
7 Jul 16:47 Fine
14 Jul 13:13 Wet and windy.
21 Jul 05:18 Awkward but fine.
29 Jul 04:28 Wet.
6 Aug 04:17 Wet and windy.
12 Aug 19:57 Another dry spell. See: 10 Mar.
19 Aug 16:56 Fine.
27 Aug 19:59 Fine.
4 Sep 13:23 Awkward and wet.
11 Sep 03:48 Fine.
18 Sep 07:54 Fine.
26 Sep 11:34 Probably fine. The high off to the west.
3 Oct 20:48 Thundery.
10 Oct 13:40 Awkward.
18 Oct 02:06 Fine.
26 Oct 02:30 Awkward fine again.
2 Nov 03:37 Seriously awkward. Was there only the one eruption?
9 Nov 02:05 Fine
16 Nov 22:43 Awkward. Fine?
24 Nov 16:12 Wet and windy.
1 Dec 11:05 Fine.
8 Dec 17:07 Fine.
16 Dec 20:06 Fine.
24 Dec 04:30 No idea.
30 Dec 20:12 Fine and breezy?
1991
7 Jan 18:36 Why not start off with an awkward one? That's what
volcanoes thrive on.
15 Jan 23:50 Cold and overcast.
23 Jan 14:22 Awkward one.
30 Jan 06:10 Dull and overcast.
6 Feb 13:52 Fine.
14 Feb 17:32 Fine if a little off.
21 Feb 22:58 Fine.
Is anyone besides me beginning to get the picture?
28 Feb 18:25 A repeat. Now there's a surprise.
8 Mar 10:32 This is a wet, one isn't it?
16 Mar 08:11 Fine.
23 Mar 06:03 Dull and overcast.
30 Mar 07:17 Fine going on unstable.
7 Apr 06:45 Wet and windy.
14 Apr 19:38 Awkward. Here it comes.
21 Apr 12:39 Yep. This is when it started.
28 Apr 20:58 Thundery.
7 May 00:46 Wet and windy.
14 May 04:36 Oof, I hate these!
20 May 19:46 And these.
28 May 11:37 Awkward.
5 Jun 15:30 Half past thundery.
12 Jun 12:06 So when I get a series of ones I don't like
forecasting. I shall forecast major volcanic activity.
19 Jun 04:19 More awkward ones.
That reminds me, I have to do the forecast/back-cast for the two years
following each of these. That should provide good practice. What a
grind.
It was gone midnight Sat/Sun morning; when I broke off from this. I
tried to get online again the phone lines to the flat having just been
restored earlier that evening after being taken out last Wednesday by
fitters putting in new front door controls to the block; I think I have
a boot sector virus. CWShredder seemed to find something in Msconfig.
Is that a genuine catch? I have been using msconfig to try and get rid
of something.
[It turned out to be a glitch with AOL and Microsft making me pay more
dearly than I consider fair use.]
What I am trying to show is that I am writing this ad hoc or off the
cuff. But it is difficult to see how a critic could say that I have
forced any of the conclusions to the work as I have given the codes
that I am using and they can only be formed one way. Anyone using the
methods I have already given online time after time for years will have
to come to the same conclusion about the spells as I have.
I've just opened the ephemeris to get the years 19 -13,14, 92 and 93.
I find it a grind as I said last night but I have nothing else to do
now that I am offline and trying to clean the computer.
27 Jun 02:58 Thundery.
5 Jul 02:50 Thundery.
11 Jul 19:06 Wet.
18 Jul 15:11 Thundery.
26 Jul 18:24 Awkward bugger.
3 Aug 11:26 Another awkward bugger (but on the fine side?)
10 Aug 02:28 Awkward fine.
17 Aug 05:01 Fine.
25 Aug 09:07 Thundery.
1 Sep 18:16 Overcast.
8 Sep 11:01 Fine.
15 Sep 22:01 Wet.
23 Sep 22:40 Awkward.
1 Oct 00:30 Awkward
7 Oct 21:39 Awkward.
15 Oct 17:33 Fine-ish.
23 Oct 11:08 Fine.
30 Oct 07:11 Wet.
6 Nov 11:11 Fine.
14 Nov 14:01 Fine.
21 Nov 22:56 Fine.
28 Nov 15:21 Awkward thundery.
6 Dec 03:56 Wet.
14 Dec 09:32 Half past thundery. [3]
21 Dec 10:23 Awkward Wet.
28 Dec 01:55 Fine.
1. Suspect severe Extra Tropical Storms in the southern hemisphere.
2. I have no idea why the "time of the phase" idea works but this
is what happens generally:
00:00 Dull and overcast. 01:30 Very wet 02:00 Fine?
03:00 Thundery and humid. 04:00 Wet. (?) 05:00 Anticyclonic.
06:00 Dull and overcast. 07:00 Wet. 08:00 Fine?
09:00 Thundery and humid. 10:00 Wet. 11:00 Anticyclonic.
12:00 Dull and overcast. 13:00 Wet. 14:00 Fine?
15:00 Thundery and humid. 16:00 Wet. 17:00 Anticyclonic.
18:00 Dull and overcast. 19:00 Wet. 20:00 Fine?
21:00 Thundery and humid. 22:00 Wet. 23:00 Anticyclonic.
Why the time of the phase falling on 6 or 12 o'clock should produce
dull and overcast weather typical of "cols" and those falling on 3
or 9 should be thundery, I can only guess. (My guess is that it is for
the same reason as that which causes phases that fall on 20 to or 20
past the hour on other phases prone to being extremely unsettled.)
I hate to think that it might become a law unexplained but the above
does happen. In the regions I am familiar with the declination of the
moon has to be some 7 or 8 degrees south (making it 60 degrees from
here) for the most spectacular thunder.
So what is the difference between a wet spell and a very wet spell?
I think that I am swayed too much by wanting the above code to work to
the hour for each hour. But I came to the conclusions about this code
unbiased. Originally I was looking at disasters. And I was still trying
to understand astronomical stuff such as the position of the moon for
its phases. Just getting hold of the days of the phases was difficult
enough.
[http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/427abad57ae20671/9a0143f235c2dc27?tvc=1#9a0143f235c2dc27]
Fortunately -and I mean that in its complete sense. Laver's tide
tables gave the times pot the phases. And with the first tide table I
began the journey to both understand tides and if possible, learn about
the weather.
The first thing I noticed was that if the time of the phases varied by
one hour then the weather would tend to be wet. What was the chance of
buying a tide table with the idea in mind to guess what I was going to
go on to guess and buy a table the year that the time of a phase would
differ from another by 1 hour?
I forget what epiphany came next but there was a stream of them
arriving like magic and their beauty enchanted me. I was hooked on a
drug that helped me forget the evil that my wife had done me.
I am at last beginning to think that the time is not to the hour at
all. There is a great deal of geometry in it of course, not least of it
complicated by the fact that the declinations of the sun and moon (and
who knows what of the planets?) The most severe wet weather occurs at
half one not one o'clock.
Search the records and see if the most severe weather on the border of
Italy and France is at one o'clock. So that extra half hour allows
the geometry to settle over Britain.
So should the code run more along these lines [4] :
00:00 Dull and overcast. 01:30 Very wet 02:00 Fine?
03:00 Thundery/humid. 04:30 Very wet. 05:00 Anticyclonic.
06:00 Dull and overcast. 07:30 Very wet. 08:00 Fine?
09:00 Thundery/humid. 10:30 Very wet. 11:00 Anticyclonic.
12:00 Dull and overcast. 13:30 Very wet. 14:00 Fine?
15:00 Thundery/humid. 16:30 Very wet. 17:00 Anticyclonic.
18:00 Dull and overcast. 19:30 Very wet. 20:00 Fine?
21:00 Thundery/humid. 22:30 Very wet. 23:00 Anticyclonic.
Which brings me to the differences between the phases for fine and
anticyclonic:
I think the phases at 5 and 11 o'clock are "stronger" than those
at 2 and 8. I have no evidence for this. And I certainly don't have a
reason. It's a just a feeling. That and the fact that I would have
seen by now and other difference.
The New Moon at 2 am would occur over the 150 degree E longitude, in
the east Pacific. The quarter moons at 2 am would place the moon over
either the 60 degree east or the 120 degree west longitudes. (The sun
at 2 am is of course on the same time zone as west Australia. It is mid
day there at 02:00 GMT.)
Just to complete the circle, a Full Moon at 2 am would be over the 30
degree west longitude.
Now look at the New moon for 8 am:
The moon and sun are over the 60 degree east longitude. Quarter moons
at that time will take place with the moon over the 150 degree east and
the 30 degree west longitudes. Not that dissimilar to the geometry for
the phases at 2 am. And again the phases at 2 and 8 pm have a lot of
geometry in common.
On the other side of the thunder spells is the weak set of spells for
wet weather:
The geometry of the phases for 10 o'clock and 4 o'clock are similar
to each other in the way the 2 and 8 are. But you wouldn't consider
spells for thunder weak ones.
Would you?
They are sultry and oppressive. They are loud and dangerous. But they
are not weak, are they?
I doubt here is any such thing as a weak spell. It's just that their
results at the moment fit my description. I would say that a spell
producing cols and ridges and troughs was a weak one. But these ridges
and troughs too can produce thunder. What they most certainly do
produce if they supply lack luster weather here in the UK, is hurricane
and typhoons. Super-cyclones if they follow the right sequence of
phases.
And those occur when the time of the phase is at 6 or 12 o'clock. I
don't suppose I will know all the angles but these are what I do
know.
My attention was first drawn to these angles by a commentary on the
work of a 19th century climatologist (?) astrologer(?) called Hugh
Clements. All I can find out about him is that he forecast the weather
in "London newspapers" for some 10 years -prior to 1902. The book
in which I read about him is so badly written I hesitate to mention
more.
Needless to say, it said little if anything about the methods this Mr.
Clements used. It may have been something along the lines I use or it
may have been more on the method used by the owner of this semi-defunct
site: http://earthquake.itgo.com/today.htm
However I dropped on them, the ideas seemed to work at the time. I was
blessed with the run of the phases obviously, for once I was a
confirmed believer, they started to behave non sequentially. Either
that or I was too ignorant to know no better. Each depressing conflict
seemed to provide another insight, once I had weathered it.
So I learned to put up with grief and grow in ability. But there was
always enough going wrong to keep me humble. And though I have long
since passed the stage when a good few spells screwing up would throw
me, many other things happen to thwart me from time to time; as if to
put me on my guard against growing too big for my boots.
Well if it could happen to Moses, I suppose I aught to expect no
better.
3. How can something be half past thundery?
It can't. I am making up clauses to help me cut down on the time this
stuff takes to write. By drawing attention to the difficulty or
ignorance... my difficulties and ignorances; I am highlighting special
cases that the reader needs to analyse for himself.
I have separated wet and dry spells as best I can with paragraph
spacings. Any glaring errors, I will update. Any new ideas too I will
update but I promise to put online somewhere, this first draught
unadorned and unexpurgated except for any personal remarks that might
be best posted after further thought gives time for reconsidering their
content.
Besides, I have to convert this to text file, save to a disk, scan the
disk, set up another hard drive with more up to date security, scan the
disk and load it then get online and post it.
Thinking about the following, I have included the year 1915 too and
will probably have to do the years 19 -10 and 11, 19 -89, 90, 92, 93,
and 94 as controls. That's a lot of work. I have these on Word or
Open Office 1.1 and 2 as well as text if anyone wants to ask for a
copy. I don't think a download would be any quicker by email than
just copying and pasting but I can send them on the same format that
would make using them yourself a little easier.
Having tab spaces instead of the ascii stuff which turns into any
number of letter spacings when pasted, might be more useful to an
amateur wishing to do the same as me.
I have the whole of the century on disk. Converting it to a word
processor in a form that will go straight into a spread sheet was a
pain. Getting your own from the internet by copying and pasting it can
cause all sorts of problems for people with little programming skill if
they want to manipulate it. It took me long enough.
Actually there is a malfunction in my brain which, while one hemisphere
thought it a major PITA, the other side of my head was getting quite a
kick out of.
Coming to these about an hour since I wrote the above, I am just going
to keep the comment for each spell to the minimum. No very wets and no
guesses. If I am stuck, I will put a question mark as a comment. I will
point out the awkward ones which are at 20 to or past the hour,
although they are as obvious to you as to me. I will try and spot any
match phases too. [5]
1910
3 Jan 13:27 Wet.
11 Jan 11:51 Dull.
18 Jan 10:20 *
25 Jan 11:50
2 Feb 11:27
10 Feb 01:13
16 Feb 18:32
24 Feb 03:36 *
4 Mar 07:52
11 Mar 12:12
18 Mar 03:37 *
25 Mar 20:21 *
3 Apr 00:48
9 Apr 21:25
16 Apr 14:04
24 Apr 13:22
2 May 13:29
9 May 05:33
16 May 02:13
24 May 05:39 *
31 May 22:24 *
7 Jun 13:16
14 Jun 16:19 *
22 Jun 20:12
30 Jun 04:39 *
6 Jul 21:20 *
14 Jul 08:24 *
22 Jul 08:37 *
29 Jul 09:34 *
5 Aug 06:37 *
13 Aug 02:01
20 Aug 19:14
27 Aug 14:33
3 Sep 18:05
11 Sep 20:10
19 Sep 04:52
25 Sep 20:54
3 Oct 08:32
11 Oct 13:40 *
18 Oct 14:24
25 Oct 05:48
2 Nov 01:56
10 Nov 05:29
17 Nov 00:25
23 Nov 18:13
1 Dec 21:11
9 Dec 19:05
16 Dec 11:05
23 Dec 10:36 *
31 Dec 16:21 *
1911
8 Jan 06:20 *
14 Jan 22:26 *
22 Jan 06:21 *
30 Jan 09:44 *
6 Feb 15:27
13 Feb 10:37 *
21 Feb 03:44 *
1 Mar 00:31
7 Mar 23:01
14 Mar 23:58
23 Mar 00:26 *
30 Mar 12:37 *
6 Apr 05:55
13 Apr 14:36 *
21 Apr 18:35 *
28 Apr 22:25 *
5 May 13:13
13 May 06:09
21 May 09:23 *
28 May 06:24 *
3 Jun 22:04
11 Jun 21:50
19 Jun 20:50
26 Jun 13:19 *
3 Jul 09:20 *
11 Jul 12:53
19 Jul 05:31
25 Jul 20:12
1 Aug 23:29
10 Aug 02:54
17 Aug 12:10
24 Aug 04:14
31 Aug 16:20
8 Sep 15:56
15 Sep 17:51
22 Sep 14:37 *
30 Sep 11:08
8 Oct 04:11
14 Oct 23:46
22 Oct 04:09
30 Oct 06:41 *
6 Nov 15:48
13 Nov 07:19 *
20 Nov 20:49
29 Nov 01:42 *
6 Dec 02:52
12 Dec 17:45 *
20 Dec 15:40 *
28 Dec 18:47
1912 is already done, of course.
1912
4 Jan 13:29
11 Jan 07:43 *
19 Jan 11:10
27 Jan 08:51
2 Feb 23:58
10 Feb 00:50
18 Feb 05:44 *
25 Feb 19:26 *
3 Mar 10:42 *
10 Mar 19:55
18 Mar 22:08
26 Mar 03:02
1 Apr 22:04
9 Apr 15:24 *
17 Apr 11:40 *
24 Apr 08:47 *
1 May 10:19 *
9 May 09:56
16 May 22:13
23 May 14:11
30 May 23:29
8 Jun 02:35 *
15 Jun 06:23
21 Jun 20:39 *
29 Jun 13:34 *
7 Jul 16:47 *
14 Jul 13:13 *
21 Jul 05:18 *
29 Jul 04:28 *
6 Aug 04:17 *
12 Aug 19:57
19 Aug 16:56
27 Aug 19:59
4 Sep 13:23 *
11 Sep 03:48
18 Sep 07:54
26 Sep 11:34 *
3 Oct 20:48
10 Oct 13:40 *
18 Oct 02:06
26 Oct 02:30
2 Nov 03:37 *
9 Nov 02:05
16 Nov 22:43 *
24 Nov 16:12
1 Dec 11:05
8 Dec 17:07
16 Dec 20:06
24 Dec 04:30
30 Dec 20:12
1913
7 Jan 10:28
15 Jan 16:01
22 Jan 15:40 *
29 Jan 07:34 *
6 Feb 05:22
14 Feb 08:34 *
21 Feb 02:03
27 Feb 21:15
8 Mar 00:22 *
15 Mar 20:58
22 Mar 11:56
29 Mar 12:57
6 Apr 17:48
14 Apr 05:39 *
20 Apr 21:32
28 Apr 06:09
6 May 08:24 *
13 May 11:45 *
20 May 07:18 *
28 May 00:03
4 Jun 19:57
11 Jun 16:37 *
18 Jun 17:53
26 Jun 17:40 *
4 Jul 05:06
10 Jul 21:37 *
18 Jul 06:06
26 Jul 09:58
2 Aug 12:58
9 Aug 04:03
16 Aug 20:27
25 Aug 00:18 *
31 Aug 20:38 *
7 Sep 13:05
15 Sep 12:46 *
23 Sep 12:30
30 Sep 04:56
7 Oct 01:46 *
15 Oct 06:07
22 Oct 22:53
29 Oct 14:29
5 Nov 18:34 *
13 Nov 23:11
21 Nov 07:56
28 Nov 01:41 *
5 Dec 14:58
13 Dec 15:00
20 Dec 16:15
27 Dec 14:58
1914
4 Jan 13:09
12 Jan 05:09
19 Jan 00:29
26 Jan 06:34 *
3 Feb 10:32 *
10 Feb 17:34 *
17 Feb 09:23 *
25 Feb 00:02
5 Mar 05:03
12 Mar 04:18 *
18 Mar 19:39 *
26 Mar 18:09
3 Apr 19:41 *
10 Apr 13:28
17 Apr 07:52
25 Apr 11:21 *
3 May 06:29
9 May 21:30
16 May 22:12
25 May 02:34 *
1 Jun 14:03
8 Jun 05:18 *
15 Jun 14:20 *
23 Jun 15:33
30 Jun 19:24 *
7 Jul 13:59
15 Jul 07:32
23 Jul 02:38 *
29 Jul 23:51
6 Aug 00:40 *
14 Aug 00:56
21 Aug 12:26 *
28 Aug 04:52
4 Sep 14:01
12 Sep 17:48
19 Sep 21:33
26 Sep 12:03
4 Oct 05:59
12 Oct 09:33
19 Oct 06:33
25 Oct 22:44 *
2 Nov 23:48
10 Nov 23:37 *
17 Nov 16:02
24 Nov 13:38 *
2 Dec 18:20
10 Dec 11:31
17 Dec 02:35 *
24 Dec 08:24 *
4. Your mileage will vary, no "may" about it. Get used to what sort
of ground level air pressures and weather systems arrive with the
phases at a location near you. You will start to get a feeling for it
that may at times become confused but even in regions where the weather
is much the same day to day for many weeks in every season, you will
see how the phases of the moon operate to affect your portion of the
climate of this blue marble.
And that's why I have included this blank sheet for you to try your
hand. If you ask, I will send you the whole century.
1915
1 Jan 12:20 *
8 Jan 21:12
15 Jan 14:42 *
23 Jan 05:32
31 Jan 04:41 *
7 Feb 05:11
14 Feb 04:31
22 Feb 02:58
1 Mar 18:32
8 Mar 12:27
15 Mar 19:42 *
23 Mar 22:47 *
31 Mar 05:37 *
6 Apr 20:12
14 Apr 11:35 *
22 Apr 15:38 *
29 Apr 14:19 *
6 May 05:22 *
14 May 03:31
22 May 04:49
28 May 21:33
4 Jun 16:32
12 Jun 18:57
20 Jun 14:24 *
27 Jun 04:27
4 Jul 05:54
12 Jul 09:30
19 Jul 21:08
26 Jul 12:11
2 Aug 21:27
10 Aug 22:52
18 Aug 02:17
24 Aug 21:40 *
1 Sep 14:56
9 Sep 10:52
16 Sep 07:21 *
23 Sep 09:35
1 Oct 09:44 *
8 Oct 21:42 *
15 Oct 13:51
23 Oct 00:15
31 Oct 04:39 *
7 Nov 07:52
13 Nov 23:03
21 Nov 17:36 *
29 Nov 22:10
6 Dec 18:03
13 Dec 11:38 *
21 Dec 12:52
29 Dec 12:59
And now the two years prior to and the three following the Pinatubo
eruption 1989 to 1994:
1989
7 Jan 19:22 *
14 Jan 13:58
21 Jan 21:34 *
30 Jan 02:02
6 Feb 07:37 *
12 Feb 23:15 *
20 Feb 15:32
28 Feb 20:08
7 Mar 18:19 *
14 Mar 10:11
22 Mar 09:58
30 Mar 10:21 *
6 Apr 03:33
12 Apr 23:13
21 Apr 03:13
28 Apr 20:46 *
5 May 11:46 *
12 May 14:20 *
20 May 18:16 *
28 May 04:01
3 Jun 19:53
11 Jun 06:59
19 Jun 06:57
26 Jun 09:09
3 Jul 04:59
11 Jul 00:19 *
18 Jul 17:42 *
25 Jul 13:31
1 Aug 16:06
9 Aug 17:28
17 Aug 03:07
23 Aug 18:40 *
31 Aug 05:45 *
8 Sep 09:49
15 Sep 11:50
22 Sep 02:10
29 Sep 21:47
8 Oct 00:52
14 Oct 20:32
21 Oct 13:19 *
29 Oct 15:27
6 Nov 14:11
13 Nov 05:51
20 Nov 04:44 *
28 Nov 09:41 *
6 Dec 01:26 *
12 Dec 16:30
19 Dec 23:55
28 Dec 03:20 *
1990
4 Jan 10:40 *
11 Jan 04:57
18 Jan 21:17
26 Jan 19:20 *
2 Feb 18:33
9 Feb 19:16 *
17 Feb 18:48
25 Feb 08:54
4 Mar 02:05
11 Mar 10:59
19 Mar 14:30
26 Mar 19:48
2 Apr 10:24 *
10 Apr 03:18 *
18 Apr 07:03
25 Apr 04:27
1 May 20:18 *
9 May 19:31
17 May 19:45 *
24 May 11:47 *
31 May 08:11
8 Jun 11:01
16 Jun 04:48
22 Jun 18:55
29 Jun 22:07
8 Jul 01:23 *
15 Jul 11:04
22 Jul 02:54
29 Jul 14:01
6 Aug 14:19 *
13 Aug 15:54
20 Aug 12:39 *
28 Aug 07:34 *
5 Sep 01:46 *
11 Sep 20:53
19 Sep 00:46
27 Sep 02:05
4 Oct 12:02
11 Oct 03:31
18 Oct 15:37 *
26 Oct 20:26 *
2 Nov 21:48
9 Nov 13:02
17 Nov 09:04
25 Nov 13:11
2 Dec 07:50
9 Dec 02:04
17 Dec 04:22 *
25 Dec 03:16 *
31 Dec 18:35 *
1991
7 Jan 18:36 *
15 Jan 23:50
23 Jan 14:22 *
30 Jan 06:10
6 Feb 13:52
14 Feb 17:32
21 Feb 22:58
28 Feb 18:25 *
8 Mar 10:32
16 Mar 08:11
23 Mar 06:03
30 Mar 07:17 *
7 Apr 06:45 *
14 Apr 19:38 *
21 Apr 12:39 *
28 Apr 20:58
7 May 00:46 *
14 May 04:36 *
20 May 19:46 *
28 May 11:37 *
5 Jun 15:30
12 Jun 12:06
19 Jun 04:19 *
27 Jun 02:58
5 Jul 02:50
11 Jul 19:06
18 Jul 15:11
26 Jul 18:24 *
3 Aug 11:26 *
10 Aug 02:28
17 Aug 05:01
25 Aug 09:07
1 Sep 18:16 *
8 Sep 11:01
15 Sep 22:01
23 Sep 22:40 *
1 Oct 00:30
7 Oct 21:39 *
15 Oct 17:33
23 Oct 11:08
30 Oct 07:11
6 Nov 11:11
14 Nov 14:01
21 Nov 22:56
28 Nov 15:21 *
6 Dec 03:56
14 Dec 09:32
21 Dec 10:23 *
28 Dec 01:55
1992
4 Jan 23:09
13 Jan 02:32
19 Jan 21:28
26 Jan 15:27
3 Feb 19:00
11 Feb 16:15 *
18 Feb 08:04
25 Feb 07:56
4 Mar 13:22 *
12 Mar 02:36
18 Mar 18:18 *
26 Mar 02:30
3 Apr 05:02
10 Apr 10:06
17 Apr 04:42 *
24 Apr 21:40 *
2 May 17:44 *
9 May 15:44 *
16 May 16:03
24 May 15:53
1 Jun 03:57
7 Jun 20:47 *
15 Jun 04:50
23 Jun 08:11
30 Jun 12:18 *
7 Jul 02:43 *
14 Jul 19:06
22 Jul 22:12
29 Jul 19:35 *
5 Aug 10:59
13 Aug 10:27
21 Aug 10:01
28 Aug 02:42 *
3 Sep 22:39 *
12 Sep 02:17 *
19 Sep 19:53
26 Sep 10:40 *
3 Oct 14:12
11 Oct 18:03
19 Oct 04:12
25 Oct 20:34 *
2 Nov 09:11
10 Nov 09:20 *
17 Nov 11:39 *
24 Nov 09:11
2 Dec 06:17 *
9 Dec 23:41 *
16 Dec 19:13
24 Dec 00:43 *
1993
1 Jan 03:38 *
8 Jan 12:37 *
15 Jan 04:01
22 Jan 18:27
30 Jan 23:20 *
6 Feb 23:55
13 Feb 14:57
21 Feb 13:05
1 Mar 15:47 *
8 Mar 09:46 *
15 Mar 04:16 *
23 Mar 07:14 *
31 Mar 04:10
6 Apr 18:43 *
13 Apr 19:39 *
21 Apr 23:49 *
29 Apr 12:41 *
6 May 03:34 *
13 May 12:20 *
21 May 14:07
28 May 18:21 *
4 Jun 13:02
12 Jun 05:36 *
20 Jun 01:52
26 Jun 22:43 *
3 Jul 23:45 *
11 Jul 22:49 *
19 Jul 11:24 *
26 Jul 03:25 *
2 Aug 12:10
10 Aug 15:19 *
17 Aug 19:28
24 Aug 09:57
1 Sep 02:33
9 Sep 06:26 *
16 Sep 03:10
22 Sep 19:32
30 Sep 18:54
8 Oct 19:35 *
15 Oct 11:36 *
22 Oct 08:52
30 Oct 12:38 *
7 Nov 06:36 *
13 Nov 21:34 *
21 Nov 02:03
29 Nov 06:31
6 Dec 15:49
13 Dec 09:27
20 Dec 22:26 *
28 Dec 23:05
1994
5 Jan 00:01
11 Jan 23:10
19 Jan 20:27
27 Jan 13:23 *
3 Feb 08:06
10 Feb 14:30
18 Feb 17:47 *
26 Feb 01:15 *
4 Mar 16:53
12 Mar 07:05
20 Mar 12:15 *
27 Mar 11:09
3 Apr 02:55
11 Apr 00:17 *
19 Apr 02:34 *
25 Apr 19:45 *
2 May 14:32
10 May 17:07
18 May 12:50
25 May 03:39 *
1 Jun 04:02
9 Jun 08:27 *
16 Jun 19:57
23 Jun 11:33
30 Jun 19:31
8 Jul 21:37
16 Jul 01:12
22 Jul 20:16 *
30 Jul 12:40 *
7 Aug 08:45 *
14 Aug 05:57
21 Aug 06:47
29 Aug 06:41 *
5 Sep 18:33
12 Sep 11:34 *
19 Sep 20:00
28 Sep 00:23 *
5 Oct 03:55
11 Oct 19:17 *
19 Oct 12:18 *
27 Oct 16:44 *
3 Nov 13:36 *
10 Nov 06:14
18 Nov 06:57
26 Nov 07:04
2 Dec 23:54
9 Dec 21:06
18 Dec 02:17 *
25 Dec 19:07
1995
1 Jan 10:56
8 Jan 15:46 *
16 Jan 20:26 *
24 Jan 04:58
30 Jan 22:48
7 Feb 12:54
15 Feb 12:15 *
22 Feb 13:04
1 Mar 11:48
9 Mar 10:14 *
17 Mar 01:26 *
23 Mar 20:10
31 Mar 02:09
8 Apr 05:35 *
15 Apr 12:08
22 Apr 03:18 *
29 Apr 17:36 *
7 May 21:44 *
14 May 20:48 *
21 May 11:36 *
29 May 09:27 *
6 Jun 10:26 *
13 Jun 04:03
19 Jun 22:01
28 Jun 00:50
5 Jul 20:02
12 Jul 10:49
19 Jul 11:10
27 Jul 15:13
4 Aug 03:16 *
10 Aug 18:15 *
18 Aug 03:04
26 Aug 04:31
2 Sep 09:03
9 Sep 03:37 *
16 Sep 21:10
24 Sep 16:55
1 Oct 14:36 *
8 Oct 15:52
16 Oct 16:26 *
24 Oct 04:36 *
30 Oct 21:17 *
7 Nov 07:21 *
15 Nov 11:40 *
22 Nov 15:43 *
29 Nov 06:28 *
7 Dec 01:27 *
15 Dec 05:31 *
22 Dec 02:22 *
28 Dec 19:07
5. Permutations.
I went a bit over the top with the awkward ones. I have marked each I
saw, with an asterisk. But I intended to just note where the phase that
lay within 5 minutes of the "20 to, 20 past, rule".
Once I noticed a few "quarter pasts" and even "14 minutes
pasts" creeping, in I started adding them all; especially where they
sit in among a series of more closely matching phases.
In the end, I even included this one: 15 Dec 05:31 *
I know that that spell is an anticyclone from recent experience. It is
a weak effort though. Actually it might be quite a strong one but the
one we experienced recently (providing and Atlantic high that sat a few
degrees to the SW of Britain most of the week) followed a series of wet
spells. So there was some synergy [6] to overcome.
The problem with this categorising of spells problem is that you have
to live through them AND be paying attention at the time of them; AS
WELL AS making sure there is no weighting of the system by hurricanes
and earthquakes and etc.
That's after you guess what might be going on.
So how many possible permutations might there be?
It's greater than you think.
I go by the rule (of thumb) that ten minutes to the hour is the same as
ten minutes past the hour and that both are as near as damn is to
swearing that they are the same as those phases that fall exactly on
the hour.
And that's without paying any attention to the equation of time. [7]
6. Synergy is where a series of similar phases run consecutively so
that the harmonic of the whole is greater than the action the
individual parts. The one following the recent experience, the spell we
are still in at the moment, is quite a strong one, aided in part from
the start it got (the synergy effect) from the previous phase: [If I
can't find the lastt edition of this opus, I shall take serious steps
to find a more stable operating system and ISP.]
7. The equation of time is the difference between what your watch,
computer or radio says it is and what the sun says it is, based on a
little man with a bell, at Greenwich. (As was. It's probably a little
man with an atom, based at Cambridge, these days.)
All ancient history now but it might be interesting to hardened
Weatherlawyer fans.
I apologise for taking the wind out of the sails of the two research
groups I based the start of this study on. They did a sterling job. And
without them pointing out the things they pointed out, I would never
have bothered. Which is to say that any feet I tread on, with my weird
ideas, are the feet of giants. And capable of carrying the knowledge
base of mankind, for mankind.
Proven, in fact, not denigrated as it might seem. I did not find their
work interesting. I found it fascinating.
This effort at decoding the geophysics of the planet couldn't have
happened WOULDN'T have happened without the effort and beneficence of
the United States of America to whom I am deeply grateful (despite the
things I have been saying about the chimpanzee they voted for.)
I can't single out any individuals for praise as there are so many
and no few of them are unknown to me. One name that does stick in my
mind and who I would like to thank most sincerely s Fred Espenack, the
bloke in charge f the NOAA agency who supplied my most useful tool the
lunar phases.
Thanks Fred I am really grateful. You don't know me. I would never
have got anywhere without you. And I am sure the same can be said for
an whole raft of USAns from Samuel Langhorn Clements to whoever had an
hand in writing anything in the US government related sites.
My deepest gratitude to you all. And not a few bods in other countries
of course. The Met Office for instance. And even the plonkers in the
BBC. I am sure you would all love to get rid of Andrew Lane and his
toadies but even then..
Still, your help was immeasurable at first. Pity it went pear shaped.
PS.
One last thing about the format.
I wrote this in Microsoft Word. It seems to have added to odd words
(some that I have made up) with suggestions of its own -that got added
unasked. Since I am very much of the two fingered typing persuasion,
they probably got through; except for the two or three I spotted after
proof reading. I never even knew it was happening until just now.
So what you are reading is a mishmash of my own quirky style, my
attempt to force an United States of American version of a programme
that just won't adapt for me and this idiosyncratic form filling
agency that it contains.
I would have continued with Open Office whose worthy aims I laud but I
am more familiar with the easier Edit commands in Word. If I ever get
my teeth back into writer, they will have done something about the
overall geekishness of the formatting and I will have learned how to
use Macros.
IOW: It will never happen.
If you want to check out the statistical occurrences of these awkward
phases and correlate them with massive volcanic eruptions (or winners
of the Derby for that matter) I am going put them all on file for my
next project. It is easier to use the edit command "Find and
Replace" to remove the asterisks than it is (I imagine) to find the
rogue phases and mark them.
Pity I am not by nature a careful man.
Any and all criticism is welcome. If it is just childish ranting please
mark the fact in the title so I can bin it unopened. If you disagree
then for goodness sake make some attempt to understand my reasoning,
however lacking you find it, before you open your ignorant mush.
If you intend to have a go at anything I point out:
Good luck.
Mike.