Prediction Markets Google Group

Economist: The crowd within

vega.l...@gmail.com — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 16:33:53 UT

Is there any research on whether an individual's subsequent PM bets
turn out to be more/less accurate than her initial position?

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[link]

The crowd within
Jun 26th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Mercury's Blog

sarah.jo...@valuenetworks.com (Sarah V. Jones) — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 12:48:24 UT

HYPERLINK "[link]"Mercury's Blog

HYPERLINK "[link]"CFTC & Prediction markets - What I’m sending and what to expect
Posted: 30 Jun 2008 03:08 PM CDT
This will be my last post on the CFTC and prediction markets.
Thank you to those who e-mailed me with comments and left comments on my posts. As I hoped, it helped clarify my own thinking, particularly on how public event markets can and should work. While I still believe that the CFTC should make public, real-money event markets work, the reality that this will need strong regulation from the CFTC is reflected in my draft response. My final draft is attached below, and will be submitted to the CFTC later this week.

Re: Unexplored prediction market research topics

sveinung.arne...@isp.uib.no (S. Arnesen) — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 18:29:41 UT

Ok, I see. So then for each election a pair of wta and vote share
market could identify the confidence band for that particular
election, but cannot be generalized to other elections?

Does that mean that one could identify the number of swing voters in
an election (as perceived by the traders), and perhaps compare more

Re: Unexplored prediction market research topics

penno...@yahoo-inc.com (David Pennock) — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 16:20:12 UT

If I understand correctly, even in a politically divided country, the
vote share error might still be normally distributed, but narrow (small
variance).

Re: Unexplored prediction market research topics

sveinung.arne...@isp.uib.no (S. Arnesen) — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:14:17 UT

Hi, my name is Sveinung Arnesen, and my interest in prediction markets
is mainly in association with those set up for political elections.

I have read the Berg et al (2003) paper, and I have some questions
regarding the Implied Volatility Model for creating a confidence band
for the vote share. Isn't it a stretch to assume that the expectations

Mercury's Blog (Part 4/5 of 5)

sarah.jo...@valuenetworks.com (Sarah V. Jones) — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 17:31:54 UT

HYPERLINK "[link]"Prediction Markets in the US & the CFTC — Making it all work (Part 4 of 5)
Posted: 24 Jun 2008 06:10 AM CDT
This is part 4 in a five-part series where I present first drafts of what I intend to send to the CFTC in response to their request for input on prediction markets or “event markets.” HYPERLINK "[link]"More background can be found in my first post here.

RE: Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism

acosta...@hsx.com (Costakis, Alex) — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 20:10:15 UT

Regarding the comment that event markets being relatively thin and
traceable will reveal a trader's identification, and by nature of their
trading, intent, that's exactly right. With that being said, why should
set a limitation on trading these type of events when we all know the
gathering of as much information (intelligence) is so critical to avoid

Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism

tb...@chapman.edu (Bell, Tom W.) — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 19:15:11 UT

The recent posting here of Jed Christiansen's draft answers to the CFTC's request for comments inspired me to offer an alternative answer to question 14. Please see <[link]> or <[link]> for the full blog posts, complete with working links. Here's the text:

Re: Prediction Markets in Foresight or Futures Studies

kristoffer.hart...@gmail.com (Kristoffer Thomas Hartwig) — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 16:46:03 UT

Dear Walter

Actually, part of my thesis -which basically researches the
theoretical and practical linkages between contemporary innovation
strategy and the use of PM's in corporations and between stakeholders
- is going to be on strategic forecasting.

I've found literature on strategic forecasting and scenarioplanning,

Mercury's Blog (Part 3 of 5)

sarah.jo...@valuenetworks.com (Sarah V. Jones) — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 13:48:56 UT

HYPERLINK "[link]"Mercury's Blog

HYPERLINK "[link]"Prediction Markets in the US & the CFTC — Making it all work (Part 3 of 5)
Posted: 20 Jun 2008 05:39 AM CDT
This is part 3 in a five-part series where I present first drafts of what I intend to send to the CFTC in response to their request for input on prediction markets or “event markets.” HYPERLINK "[link]"More background can be found in my first post here.

Fw: [mendenyo] best 5 month report on future capitalism I/you can find?

benoit...@yahoo.com (Benoit Couture) — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 09:07:55 UT

Here's comes the tide of global paradigm shift...

Benoit
To: yunus_discussion@googlegroups. com, mende...@yahoogroups.com
if there is a better 5 month report please tell us so we can swap it at [link] orhumanity. com

Commencement address by Muhammad Yunus
"Each of you has the power to change the world"

Mercury's Blog (Part 2 of 5)

sarah.jo...@valuenetworks.com (Sarah V. Jones) — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 17:09:19 UT

HYPERLINK "[link]"Mercury's Blog

HYPERLINK "[link]"Prediction Markets in the US & the CFTC — Making it all work (Part 2 of 5)
Posted: 17 Jun 2008 07:00 AM CDT
This is part 2 in a five-part series where I present first drafts of what I intend to send to the CFTC in response to their request for input on prediction markets or “event markets.” HYPERLINK "[link]"More background can be found in my first post here.

Mercury's Blog

sarah.jo...@valuenetworks.com (Sarah V. Jones) — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 14:55:51 UT

HYPERLINK "[link]"Mercury's Blog

HYPERLINK "[link]"Prediction Markets in the US & the CFTC — Making it all work (Part 1 of 5)
Posted: 16 Jun 2008 02:52 AM CDT
I believe that the HYPERLINK "[link]"recent request for input by the CFTC is an important opportunity in the overall development of prediction markets. Right now very few responses have been made (HYPERLINK "[link]"see them all here), and the deadline is Monday, July 7th. I highly encourage everyone all of my readers to seriously consider submitting their responses to the CFTC questions.

Re: Unexplored prediction market research topics

vega.l...@gmail.com (Lucy Vega) — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:15:31 UT

Adding to the list...
For public markets that rely on fees for income (Intrade, Betfair, et al),
what fee structure best balances these values:
1) Easy to understand
2) Perceived as fair and reasonable
3) Maximizes fee income
4) Minimizes price distortion (e.g., Intrade's crazy prices on anything in

Re: Unexplored prediction market research topics

penno...@yahoo-inc.com (David Pennock) — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 11:53:00 UT

Great questions.
Berg, JE, FD Nelson and TA Rietz, (2003) “Accuracy and Forecast Standard
Error of Prediction Markets,” Working Paper, Tippie College of Business.
[link]