Does anyone have any good pointers to learnings from the corporate use of PMs? I am about to set up a series of markets within my company (big entertainment software company). Particularly value thoughts on incentive systems, best way of introducing the idea and the tradeoff between fun and serious types of bets.
** Incentives: participation will be driven by three factors, we call them the three R's: Rewards (of the material kind), Recognition (within a community of co-workers) , Relevance (of the topics being traded). If any one of those elements is lacking, you have to boost the other two to make up for it.
** Introducing the idea: The more top-level senior-exec buy-in you can secure, the better. That is tightly related to the "Recognition" factor. Traders must feel that the company cares about their performance and that they'll get recognized by the powers that be if they take the markets seriously, as part of their job.
**serious vs fun tradeoff: That's tightly related to the "Relevance" factor. Traders have to care, personally, about the topics being traded. The ideal is when there is no distinction between serious and fun. If you're going to ask "serious" questions, make sure they are the ones that people really care about, i.e., the important questions, the ones that cut to the bone of the company. And if you're going to add some "fun" questions, make sure that they are related to the job, otherwise your market will just look like a game you should not spend your time on during work hours.
Good luck, and keep us posted about your progress.
--Emile NewsFutures
On 11/29/06, matthewfog <matthew...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Does anyone have any good pointers to learnings from the corporate use > of PMs? I am about to set up a series of markets within my company > (big entertainment software company). Particularly value thoughts on > incentive systems, best way of introducing the idea and the tradeoff > between fun and serious types of bets.
Matthew - use of prediction markets for assessing entertainment related applications is a natural fit. Be sure to customize the market as much as possible to the orientation of your entertainment product(s) - both in terms of the market's core functionality and the user-experience (e.g. incentives, serious/fun).
From our perspective (Hollywood Stock Exchange), we have found markets used for product development initiatives in music vs movies vs television/cable vs video gaming, all behave very differently. Don't try a one-size fits all solution for each specialized business area.
[mailto:Prediction-Markets@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of matthewfog Sent: Tuesday, November 28, 2006 10:55 PM To: Prediction Markets Subject: Using PM inside corporations
Does anyone have any good pointers to learnings from the corporate use of PMs? I am about to set up a series of markets within my company (big entertainment software company). Particularly value thoughts on incentive systems, best way of introducing the idea and the tradeoff between fun and serious types of bets.
Join us for a public "how to" session on prediction markets moderated by James Surowiecki, New Yorker columnist and best-selling author of "The Wisdom of Crowds". Speakers from Google, HP, Microsoft, and Yahoo! will describe how they are using prediction markets to aid corporate forecasting and decision making. Other speakers include the developer of Zocalo, an open source prediction market platform; the co-founder of InklingMarkets.com, a Paul Graham yCombinator startup; and Robin Hanson, the visionary economist and inventor whose pioneering work paved the way. The event is open to the public and will emphasize practical lessons and hands-on advice. After brief presentations from each speaker, Surowiecki will open up the session for discussion with the audience.
confab.yahoo is Yahoo! TechDev’s new open microconference series. Join academic and industry experts from across the valley and the country as they discuss the latest technologies and their applications and see for yourself what’s next on the web. Attendance is free and open to the public.
[mailto:Prediction-Markets@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of David Pennock Sent: Wednesday, November 29, 2006 1:19 PM To: Prediction-Markets@googlegroups.com Subject: confab.yahoo on prediction markets: Sunnyvale, Dec 13 5:30p
I'm happy to announce the following public event:
confab.yahoo on Prediction markets: Tapping the wisdom of crowds
5:30-8:00pm Wed Dec 13, 2006 Yahoo! Headquarters, Building C, Classroom 5 701 First Avenue, Sunnyvale, CA 94089 USA
Join us for a public "how to" session on prediction markets moderated by James Surowiecki, New Yorker columnist and best-selling author of "The Wisdom of Crowds". Speakers from Google, HP, Microsoft, and Yahoo! will describe how they are using prediction markets to aid corporate forecasting and decision making. Other speakers include the developer of Zocalo, an open source prediction market platform; the co-founder of InklingMarkets.com, a Paul Graham yCombinator startup; and Robin Hanson, the visionary economist and inventor whose pioneering work paved the way. The event is open to the public and will emphasize practical lessons and hands-on advice. After brief presentations from each speaker, Surowiecki will open up the session for discussion with the audience.
confab.yahoo is Yahoo! TechDev's new open microconference series. Join academic and industry experts from across the valley and the country as they discuss the latest technologies and their applications and see for yourself what's next on the web. Attendance is free and open to the public.
Thank you for the announcement. Purely by coincidence, I'll be in San Jose then and I look forward to attending, learning, and meeting as many people from this list as possible.
> -----Original Message----- > From: Prediction-Markets@googlegroups.com > [mailto:Prediction-Markets@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of > David Pennock > Sent: Wednesday, November 29, 2006 3:19 PM > To: Prediction-Markets@googlegroups.com > Subject: confab.yahoo on prediction markets: Sunnyvale, Dec 13 5:30p
> I'm happy to announce the following public event:
> confab.yahoo on > Prediction markets: Tapping the wisdom of crowds
> 5:30-8:00pm Wed Dec 13, 2006 > Yahoo! Headquarters, Building C, Classroom 5 > 701 First Avenue, Sunnyvale, CA 94089 USA
> Join us for a public "how to" session on prediction markets > moderated by James Surowiecki, New Yorker columnist and > best-selling author of "The Wisdom of Crowds". Speakers from > Google, HP, Microsoft, and Yahoo! will describe how they are > using prediction markets to aid corporate forecasting and > decision making. Other speakers include the developer of > Zocalo, an open source prediction market platform; the > co-founder of InklingMarkets.com, a Paul Graham yCombinator > startup; and Robin Hanson, the visionary economist and > inventor whose pioneering work paved the way. The event is > open to the public and will emphasize practical lessons and > hands-on advice. After brief presentations from each speaker, > Surowiecki will open up the session for discussion with the audience.
> confab.yahoo is Yahoo! TechDev's new open microconference > series. Join academic and industry experts from across the > valley and the country as they discuss the latest > technologies and their applications and see for yourself > what's next on the web. Attendance is free and open to the public.
