TEN north korean contract
sftweeindieguy
involved with the North Korean test missile contract controversy.
There's been some sympathy for TS because they it bad contract rules
and are stuck with them. But from what I was told there has been a
statement made by the White House that the missiles went a few hundred
miles and a posting on a DOD public inquiry site that the White House
comments stand. The problem now is that tradesports doesn't understand
what Stephen Hadley said in the White House statement. He said that
the missiles went out "about 275 miles, something like that." But TS
is calling that too vague. Was Hadley supposed to give the latitude
and longitude of all 7 test missiles? I think TS needs to be pushed on
this.
Chris Hibbert
> involved with the North Korean test missile contract controversy.
> There's been some sympathy for TS because they it bad contract rules
> and are stuck with them.
They had clear rules that didn't say what you thought they said. I
might call them "unclear", but not "bad".
> But from what I was told there has been a statement made by the White
> House that the missiles went a few hundred miles and a posting on a
> DOD public inquiry site that the White House comments stand. The
> problem now is that tradesports doesn't understand what Stephen
> Hadley said in the White House statement. He said that the missiles
> went out "about 275 miles, something like that." But TS is calling
> that too vague.
Did DoD give the starting points? Do you have independent DoD
confirmation of the launch sites? Why not show that to TS and see
whether that clarifies it for them. Have you tried to convince TS that
no matter what direction they went, 275 miles (plus or minus 25) would
put them outside NK waters?
Everyone expected the missiles to pass Japan, in which case any
plausible descriptions would have been sufficient. But the missiles
were far short of that, so they didn't meet the judging criteria. It's
just like an athletic contest; it isn't sufficient to play better than
your opponent, you have to play enough better than your opponent that
the inevitable refereeing errors don't make a difference. Otherwise the
outcome is up to chance.
TS chose judging criteria that were tight enough to make the difference
when the missiles didn't go as far as expected.
Chris
--
Chris Hibbert
(650)289-4054 until July 31, then (650)968-6319
Principal Investigator, Prediction Markets
ch...@commerce.net
http://zocalo.sourceforge.net/
sftweeindieguy
"foul." In this case, TS chose an umpire that has no incentive to
issue a clear ruling either way and in fact is highly disciplined in
not revealing any information it doesn't need to. So I would say that
the contract rule that requires specific DOD confirmation for expiry is
a bad one.
The DOD does not mention the launching point but the White House press
briefing specifically does. The launching points were on the North
Korean coast on the Sea of Japan. Stephen Hadley did not say that the
missiles went 275 miles up, or along the coast, he said they went 275
out. The judging criteria is whether the missiles went beyond 12
miles.
TS has not addressed this point to my knowledge.