Prediction Market Industry Association is born
Emile Servan-Schreiber
PREDICTION MARKET INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION IS BORN
Industry and thought leaders join forces to help promote and grow the field of prediction markets.
London (Oct 22 2007) - The recent Prediction Market Summit held in London, UK, concluded with the creation of an international industry association tasked with promoting awareness, education and validation for the rapidly growing field.
Participants at the summit reflected the rich international and dynamic texture of the field, including veteran industry leaders such as Hollywood Stock Exchange (US), Intrade (IRL), NewsFutures (US), and Pro:kons (AU), as well as newer entrants such as Gexid (DE), Mercury (UK), Nosco (DK) and Xpree (US). Also present were many members of the international academic community from institutions in the UK, Scandinavia, Germany, Ireland, and Japan, as well as representatives of Schlumberger, Microsoft, Nokia and other companies using or considering the use of prediction markets in the operation of their business.
The Prediction Market Industry Association ("PMIA") will focus on
initiatives that can benefit all stake-holders while not hampering the
healthy competition and rapid innovation that characterizes the field.
Concretely, its first priorities are to:
1) Create a central, standardized registry of available prediction stocks and contracts from different prediction markets.
This open central resource will help demonstrate the wide coverage of
available predictions, facilitate search, and make prediction market
data more easily available to researchers, the media, and the public at
large. Participation will be entirely voluntary, and the program will
leave each publisher in complete control of the commercial terms for
accessing its data.
2) Offer a directory of its members, a library of core readings, and other such resources enabling newcomers to quickly learn about the field and find their way among the various worldwide offerings.
3) Provide a consensual venue for sharing industry-relevant
information and announcements, and organize regular meetings of the
industry to discuss common opportunities.
4) Lobby for a clear legal and regulatory environment conducive to the productive adoption of prediction markets by individuals, firms, and governments, and ensuring free access to these markets by traders.
To lead the collective effort on these initiatives, the summit participants chose a five member board of directors: three from industry and two from academia. Participants immediately came to consensus on the two academic members. The three industry board members, however, were elected in a secret ballot where voters could nominate any industry player whether present at the meeting or not. The PMIA's first board is comprised of:
Emile Servan-Schreiber (NewsFutures) - Chairman
Jed Christiansen (Mercury Research & Consulting) - Treasurer
John Delaney (Intrade)
Robin Hanson (George Mason University)
Justin Wolfers (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)
The board's first task will be to establish the association's bylaws, which will naturally include provisions for the regular rotation of the members of the board. A first draft will be published within the next two weeks and will be open to comment by all interested parties.
As it pursues the PMIA's collective benefit agenda, the board looks forward to drawing heavily from the prediction market community's extraordinarily rich and diverse pool of talent and experience. Comments, suggestions, and offers to help are most welcome. (We thank our friends at Nosco for graciously designing the association's logo.)
As of today, the Prediction-Markets Google Group becomes the official
discussion venue of the association. (Thanks to John Maloney for
turning over the keys of this valuable resource.) This discussion group
will act as the de facto virtual home of the association while the association's website is in construction at
http://www.pmindustry.org.
In recognition of the inspiration provided by the river Thames, on the banks of which it was born, and the fact that London is both the financial capital of the world and a historical bridge between the United States and Europe, where most of the activity in the field currently takes place, the PMIA board has chosen this city as its physical home.
###
For additional information contact:
Emile Servan-Schreiber T:
+1 (443) 321-2700
E: ej...@newsfutures.com
Jed Christiansen T:
+44 796 358 3663
E: jed.chri...@mercury-rac.com
John Delaney T:
+353 1 6200 300
E: john.d...@intrade.com
Robin Hanson E: rha...@gmu.edu
Justin Wolfers E: jwol...@wharton.upenn.edu
John T. Maloney (Skype: jheuristic)
Hi –
Sounds great!
It would be good to find a couple users/practitioners for the PMIA BoD. They would be from some of the big enterprise users, media outlets, govt, NGOs, etc. They would add a lot of balance to the already very strong board.
It is important to adopt an ecosystem approach to advance the threshold model of collective behavior for PMs. The PMIA is an important new organism in the PM value network - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_network
Note: The (first?) Asia/Pacific PM event is in Hong Kong next month -- http://kmblogs.com/public/item/186587
Cordially,
-j
Bo Cowgill
If the association seems like a mechanism for promoting Intrade, NewsFutures or Jed Christiansen's career at the expense of competitors, I predict your legitimacy will come under extremely harsh critique.
Bo
John Delaney, CEO, Intrade.com
Shame you could not make it to the London event.
It was a good one.
Had you been there I think your concern, a very valid concern, would
be lessened or totally non existent.
If the PMIA (a group that I recommended we *all* set up as long ago as
at the NYC PM event where I first met you) does become a mechanism for
promoting any entity at the expense of competition I will be at to
forefront of the "extremely harsh critique" crowd.
John
Costakis, Alex
I don’t see this initiative or the appointment of the initial board members as a mechanism for promoting specific platforms.
By nature of InTrade being the largest real-money prediction market worldwide and NewsFutures being on the front-line of establishing a public prediction market through their media initiative with USA Today, I view both as practitioners with years of experience all of which is valuable to the industry on whole. Though both companies do operate as platform providers, within a new industry like this, there’s bound to be crossover in terms of business focus. I also view Jed’s contribution as neutral and one with dedication and energy.
This will be a multi-phased process with flexibility for adjustment and collective contribution. I believe the time has come for an association and I’m glad to see the ball rolling.
Alex -
Oliver Bernhard Pedersen
Byrne Hobart
>
> Maybe the board members should only appear by name and not by company??
I don't think you can design an industry association that doesn't
eventually work to exclude newcomers and benefit senior members. If
it's going to have any power at all, the PMIA will have the power to
protect major participants' market share, and since those participants
will have the best lobbying leverage, that's about what will happen.
But it might not get that bad for a while.
John T. Maloney (Skype: jheuristic)
Hi Bo –
Industry Associations, per se, are usually not vendor neutral, even if they say they are. There is nothing wrong with that well-established, effective development model. A rising tide lifts all boats. If members put time and resources into vendor-specific transorganizational PM collaboration, they will gain considerable marketplace advantages, even w/o being neutral. The PMIA is simply another role, and an important one, in the emergent PM ecosystem.
All PM stakeholders should join and be active in the PMIA!
Remember, the PM Clusters (http://www.pmcluster.com/ ) are 100% vendor agnostic, open, non-commercial, consultant-free. The PM Cluster’s governance originates from the network only. Sponsors, participants and stakeholders own their events by serving their PM value network. This is a widespread and popular model. (See its 10yo charter below.)
Cluster Charter (1997):
"Clusters are fluid, organic, rhythmic collaboration and open action/research networks. They are ad hoc, spontaneous and proximate conversation. Clusters are 100% led by participants. Colonizing themes in a day-long conversation is your only modality. A Cluster is not a conference. It is not a seminar, training, forum or trade event. It is not a professional organization, framework vendor or consultancy. There are no boards, committees, advisors or certifications. We do not compete and are vendor agnostic. Regional sponsors vary from quarter to quarter. Governance originates from the network only. Above all, Clusters have the highest standards for venues, speakers, meals, participants and thought leadership. The modest participant sponsorship nourishes the network and provides sustainability, independence, rhythm and continuity." More here ::
http://www.kmcluster.com/about_the_km_cluster.htm
For example, concerning the cluster discussion groups, like this one, they have many managers, many owners. Users self-organize. The outcome is emergent networks and new nodal roles like the PMIA. It is natural and organic value network emergence. You may brush-up here:
http://kmblogs.com/public/item/181809
Anyway, there is a simple heuristic to divine the values of almost any org: follow the money. To really get going the PMIA will need cash sponsors. If an ad agency like Google is a backer, then maybe there should be some expectations of neutrality. Baring that, there should be a fair and legitimate expectation that the PMIA exists solely for the good of its members. Nothing wrong with that. In fact, it is really important!
Meanwhile, the PM Cluster networks remain open, federated, distributed, agnostic, non-commercial, transparent, and… at your service!
Cordially,
-j
IM/Skype: jheuristic
Blog: http://kmblogs.com/
ID: http://xri.net/=jheuristic
From: Predictio...@googlegroups.com [mailto:Predictio...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Bo Cowgill
Sent: Monday, October 22, 2007 12:03 PM
To: Predictio...@googlegroups.com
Emile Servan-Schreiber
--Emile
Emile Servan-Schreiber
CEO, NewsFutures Inc.
http://www.newsfutures.com
Tel US: +1 (443) 321-2700
Tel EU: +336 1804 3404
Fax: +1 (978) 383-1065
Email: ej...@newsfutures.com
*** THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF NEWSFUTURES, INC. ***
Bo Cowgill
Bo, contrary to what you assert, the PMIA press release is quite specific about the "neutrality" of the association's purpose. I quote: "The Prediction Market Industry Association ("PMIA") will focus on initiatives that can benefit all stake-holders while not hampering the healthy competition and rapid innovation that characterizes the field." So there's nothing for Google to be worried about.
Something a bit more explicit would have been better, but I'm glad you included that line. I didn't see it before. Hopefully this spirit will be reflected in whatever comes after your press release. Forgive me if you perceive a bit of skepticism, but competition in this industry is quite cutthroat and the various consultants and vendors can be extremely shrill out each other behind each other's backs -- in a way that makes me doubt their ability to put marketplace rivalry aside for a larger collection of stakeholders. But I hope to be surprised and want this effort to succeed.
As for donating money (per Maloney's email), I (and surely others) would be glad to consider any proposal once we have a better idea of how it will be used.
Bo
Jed Christiansen
> Something a bit more explicit would have been better, but I'm glad
> you included that line. I didn't see it before. Hopefully this
> spirit will be reflected in whatever comes after your press
> release. Forgive me if you perceive a bit of skepticism, but
> competition in this industry is quite cutthroat and the various
> consultants and vendors can be extremely shrill out each other
> behind each other's backs -- in a way that makes me doubt their
> ability to put marketplace rivalry aside for a larger collection of
> stakeholders. But I hope to be surprised and want this effort to
> succeed.
Hi, Bo.
The conversation at the London conference did touch on this quite a
bit. How we really framed the issue was that the Prediction Market
Industry Association exists to "grow the pie" by creating a resource
on prediction markets for those of us in the industry, the academics
studying the industry, and the potential customers and consumers of
prediction markets. There will certainly always be competition
between consultants and vendors, but the PMIA will serve as a place
to band together as an industry where we can generate some common good.
I think it was particularly apt that it was kicked off at the London
conference, because participants got to see presentations from gexid,
Nosco and Pro:kons. All of these companies have been doing very
successful projects in non-English-speaking Europe. PMIA will be
able to evangelize their efforts, and the traditional US/UK audience
will see further great practical examples of prediction markets in
use. I think it's safe to say that everyone gains with successful
case studies.
Regards,
Jed
----------
Jed D. Christiansen
Managing Director
Mercury Research and Consulting Ltd
http://www.mercury-rac.com
---
jed.chri...@mercury-rac.com
+44 (0) 796 358 3663
http://blog.mercury-rac.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/jedchristiansen
---
oli...@nosco.dk
a rotating board.
We talked about replacing 2 board members every year. I guess that is
one of the issues the current board will be dealing with.
/oliver